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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

She's not a "liberal," she's just another disinterested cog. 

This.  We can't force people to understand the dire situation we are in.  If we have to learn this the hard way, so be it.

Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

She's not a "liberal," she's just another disinterested cog. 

Her views are very liberal, and she's voted D in every election.

But define her as you will... I'm not here to defend her, I'm just passing along one piece of anecdotal information.

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Posted

Not to state the obvious, but you need to nominate someone people want to vote for. "He's not Donald Trump" is not good enough when he looks and acts like your great-grandfather who was just put in a home. 

72% of voters don't think Biden should be running (and just based on all the people I've talked to about this, I'm surprised it's not higher). Half of democrats think that. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Not to state the obvious, but you need to nominate someone people want to vote for. "He's not Donald Trump" is not good enough when he looks and acts like your great-grandfather who was just put in a home. 

72% of voters don't think Biden should be running (and just based on all the people I've talked to about this, I'm surprised it's not higher). Half of democrats think that. 

If we would have gotten state of the Union Joe instead of weekend at Bernie's Joe on debate night this would be over. 

It was a huge miscalculation 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, immamac said:

If we would have gotten state of the Union Joe instead of weekend at Bernie's Joe on debate night this would be over. 

It was a huge miscalculation 

Honestly, I uttered my first "oh my god" when he came shuffling out like C3PO, and mumbled something unintelligible into the mic. Five minutes later and I was hiding my eyes. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, immamac said:

If we would have gotten state of the Union Joe instead of weekend at Bernie's Joe on debate night this would be over. 

It was a huge miscalculation 

In retrospect, the Biden team should never have agreed to let CNN get away without fact-checking. Hold firm there and enjoy the optics when Trump pulls out and then blast that shit everywhere -- "Trump bailed because they were going to fact-check his lying ass." This race would really be over. Oh, what could've been.

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Posted

Well, I did my informal poll of undecided independents in my social circle. If something doesn’t change their mind, here are the results:

2 - not voting, Biden -2

1 - voting Liberaterian Biden -1

1 - voting Trump Biden -1

1 - voting Biden anyway +1

Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

All this "the race would've been over if Biden had won the debate" shit is literally insane. Did you people just wake up from a fifty year coma?

Wasn't about winning. Doesn't matter about winning. Matters about not appearing as a corpse on stage. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Maybe y'all should all quit being such pussies.  Biden or whomever else, I don't care, gets my vote in November.  I'm voting against fascism.  Full stop.  

So am I, I just have no confidence that this guy that we saw in the debate...

TELEMMGLPICT000383658240_17195551268580_

...is going to be equipped to defeat the rise of fascism, and I'm pissed at the opposition party for offering this cadaver up as the best they can muster as a defense for Democracy.  Did he call out any of Trump's lies when given the opportunity to be his fact checker in the debate?  Maybe late, but not before anyone turned off the shit show.  I hope to hell I am wrong about Joe's ability to win.

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Posted
Just now, Goredho said:

So am I, I just have no confidence that this guy that we saw in the debate...

TELEMMGLPICT000383658240_17195551268580_

...is going to be equipped to defeat the rise of fascism, and I'm pissed at the opposition party for offering this cadaver up as the best they can muster as a defense for Democracy.  Did he call out any of Trump's lies when given the opportunity to be his fact checker in the debate?  Maybe late, but not before anyone turned off the shit show.  I hope to hell I am wrong about Joe's ability to win.

I'm starting to think the only person who can beat Trump in November not named Joe Biden has to have the last name Obama.

This is a mess.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Newsome would be a combo of too late in the game to implement his plan and too divisive. Michelle could win. 

Most people in this country don't have any idea who Gavin Newsome is.

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Posted

To all my fellow Hispanics out there.  To all the women, people of color, the LGBTQ community, the recently immigrated from Asia, and to all the marginalized communities who vote for Trump or don't vote at all.....I want you to know---you have agency, you deserve respect and have rights.  And the last thing you'll ever see will be my hand waving at you as you are sent off for re-education or deportation.  I won't even have a moment to say "I told you so" because I'll busied pushing your children onto the bus.  

