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Ukraine War


BehoId, The Underminer!

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

 

It's a genuinely huge concern and as you both understand the biggest concern is that he does it if and when he's lost and he realizes it. It's obviously a losing play for Russia in the long run but the total casualties on both sides would be obviously tragic. He might think he can thread that needle but based on the coordinated response to this point I think his military leadership realizes that they are facing a World War level response if he deploys a nuke, tactical or otherwise. The problem being there's no guarantee that Putin will admit or understand that.

What is the read on China in that situation? I would think they have enough sense to completely abandon Putin if he does that. I don't see any form of axis forming around him if he nukes somebody.

China seems have the most to gain from the current situation, barring Russia doing something that makes them a total pariah state. CIPS as a SWIFT alternative. 

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Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

You think they haven’t? Seriously?

They haven't physically invaded, which is how you worded it. They've meddled in our internal politics. And we meddled in theirs leading up to collapse of the Soviet Union. The latter doesn't justify the former. But, it does put it into context. You can't straight face say NATO isn't a threat to Russia because it is defensive and never actually attacked, while not also recognizing that the same is true of Russia. Both sides have made aggressive moves towards each other, neither has outright attacked. 

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What's your end goal Shaddie? Like, 50 years from now, should we still be having the same nuclear stand off with Russia? Should we still have nuclear missiles pointed at each other constantly? Is there no room for maybe hoping for something different? 

Russia needs to change. But 70 years of nuclear tension has just led us back again to the precipice of global annihilation. Let's try something new. Short term, my plan maybe creates a window for some general to off Putin. Long term, maybe we can stop this stupid dance. 

Maybe 4-8 yrs of non authoritative rule? 
We have had Radio Free America broadcasting your message for at least 70 years if not longer. So far no luck. 

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That goes both ways. 
Look, I'm not saying disarm and ignore Russia. I'm saying tell the Russian people that we don't have to be enemies, in fact, we can be allies. All you have to do is get rid of this shit stain and then let's talk. Isn't that what we want? 

The Russian people know this. What they don’t know is how to kick the sons of bitches out.
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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Putin isn't wrong about one thing. We have a shit ton of missiles around his country and aimed at his country. And that hasn't changed despite the collapse of the Soviet Union. I get that we feel like we aren't going to just attack Russia. But that isn't how it feels to Russians. And they are justified in feeling that way. We need a way to breakthrough that. Again, what's our end game? Starting a dialogue where it becomes clear NATO doesn't exist to get Russia, and that a different Russia would be welcomed, is critical to avoiding catastrophe (sooner or later). 

We failed in the transition from post WWII stability to post cold war stability.  The NATO architects knew where this was going and how NATO expansion was going to play out in the long run after the fall of the USSR.  Status quo bozos want to act like was not a clear and to be expected outcome.  But they should be given some measure of leash because they live under western european centric delusions about what geopolitical stability looks like. 

Edited by Anastasis
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5 minutes ago, Nivek said:


The Russian people know this. What they don’t know is how to kick the sons of bitches out.

That may be true. But we've never really said it. And we continue to point nukes at them. I get why we do it. I'm just saying, were I Russian, I would need some convincing that this group doesn't hate me and want me dead. I'd like us to do more on the convincing them front. Any message that we can get out there that makes it more likely the Russians replace Putin on their own is a good one. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Just now, Dahobbs said:

That may be true. But we've never really said it. And we continue to point nukes at them. I get why we do it. I'm just saying, were I Russian, I would need some convincing that this group doesn't hate me and want me dead. I'd like us to do more on the convincing them front. 

ok, comrade, we get it. you love russia and hate nato. noted. we here ain't doing shit about it.

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1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

ok, comrade, we get it. you love russia and hate nato. noted. we here ain't doing shit about it.

I haven't said that at all. If that's all you've heard, then you got rocks in your ears. Russia has been bad. Russia under Putin has been really bad. NATO needed to be created. And we are totally right to ramp up the pressure right now. But, let's have an end goal that isn't everyone dead. To me, a stabilized Russia joining NATO, would be a big fat victory for everyone. So, I want a plan that leaves that open. Otherwise, I just don't see a way out of this cycle. 

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I haven't said that at all. If that's all you've heard, then you got rocks in your ears. Russia has been bad. Russia under Putin has been really bad. NATO needed to be created. And we are totally right to ramp up the pressure right now. But, let's have an end goal that isn't everyone dead. To me, a stabilized Russia joining NATO, would be a big fat victory for everyone. So, I want a plan that leaves that open. Otherwise, I just don't see a way out of this cycle. 

so is that Russia maintains authoritarian regimes because NATO exists or NATO exists because Russia maintains authoritarian regimes?

