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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

If this was specifically to me, I don't know. I'm not in politics. I know this person socially and know that he's quite well connected.

Posted

Suffolk polling

In Northampton, Harris leads female voters 55%-37% – an 18-point advantage that is greater than Harris' 17-point statewide lead with female voters. In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%.

"This is female-gender advantage on steroids," said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump's edge among men."

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Posted
4 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I just had Covid last week and I made a "China virus" joke and it did not fare well.

Between that and the fact that I yell "mao!" (from the Deer Hunter) anytime someone suggests getting Asian food, my family has had enough.

Millennials don't really get dark humor, and Gen Z doesn't get anything, you just have to calm them, like panicked puppies.

Eg: I once told a story from my Arrrmy days, where my buzzcut and boots (wore em all the time) would draw neo-nazis out of the woodwork like I was a nazi-magnet. But then I dryly added, I couldn't be a nazi because the uniform dry cleaning fees were outrageous.

Some young bystanders demanded literal denial of nazi-hood or else they were going to punch me in the nose. I am not sure they knew how to make a fist. So I told them I wasn't, but in German.

 

 

 

 

 

OK I lied about the German bit.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also in no world would there be any internal data indicating a 1984 style win. The best Dem can hope for is 2008ish 

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

If GA and NC come through, PA can take its sweet time.

Posted
2 minutes ago, quigley said:

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

2008 is best case for Dems. Sure feels like 2020 + NC is the likely 

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Posted

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

It will depend how much mail this time around. The ratio of Dem to GOP mail requests are on par with 2020, but WAY less requests total. More people will vote in person everywhere but the states with primarily mail-in voting like CO, NV, AZ, WA, CA, etc

Fetterman was declared the winner just before 1am ET on November 9 during the midterms. So we knew that night 

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Posted
1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

In my fever dream FL goes for Harris early and it’s a stress free night.

That's my dream too. But this guy was very dismissive of it.

He says that neither Harris nor Walz will do any significant campaigning there, and he doesn't know if would benefit them or DMP if they did.

We have to hope that having abortion on the ticket is enough to prove him wrong.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2008 is best case for Dems. Sure feels like 2020 + NC is the likely 

Yeah, 2020 + North Carolina seems like the high-water mark for Kamala. The abortion referendum isn't going to get her across the wire first in Florida. 

The only way this changes is if things go completely off the rails for the GOP. With Trump at the helm, this remains a distinct possibility. 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

And js1 already took off Wednesday, so imma be on coverage all night until either Harris is seen as the winner and I go streaking down the street or 2016 redux and I chugged a bottle of wine and passed out 

You having a watch party? Can I come

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I’m telling you, both of them with Rogan or Theo or one of the other right-leaning but not explicitly Republican podcasts would have a higher potential rate of return than almost anything else they could do.

It couldn’t hurt. Even if it only changed 2% of minds. That can be a difference maker 

Edited by SubliminalHorn
Can’t type
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

What is it these undecided Republicans are mulling? 

Posted
54 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

 

30 minutes ago, quigley said:

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

Its hilarious how much money goes into this shit and no one knows shit about fuck. 

It wouldn't be that hard to modernize polling and get really good data, but the people running the campaigns and polling are fucking dinosaurs who don't know how to computer. Steve Bannon with fucking Cambridge Analytica figured out a path in 2016 where there wasn't one. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Aside from a UFC fight or NASCAR race, this is probably the friendliest environment imaginable for him.

Could've picked Ole Miss vs Mississippi State 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

What is it these undecided Republicans are mulling? 

Having to vote for a Democrat for the first time in their lives. The couple in the story were in their late 60s.

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Posted

I'll believe Tester is beaten when I see confirmation of it, not until then.  This guy has a career of beating the odds.  

I don't think Florida is in play, but it wouldn't surprise me if Rick Scott can be taken down.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Having to vote for a Democrat for the first time in their lives. The couple in the story were in their late 60s.

And, all their friends and family are likely hardcore Republican.

Without Trump, who is electable on a national scale? People like mtg can dominate their local scene but have no chance nationally and that is all the Republicans have for prospects.

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Posted
Arizona soundly rejected sore losers and election deniers in 20/22. The two biggest sore losers and election deniers are at the top of the ticket. Arizona. Will. Be. Blue. I don’t give a shit what polling says.

Another interesting question re: AZ is that for decades Chicago was #1 city for inmigration to Phoenix. For the last 5-6 years it’s switched to LA. What isn’t known yet is are all these people leaving LA to escape LA politics or are they bringing their LA politics with them.

