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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, troph said:

whether you get some loan forgiveness or not, the unemployment should not have resulted in that outcome. no way. these are backed by the government, guaranteed, and with that added assurance should come more benefits for the borrower. I think that situation was total bullshit.

Used up my 6 months of deferment (interest still accrues obviously) and then the penalties began. Never used the income-based repayment because it wasn’t ever a significant savings and would have added so many years to repayment.  Also, about a third of it was private student loan. 
 

The fact that I was facing these decisions as a 23 and 24 year old probably didn’t help.  Benefit of hindsight, I might make different decisions starting with making sure to work part time during school to minimize my debt. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted
57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think it's reasonable to look at margin of victory in certain states.  It was mighty slim in a few cases.

Arizona -- < 11K for Biden

Wisconsin -- < 21K for Biden

Georgia -- < 12K for Biden (hence the phone call)

Does that tell the whole story?  No, but neither does 81M vs 74M.

And in case anyone wants another kick in the nuts, those 3 states accounted for 37 electoral votes.  Flip all 3, with the other states remaining the same, assuming I'm doing the math right, that puts Biden and Trump at 269 each, throwing the election to the House, with each state getting a vote.  Biden V Trump went 25-25 by state count.  They have to keep at it even past Jan 20.  Smells like a clusterfuck to me.

Less than 44,000 votes out of 155M.

Posted
58 minutes ago, troph said:

dems have until their convention to get this shit right and in the meantime they better be running on generic Dem vs. Trump to get the anti-trump sentiment higher. I'm really not expecting a well thought out strategy nor a well executed strategy between now and then anyway. it's a cluster fuck and everyone is to blame (read that last part as howard hughes with the music to make yourself feel better).

Howard Hughes? I don’t follow. I wonder if you meant Howard Jones but he said no one is to blame.

But he also said things can only get better, so there’s that.

 

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Used up my 6 months of deferment (interest still accrues obviously) and then the penalties began. Never used the income-based repayment because it wasn’t ever a significant savings and would have added so many years to repayment. 
 

The fact that I was facing these decisions as a 23 and 24 year old probably didn’t help.  Benefit of hindsight, I might make different decisions starting with making sure to work part time during school to minimize my debt. 

yeah but the programs are built on the idea that we finance education for employment for the betterment of the individual AND society. but spending money on penalties and accelerated or increased interest is not serving that goal. No fault unemployment should have much longer deferment and with the added government guarantees, any loans that were formerly subsidized in college should be subsidized during unemployment. the point being, even then the programs probably weren't progressive enough.  these never were home loans, or car loans, they were government programs and they should have stayed that way and frankly in your case were not favorable enough.

Posted
2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Howard Hughes? I don’t follow. I wonder if you meant Howard Jones but he said no one is to blame.

But he also said things can only get better, so there’s that.

 

that was my point, feel better by saying no one is to blame even though everyone is to blame, or just feel better because it's an awesome song and you can sing what I said to the tune. it was a witty play on words type joke that clearly wasn't a good one.

Posted
1 minute ago, troph said:

yeah but the programs are built on the idea that we finance education for employment for the betterment of the individual AND society. but spending money on penalties and accelerated or increased interest is not serving that goal. No fault unemployment should have much longer deferment and with the added government guarantees, any loans that were formerly subsidized in college should be subsidized during unemployment. the point being, even then the programs probably weren't progressive enough.  these never were home loans, or car loans, they were government programs and they should have stayed that way and frankly in your case were not favorable enough.

Believe me, it felt like life was over before it began. And then they tell you things like the school repayment rate affects how borrowers from that school are treated, or some such, and you feel like such a failure for not being able to make it work. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

And in case anyone wants another kick in the nuts, those 3 states accounted for 37 electoral votes.  Flip all 3, with the other states remaining the same, assuming I'm doing the math right, that puts Biden and Trump at 269 each, throwing the election to the House, with each state getting a vote.  Biden V Trump went 25-25 by state count.  They have to keep at it even past Jan 20.  Smells like a clusterfuck to me.

Less than 44,000 votes out of 155M.

If Wisconsin flips, Michigan and PA probably flipped and it’s already over.  It’s not going to be a tie 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, troph said:

that was my point, feel better by saying no one is to blame even though everyone is to blame, or just feel better because it's an awesome song and you can sing what I said to the tune. it was a witty play on words type joke that clearly wasn't a good one.

It was a fun little nostalgia trip anyway. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Believe me, it felt like life was over before it began. And then they tell you things like the school repayment rate affects how borrowers from that school are treated, or some such, and you feel like such a failure for not being able to make it work. 

I hate that for you.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If Wisconsin flips, Michigan and PA probably flipped and it’s already over.  It’s not going to be a tie 

Yeah, I get that.  But even w/o that, it screams "SCOTUS" at some point, and we all know how that goes.

Posted
27 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The sad part is the stability of the country is still orders of magnitude better than when Trump was in office. Like shit anyone could do that job if they trust the right advisors and appoint the right people.

