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The Kids (Aren't) Alright - World Happiness Report


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51 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If you want to hide behind statistics then sure, the average American is doing great on paper. But the reality is that the average is basically in a different solar system of earning from the median wage, often 50% greater but up to 2-2.5x greater depending on the inequity that exists in that state. 


This doesn’t sound right. Link?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:


This doesn’t sound right. Link?

edit: realized these links were for 2023, so this is decent comparison if you don't mind opening two tabs. Once my newborn is down for a nap I could make a table if you'd like

http://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=ow_c&item_in=00-0000&ct=S09

http://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=bea&item_in=0035&ct=S09

 

Texas in particular is pretty bad. $45,970 median and $73,069 average. 

Edited by Captainant
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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, 52-80 said:

this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly.

i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses:

IMG_6484.thumb.jpeg.ea33b32a87da643cd971b750dfdfb6a0.jpeg

“Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?

This graph tells a story, but I'm not sure it tells the story you think. But first, help me clarify something.

Assessment of own financial self-being, well, that's just asking people what they think in regards to each of those lines? So it's basically something from fucking Survey Monkey, right?

I'm not a math guy, but I know a little something about people and how they work. When asked how people are doing, pride and ego very often insist that they say "We're doing fine" becuase people are fucking embarrassed to say they're poor, or struggling, or doing badly. Which is why you see your top line consistently over 70% "Yeah, my finances are doing ok!" meanwhile credit card debt is at record high, fewer people own homes, etc. 

Meanwhile, you have the next two lines. Which basically say the local and national economy is completely in the fucking shitty, despite all these motherfuckers apparently doing Just Fine with their own finances, all around them. And ignoring the fact that by most economic metrics, as well as the stock market, things have been going GREAT since 2020. So the returns are good, their finances are ok, and yet everything sucks, eh?

TL;DNR: Posting a Self Assessment of how peopel "feel" isn't really any kind of supporting fact or data, I don't care if it came from the Federal Reserve, it might as well be a "Is he really into me?" quiz from the pages of a fucking Cosmo magazine. The wide disparity between the first line and the last two lines is clear evidence something is amiss in the survey. My guess? Humans are the flaw. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

The entire 'capitalization' of the cryptosphere is smaller than 1 company in the SPX.  It is a mere byproduct of financial surplus.

If you want to say that the SPX itself is overvalued, in big part due to excessive liquidity, thanks to the Fed's directionally-bad overaccomodation of the Govt's appetite for debt spending.... hey, nice to see you in the party; keg's in the back.

If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. 

If you want to say crypto is this malignant thing that should be eradicated because its so morally wrong what people do with their disposable money -- which I dont think you are saying -- leave it to the authoritarian church ladies to preach that apocalyptism.  Few as they are, theres enough of their hysteria for one board.

Crypto is 2.5T SPX as a whole is 44T and without the top 7 it's more like 36T. It's not a rounding error. It's smaller than some of the largest companies on earth, but it's bigger than 100 of the 500 biggest companies on earth in aggregate as well. 

We are on the same page on point 2 

I'm saying the opposite. I'm saying people aren't poor and they know that the economy is still a sham because the work they are doing isn't actually productive or valuable. People aren't quitting their jobs because they aren't gonna risk not having an income (except people like me who want to actually innovate) 

Everyone knows the whole economy is this debt inflated scam market built on quantitative easing and low interest rates that's all going to come crumbling down in the inevitable cash crunch or hyperinflation that is looming. 

Everyone knows what we are doing is not sustainable. We either need to become disciplined and shrink the economy intentionally to gracefully deleverage and start a new debt cycle or we need to turn the money machine back on and cause hyperinflation. We can't keep doing what we are doing today for more than another 6 months maybe 12 months tops. 

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Thatguy,
that’s awesome for your daughter.  And surely your must realize how unique she is to be able to attend a quality institution and be able to play high level athletics.  
 
but 95% of sports parents don’t accept that the same opportunity won’t be there for their child.  
 
Every athlete will be told sometime between 18-38 that their time in organized, competitive play is over.  But knowledge and education and the arts last forever.  Seems like you get that you’d be shocked how few other parents do. 

Quite frankly, I think I can identify kids who will do well in sports already. Those kids who practice and ask for more and are focused throughout the game. Not necessarily emotional, but those who have an innate desire to get better.
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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Assessment of own financial self-being, well, that's just asking people what they think in regards to each of those lines? So it's basically something from fucking Survey Monkey, right?

I'm not a math guy, but I know a little something about people and how they work. When asked how people are doing, pride and ego very often insist that they say "We're doing fine" becuase people are fucking embarrassed to say they're poor, or struggling, or doing badly. Which is why you see your top line consistently over 70% "Yeah, my finances are doing ok!" meanwhile credit card debt is at record high, fewer people own homes, etc. 

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

IMG_6489.thumb.jpeg.7331faa5358cc1a84c08ddb3a8e309c0.jpeg

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

IMG_6490.jpeg

IMG_6491.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, Nivek said:


Quite frankly, I think I can identify kids who will do well in sports already. Those kids who practice and ask for more and are focused throughout the game. Not necessarily emotional, but those who have an innate desire to get better.

