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1 minute ago, Fondren & Main said:

It’s kind of bullshit that Oregon didn’t fall after their last second loss while we did.  

I think it’s more we looked like shit for a good portion of that game while I thought Oregon looked better than Washington in theirs. Surprised WU pulled it out. 

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Reminds me of the classic “would you rather lose in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament or win the NIT”

You can’t win an NCAA title if you go to the NIT and you can’t win the CFP if you don’t make it. A 4 seed still has a shot and I’d rather have the shot 

TCU got dicked down by Georgia and I’d still take that 10/10 times over watching us in the fucking Alamo bowl

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3 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

It’s kind of bullshit that Oregon didn’t fall after their last second loss while we did.  

True. That was immediate. But over time their loss to Washington (bc undefeated team) looks better to the committee than our loss because OU has dropped two games. It would get screwy if Bama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington upcoming. But I always thought our best hope was Washington to be undefeated and UT to win out/CCG win. That’s best shot outside of FSU falling and I think the committee would take us over FSU if they were to lose a game regular season, but win their CCG. I think but who the hell knows? 

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4 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

It’s kind of bullshit that Oregon didn’t fall after their last second loss while we did.  

Huh?

The first CFP rankings came out 2 weeks after Oregon lost. The coaches poll prior to the first CFP rankings had Oregon 7 and Texas 6. We flipped after that to match the committee rankings 

They fell to 11th after they lost to UW on 10/14 and worked their way back up. We also fell to 11th after 10/7 and worked our way up 

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41 minutes ago, WinningIsHard said:

This is the same mother fucker who was hoping we would get upset by Kansas state during the game and now he’s “worried” about our legitimate chances to make the CFP?!? The 180 that so many people do is obnoxious, let’s worry about tomorrow then the day after that. Playoffs? Playoffs 

That didn’t happen. Stop making shit up. 

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True. That was immediate. But over time their loss to Washington (bc undefeated team) looks better to the committee than our loss because OU has dropped two games. It would get screwy if Bama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington upcoming. But I always thought our best hope was Washington to be undefeated and UT to win out/CCG win. That’s best shot outside of FSU falling and I think the committee would take us over FSU if they were to lose a game regular season, but win their CCG. I think but who the hell knows? 
Florida State isn't going to get any leeway if they lose this late. Our best bet is to have either Florida or Louisville knock them off. We can jump them. They are easily the weakest of the 4 playoff teams currently.

I'm curious what the voters do if Bama beats Georgia and both end with 1 loss. Do they take them both as they have several times before? They took both Michigan and Ohio State last year. Bama and Georgia the year before. We beat Bama head to head. I guess the committee could say it was before Milroe got good but we still did it and on the road..

Another good scenario would be to have Oregon somehow lose one more game to get them to 2 losses and then end up winning the pac 12 championship game.

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10 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

Florida State isn't going to get any leeway if they lose this late. Our best bet is to have either Florida or Louisville knock them off. We can jump them. They are easily the weakest of the 4 playoff teams currently.

I'm curious what the voters do if Bama beats Georgia and both end with 1 loss. Do they take them both as they have several times before? They took both Michigan and Ohio State last year. Bama and Georgia the year before. We beat Bama head to head. I guess the committee could say it was before Milroe got good but we still did it and on the road..

Another good scenario would be to have Oregon somehow lose one more game to get them to 2 losses and then end up winning the pac 12 championship game.
 

This will never happen unless FSU and Texas both lose at least one more. 0% chance they go over a 1 loss Texas, 1 loss Oregon, undefeated Washington, or an undefeated Florida state. 

 

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25 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This will never happen unless FSU and Texas both lose at least one more. 0% chance they go over a 1 loss Texas, 1 loss Oregon, undefeated Washington, or an undefeated Florida state. 

 

Yeah, I went back to look at it.  You have to look at things in context. A 1-loss major conference champion hasn't missed the playoffs, except 2018, which featured an undefeated ND that stole a spot from Ohio State. And 2014, but that didn't count because Baylor/TCU were co-champions and the Big 12 pivoted back to a conf champ game quickly. 