Biden couldn't put together the same cabinet or administration today. Riding out the fumes of your administration isn't the worst way to retire, but it's no way to lead. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Mayor Pete eviscerated Vance on Maher last night.  Dems need to pull from that playbook and hammer it.  

"Too gay" 

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Posted
Just now, A-Tex Devil said:

Not saying he should be on the ticket.  But just put the same message Pete laid out on loop. 

Yeah and I'm telling you what the response is. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I get that.  But even w/o that, it screams "SCOTUS" at some point, and we all know how that goes.

Also the entire state delegation in the House votes, it’s not that state won = automatic vote for that candidate. So House races matter a lot.  Peltola winning AK-AL is a vote for Biden and not Trump because she’s delegation of 1, despite Trump winning Alaska.

House races would matter bigly at that point. Gerrymandering has ensured even swing states like Wisconsin have a GOP-lean in their delegation. Trump could win NV, but it’s built to be 3-1 Dem

Wisconsin - currently 5-2 R with an R vacancy (though 2 of those seats are pretty middling R, so it could theoretically be 4-4 in a good year)

Michigan - 7-6 D

Pennsylvania - 9-8 D

NH - 2-0 D

Arizona - 6-3 R 

Etc, etc. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also the entire state delegation in the House votes, it’s not that state won = automatic vote for that candidate. So House races matter a lot.  Peltola winning AK-AL is a vote for Biden and not Trump because she’s delegation of 1, despite Trump winning Alaska.

House races would matter bigly at that point. Gerrymandering has ensured even swing states like Wisconsin have a GOP-lean in their delegation. Trump could win NV, but it’s built to be 3-1 Dem

Wisconsin - currently 5-2 R with an R vacancy (though 2 of those seats are pretty middling R, so it could theoretically be 4-4 in a good year)

Michigan - 7-6 D

Pennsylvania - 9-8 D

NH - 2-0 D

Arizona - 6-3 R 

Etc, etc. 

Appreciate all this info.  I will now commence drinking and watching The Open.

Posted
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

The Leroy Jenkins strategy in which you take no outside input to inform your decisions. 
Bold, maybe.

Stupid, yes.

Losing strategy. We’ll see? [probably though]


if I had 81 mil votes the last election, I’m saying come at me Bro

its not like trump has become even a little likable and the entire party wants to go hard right 

 

they’re both too old and losing it. May the best vegetable win 

Posted
47 minutes ago, immamac said:

It's not a conspiracy theory. He's been mush brained for a while but could at least pull his shit together for major events and scripted talking points. 

The NATO summit presser was BARELY passable. It was fucking sad. He didn't completely fuck it, but it was embarrassing and showed significant weakness at the global scale. This isn't conspiracy theory nonsense. This is confirmed by the majority of the presser questions being about his mental fitness and not NATO related. It was bad. 

Biden looks terrible and the fact that it’s a legal issue for him to stay in to get on the ballot doesn’t dismiss the fact that a lot of voters think he is going to drop dead so they don’t even want to vote. 

I’m not even a Kamala fan but I’d rather have her than Biden if it’s the only way to have him step down. Dems who are not united about her being the candidate can lean into the whole “if you think we hate her now, wait until y’all get a load of her!” to annoy the fuck out of MAGA. It helps push voter turnout on the idea that Kamala annoys the fuck out of the GOP with all of her laughing and unburdenedness. 

 

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Posted
Just now, MrBig said:

Biden looks terrible and the fact that it’s a legal issue for him to stay in to get on the ballot doesn’t dismiss the fact that a lot of voters think he is going to drop dead so they don’t even want to vote. 

I’m not even a Kamala fan but I’d rather have her than Biden if it’s the only way to have him step down. Dems who are not united about her being the candidate can lean into the whole “if you think we hate her now, wait until y’all get a load of her!” to annoy the fuck out of MAGA. It helps push voter turnout on the idea that Kamala annoys the fuck out of the GOP with all of her laughing and unburdenedness. 

 

The main issue at hand is Biden. The eventual nominee after Biden actually doesn't matter. 

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Posted

Anyone else sitting around today wondering what this Saturday will bring us given how different things became after last Saturday? Is Saturday the new Tuesday?

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Posted
Just now, mdmost said:

Anyone else sitting around today wondering what this Saturday will bring us given how different things became after last Saturday? Is Saturday the new Tuesday?

I’m drinking a mimosa in the Reno airport. You saying I should be eating a bird instead?

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Posted
2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

The Leroy Jenkins strategy in which you take no outside input to inform your decisions. 
Bold, maybe.

Stupid, yes.

Losing strategy. We’ll see? [probably though]

Not my strategy!

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Why is Trump anti 2A ?????

