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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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Just now, dec3169 said:

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.  AP means nothing at this point, other than giving everyone something to look at and speculate.  CFP commission doesn't have to do anything with AP rankings.

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

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2 hours ago, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

eye test

How the hell does Bama look better in any 'eye test' (one of the most idiotic aspects of this bullshit btw) than Texas does? There is simply no remotely reasonable rationale for putting Bama ahead of Texas. 

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

Because the committee puts more weight in who you lose to than who you beat.

they lost to a undefeated Washington and we lost to a 2 loss ou. If we don’t shit the bed in October this doesn’t matter.

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1 minute ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

pathetic Ohio State is ahead of us in the latest AP ranking.   That OU loss cost a national title and they won't let us forget it. 2023 was our year with roster stacked with NFL upperclassmen who are gone.   Gonna miss Sanders/Worthy/Sweat the most. 

Yea they lost to an undefeated Michigan and we lost to a 2 loss ou. Ap voters and the committee look at losses more than wins no matter how many times they say “the body of work”. 

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

Yeah we'd need a crystal ball to figure that one out.  It makes no sense.  What's worse is they may not move Oregon this week with Oregon/Washington looming for the CCG.

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7 minutes ago, dec3169 said:

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.  AP means nothing at this point, other than giving everyone something to look at and speculate.  CFP commission doesn't have to do anything with AP rankings.

CFP will have Top 8 exactly as AP and Coaches. We might be above tOSU, but doubt it, and there is zero reason to move us ahead of Oregon. 

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2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Because the committee puts more weight in who you lose to than who you beat.

they lost to a undefeated Washington and we lost to a 2 loss ou. If we don’t shit the bed in October this doesn’t matter.

When they ranked Oregon above us we lost to an undefeated ou.  It makes more sense now than it did then.

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7 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Because the committee puts more weight in who you lose to than who you beat.

they lost to a undefeated Washington and we lost to a 2 loss ou. If we don’t shit the bed in October this doesn’t matter.

right, and additionally they don't care about SOS for one loss teams.

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36 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

You've said over and over again that the committee will throw out their guidelines and do whatever they want. Don't lie. 

Look, it really is not that difficult.  A “guideline” is a general recommendation.  It’s not a requirement.  See the clip below from Pirates of the Caribbean for help and understanding. Go to the 25 second mark.
 

Here are two hypothetical examples of the use of a “guideline” and mandatory, no exceptions criteria.  See if you can figure out which is which.
 

In making its selection determination -

the committee considers whether a one loss candidate school is its conference champion in comparison to one or more one loss candidate schools that are not their respective conference champions.

compare with

the committee shall select a one loss conference champion candidate school over a one loss non-conference champion candidate school.

I can’t break it down any simpler.

 

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12 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Yea they lost to an undefeated Michigan and we lost to a 2 loss ou. Ap voters and the committee look at losses more than wins no matter how many times they say “the body of work”. 

there is and has never been any reason to schedule tough out of conference games.  The poll era and committee's have proven this over and over again.  you just need to make sure you go 3-0 in OOC.  they lie all the time about body of work/SOS

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5 minutes ago, dec3169 said:

When they ranked Oregon above us we lost to an undefeated ou.  It makes more sense now than it did then.

OU was no longer undefeated when the first CFP rankings came out.  They had just lost to Kansas 3 days prior and had almost lost to UCF the prior week.  It made our loss look pretty bad while Oregon was rolling (eye test and win against Utah right before rankings).  If OU stayed undefeated (like washington did), we never would have been behind Oregon.  I never understood why everyone was so happy about OU losing when it was bad for Texas, best case was we beat an undefeated OU in the CCG (would have been good on so many levels).  I like to see OU to lose as much as the next guy, but not when it hurts Texas.     

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6 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

Look, it really is not that difficult.  A “guideline” is a general recommendation.  It’s not a requirement.  See the clip below from Pirates of the Caribbean for help and understanding. Go to the 25 second mark.
 

Here are two hypothetical examples of the use of a “guideline” and mandatory, no exceptions criteria.  See if you can figure out which is which.
 

In making its selection determination -

the committee considers whether a one loss candidate school is its conference champion in comparison to one or more one loss candidate schools that are not their respective conference champions.

compare with

the committee shall select a one loss conference champion candidate school over a one loss non-conference champion candidate school.