SEC champ will make it: 13-0 Georgia OR 12-1 Alabama
B1G champ will make it: 13-0  Michigan OR Ohio State
Then 2 of:
13-0 FSU
13-0 UW or 12-1 Oregon
12-1 Texas

4 of those 6 will make it. It will suck to be left out if there's 4 undefeateds, which hasn't happened before, and our best hope is FSU loses.  Messiest scenario may be:

12-1 Texas
12-1 UW (lost to Oregon State, but beats Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to eliminate them)
12-1 FSU

Texas really needs FSU to lose a game and better be the biggest Oregon State, ASU and Washington State fans the next 2 weeks.  

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, I went back to look at it.  You have to look at things in context. A 1-loss major conference champion hasn't missed the playoffs, except 2018, which featured an undefeated ND that stole a spot from Ohio State. And 2014, but that didn't count because Baylor/TCU were co-champions and the Big 12 pivoted back to a conf champ game quickly. 

SEC champ will make it: 13-0 Georgia OR 12-1 Alabama
B1G champ will make it: 13-0  Michigan OR Ohio State
Then 2 of:
13-0 FSU
13-0 UW or 12-1 Oregon
12-1 Texas

4 of those 6 will make it. It will suck to be left out if there's 4 undefeateds, which hasn't happened before, and our best hope is FSU loses.  Messiest scenario may be:

12-1 Texas
12-1 UW (lost to Oregon State, but beats Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to eliminate them)
12-1 FSU

Texas really needs FSU to lose a game and better be the biggest Oregon State, ASU and Washington State fans the next 2 weeks.  

My only problem with the bolder is the variables of the committee members aren’t the same. This committee doesn’t have to follow that. They can do whatever they want. Now where we agree is needing FSU to lose. I think Washington can lose this weekend but Texas needs Oregon to lose too.

It’s the same reason people making the claim that a 12-1 Texas isn’t getting left out. There’s no guarantee of that. You can’t make that claim until you know what else is a variable that helps make that claim (with no evidence).

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Just now, Pancho said:

My only problem with the bolder is the variables of the committee members aren’t the same. This committee doesn’t have to follow that. They can do whatever they want. Now where we agree is needing FSU to lose. I think Washington can lose this weekend but Texas needs Oregon to lose too.

It’s the same reason people making the claim that a 12-1 Texas isn’t getting left out. There’s no guarantee of that. You can’t make that claim until you know what else is a variable that helps make that claim (with no evidence).

I agree there's no guarantee, but historically, they have given a 12-1 conference champion a bid. The two times a one-loss conf champ was left out was because of an undefeated ND (no chance of that this year) and the Big 12 having two 11-1 champions (thank you CCG). 

The problem is we could have multiple one-loss champions: Texas, Alabama, FSU and UW/Oregon.  Then it gets tricky and Texas fans will be drinking heavily the entirety of December 3.  Texas has H2H on Alabama.  Texas has a better resume than a one-loss FSU and lost much earlier.  I think we only miss out if we get put up against Oregon in a scenario with 13-0 Georgia, 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan, 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Oregon. 

We really need Oregon to lose and then beat UW in the Pac 12 CCG.  A 2-loss conf champion Oregon gets left out.

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, I went back to look at it.  You have to look at things in context. A 1-loss major conference champion hasn't missed the playoffs, except 2018, which featured an undefeated ND that stole a spot from Ohio State. And 2014, but that didn't count because Baylor/TCU were co-champions and the Big 12 pivoted back to a conf champ game quickly. 

SEC champ will make it: 13-0 Georgia OR 12-1 Alabama
B1G champ will make it: 13-0  Michigan OR Ohio State
Then 2 of:
13-0 FSU
13-0 UW or 12-1 Oregon
12-1 Texas

4 of those 6 will make it. It will suck to be left out if there's 4 undefeateds, which hasn't happened before, and our best hope is FSU loses.  Messiest scenario may be:

12-1 Texas
12-1 UW (lost to Oregon State, but beats Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to eliminate them)
12-1 FSU

Texas really needs FSU to lose a game and better be the biggest Oregon State, ASU and Washington State fans the next 2 weeks.  

This is our current situation in my opinion and what we need to have happen: 

This is all assuming Texas wins out.

Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington but Oregon drops a game to OSU before they beat Washington (PAC misses playoff)

Less likely but very plausible scenarios:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

More unlikely:

5) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

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I agree that 12-1 Bama would almost certainly make it in over 12-1 Texas, but that just shows how fucking terrible this system is.