Timmy, do you like to hang around the gymnasium?  /CaptOveur

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33 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

IMG_6489.thumb.jpeg.7331faa5358cc1a84c08ddb3a8e309c0.jpeg

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

IMG_6490.jpeg

IMG_6491.jpeg

Does your homeownership chart take into account coprorate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Becuase if it's just saying that 66% ownerhip of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Your fed chart about emergency says "Cash or Equivalent." Which means people can cover it with a credit card. Which in general indicates they don't have the fluid cash to cover an emergency, IMO. I read where the links came from. It didn't seem as rosy as that one chart paints it, but I guess that's my interpretation of 25% of people skipping medical visits/treatment becuase they can't afford it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2021-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm

I want to respond to this specifically:
 

Quote

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Yes. The very nature of your original chart where "everyone is doing fine finacially" while thinking the US economy is completely FUBARD'D at the local and national level pretty much proves they're lying about something, whether they know it or not. 

And here's another study that turns those numbers on it's head, saying it's 67% that can't cover that $400 expense:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/percentage-americans-unable-cover-400-133058811.html

 

Quote

According to the Fed’s 2022 Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households survey released last Monday, 37% of Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense, up 5% from 32% in 2021 and back to 2019 levels.

So, nearly one in four consumers would have to use credit, turn to family, sell assets or get a loan in order to cover any major unexpected cost. When asked about non-emergency expenses, 18% of Americans said the largest expense they could cover using only their savings was under $100.

The report includes data gathered from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which has been conducted since 2013 and includes answers from over 11,000 adult respondents. The SHED collects data on how people feel about their family’s finances to help understand the effects of broader economic trends over time.

Both the Fed report and a recent survey by SecureSave, the financial technology platform co-created by Suze Orman to help individuals build employee benefit emergency savings, have inflation as the biggest factor affecting Americans’ finances, but the SecureSave study highlights a drastic decline in personal savings when compared to the Fed survey.

The SecureSave study found a shocking 67% of Americans don’t have enough money saved to cover that same hypothetical unexpected $400 expense. Like the Fed study, a good number of SecureSave survey respondents (54%) found their savings have decreased in 2022.

“This data is a huge red flag for our country’s economy: the overwhelming majority of American households are dangerously unprepared,” said Orman in a press release.

According to the Federal Reserve study, for those not able to cover a $400 emergency expense, 16% said they would use credit cards to pay off the expense over time and 9% stated they would borrow the funds from a friend or family member.

Other answers included selling something (6%), getting a bank loan or line of credit (2%) and taking out a payday loan, deposit advance or overdraft (2%). 13% claimed they would simply not be able to pay off the emergency expense at all.

 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does your homeownership chart take into account corporate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Because if it's just saying that 66% ownership of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Thank you, was about to question that/point that out.  Also I corrected your spelling errors, cretin!

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

IMG_6489.thumb.jpeg.7331faa5358cc1a84c08ddb3a8e309c0.jpeg

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

IMG_6490.jpeg

IMG_6491.jpeg

What's the source of these graphs?  I have a few questions.

For example, are the credit numbers adjusted for population?  And is Fig. 21 adjusted for inflation?

Edit, should have read @SydneyCarton's post first.

Edited by DixonHur
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50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does your homeownership chart take into account coprorate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Becuase if it's just saying that 66% ownerhip of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Your fed chart about emergency says "Cash or Equivalent." Which means people can cover it with a credit card. Which in general indicates they don't have the fluid cash to cover an emergency, IMO. I read where the links came from. It didn't seem as rosy as that one chart paints it, but I guess that's my interpretation of 25% of people skipping medical visits/treatment becuase they can't afford it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2021-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm

I want to respond to this specifically:
 

Yes. The very nature of your original chart where "everyone is doing fine finacially" while thinking the US economy is completely FUBARD'D at the local and national level pretty much proves they're lying about something, whether they know it or not. 

And here's another study that turns those numbers on it's head, saying it's 67% that can't cover that $400 expense:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/percentage-americans-unable-cover-400-133058811.html

 

 

Census’ home ownership is defined as owner-occupied. Otherwise, every house is owned by someone (private or corporate landlord) and the measure becomes meaningless. No heavy math required. 
see: Tenure

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2021/2021 AHS Definitions.pdf
 

Whatever number of people admitting to skipping medical services could be construed as “bad”. Even 5%. The important thing is to put it in context. The current answer is lower than when the survey first started — post Obamacare, btw

IMG_6492.thumb.jpeg.e23d7ee53aad9a772feb336048f15d3b.jpeg
 

The speculation about the statistic masking people using credit card to cover lack of true liquidity: (1) survey specifically conditions on “credit card **paid off** at the next statement and (2) importantly, the criteria were identical in the previous years when they asked the same question.