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I haven't said that at all. If that's all you've heard, then you got rocks in your ears. Russia has been bad. Russia under Putin has been really bad. NATO needed to be created. And we are totally right to ramp up the pressure right now. But, let's have an end goal that isn't everyone dead. To me, a stabilized Russia joining NATO, would be a big fat victory for everyone. So, I want a plan that leaves that open. Otherwise, I just don't see a way out of this cycle. 

I don't think that Russia should ever be offered NATO membership.  I am also not sure that the post WWII NATO mission is relevant in a post cold war world. NATO served its purpose. I think that its purpose post collapse of USSR has been muddled. 

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They haven't physically invaded, which is how you worded it. They've meddled in our internal politics. And we meddled in theirs leading up to collapse of the Soviet Union. The latter doesn't justify the former. But, it does put it into context. You can't straight face say NATO isn't a threat to Russia because it is defensive and never actually attacked, while not also recognizing that the same is true of Russia. Both sides have made aggressive moves towards each other, neither has outright attacked. 

2017 Wagner group with armor and Syrians (about 500 total) attacked 21 US Special Forces at a base and the Russians were skull fucked by our armed service men.
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7 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

ok, comrade, we get it. you love russia and hate nato. noted. we here ain't doing shit about it.

No. That is not what he is saying. 
Our argument is do we go straight to bed with Russia or make them at least buy us dinner 1st. 

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It's sort of uh, weird timing to be chiming in with hot takes like "NATO expansion led to this, not Putin".

Save the post-game analysis for post game.

Otherwise, it comes off like a wife-beater telling his wife "you made me do this!!!" as he punches her in the face.

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1 minute ago, SizzleChest said:

It's sort of uh, weird timing to be chiming in with hot takes like "NATO expansion led to this, not Putin".

Save the post-game analysis for post game.

You are not wrong. 

The time to litigate the policy failures that have brought us to this point is after Russian armed forces have had their shit kicked in and are marching back to their country in either shame or body bags. 

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Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so is that the Russia maintains authoritarian regimes because NATO exists or NATO exists because Russia maintains authoritarian regimes?

A little bit of both actually. It's a feedback loop of sorts. NATO was created out of an obvious concern for an aggressive and oppressive Soviet Union. But Russians are now also justified in fearing NATO. Their response to that fear has led them back to an authoritarian, antagonistic ruler. I also suspect there is something ingrained in Russia culture that causes them to want to be ruled.

At any rate, I'm not blaming Putin on NATO. I'm just looking for way to provide a carrot to the Russian people so that can replace Putin and not be led by fear to someone just like him.  

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

You are not wrong. 

The time to litigate the policy failures that have brought us to this point is after Russian armed forces have had their shit kicked in and are marching back to their country in either shame or body bags. 

Or when Assad gets his Sicilian necktie.

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7 minutes ago, Nivek said:


2017 Wagner group with armor and Syrians (about 500 total) attacked 21 US Special Forces at a base and the Russians were skull fucked by our armed service men.

Damn, I just posted about this in the DT thread. Remember when no one could believe that happened, and how the best of the best of the Russian military could blunder like that? After watching them in Ukraine, I'm starting to understand it. 

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7 minutes ago, Nivek said:


2017 Wagner group with armor and Syrians (about 500 total) attacked 21 US Special Forces at a base and the Russians were skull fucked by our armed service men.

Not really responsive to anything. 

6 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

No. That is not what he is saying. 
Our argument is do we go straight to bed with Russia or make them at least buy us dinner 1st. 

Ugh, good God, y'all are so bloodlusted that you can't even have a discussion about a way to end this that doesn't end in millions of deaths. I want Putin gone. The only way that happens without a lot more bloodshed is if the Russian people do it. I want to do anything that will encourage the Russian people to do so. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I want Putin gone. The only way that happens without a lot more bloodshed is if the Russian people do it.

I think it's far more likely that some rich dudes who are taking a 70% haircut over the course of a month are going to see to it that Putin suffers a tragic accident.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Not really responsive to anything. 

Ugh, good God, y'all are so bloodlusted that you can't even have a discussion about a way to end this that doesn't end in millions of deaths. I want Putin gone. The only way that happens without a lot more bloodshed is if the Russian people do it. I want to do anything that will encourage the Russian people to do so. 

Wat?

Most are agreeing on final goal, just arguing how achieve final goal

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't know why anyone would think the average Russian, even as a large collective, would have any sway in their government's actions.  Russia is an autocracy.  Putin and his cronies don't give a tinker's damn what the man on the street thinks.  

The average Russian on his own doesn't. But the more popular opinion in Russia turns against Putin, the more emboldened some general or whoever will be to take out Putin and save us all a lot of trouble. Do you see any other way out of this? 

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think it's far more likely that some rich dudes who are taking a 70% haircut over the course of a month are going to see to it that Putin suffers a tragic accident.