We will have beat them on the road, have the same record, and be knocked out by a 1 score loss with 14 seconds left. Doesn't make a lot of logical sense to put them in over us.

FSU has got to lose for us to have a chance. No guarantee we're winning out either, unfortunately. But let's hope we at least give ourselves a chance.

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12 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Our loss to OU had NOTHING to do with their quarterback. Do you even watch the games, man?

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree there's no guarantee, but historically, they have given a 12-1 conference champion a bid. The two times a one-loss conf champ was left out was because of an undefeated ND (no chance of that this year) and the Big 12 having two 11-1 champions (thank you CCG). 

The problem is we could have multiple one-loss champions: Texas, Alabama, FSU and UW/Oregon.  Then it gets tricky and Texas fans will be drinking heavily the entirety of December 3.  Texas has H2H on Alabama.  Texas has a better resume than a one-loss FSU and lost much earlier.  I think we only miss out if we get put up against Oregon in a scenario with 13-0 Georgia, 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan, 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Oregon. 

We really need Oregon to lose and then beat UW in the Pac 12 CCG.  A 2-loss conf champion Oregon gets left out.

I still think if we beat ISU, then beat the shit out of Tech (a common opponent with Oregon that they barely beat), then the committee might use that as an excuse to move us ahead of Oregon. 

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3 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

Yes. That's correct.

Because the statistics you're quoting don't correlate to winning football games very strongly.

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7 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

I still think if we beat ISU, then beat the shit out of Tech (a common opponent with Oregon that they barely beat), then the committee might use that as an excuse to move us ahead of Oregon. 

Depends. They’re facing Oregon State, who is ranked. We will have 5-3 or 4-4 Tech. 

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3 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Yes, but the committee has said in the past that they take common opponents into consideration. 

The committee will do whatever it wants. I could easily see them being like “week 2 vs week 12, it’s not the same” or some shit 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The committee will do whatever it wants. I could easily see them being like “week 2 vs week 12, it’s not the same” or some shit 

If AL makes it in, it's because they beat the defending national title and #1 ranked GA - that will be the narrative.  What have you done for me lately.  This is why style points matter later in the season.  They'll make the claim that one team is peaking and the other is blowing 20pt leads and limping past teams.  It's bullshit, but it's also clear as day this could happen.  

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7 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Yes, but the committee has said in the past that they take common opponents into consideration. 

That was a past committee.

This years committee can say “well we are valuing eye test more heavily over h2h” and no one can do anything about it.

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44 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Hornsby I think you're missing a potential scenario. What if Washington loses this weekend and then beats Oregon? They get in over us by virtue of beating Oregon twice?

Yep. I think this may be a sneaky path that could very well come to fruition. Plus you would be talking about Washington losing to an Oregon State team who probably drops the following game @ Oregon to end the season with 3 losses. Not sure how the committee could say that a 3 loss Oregon State is a better loss than a two loss OU. 

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58 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Hornsby I think you're missing a potential scenario. What if Washington loses this weekend and then beats Oregon? They get in over us by virtue of beating Oregon twice?

Yeah, I have played with that idea. I imagine we would go over them because of brand and money, but it would be far from a guarantee. Also I do not think Washington will beat Oregon. 

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37 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

If AL makes it in, it's because they beat the defending national title and #1 ranked GA - that will be the narrative.  What have you done for me lately.  This is why style points matter later in the season.  They'll make the claim that one team is peaking and the other is blowing 20pt leads and limping past teams.  It's bullshit, but it's also clear as day this could happen.  

But they will jump us over Oregon in that scenario in my opinion to avoid the controversy. So Bama beating Georgia is one of our strongest paths if FSU doesnt drop a game. 

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14 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Lot of football left to play for everyone.  I just want to win the next one to guarantee a shot at the conference for now.  

If we win 3 in a row and are left out then we can fire up the billboards and banners.

I think we need to win both to have a guaranteed shot unfortunately 

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10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

1 loss Georgia is a lock right?

Are they?

12-1 Alabama
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State
13-0 Washington
13-0 FSU

Georgia would be out in this scenario.