This is how we've always done it.  Before we head off to make trouble, we liquidate our "lesser" citizens within our own borders, even if they supported the ruling party.  It's a demonstrative loyalty process.  And it works every time.  If you a woman or minority, and don't get out to vote against Trump, know that you a part of a pattern of history.  You really won't like what happens next.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Just for grins, here's what the polls looked like on July 1, 2020, vs today... spoiler: it's not encouraging.

image.png.1d5db184ef10790a414a6b1ca9c4d8ce.png

image.png.17506a9e6af7b2f2090a3276bff7ae80.png

Huh. Trump's numbers are essentially the same. The problem is the other direction. 

Posted

lol at all the ‘stop being pussies and vote for Biden’ comments.  People here will.  Theres a LOT of low educated voters etc that will just stay home.  And Trump will get his lunatics out.  Not caring your candidate looks and sounds like a nursing home resident is a choice.  ‘BUT the other guy does too!’  Be better?  Or not.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Huh. Trump's numbers are essentially the same. The problem is the other direction. 

Yup, and his name is Kennedy.

Posted

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

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Posted
Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

lol at all the ‘stop being pussies and vote for Biden’ comments.  People here will.  Theres a LOT of low educated voters etc that will just stay home.  And Trump will get his lunatics out.  Not caring your candidate looks and sounds like a nursing home resident is a choice.  ‘BUT the other guy does too!’  Be better?  Or not.  

They'd stay home for Newsome or anyone else they haven't heard about. Biden has a 4-year record that is objectively good by most metrics, including the ones the right constantly focuses on. A new comer this late in the game will just make apathetic voters more apathetic. There's still a chance to get a few to the polls in November with trump still talking like a lunatic all the time. That doesn't work for a newcomer that the apathetic folks don't know. That is why I think replacing him hurts way more than it would help. Especially with Joe looking fine again in public appearances.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

I disagree with that. Regardless, Obama clearly has much more name recognition and her husband was one of the more centrist, competent leaders I can remember. I think she’d wipe the floor with him and energize liberals and moderates. 

I think most of us would love that. Problem is, Michelle wouldn't. 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Newsome would be a combo of too late in the game to implement his plan and too divisive. Michelle could win. 

She’s not going to fucking run. Ever. Let it go. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They'd stay home for Newsome or anyone else they haven't heard about. Biden has a 4-year record that is objectively good by most metrics, including the ones the right constantly focuses on. A new comer this late in the game will just make apathetic voters more apathetic. There's still a chance to get a few to the polls in November with trump still talking like a lunatic all the time. That doesn't work for a newcomer that the apathetic folks don't know. That is why I think replacing him hurts way more than it would help. Especially with Joe looking fine again in public appearances.

Joe stepping aside for anyone but Harris is going to push more people not to vote or vote third party bc “the DNC rigged it so make sure Bernie couldn’t win again” or some shit. It’s Biden or Harris. No one else. 

Posted

The only way Michelle entertains entering the race is if the Bidens make that a stipulation for stepping him down. Again though, she's a black liberal female. That's a bigger boogeyman to racists and passively racist people that claim to be moderates than feeble Uncle Joe. But I feel she has zero desire to be president. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

we're proper fucked, we're either headed to the Mad Max or Star Trek timelines 

It's not a great movie, but Elysium seems like one of the most plausible dystopian futures, given current trends.

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Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

JFC, if Michelle Obama wanted to hold office she would have run by now. Why do people keep bringing up her name? 

Because people are in panic mode.

Shit got real last week. Biden got a layup question in the debate about abortion, and five seconds later he was talking about "illegals" crossing the border and killing people. People are freaked out man.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Because people are in panic mode.

Shit got real last week. Biden got a layup question in the debate about abortion, and five seconds later he was talking about "illegals" crossing the border and killing people. People are freaked out man.

I don't really understand why people think the freak out is in the lost debate. Bad debates happen and they've used that defense/card. The issue is that Biden isn't in front of a camera or doing talkshows all the god damned time and the one time he was on TV for a substantial amount of time since the SOTU he was barely coherent and clearly unfit to hold his current position. 

It wasn't just bad for RE-ELECTION, had this happened in 2022 he would be under extreme pressure for people to push the 25th amendment button. 

