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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, victory88 said:

https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF12106/IF12106.17.pdf
 

Lots of information summarized in there.  Take from it what you will.  I don't see any concrete evidence in there stating they are weeks from being able to launch a nuke.  If they did, Trump would be the first to fly a plane with a US bomb.  If anything, he is trying to avoid conflict and that would not be the case if Iran was an imminent threat.  I don't agree much with the orange man, but I agree with him here.  We can take the conversation to the other thread as it is better suited. 

The article posted yesterday from FT, now probably 2 pages back, discusses the status of their program. They have high-grade enriched uranium and they have the knowhow and if they wanted they could build more than one nuclear weapon in a matter of days or weeks. They also have a different secret facility called Pickaxe they can use, possibly others as well, and it may be even more difficult for missiles to take out/cut off access to than Fordow.

Edited by Chopper
Posted
2 minutes ago, Pasken said:

The fact that you find it "hard to read" explains a lot about your position. 

I found it hard to read because it was highlighted dumbass. 

It's been a pleasure. Enjoy yo self!

Posted
7 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Good shit. 

I think for the Isreali's they have 3 military options for the nuclear program, none of which are perfect:

1. Use their limited bunker buster weapons repeatedly in hopes of eventually breaking through deep buried Iranian facilities. Both inefficient and risks potential dirty bomb scenerio.

2. Use nukes tactically.  I don't believe this is really on the table short of some sudden existential threat we haven't seen. 

3. Some sort of airborne operation to take the facilities in force.  The chances of this turning into a debacle are high. 

Which leaves them with two other outs:

4. We use our bombers to destroy the facilities, which is possible if option5 doesn't happen. 

5. Iranians capitulate and give up weapons and/or internal regime change. 

 

It's worth noting, while Iranians are suffering civilian casaulties, the Israelis appear to be using much more caution than they are in Gaza. 

I think, most likely some amalgamation of 4 and 5 are what ends up happening. But... I admit I tend very hawkish in regards to my disdain for Iran and frankly this conflict. Purely selfishly I am ready for the can kicking to end. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I think, most likely some amalgamation of 4 and 5 are what ends up happening. But... I admit I tend very hawkish in regards to my disdain for Iran and frankly this conflict. Purely selfishly I am ready for the can kicking to end. 

On one hand I understand being hawkish against the current regime and I definitely agree they need to go, but it's always amusing to me how no one wants to look back and consider why Iran is the way it is now and how that should factor in to how this goes. 

It doesn't seem to be that bombing the shit out of this country and then installing whatever puppet government we choose is going to ultimately lead to a better outcome than what we have today.

Seems like a lot of selfish, short term interest is driving a lot of this.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I think, most likely some amalgamation of 4 and 5 are what ends up happening. But... I admit I tend very hawkish in regards to my disdain for Iran and frankly this conflict. Purely selfishly I am ready for the can kicking to end. 

Same. Although I'm getting more isolationist as a I get older. 

3 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

On one hand I understand being hawkish against the current regime and I definitely agree they need to go, but it's always amusing to me how no one wants to look back and consider why Iran is the way it is now and how that should factor in to how this goes. 

It doesn't seem to be that bombing the shit out of this country and then installing whatever puppet government we choose is going to ultimately lead to a better outcome than what we have today.

Seems like a lot of selfish, short term interest is driving a lot of this.

America never thinking more than one step ahead and resorting to force as a solution for everything? 

first time GIF

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Posted

As an aside, I've heard anecdotally the Air Force is loathe to use B-2 for almost anything these days, out of fear that each time use them, there's the potential the Chinese pick up improved data on stealth detection. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

On one hand I understand being hawkish against the current regime and I definitely agree they need to go, but it's always amusing to me how no one wants to look back and consider why Iran is the way it is now and how that should factor in to how this goes. 

It doesn't seem to be that bombing the shit out of this country and then installing whatever puppet government we choose is going to ultimately lead to a better outcome than what we have today.

Seems like a lot of selfish, short term interest is driving a lot of this.

Well, few things here.

It the toppling of the current Iranian regime was inevitable, for a ton of different reasons. The current how was always the mostly likely way, but we all know there were multiple options.

Second, putting in a new puppet master is absolutely suboptimal. However, I'm not sure it could be a LOT worse. It certainly could be, but I have my doubts it would. 