The occams razor answer as to why there is a divergence between peoples response about their own finances vs external finances as a whole….is they know reasonably/relatively well about their money, and they simply they dont know shit about the economy.  

Thats not even meant to be disparaging. Its well evidenced here and pretty much undisputable. People dont key into anything besides headline prices (mostly of gasoline), and headline news print. More than that, their assessment of economic conditions are primarily a reflection of whether their party is in government. (A hilarious effect replicated in every country/jurisdiction in the world). 
 

**
 

If we simply lean on anecdotes to start this convo, ill end it with one. My own dear wife with a graduate degree in science and whose earnings grew 50% over last few years…if i asked her if the unemployment rate or stock market was up or down YTD she’d have no idea. If I asked her whether the central bank’s policy rates have been rising or dropping she’d look at me like I’m pranking her. If I asked her whether the economy is better or worse, she’d probably say worse….because milk costs more. 

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1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

For example, are the credit numbers adjusted for population?  And is Fig. 21 adjusted for inflation?

All the credit number are rates, so already normalized for population. 
 

Fig 21 (hypothetical coverage of emergency spending) is nominal. $400 was ~$550 in 2013….but the current survey found that the response was insensitive to the a $500 question anyway. 

Since 2013, when this question was first asked, median household incomes increased as did consumer prices.To check how changes in price levels affect responses to this question, the 2022 survey asked one-fifth of respondents how they would handle a $500 expense instead. Changing the threshold only altered the share who would pay in cash by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting that shifts in the price level have not materially affected the trend in this series.

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6 hours ago, immamac said:

Crypto is 2.5T SPX as a whole is 44T and without the top 7 it's more like 36T. It's not a rounding error. It's smaller than some of the largest companies on earth, but it's bigger than 100 of the 500 biggest companies on earth in aggregate as well. 

Theres some ‘real money’ underpinning the cryptosphere so its not all hot air. FTX bankruptcy administrators recently found enough assets to make all their creditors whole.

Turns out, 70% of the value of the claimants were held in USD/equivalents, so account holders will get back what they were owed AND interest in top (some $1.18:1 in net). The remaining 30% tied to crypto will be paid according to value at time of bankruptcy. So if held in BTC…they would recover in cash what they *had* — but which is a mere 1/3rd of todays market value. 

Pretty amusing end to the story. 

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On 5/21/2024 at 2:15 PM, BeardIP said:

A few years ago I had the honor (lol) of having to spend weeks in Omaha for a project. Well I just so happened to be staying in the same hotel as some of the Big 12 teams in the NCAA volleyball final four or whatever their tournament is. It was whatever year the SDSU jackrabbits made it because I remember their huge bus being obnoxious (I guess other teams flew). 

Anyways, I was taking an elevator to breakfast one morning and in walks the Nebraska volley ball girls and I immediately knew my niece would never be a D1 volleyball player, despite her earnest desire. Each of these girls dwarfed me, and I’m 6’1. Their quads were as wide as my waists and their wingspans were impressive for any man. I’m talking 6’6 women. This was Nebraska but I’d see the same from Michigan, Baylor, and Tennessee. My assumption from that experience was the blue blood schools are getting the best breeds and stock of girls, and if you aren’t 6 foot+, it might be hard to get a look unless you are like the lone position where it’s okay to be a shortie.

I say all that to say and to your point, unless your girl is going to be tall (and you can generally tell by teens) then you might start focusing your investments (time, mental, physical and monetary) elsewhere. Much like a kid who loves basketball but at 16 is still 5’9.

Certain schools have a certain philosophy in recruiting. Nebraska and the rest of the Big 10 like the biggest girls they can get. Texas likes them to be athletic over tall, though they are pretty tall, just not Big 10 tall. The usual suspects get the pick of the litter, then the rest of the P5 schools go next, and the small conferences go last. Some of the small schools get good players because of the region they are in. Texas is number 1 in prep vball, Cali and Florida are next. So if you are an undersized kid you steer clear of those areas. However, you look at the Northeast and other areas and there are tons of D1 kids under 6ft. You just have to ignore those big schools and leave the great state of Texas and scholarships are waiting.

Us olds think of things the wrong way. We wanted a college experience so we went here blah blah blah. It's 2024. I explained it my daughter like this when her coach got a letter from the coaches at Wake Forest asking about her. I said being a collegiate athlete is extremely difficult. That said, Wake is 65k a year. Where are you going to get a job making 65k while in college?

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Teen Rapper Shoots Himself During Livestream

Raleigh Freeman III, a 17-year-old rapper from Suffolk, Virginia, known by his stage name Rylo Huncho, tragically died from an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound while filming a music video on May 16, 2024. The incident left his family, friends, and the community in a state of shock.

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The fatal accident occurred while Freeman was filming content for his social media platforms. A video posted on his Instagram story showed him handling a handgun with a green laser sight and flashlight. The situation turned fatal when Freeman aimed the weapon at his own head, disengaged the safety, and pulled the trigger while uttering, “F*** y’all n****s.” The gun fired, leading to his instant death.

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