You know it's fucking bad when Trump doesn't even dunk on Biden for being senile, he legitimately feels bad for him and knows that it's not Biden's fault and it's really fucked up to pick on him. 

Why is it that you think the Trump sphere has been silent on this outside of fueling the fire for democrats to replace him? Trump himself is hardly silent on anything, especially something as low hanging fruit as this. It's really a fucked up thing. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s not going to fucking run. Ever. Let it go. 

This wishcasting is getting tiresome. We've moved from actual officeholders to a former first lady who has never run for any elected office. What's next? Y'all gonna start wishing for the Rock? 

Posted

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

Arizona:

Spoiler

image.png.9e89070e9bbcf11788ecacc331292ba2.png

image.png.d1e6c7f153ff58732f1176f6d49ef359.png

 

Florida:

Spoiler

image.png.47033c06bb5dec35c93768fd9cb9513c.png

image.png.7c8cbfe3bf6802cbb4bcc001f3ec3c41.png

Georgia:

Spoiler

image.png.66a72c0fe0f295d63f32aeedb4a516af.png

image.png.a4f4c5c5e761471abd0a66676516bb2a.png

Michigan:

Spoiler

image.png.5b4c5a0eb558561a1819f90b06127b3d.png

image.png.268ece106f2d09d7a7a5fad05a0402a8.png

Minnesota:

Spoiler

image.png.deb5d078ac1ba09b7f793121b899be6a.png

image.png.a8b7219c43931b3da2f1c92da391fb74.png

Nevada:

Spoiler

image.png.e28df004b701354222249bc5b13dabf3.png

image.png.d64ab31572f050d0c59b27673597bf2f.png

North Carolina:

Spoiler

image.png.2867cd853fb498b676a3a9cce318b077.png

image.png.54e7169ca2b2b76581f1a013ff221330.png

Ohio:

Spoiler

image.png.64efb772e6b2d7f18d4a1e2d4d7b26bb.png

image.png.2b36ba52f7d50feed6db0177f1599682.png

Pennsylvania:

Spoiler

image.png.c3fb1f1122b0f6b5e28ba9bd12058187.png

image.png.a42b803b673bdfbb87c096a8d42e908c.png

Wisconsin:

Spoiler

image.png.879df895b868dbf28e712ca3a3c3bf06.png

image.png.e5b53fa0169c359e64e461221af42ad3.png

 

Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

 

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

Posted
35 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Most people in this country don't have any idea who Gavin Newsome is.

They know where California is, and they know what reaction they've been trained to make every time they hear the words "California politics".

People from Wisconsin who are okay with abortion and are okay with gay people getting married and who want affordable healthcare still will never vote for a slick-haired California Democrat. "Too extreme." Propaganda fucking works.

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Posted
1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

Arizona:

  Hide contents

image.png.9e89070e9bbcf11788ecacc331292ba2.png

image.png.d1e6c7f153ff58732f1176f6d49ef359.png

 

Florida:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.47033c06bb5dec35c93768fd9cb9513c.png

image.png.7c8cbfe3bf6802cbb4bcc001f3ec3c41.png

Georgia:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.66a72c0fe0f295d63f32aeedb4a516af.png

image.png.a4f4c5c5e761471abd0a66676516bb2a.png

Michigan:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.5b4c5a0eb558561a1819f90b06127b3d.png

image.png.268ece106f2d09d7a7a5fad05a0402a8.png

Minnesota:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.deb5d078ac1ba09b7f793121b899be6a.png

image.png.a8b7219c43931b3da2f1c92da391fb74.png

Nevada:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.e28df004b701354222249bc5b13dabf3.png

image.png.d64ab31572f050d0c59b27673597bf2f.png

North Carolina:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.2867cd853fb498b676a3a9cce318b077.png

image.png.54e7169ca2b2b76581f1a013ff221330.png

Ohio:

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.64efb772e6b2d7f18d4a1e2d4d7b26bb.png

image.png.2b36ba52f7d50feed6db0177f1599682.png

Pennsylvania:

  Hide contents

image.png.c3fb1f1122b0f6b5e28ba9bd12058187.png

image.png.a42b803b673bdfbb87c096a8d42e908c.png

Wisconsin:

  Hide contents

image.png.879df895b868dbf28e712ca3a3c3bf06.png

image.png.e5b53fa0169c359e64e461221af42ad3.png

 

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

Not sure I follow.  Trumps numbers have basically stayed the same... it's Biden's numbers that have dropped.

Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

10-12 point drops across the board in swing states? What would be bad enough?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

Yeah, for anyone who has been following the polls this has been the case all year. It's not like Biden was up before the debate and then cratered.

Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

Just providing information... I'd assume Biden's team is aware.  What they decide to do with the information is entirely up to them, but we're the ones who are going to find out when they fuck around.

I've stated this before, but the fact is I'm a straight white, cis, male, with relatively good means, so I'll be fine either way.   My fear is for my friends who don't fit in those boxes... which is about 50% of them.

Posted
7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah, for anyone who has been following the polls this has been the case all year. It's not like Biden was up before the debate and then cratered.

Not to mention the supports of the out party tend to answer polls because they're "angrier" and more likely to voice their displeasure.  But those 2020 polls were fools gold.  

Compare the now polls to the actual results and I'm more inclined to talk.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

Yep, I care about one thing this election -- defeating the rise of fascism.  I don't give a shit about Biden, how great he should be viewed given what he has accomplished or how things would be if we had an intelligent and educated populace.  There's the way the world should be and there's the way the world is.  Dems and people here need to quit operating as if the world is as it should be and start operating as to how the world really is.  Too many voters think the Dem option is an escaped dementia patient.  Because he acted like one.  Live.  On national TV.  While juxtaposed against his Fascist opponent that was free to spew his propaganda to voters.  Grandpa stood there on the right drooling on himself and then acted confused and befuddled when he had the opportunity to respond.

I wish the voters weren't stupid.  I wish the media were more willing to challenge the lies.  I wish Trump wasn't a narcissistic aspiring despot.  I wish the Supreme Court wouldn't be his air cover in the judicial system.  I wish Republicans weren't willing to risk it all to achieve some ultimate ideological victory.  I wish there wasn't a well-oiled and unified machine operating to dispose of democracy in this country.  But what I wish and what is are not the same thing.  Those are all part of the context of reality that we find ourselves in that won't be changed between now and November.

So given that reality, what the fuck are you going to do about it, Democrats?  Playing this prevent defense to protect JoeB while already behind in the 2nd half isn't going to work.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

Who are you voting for?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yep, I care about one thing this election -- defeating the rise of fascism.  I don't give a shit about Biden, how great he should be viewed given what he has accomplished or how things would be if we had an intelligent and educated populace.  There's the way the world should be and there's the way the world is.  Dems and people here need to quit operating as if the world is as it should be and start operating as to how the world really is.  Too many voters think the Dem option is an escaped dementia patient.  Because he acted like one.  Live.  On national TV.  While juxtaposed against his Fascist opponent that was free to spew his propaganda to voters.  Grandpa stood there on the right drooling on himself and then acted confused and befuddled when he had the opportunity to respond.

I wish the voters weren't stupid.  I wish the media were more willing to challenge the lies.  I wish Trump wasn't a narcissistic aspiring despot.  I wish the Supreme Court wouldn't be his air cover in the judicial system.  I wish Republicans weren't willing to risk it all to achieve some ultimate ideological victory.  I wish there wasn't a well-oiled and unified machine operating to dispose of democracy in this country.  But what I wish and what is are not the same thing.  Those are all part of the context of reality that we find ourselves in that won't be changed between now and November.

So given that reality, what the fuck are you going to do about it, Democrats?  Playing this prevent defense to protect JoeB while already behind in the 2nd half isn't going to work.

You don't get it. None of us are saying that it's actually fine that the Democratic nominee looks like the cryptkeeper and clearly has dementia. We're not giving Biden the worshipful Notorious RBG "he should get to choose when to step aside" treatment.  I personally don't give a fuck about Joe Biden.