Third, my true hope is the people of Iran find their own autonomy and self rule something that might not be a democracy but at least something better than a tyranical caliphate. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

As an aside, I've heard anecdotally the Air Force is loathe to use B-2 for almost anything these days, out of fear that each time use them, there's the potential the Chinese pick up improved data on stealth detection. 

The logic of that certainly tracks. 

Counter point, sometimes our military truly enjoys flexing despite the negatives.

Posted
7 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Third, my true hope is the people of Iran find their own autonomy and self rule something that might not be a democracy but at least something better than a tyranical caliphate. 

Right, my point was they have had this before and we decided to destroy it because they dared to nationalize their own oil industry and refused to capitulate to Western (mostly British at the time) oil interests.

We will never allow them to have a democratic government because they will want to maintain control of their own interests.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Right, my point was they have had this before and we decided to destroy it because they dared to nationalize their own oil industry and refused to capitulate to Western (mostly British at the time) oil interests.

We will never allow them to have a democratic government because they will want to maintain control of their own interests.

Going to agree to disagree on this point.  It's not the 19--s any more.

Neither of us know and its all purely supposition. Either way, I'm pretty confident the current Iranian regime is going to end and I'll choose the cup half full vision. Again, it can't get a lot worse for the people or the western countries so.. FAFO.

Posted
22 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Going to agree to disagree on this point.  It's not the 19--s any more.

Neither of us know and its all purely supposition. Either way, I'm pretty confident the current Iranian regime is going to end and I'll choose the cup half full vision. Again, it can't get a lot worse for the people or the western countries so.. FAFO.

Yes, you're right, it's worse now.

If you think we're funneling money and weapons to Israel and sending strategic bombers over there to spread democracy you're kidding yourself. It's the exact same delusion that the powers that be counted on vis a vis Iraq. A government amenable to us plundering their natural resources (and keeping them from flowing into China) is the only acceptable option. And we aren't the only interested parties, the Saudis are very interested in this as well.

Posted
3 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

https://archive.is/mkHnl#selection-2155.0-2167.160

 

 
 

 

Are you implying that Iran doesn't participate in international terrorism? That it didn't kidnap and kill US civilians, soldiers, and employees in Lebanon in the 80s, bomb a community center in Argentina in the 90s, kill US soldiers with IEDs in Iraq in the 10s, or try to kill US politicians and Generals on US soil in the teens? Iran has been the largest sponsor of International Terrorism since the Islamic Republic was founded after the fall of the Shah. "Death To America!" is an official regime slogan... and they mean it.

 

 

Are you implying that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program? That it hasn't actively been trying to develop nuclear weapons of mass destruction for 20+ years?

 

 

What the Fuck are you talking about?

 

 

Blame Hamas for using their own people as human shields while they hide underneath schools and Mosques with their kidnapping victims. And where are you getting the 25k+ number from? Hamas?

 

 

Define "equally". Are you actually trying to draw an equivalency between the actions of Israel, and Iran? Are you serious?

 

 

9xlomg.jpg

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Posted
44 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Going to agree to disagree on this point.  It's not the 19--s any more.

Neither of us know and its all purely supposition. Either way, I'm pretty confident the current Iranian regime is going to end and I'll choose the cup half full vision. Again, it can't get a lot worse for the people or the western countries so.. FAFO.

I agree with this. Watch the first 3 minutes of Argo.

The world has changed a lot since 1979. America does't have anywhere near the influence, and a lot of countries have a lot of money = influence.
I'm not offering any endorsement or criticism of anybody, but Iran migrating towards a Qatari/Emirates mindset would make the world a much better place. As Charliie Wilson opined, "You think they might be a lot happier over there if they could just get women and booze in the same room at the same time?"

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Posted
4 minutes ago, PTINS said:

You think they might be a lot happier over there if they could just get women and booze in the same room at the same time?"

They had that before.  They were, indeed, much happier.

4691BF5C00000578-0-image-a-142_151126776

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's the exact same delusion that the powers that be counted on vis a vis Iraq. A government amenable to us plundering their natural resources (and keeping them from flowing into China) is the only acceptable option. And we aren't the only interested parties, the Saudis are very interested in this as well.

 

Iraq's biggest customers for it's oil, at market prices, are India and China. Iraq is also a (poorly) functioning democracy, which is far better than the totalitarian menace it was before. I think you need to work on your definition of "plundering", and I don't think your statements support your argument.