Shitload of people from LA (and elsewhere in CA, but mostly LA) have moved to Phoenix.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

I know this was in regards to something else but in general when internal polling is made public, it's no more reliable than a public poll. The polling may be better, the polling may be worse, there would usually be an ulterior motive for releasing it. Treat all polls as suspect. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I know this was in regards to something else but in general when internal polling is made public, it's no more reliable than a public poll. The polling may be better, the polling may be worse, there would usually be an ulterior motive for releasing it. Treat all polls as suspect. 

Yeah, a guy giving lots of money to PACs then been given sandbag info and encouraged to then pony up more, why I never.  

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Posted

Thanks @Js1 for collecting all the polling info and dropping it here. 

Also, what's the drinking strategy for 11/5? I'm thinking nurse low abv beers all night, shots for swing states, then champagne if it's a Kamala win and pure ethanol if it's Trump.

I won't know what to do if it drags on for days. 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is what I think no polls can capture.

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

Living in Texas I totally get it. Oh, to live in a blue state. 

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Posted

The new Trump ad in PA during Monday night football is an entirely context free clip of Kamala in a 2019 dem primary town hall saying that she’d ban fracking. Then saying that 120,000 fracking jobs in PA will vanish if she’s elected. 

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Posted

Another interesting question re: AZ is that for decades Chicago was #1 city for inmigration to Phoenix. For the last 5-6 years it’s switched to LA. What isn’t known yet is are all these people leaving LA to escape LA politics or are they bringing their LA politics with them.

Shitload of people from LA (and elsewhere in CA, but mostly LA) have moved to Phoenix.

Well, there’s LA and there’s Orange County. Seems that most of the Californians who have fled for Texas are the ones with shitty politics.
Posted
3 minutes ago, heso said:

The new Trump ad in PA during Monday night football is an entirely context free clip of Kamala in a 2019 dem primary town hall saying that she’d ban fracking. Then saying that 120,000 fracking jobs in PA will vanish if she’s elected. 

Just to give an update on ads in Georgia, I'd say it's 3 or 4 to one in terms of volume in favor of Harris.  Trump ads mostly make claims like we are paying 3 times as much for gas (which is humorous, as gas today was $2.82 a gallon, which when one considers inflation, is actually significantly lower than when he was in office (easily over $3 per gallon, pre-inflation)).  His ads are blaming housing costs on Harris, along with grocery inflation.  Then we get some weird ones with no talking just showing a black family at a pool with "Trump" written (it's fucking really weird).  The Harris ads a very effective in my mind, mostly about not going back, forcing corporations and billionaires to pay their share, attacking 2025 and tariffs.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, quigley said:

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

I have a hard time believing this, because Trump (and Vance) has done nothing over the past few weeks (going back to Arlington and looking like a weak-ass clown in the debate) to make a bunch of people who voted Biden to switch from Biden (and now Harris) to Trump. If anything, Trump is even more of a butt of a lot of jokes with the eat the dogs stuff, and he's looking like a fucking moron listening to (and hanging all over) Laura Loomer (complete with the 9/11 stuff), and the GOP is being forced to defend racist bullshit (and Vance is fueling the flames with this "fried chicken" comment).

This is what I think is the deal with a lot of white guys though vvvvvvv

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

Or struggling to even show up to vote in the first place.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

Internal polling is better because they have all the data of who are they culling. 

All you need to know about internal polling is that Kamala is super confident while Trump is freaking the fuck out about tay tay and saying he hates her.

This still should not be an excuse to let up, we are the players in the game if we don't do our part we lose.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, C-Man said:


Well, there’s LA and there’s Orange County. Seems that most of the Californians who have fled for Texas are the ones with shitty politics.

absolutely.  The "exodus" from CA has made us greater.  Most of those that have left are total shitheads, and they've gone to shithead-friendly places. 

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

 

26 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Living in Texas I totally get it. Oh, to live in a blue state. 

I love being a New Yorker.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

JD is going to be responsible for Imma finally creating a "Jesus, what a fucking idiot" reaction emoji. I mean I can't believe Trump didn't get us there already, but it sure looks like JD is going to get it across the goal line. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

OK I lied about the German bit.

But that was the best part! I was just visualizing the Hollywood character-inspired image I have of you (Bill Murray in Stripes and Capt. Nixon from BoB) saying, "Nee. Ich kein Deutsch." 

 

3 hours ago, quigley said:

If this was specifically to me, I don't know. I'm not in politics. I know this person socially and know that he's quite well connected.

Tell him your internet pals think he should stop being a pussy.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

interesting breakdown / talk ….

 

That was much more annoying than interesting with his accent and general bs anybody paying attention already knew

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