What we are doing is explaining why all of y'all's magical alternatives are actually even worse options if your goal is to beat Trump. The only plausible alternative to Biden is Kamala Harris. If he decides to step aside and she's our nominee, I'd be fine with that, but there's no reason to think it materially changes our chances of beating Trump. And most of the people demanding an alternative now don't want it to be her.  That's precisely why so many of you are dreaming impossible brokered convention scenarios. Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris without even running in any primaries. And Michelle Obama doesn't want the fucking job, and even if she did she suffers from most of the same electoral weaknesses (black woman) that are the reason y'all don't want Harris to be the nominee. At least she's not as publicly weird as Harris usually is, but there's actually no evidence that she'd be more likely to beat Trump than Biden is.

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Posted
1 hour ago, usmc0331horn said:

Only weird online people care about the debate and it doesn't reflect how ordinary people feel.

Really? Because all of my friends (including those completely uninterested in politics) have been inundated with non-stop clips of Biden looking incapable of holding office or stringing together a sentence. Believe it or not, that matters.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris

Congratulations, you've just identified the issue with the Democratic Party.  It shouldn't be about who's been on the bench longest. 

In 2016 that was Clinton, so the DNC protected and promoted her, even though the electorate said they didn't want her.  That unforced error led to Trump and 3 uber-conservative, and young justices at SCOTUS.  

Then we dragged the oldest person we could out of retirement to run against Trump in 2020, and squeaked by with about 40k votes over 5 states, even after a disastrous 4 years under Trump.  Now they're running a corpse.

It's madness.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, ATXhorn17 said:

Really? Because all of my friends (including those completely uninterested in politics) have been inundated with non-stop clips of Biden looking incapable of holding office or stringing together a sentence. Believe it or not, that matters.

Do they have the same reaction to Trump babbling a bunch of lies and nonsense? The right supports and emboldens him through everything. The left is now undermining their own guy despite his actual words and accomplishments. Replacing him now is just a sign of surrender. He looked fine the next morning on the campaign trail. Why no mention of that? Because we pretend that debates are something special, they aren't anymore. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Do they have the same reaction to Trump babbling a bunch of lies and nonsense? The right supports and emboldens him through everything. The left is now undermining their own guy despite his actual words and accomplishments. Replacing him now is just a sign of surrender. He looked fine the next morning on the campaign trail. Why no mention of that? Because we pretend that debates are something special, they aren't anymore. 

We get that you'd love the world to be fair, but we're just pointing out the obvious truths about how the world actually operates.  

Yes, in a perfect world, a corpse should be enough to beat Trump.  Sadly, that's just not that case and many of us aren't "Johnny come Latelys" to the idea that Biden shouldn't be running in 2024.  I was calling pointing this out the moment it became clear Trump was running again.  But was called foolish and reactionary by members of this board... some of the same folks who are still poo-pooing the idea.

But the Dem party is completely incompetent and thinks people should wait until it's "their turn". 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

You don't get it. None of us are saying that it's actually fine that the Democratic nominee looks like the cryptkeeper and clearly has dementia. We're not giving Biden the worshipful Notorious RBG "he should get to choose when to step aside" treatment.  I personally don't give a fuck about Joe Biden.

What we are doing is explaining why all of y'all's magical alternatives are actually even worse options if your goal is to beat Trump. The only plausible alternative to Biden is Kamala Harris. If he decides to step aside and she's our nominee, I'd be fine with that, but there's no reason to think it materially changes our chances of beating Trump. And most of the people demanding an alternative now don't want it to be her.  That's precisely why so many of you are dreaming impossible brokered convention scenarios. Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris without even running in any primaries. And Michelle Obama doesn't want the fucking job, and even if she did she suffers from most of the same electoral weaknesses (black woman) that are the reason y'all don't want Harris to be the nominee. At least she's not as publicly weird as Harris usually is, but there's actually no evidence that she'd be more likely to beat Trump than Biden is.

I get that the building's engulfed in flames, Fire Marshall Grandpa is fumbling with the fire hose trying to figure out which end to hold and that you and the Democratic party are telling us no one else more capable can take the fire hose from Grandpa to attempt to put out the fire.  Because Grandpa was elected Fire Marshall and there are no contingencies for replacing him when he inevitably got too old to perform and so we all just have to be patient with him as we're incinerated.

That is a bullshit and unacceptable answer.



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