 

I’m laughing at that idiots clothing choices.  Khakis.  Blue blazer fitted like a parka.  MLB cap.  I can only assume sketchers kicks…dress for sucksass.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Posted
3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

At the debates? To his face? Biden's not going to do it now. He did a great job of it in 2020 and it helped him win an election. Biden couldn't refute much of anything now. Mayor Pete could sit up there, not getting angry or raising his voice, and calmly tell people every single lie and why it's a lie. That's my point. Biden can't deliver that rebuttal anymore. It should be really easy to destroy Trump in public to his face. Maybe it makes little difference. If anything, I hope they shove Pete out there as much as possible. 

It’s a chance for a rebrand. People Pete’s age/Gretchen’s age. JD Vance pick (his age) also a factor in why he was selected. Parties need to go young or younger 35-60. A chance to cut some of the chaff off both parties. This age group I feel a lot more hopeful about than 60-80. I just feel like it’s time. Time for the next generation to speak and share their ideas. Not be beholden to the Boomers. The elders of the society. The ones that were that age in the 70’s and 80’s. We need this badly. I’m not suggesting throwing Pelosi and Schumer away I’m just saying it is time for others to have more power. More say. Let’s try new things and try them a different way. 

Posted
32 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Who knows how things fall out but she’s a strong possibility for future races ….

 

If by "future," you mean the one in November, yes.  

She does a great job of leaning into the issues rather than tap dancing around them.  She's honestly the most talented pol I've seen since Obama.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

It’s a chance for a rebrand. People Pete’s age/Gretchen’s age. JD Vance pick (his age) also a factor in why he was selected. Parties need to go young or younger 35-60. A chance to cut some of the chaff off both parties. This age group I feel a lot more hopeful about than 60-80. I just feel like it’s time. Time for the next generation to speak and share their ideas. Not be beholden to the Boomers. The elders of the society. The ones that were that age in the 70’s and 80’s. We need this badly. I’m not suggesting throwing Pelosi and Schumer away I’m just saying it is time for others to have more power. More say. Let’s try new things and try them a different way. 

Lol.  It will never be ‘our time’ until we vote.  We just talk shit then go eat mushrooms and cry online.  

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Any trumper, please explain this to me …..

 

Assuming that these numbers are accurate, net oil and petroleum exports increased under Trump by roughly 9 quadrillion Btu in the 3 years between 2017-2020 (3 quadrillion Btu per year). Under Biden, it increased by around 1.2 quadrillion Btu in the 3 years from 2020-2023 (0.4 quadrillion Btu per year). So more than 7 times the net increase annually under Trump as under Biden, which you would expect given their respective policies.

Not making a political point, just a statistical one. People need to learn how to read charts better. For a New York Times contributing writer, that is either an embarrassing misinterpretation or an egregious misrepresentation of the data.

Edited by Voluminous Banality
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Posted
7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Any trumper, please explain this to me …..

 

Facts don’t matter.  I hate ‘X’ and he will persecute ‘X’ to the fullest.  Done.  

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Posted
9 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Any trumper, please explain this to me …..

 

Facts don’t matter anymore.

How does no one get this?

A democrat could have record oil production, reduce the deficit, reduce crime to record levels, and propose the most draconian boarder security measure ever….. and it wouldn’t make a shit.

Because yeah….. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  It will never be ‘our time’ until we vote.  We just talk shit then go eat mushrooms and cry online.  

Mushrooms make you sad I guess? I’m cool with my caramels and gummies. I have voted every election since 18. I have never voted straight ticket. It’s our time damnit! Lol. I really do think that we should moving forward (assuming there is a future) have early conventions and mini-primaries to decide our candidates. It might be awkward at first. But I think it will get more people to vote if they could see the process at a convention and not just rah rah rah shit. Gives you more skin in the game and groups would have to bargain out in the open. 
 

we are at 35 Democratic members of Congress now. It’s not a blue wave…more of a leaky faucet that floods the house. I think though Monday will be end game. Unless he signals he will be dropping out tomorrow night. 

Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Assuming that these numbers are accurate, net oil and petroleum exports increased under Trump by roughly 9 quadrillion Btu in the 3 years between 2017-2020 (3 quadrillion Btu per year). Under Biden, it increased by around 1.2 quadrillion Btu in the 3 years from 2020-2023 (0.4 quadrillion Btu per year). So more than 7 times the net increase annually under Trump as under Biden, which you would expect given their respective policies.

Not making a political point, just a statistical one. People need to learn how to read charts better. For a New York Times contributing writer, that is either an embarrassing misinterpretation or an egregious misrepresentation of the data.

It isn't a misinterpretation at all. The US was net importer under Trump. It did not become a net exporter until Biden's term. It is also simultaneously true that trend started prior to Biden's term. And it even started before Trump's term. 

See chart below. The downward trend in net imports started in G.W.'s second term, and continued fairly consistently through Obama's terms, Trump's term, and now Biden's. The real conclusion is that Presidents don't actually have that much of direct effect on the economy. But, if others are trying to credit Trump for this, it is absolutely fair to show that the US wasn't a net exporter until Biden. Oh, and that blimp upward in Biden's term is clearly Covid related. 

Screenshot_20240720-090230.thumb.png.3869f699fb492813e47fa4e5c35e9ac1.png

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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