12-1 Alabama (SEC champ)
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State (B1G champ)
12-1 Washington/Oregon (Pac 12 champ)
12-1 or 13-0 FSU (ACC champ)
12-1 Texas (Big 12 champ)
12-1 Georgia (non champ)

I wouldn't want to be Georgia in this scenario. Outside looking in. 

Georgia would probably need both an 11-2 Big 12 champ Texas and an 11-2 Pac 12 champ Oregon (or a non-FSU ACC champ) to be in the discussion to remain in the top 4. 

12-1 Alabama
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State
11-2 Texas (means a loss to Texas Tech and a win over Ok State)
11-2 Oregon (means a loss to Oregon State and a win over UW)
12-1 FSU (means a loss to Florida and a win over Louisville)
12-1 Georgia

Edited by Js1
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1 hour ago, MotownHorn said:

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

 

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Yes. That's correct.

Because the statistics you're quoting don't correlate to winning football games very strongly.

 

And because I'm Plan II, I'm not going to let this slide. And because @BabaYaga and @closetohumping were foolish enough to +rep your foolishness, I'm tagging them, too.

You can dig through the web and find a lot of work on this topic, and while not everyone investigates the same statistics across the same games, to the extent that they do, they come up with similar results. I'm going to use this Reddit post largely because (1) the guy shows his work, and (2) the stat that correlates the most, on its own, is a great way to show the pitfall with all this -- that correlation and causation aren't the same thing.

But anyway. For posterity, in case Reddit dies before Surly does, and to save you a click:

Quote
Stat Record Win Pct
More Rush Atts 3954-969 (141 tied) 0.803
Fewer Turnovers 3174-849 (1041 tied) 0.789
Fewer Pass INTs 2806-808 (1450 tied) 0.776
More Rush TDs 2626-805 (1633 tied) 0.765
More Pass TDs 2645-988 (1431 tied) 0.728
Fewer Sacks Taken 3001-1198 (865 tied) 0.715
More Rush Yds 3581-1458 (25 tied) 0.711
Fewer Sack Yds Lost 3316-1522 (226 tied) 0.685
Fewer Fumbles Lost 2055-985 (2024 tied) 0.676
More Total Yds 3404-1642 (18 tied) 0.675
More First Downs 3150-1664 (250 tied) 0.654
Fewer Fumbles 2405-1415 (1244 tied) 0.630
Fewer Penalties 2531-1986 (547 tied) 0.560
More Net Pass Yds 2815-2233 (16 tied) 0.558
Fewer Penalty Yds 2718-2242 (104 tied) 0.548
More Pass Yds 2643-2403 (18 tied) 0.524
More Pass Cmp 2092-2695 (277 tied) 0.437
More Pass Att 1545-3365 (154 tied) 0.315

Note that this guy's stats and ones I've seen from Football Outsiders (RIP), actual research institutions, etc., more or less all show the same correlations and very similar numbers. And you're going to have to expand open that quote to scroll all the way down to where "pass yards" goes.

Pass yards gained has almost no impact on the outcome. Rush yards gained does. But rush yards gained pales in significance to turnovers, especially interceptions.

Now remind me. Against OU, what happened with the turnovers? Did one team have, say, a LOT more interceptions than the other one?

Now that top statistic, like I said above, shows that correlation is not equal to causation. Typically, if you have more rush attempts, it's because you're sitting on a lead already and are burning out the clock. But still. It's not exactly arcane divination to grasp that the team with the most turnovers usually loses the game, no matter how many yards they gained.

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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

But they will jump us over Oregon in that scenario in my opinion to avoid the controversy. So Bama beating Georgia is one of our strongest paths if FSU doesnt drop a game. 

this has been my game theory for awhile as well 

assuming bama and texas win out, committee will look for any opportunity to toss us both in there to avoid the controversy 

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5 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

this has been my game theory for awhile as well 

assuming bama and texas win out, committee will look for any opportunity to toss us both in there to avoid the controversy 

Yeah they will say "Texas won their conference championship and owns a head to head night road win over Alabama, the SEC champ. That is the most impressive win in the country and Alabama will get a chance at redemption should they meet again in the playoff championship." (Monster ratings if their is a rematch) Oregon fans miss out and cry. 