I can’t break it down any simpler.

 

I agree with that, Jesus. People are arguing that there isn't a consideration at all. There's no obligation. They can and will do what they want. 

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I think it's a lot harder to definitively rank conferences than people believe.  There is so little connectivity.  The sample size is too small.  But, "the SEC is just so tough" continues to be the status quo, even though there is plenty of evidence from bowl games over the years that it's not really true.  Sure, it's a tough league, but it's not the ONLY tough league.

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2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Rage all you want, I didn’t design the system.  I’d have left it the way it was 25 years ago and just let the writers pick after all the dust of the New Years Bowl’s settled. 

This is a joke, right?  Right?

You'd prefer a system where WRITERS who 1) admit they don't watch many of the games, 2) are homers, and 3) include people like Kirk Bohls unilaterally declare a MNC based on teams that DIDN'T settle it on the field?  A system that dis-incentivizes marquee OOC games so you can retain a perfect record by loading up on creampuffs, where multiple teams end the season undefeated and all stake a claim to the MNC, and where the very best teams rarely if ever play each other at the culmination of the season?  A system where fat cats in cheesy colored ill-fitting blazers travel around on boondoggles to see the top teams as part of their pseudo money laundering bowl setup? That's the system you'd prefer?

The 4 team CFP isn't perfect but it's a million times better than the BCS, which was a billion times better than the bowl system.  The 12-team CFP will be nirvana for people who actually enjoy seeing, you know, the best teams actually play against each other and settle it on the field.

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13 minutes ago, blutow said:

OU was no longer undefeated when the first CFP rankings came out.  They had just lost to Kansas 3 days prior and had almost lost to UCF the prior week.  It made our loss look pretty bad while Oregon was rolling (eye test and win against Utah right before rankings).  If OU stayed undefeated (like washington did), we never would have been behind Oregon.  I never understood why everyone was so happy about OU losing when it was bad for Texas, best case was we beat an undefeated OU in the CCG (would have been good on so many levels).  I like to see OU to lose as much as the next guy, but not when it hurts Texas.     

Thanks - I've slept since then.

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

This would be great and all, if the committee actually considered SOS.

Here we go again. Why is this information being posted if not to influence the committee? SOS matters. H2H matters. Common opponents matter. The guidelines matter. Ultimately they may chunk them but it will have to be a close call. 

I'm too lazy to look up their process but if someone tells me the committee works on a secret ballot or it's all mailed in with no accountability amongst themselves then I'll take it all back and submit myself for board-flagellation.

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Y'all need to quit arguing about Oregon. Per the metrics we should be ahead of them but the committee has made their choice and nothing that happened this weekend or will happen next weekend will move the needle. They're going to stick their guns on this one, especially with Nix in the Heisman conversation. Only way we jump them is with a Washington win in the PAC CCG and they pick up a second loss. The eventual PAC12 winner is in either way.

 

Our only realistic paths in at this point:

1. FSU loses - we're in

OR

2. Bama wins - we're in 

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Now knowing the outcome of the other games this weekend and the fact we are playing OSU in the Big 12 title game, I wish we hadn't played that Yormark video at the end of the game.  With us needing others to lose to make the playoff, big 12 refs will be doing everything they can to screw us against a team that is magical at figuring out ways to get bullshit calls against us.  We are gonna have to play lights out and extremely clean.  Our lineman are gonna need to learn how to block with their hands tied up behind their backs.  

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1 minute ago, chemHORN said:

Now knowing the outcome of the other games this weekend and the fact we are playing OSU in the Big 12 title game, I wish we hadn't played that Yormark video at the end of the game.  With us needing others to lose to make the playoff, big 12 refs will be doing everything they can to screw us against a team that is magical at figuring out ways to get bullshit calls against us.  We are gonna have to play lights out and extremely clean.  

Nothing changed with that video. He already knew how we felt and he was always gonna try to fuck us anyway. It don't make a shit. Fuck errrbody.

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5 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

Y'all need to quit arguing about Oregon. Per the metrics we should be ahead of them but the committee has made their choice and nothing that happened this weekend or will happen next weekend will move the needle. They're going to stick their guns on this one, especially with Nix in the Heisman conversation. Only way we jump them is with a Washington win in the PAC CCG and they pick up a second loss. The eventual PAC12 winner is in either way.