Sure. That guy. The economic sanctions increase the probability of his taking action. And, so too I think does turning popular opinion against Putin. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, you've been arguing against the idea of Russia not being our forever enemy, so it didn't really seem like you agreed on the goal at all. 

Where did I say that? I argued they have never given us a sign they want to back down. 
You kept asking NATO to pull its skirt up with out them reciprocating. I explained we have been asking for 70 years for them to back down. 

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That may be true. But we've never really said it. And we continue to point nukes at them. I get why we do it. I'm just saying, were I Russian, I would need some convincing that this group doesn't hate me and want me dead. I'd like us to do more on the convincing them front. Any message that we can get out there that makes it more likely the Russians replace Putin on their own is a good one. 

We don’t need to say it. This is their problem to fix. They know it too. I think I knew well enough 2 Soviet era and 2 post Soviet era folks from there. None of them bought the bullshit.

Our recent track record of helping people overthrow regimes is not great. We just need to sit back and let them see what they are missing out on in life. Future leadership will emerge organically from within. It’s not like we haven’t asked people to rise up and overthrow dictators promising support but standing idle as they were slaughtered before. It’s not like we don’t have a recent history with abandoning our ally, the Kurds.

You talk like pointing nukes is like pointing a bow and arrow, as if the Russian people are looking out their window and seeing it from Alaska. And it’s not like the ICBMs and Navy are not the real threat.

We’re I a Russian, I would have cirrhosis.
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57 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dude, NATO was created to counter the Soviet Union. That's just the way it is. That shouldn't be controversial. Here:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato

What? The entirety of my plan is just to let the Russian people know that they need not be enemies with NATO. We would be open to membership if Russia replaces Putin and changes its behavior. I'm not suggesting we do anything else but make that message known. I want the Russian people to know they options other than Putin or annihilation. 

Living a city with a rather large Russian population (As well as the home of 150,000 or so Ukrainians) I can safely say that if I went down to Brighton Beach I would find almost no one there who has in the past or currently supports Putin now.
 

I remember back before Covid when I was working in the middle of touristville in Times Square that a Russian couple came in. They were having a great time and I remember the husband remarking that “We are people just like you and we like Americans. It’s the politicians that always mess things up.” Could not have been nice folks. I never have forgotten that. NATO is not set up to scare the average Russian. Those folks are just like us with most just concerned about their families and making it day-to-day. On the list of things they care about I feel certain that NATO existing and them not being in it is pretty far down the list. I saw the footage from the protests taking place in Times Square the past several days and one Russian that was interviewed said he showed up because “My country is the aggressor and the least I can do is be here to support Ukraine.” 
 

Besides all of that Russia would get an invite to NATO over the dead bodies of Poland and every other NATO member with a memory of being occupied by the Soviets for almost five decades. The memories of atrocities committed against their families is a long one. 
 

 

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Ugh, good God, y'all are so bloodlusted that you can't even have a discussion about a way to end this that doesn't end in millions of deaths. I want Putin gone. The only way that happens without a lot more bloodshed is if the Russian people do it. I want to do anything that will encourage the Russian people to do so. 

You are not having an honest discussion at this point. You mentioned that they never outright attacked us. They did in 2017, and I just informed you that this happened. Now you try to twist it to suit your new narrative.

No one wants them to die. I have a former colleague who is Russian Military reserves. I don’t want him to die, I don’t what his young daughters (under 10) to not have a dad. I know several Russians from different eras, soviet and post Soviet. I like them all.

Maybe you are confusing yourself.
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48 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Holy shit this fucking guy 

 

MacGregor gave us the talking points for the upcoming week there at the end.  

1) We should stay out of the way.  Ukraine will lose handily.  For the US to encourage Ukraine to resist with their lives will be seen as a monumental humanitarian disaster, since we don't have the balls to fight our own battles, or join in here.

2) He's basically giving Russia carte blanche to use whatever tactics they deem necessary, and when they win, then it's egg on Biden's face.  

TL;DR:  Ukraine won't win and Biden is sending sheep to the slaughter.  They should just roll over and let Putin in.

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3 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

Where did I say that? I argued they have never given us a sign they want to back down. 
You kept asking NATO to pull its skirt up with out them reciprocating. I explained we have been asking for 70 years for them to back down. 

How in the blue fuck did you reach that conclusion? I expressly said they would have to reciprocate. All I said we should let the Russian people, not the government, know that being allies, not enemies, is a possibility IF things change (e.g., get rid of Putin). 

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I’m all for making the Russian people not an enemy, whether that be offering NATO membership or whatever. I think they’re not as enamored with all this shit as some think. But at the same time, there are a shit ton of steps before any of that happens

Of course. I just thought it would help get rid of Putin if we made a small gesture in that direction. 

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