Posted
5 hours ago, victory88 said:

The reports from the US intelligence community was that Iran is not close to developing a nuclear weapon.  Netanyahu has been saying for 25 years that Iran is months away from developing a nuclear weapon only for them to never have one.  I'm all for Iran's regime being over thrown so their people can elect a non extremist leadership so they can enjoy basic rights, but we do NOT need to be dragged into this.  There is no reason to involve US resources into a regional conflict.  Let Israel fight their battles.  We have supplied them with enough weapons and bombs to commit one genocide.  We can use diplomacy to monitor Iran like the rest of the world has and like we have previously done. Is there actual evidence of Iran not complying with the monitoring, testing, and surveillance.?  Negotiations were set to start again until Israel went Leeroy Jenkins with their attack.  Stop wasting tax payer dollars on this bullshit.

I've been saying for decades that I'm going to get with Sela Ward, regardless of how many annoying restraining orders get in the way, but it isn't happening.  Yet.

Netanyahu barely survived a no-confidence vote last week only because he caved to the Orthodox part of his coalition and said he wouldn't draft their sons, so I'm a wee bit suspicious as to the timing of this war.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I have one of those, but no sheath. 
So no honor forthcoming, much likr this war.

 

562$$IMG_2235.jpeg

 

Was the Mexican dead or alive when you took it from him?

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Netanyahu barely survived a no-confidence vote last week only because he caved to the Orthodox part of his coalition and said he wouldn't draft their sons, so I'm a wee bit suspicious as to the timing of this war.

Yeah GIF

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Posted
4 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Dude, Iran has openly made it clear for decades that complete annihilation of Israel is their goal. They've made every effort to do so. 

Whether or not they would use nukes against Israel is open for debate but their ultimate plans are not.

I for one, care more about the threat to the US and other western countries should a caliphate regime deeply in bed with terrorist gain access to nukes.

Iran knows Israel has the means to nuke them several times over, and that they would not get a chunk of Israel's nukes even in a first-strike.  They also know that the US and others would get involved (the fallout might even trigger Article 5).  They also know the Arab/non-Shiite world would get involved against them - fallout doesn't give a fuck about borders, but also none of them want nukes popping off in the Middle East regardless of fallout patterns.  It's just all around a good way to ensure that the Iranian leadership will cease to exist, along with a chunk of Iran, and for all of their bullshit, I don't think they are that crazy - they like staying in power and being alive.

Look at the fact that they aren't shutting down the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz, even though multiple Sunni nations are allowing Israeli overflights. They also aren't attacking those nations for passively supporting Israel.

Plus, their last friendly nation with decent power is Russia and Russia ain't doing shit to help them.

I'm more worried about Pakistan losing a nuke or two, or some organization ginning up a dirty bomb and putting it on a cargo ship into a Western port than I am Iran trying to wipe Israel off the map.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They had that before.  They were, indeed, much happier.

4691BF5C00000578-0-image-a-142_151126776

I never realized Epstein was a Persian woman. I thought he was a Puerto Rican Jew?

 

 

4691BF5C00000578-0-image-a-142_1511267769425.jpg

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Posted
17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Netanyahu barely survived a no-confidence vote last week only because he caved to the Orthodox part of his coalition and said he wouldn't draft their sons, so I'm a wee bit suspicious as to the timing of this

IMG_4733.thumb.jpeg.aa4b1013cdc72355b2531a26e52750c0.jpeg

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Deej said:

I never realized Epstein was a Persian woman. I thought he was a Puerto Rican Jew?

You think Epstein was looking good, you should see his mother.

Signed, 

Epstein's Mother

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I've been saying for decades that I'm going to get with Sela Ward, regardless of how many annoying restraining orders get in the way, but it isn't happening.  Yet.

Netanyahu barely survived a no-confidence vote last week only because he caved to the Orthodox part of his coalition and said he wouldn't draft their sons, so I'm a wee bit suspicious as to the timing of this war.

 

There's also the fact that Macron was getting ready to announce recognition of a Palestinian state at a conference in Saudi Arabia, which has now been postponed, because of the bombing of Iran. Moreover, Germany is reportedly strongly contemplating tagging along with their recognition of one as well if France goes first. And then this:

On Thursday, Mr. Macron posted a statement on X lauding Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, saying that a letter “of hope, courage and clarity” received from him last Tuesday “traced the path toward a horizon of peace.”