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19 hours ago, Fondren & Main said:

It’s kind of bullshit that Oregon didn’t fall after their last second loss while we did.  

Team A lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite to a team ranked 9 spots below them on a neutral site, while committing three turnovers. They managed to take a late lead as their opponent's offense struggled with miscues in the second half, only to offer absolutely no resistance against their time out-less opponent as they marched down for the win.

Team B lost by 3 as a 3 point road underdog to a team ranked one spot higher than them' i.e. the assessment of them essentially being equal played out. They were +1 in the TO margin, with 0 turnovers, and +10 mins in TOP. Their coach elected to pass on taking a FG a couple of times, opting to try to win the game on fourth down. It didn't work and they still drove the field and were in a position to win; it came down to a barely missed field goal.

Are these comparable situations?

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4 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah they will say "Texas won their conference championship and owns a head to head night road win over Alabama, the SEC champ. That is the most impressive win in the country and Alabama will get a chance at redemption should they meet again in the playoff championship." (Monster ratings if their is a rematch) Oregon fans miss out and cry. 

None of this shit matters if we lose to Iowa State.

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22 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

This is not even a playoff caliber team without Brooks, and with the jags that have been playing in the secondary and at OG.  We're about 4 players short.   Need to keep stacking recruiting classes and portal fill-ins.  

There is no "Playoff caliber team." There are teams that make the Playoff and then go take advantage of the opportunity and fucking win. 

This isn't boring, corporate bullshit like the NFL. Cfb is high delta variability and 18 year olds suddenly doing great or awful shit. Embrace it.

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Team A lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite to a team ranked 9 spots below them on a neutral site, while committing three turnovers. They managed to take a late lead as their opponent's offense struggled with miscues in the second half, only to offer absolutely no resistance against their time out-less opponent as they marched down for the win.

Team B lost by 3 as a 3 point road underdog to a team ranked one spot higher than them' i.e. the assessment of them essentially being equal played out. They were +1 in the TO margin, with 0 turnovers, and +10 mins in TOP. Their coach elected to pass on taking a FG a couple of times, opting to try to win the game on fourth down. It didn't work and they still drove the field and were in a position to win; it came down to a barely missed field goal.

Are these comparable situations?

The rankings at the time (coaches and AP) absolutely punished Oregon the same as us when we lost - we both dropped to 11 and worked our way back up as other teams lost. First CFP rankings came out 2 week after they lost and 3 weeks after we lost. The movement back up and other losses by other teams was baked in by the time the first rankings came out. 

Confused about this narrative Oregon wasn’t punished or moved down for losing. They were. 

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20 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:


I'm curious what the voters do if Bama beats Georgia and both end with 1 loss. Do they take them both as they have several times before? They took both Michigan and Ohio State last year. Bama and Georgia the year before. We beat Bama head to head. I guess the committee could say it was before Milroe got good but we still did it and on the road..

 

So it's not pussy to talk about this kind stuff? Cool.

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2 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

I mean his premise was shot down multiple times. 

Ohio State should both have 0 losses when they face off next week. Winner of that is 95% likely to win the Big 10 undefeated and get that bid.

Let's say Bama beats Georgia to win the SEC with 1 loss.

Oregon beats Washington to win the Pac-12 with 1 loss.

FSU wins out and gets in automatically.

Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 with 1 loss.

Which 2 teams do they take from Bama, UT, Oregon? I'm not asking which 2 you want or deserve it the most. Because we all know the committee doesn't always work like that. Oregon winning the Pac-12 means they beat a probably undefeated top 4 Washington team. That is quality win for sure. Bama winning the SEC means they beat a probably undefeated top 2 Georgia team. Definitely a quality win. We will beat some bumfuck Big 12 team with no real national respect because our conference is trash. We will easily have the lesser conference championship win of those teams remaining. And we all know there is no way the committee leaves out the SEC.

So then I'd say it comes down to Oregon and Texas for the final bid. Not sure who they think has the best resume overall. 

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I can see it now , lots of noise about Georgia being repeat Champs 

Bama beats Georgia and is ranked 5 

Texas who beat Bama is ranked 6 because Bama beat the 2x defending Champs 

For consistency Georgia falls to ... 4 because they lost to the team that beat the 2x defending Champs 

Edited by BigHornedLurker
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