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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Northampton has voted for the winner of the state very year since 1912 except 1968, 2000, 2004 - true PA bellwether 

Trump won it 50-46 in 2016 and Biden won it 50-49 

Erie was also 50-49 Biden in 2020 and 48-46 Trump in 2016

The county polls are the real good news for Harris IMHO.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I feel like his wife is either extremely mentally challenged or she needs to be asked to blink twice if she needs help. Insane.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Patrick told her to cut the shit; that he had a locker room of black men to lead and to quit crapping on his brand.

Frank Ocean M GIF

 

 

I don’t see Mahomies saying that at all. Not even close. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Frank Ocean M GIF

 

 

I don’t see Mahomies saying that at all. Not even close. 

I do. Somebody in his family is a narcissist and it’s not him. He’s been clear that he doesn’t share his wife’s conservative East Texas political proclivities:

 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

I feel like his wife is either extremely mentally challenged or she needs to be asked to blink twice if she needs help. Insane.

If she doesn’t have a “go bag” then she needs one.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

If I'm feeling spicy around these types I hit them with this: "If you're white and you've been in the US for a couple generations, why are you still working a job that can be stolen by an immigrant with a 3rd grade education and no language skills? Sounds like a you problem to me." 

Ditto. I close with, "you've lost at life".

Edited by SaucyJack
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Posted
2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

i want a 1984 style blowout, but with the Republicans on the receiving end this time

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Sure thing bud, we will get right on that.  

We are lucky that Byron Donalds is not on Trump's ticket - he acts much more like a human being than Vance, or he's a much newer model with a lot less lag.

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Red Five said:

That’s what did it?

42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Something he did finally affected her (friend)

She knows Donnie will be done in politics after this election, but Taylor has many years to come.

Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We are lucky that Byron Donalds is not on Trump's ticket - he acts much more like a human being than Vance, or he's a much newer model with a lot less lag.

But he’s not white so he’d never have gotten picked 

Posted
6 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

Good thing she doesn’t need all the white people to win. Everyone else has just gotta get to the polls 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

Also in no world would there be any internal data indicating a 1984 style win. The best Dem can hope for is 2008ish 

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Posted

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

If this was specifically to me, I don't know. I'm not in politics. I know this person socially and know that he's quite well connected.

Posted

Suffolk polling

In Northampton, Harris leads female voters 55%-37% – an 18-point advantage that is greater than Harris' 17-point statewide lead with female voters. In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%.

"This is female-gender advantage on steroids," said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump's edge among men."

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Posted
4 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I just had Covid last week and I made a "China virus" joke and it did not fare well.

Between that and the fact that I yell "mao!" (from the Deer Hunter) anytime someone suggests getting Asian food, my family has had enough.

Millennials don't really get dark humor, and Gen Z doesn't get anything, you just have to calm them, like panicked puppies.

Eg: I once told a story from my Arrrmy days, where my buzzcut and boots (wore em all the time) would draw neo-nazis out of the woodwork like I was a nazi-magnet. But then I dryly added, I couldn't be a nazi because the uniform dry cleaning fees were outrageous.

Some young bystanders demanded literal denial of nazi-hood or else they were going to punch me in the nose. I am not sure they knew how to make a fist. So I told them I wasn't, but in German.

 

 

 

 

 

OK I lied about the German bit.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also in no world would there be any internal data indicating a 1984 style win. The best Dem can hope for is 2008ish 

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

If GA and NC come through, PA can take its sweet time.

Posted
2 minutes ago, quigley said:

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

2008 is best case for Dems. Sure feels like 2020 + NC is the likely 

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Posted

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

It will depend how much mail this time around. The ratio of Dem to GOP mail requests are on par with 2020, but WAY less requests total. More people will vote in person everywhere but the states with primarily mail-in voting like CO, NV, AZ, WA, CA, etc

Fetterman was declared the winner just before 1am ET on November 9 during the midterms. So we knew that night 

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Posted
1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

In my fever dream FL goes for Harris early and it’s a stress free night.

That's my dream too. But this guy was very dismissive of it.

He says that neither Harris nor Walz will do any significant campaigning there, and he doesn't know if would benefit them or DMP if they did.

We have to hope that having abortion on the ticket is enough to prove him wrong.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2008 is best case for Dems. Sure feels like 2020 + NC is the likely 

Yeah, 2020 + North Carolina seems like the high-water mark for Kamala. The abortion referendum isn't going to get her across the wire first in Florida. 

The only way this changes is if things go completely off the rails for the GOP. With Trump at the helm, this remains a distinct possibility. 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

And js1 already took off Wednesday, so imma be on coverage all night until either Harris is seen as the winner and I go streaking down the street or 2016 redux and I chugged a bottle of wine and passed out 

You having a watch party? Can I come

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I’m telling you, both of them with Rogan or Theo or one of the other right-leaning but not explicitly Republican podcasts would have a higher potential rate of return than almost anything else they could do.

It couldn’t hurt. Even if it only changed 2% of minds. That can be a difference maker 

Edited by SubliminalHorn
Can’t type
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

What is it these undecided Republicans are mulling? 

Posted
54 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

 

30 minutes ago, quigley said:

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

Its hilarious how much money goes into this shit and no one knows shit about fuck. 

It wouldn't be that hard to modernize polling and get really good data, but the people running the campaigns and polling are fucking dinosaurs who don't know how to computer. Steve Bannon with fucking Cambridge Analytica figured out a path in 2016 where there wasn't one. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Aside from a UFC fight or NASCAR race, this is probably the friendliest environment imaginable for him.

Could've picked Ole Miss vs Mississippi State 



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