In the letter, Mr. Abbas called for Hamas to “hand over its weapons,” immediately free all hostages and leave Gaza. He also committed to reform the notoriously corrupt and ineffective Palestinian Authority.

The letter met several of the conditions set by Mr. Macron for French recognition of a Palestinian state. But other voices close to the president are pushing him in another direction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/world/middleeast/france-israel-macron-palestinian-state.html

It's not a done deal yet, but currently, 147 members of the UN's 193 already do so. Also, recall that Ireland, Spain, and Norway announced recognition last year. French recognition of Palestine would be a big deal since they've historically been a major supporter by providing them with the tech for their nuclear program, as well as all the Mirage jets they provided Israel, and also because 150,000 French citizens currently live in Israel.

Edit to add map of countries that recognize a Palestinian state.

1200px-Palestine_recognition_only.svg.pn

Edited by bolverk
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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Iran knows Israel has the means to nuke them several times over, and that they would not get a chunk of Israel's nukes even in a first-strike.  They also know that the US and others would get involved (the fallout might even trigger Article 5).  They also know the Arab/non-Shiite world would get involved against them - fallout doesn't give a fuck about borders, but also none of them want nukes popping off in the Middle East regardless of fallout patterns.  It's just all around a good way to ensure that the Iranian leadership will cease to exist, along with a chunk of Iran, and for all of their bullshit, I don't think they are that crazy - they like staying in power and being alive.

Look at the fact that they aren't shutting down the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz, even though multiple Sunni nations are allowing Israeli overflights. They also aren't attacking those nations for passively supporting Israel.

Plus, their last friendly nation with decent power is Russia and Russia ain't doing shit to help them.

I'm more worried about Pakistan losing a nuke or two, or some organization ginning up a dirty bomb and putting it on a cargo ship into a Western port than I am Iran trying to wipe Israel off the map.

Not sure why you directed this at me. I said:

Whether or not they would use nukes against Israel is open for debate but their ultimate plans are not.

I for one, care more about the threat to the US and other western countries should a caliphate regime deeply in bed with terrorist gain access to nukes.

...but I lean very heavily towards never happen for many of the very reasons you noted.

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They had that before.  They were, indeed, much happier.

4691BF5C00000578-0-image-a-142_151126776

The Iranian Revolution spooled up the year I graduated. I have no first hand knowledge of any those sweet things.

I'm betting everybody was much happier.   

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Posted
1 hour ago, PTINS said:

I agree with this. Watch the first 3 minutes of Argo.

The world has changed a lot since 1979. America does't have anywhere near the influence, and a lot of countries have a lot of money = influence.
I'm not offering any endorsement or criticism of anybody, but Iran migrating towards a Qatari/Emirates mindset would make the world a much better place. As Charliie Wilson opined, "You think they might be a lot happier over there if they could just get women and booze in the same room at the same time?"

Argo fuck yourself. – @miserym on Tumblr

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Tomcats down!

 

1) Fucking Israel just ruined our chances of making the plot of "Maverick" come true.  FUCKING BASTARDS.

8 minutes ago, SurlyGator said:

This seems newsworthy...

 

2) So, to be clear....the commander in chief of a nuclear superpower just said that the entire capital city of another country should evacuate.

The technical, political, and military term for that statement is "absolutely fucking insane."

Seriously, I know that nothing matters anymore, but if it did.....that statement alone would dominate the news for a month, and it absolutely should.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Posted
Just now, InkaUtexas said:

I doubt many were operational. No supply chain since the 1980s. Maybe make some stuff local, but not everything.

Have you not seen the following documentary film?

maxresdefault.jpg

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Posted
1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Its long been a truism that the actual most likely target for an Iranian bomb is not Tel Aviv, it’s Riyadh. 

100%

This is their real strategic rival.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1) Fucking Israel just ruined our chances of making the plot of "Maverick" come true.  FUCKING BASTARDS.

2) ....

So your main concern is about a movie failing to come true and the words of the US president....

Yet, say nothing about the potential secondary market on F14s that could open up for the 1%ers should the Iranian regime fall.

I don't even know you anymore.

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I doubt many were operational. No supply chain since the 1980s. Maybe make some stuff local, but not everything.

You kidding? Maverick was able to shoot down a 5th gen with one they had just sitting up on the blocks!

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