 

Our only realistic paths in at this point:

1. FSU loses - we're in

OR

2. Bama wins - we're in 

not so sure about #2.  Bama, Wash/Ore, FSU, Mich

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Despite all the wackiness in yesterday's games, there were zero surprise outcomes and certainly none that did Texas any favors. I said a few weeks ago I wasn't going to worry about CFP scenarios and that I was going to be happy with winning the Big 12 Championship and anything beyond that was gravy. I also didn't think we had a team that could win it all anyways. I'm not sure I believe that last part anymore. Let's hope the chaos we nearly got this weekend happens next weekend -- go Iowa (LOL), go Bama (maybe), go Oregon (I guess -- they'll win, I'm nearly certain of it) and especially go Louisville (FSU is nowhere near a CFP-worthy team with no Jordan Travis).

I guess we'll likely need two of those to pop for us to get in if we beat the Pokes unless Iowa pulls off a miracle against Michigan. That would eliminate the Big 10 from the conversation. (EDIT: Louisville beats FSU should do the trick.)

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

not so sure about #2.  Bama, Wash/Ore, FSU, Mich

No way unless Alabama beats Georgia something like 50-13 and we go tripple overtime with OSU

 

Much like Oregon has the poll momentum over us, we have the same over Alabama. If it comes down to us being the Big12 champ and them being the SEC champ, we get it via H2H and all the talking head have said as such as well. Especially after their debacle against an awful Auburn team.  

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Full text since Twitter is dumb:

Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.

OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)

This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC opponents.

Oregon's best win is 5-4 vs P5 teams, played no P5 OOC.

OSU's best win is a top-10 PSU. 2nd best win is #16 Notre Dame. 

Do not schedule big-time OOC games

Do not play in a conference that has better competition

Do everything you can to minimize the loss column and impress voters with multi-score wins over bad teams

Those in charge of stewarding our sport are failing on multiple fronts

 

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1 minute ago, USNALonghorn said:

If anything, that video highlighted and made the bias even more public and obvious. There will be a lot of people watching the B12 CCG.

Yep. Great point. Kind of a preemptive strike, if you will. Put a lot of eyes on Yormark and his idiotic vendetta.

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5 minutes ago, NoName said:

Full text since Twitter is dumb:

Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.

OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)

This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC opponents.

Oregon's best win is 5-4 vs P5 teams, played no P5 OOC.

OSU's best win is a top-10 PSU. 2nd best win is #16 Notre Dame. 

Do not schedule big-time OOC games

Do not play in a conference that has better competition

Do everything you can to minimize the loss column and impress voters with multi-score wins over bad teams

Those in charge of stewarding our sport are failing on multiple fronts

 

While I don’t disagree with the gist of this post, I’m not sure hanging your hat on underwhelming victories over *checks notes* Penn State and Notre Dame is where I’d build the foundation for my thesis. 

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8 minutes ago, NoName said:

Full text since Twitter is dumb:

Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.

OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)

This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC opponents.

Oregon's best win is 5-4 vs P5 teams, played no P5 OOC.

OSU's best win is a top-10 PSU. 2nd best win is #16 Notre Dame. 

Do not schedule big-time OOC games

Do not play in a conference that has better competition

Do everything you can to minimize the loss column and impress voters with multi-score wins over bad teams

Those in charge of stewarding our sport are failing on multiple fronts

 

That was Texas strategy most the last 15 years and we failed to win the conference and convert that into a national title. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NoName said:

Full text since Twitter is dumb:

Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.

OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)

This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC opponents.

Oregon's best win is 5-4 vs P5 teams, played no P5 OOC.

OSU's best win is a top-10 PSU. 2nd best win is #16 Notre Dame. 

Do not schedule big-time OOC games

Do not play in a conference that has better competition

Do everything you can to minimize the loss column and impress voters with multi-score wins over bad teams

Those in charge of stewarding our sport are failing on multiple fronts

Yep. @HornSports was also talking about the same thing. Apparently being undefeated against a shit schedule trumps 1 loss against a very good schedule, even when that loss is a close one. It's the same shit we all hated when the polls ruled everything. There needs to be a system. I guess we're getting a bit more of that next year, but it doesn't help now.

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32 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

This is a joke, right?  Right?

You'd prefer a system where WRITERS who 1) admit they don't watch many of the games, 2) are homers, and 3) include people like Kirk Bohls unilaterally declare a MNC based on teams that DIDN'T settle it on the field?  A system that dis-incentivizes marquee OOC games so you can retain a perfect record by loading up on creampuffs, where multiple teams end the season undefeated and all stake a claim to the MNC, and where the very best teams rarely if ever play each other at the culmination of the season?  A system where fat cats in cheesy colored ill-fitting blazers travel around on boondoggles to see the top teams as part of their pseudo money laundering bowl setup? That's the system you'd prefer?

The 4 team CFP isn't perfect but it's a million times better than the BCS, which was a billion times better than the bowl system.  The 12-team CFP will be nirvana for people who actually enjoy seeing, you know, the best teams actually play against each other and settle it on the field.

In a sense, we are still, to some degree, at the whims of a beauty contest. I totally agree we need to expand the playoffs, but short of giving the  P5 conference champs auto bids and then some sort of ranked wild card system (which still creates a beauty contest issue), I don’t know how you don’t end up with somebody complaining that “We did x, y, and z, and it’s total bullshit that this other team is in and we aren’t”

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Anyone thinking teams going undefeated and taking a guaranteed spot benefits us are not thinking it through.  13-0 P5 is getting in this year ending the discussion for each of those 4 spots. The more spots available, and the more 1 loss teams vying for those 4 spots, the more the committee has to look at H2H, conference championship, SOS, common opponents, ($$ potential), best wins,  and all the rest.   Our odds improve on all accounts.

Let all the undefeated lose next week and the final poll probably looks like Bama, UT, UO, and UM/UGA can fight for 4th

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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

In a sense, we are still, to some degree, at the whims of a beauty contest. I totally agree we need to expand the playoffs, but short of giving the  P5 conference champs auto bids and then some sort of ranked wild card system (which still creates a beauty contest issue), I don’t know how you don’t end up with somebody complaining that “We did x, y, and z, and it’s total bullshit that this other team is in and we aren’t”

That's still a massive improvement over now. At least then conf champs get in regardless of the relative beauty of any loss or losses they might have, and the beauty contest is moved farther down the list. No matter how many teams you put in the playoff, there will be arguments about the final spots.

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7 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

In a sense, we are still, to some degree, at the whims of a beauty contest. I totally agree we need to expand the playoffs, but short of giving the  P5 conference champs auto bids and then some sort of ranked wild card system (which still creates a beauty contest issue), I don’t know how you don’t end up with somebody complaining that “We did x, y, and z, and it’s total bullshit that this other team is in and we aren’t”

The gravity of the beauty contest argument means a lot less when it's two teams arguing over who should be #12 or 13.  The bowl system was the ultimate beauty contest, pining for those days is putting the car into reverse and mashing down on the gas.

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It makes me ragey to think about a one-loss non-conference champion TCU and Ohio State getting in last year, or no undefeated P5 conference champions the year before.  Fuck!  Talk about shit luck when we finally get our shit together.  And then I started thinking about how Colt McCoy and Vince Young do not have Heisman's, but fucking Baker Mayfield and Eric Crouch and Troy Smith and fucking Mark fucking Ingram do and fuuuccckkk.

But we are 11-1 and I am happy otherwise.

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3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 


Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Stick to watching pac 12 games.  How about the 38-30 beauty contest against tech.  The only reason Oregon was ahead of us initially bc they throttled a ranked colorado team and a ranked Utah team that were both farces.  With no common opponents, being mid way through the season… strength of schedule didn’t come into play and we also had our back up qb.  It’s going to be totally different.  Is Oregon’s win against a team they lost to going to be better than our road win against #3 Bama? Nope.  Will Oregon have a better strength of schedule? Nope.  Will Oregon have beaten more ranked teams? Nope.  Will Oregon have an advantage in common opponent?  Nope.  You’re simply relying on an eye test.  If Texas wins another game 40-17 or along those lines…. Then I’m not sure the committee will be able to find any reason to keep Oregon in front of us.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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