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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

when did the monitoring stations up river see the numbers jump and was a notice sent out based on those actual numbers ?

that's the hard warming / real time flooding alerts that need to be relayed asap 

This is something I'm curious about.  Where did the flood surge start?  Camp Mystic is well west/southwest of Hunt, Ingram and Kerrville.  I've seen a lot of comments about a local Kerrville official out for a run ~ 3:30 AM and nothing was happening, but I think Mystic had already been hit by then.  How much warning time was possible by monitors triggering west of Mystic?  ARE there any monitors out there?

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Posted
1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Briscoe needs to crawl back under the bridge he collects tolls at.

They say those tolls are bitter and a bit salty, but full of protein

Posted
5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Yeah, I keep seeing it pop up in reports and I'm like, wait, what?

 

Camp website is overrun, but the Google preview says "Camp Mystic is a private Christian summer camp for girls. Established in 1926, Mystic is nestled ..." so I assume they're getting this directly from the camp's website.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

This is something I'm curious about.  Where did the flood surge start?  Camp Mystic is well west/southwest of Hunt, Ingram and Kerrville.  I've seen a lot of comments about a local Kerrville official out for a run ~ 3:30 AM and nothing was happening, but I think Mystic had already been hit by then.  How much warning time was possible by monitors triggering west of Mystic?  ARE there any monitors out there?

 

texas rivers and lakes are heavily monitored 

Posted
10 hours ago, royiv said:

Your wife is the type of clergy that I would love to have dinner with over multiple bottles of wine discussing how we got to this place. I bailed, but I commend her for keeping the faith in a world where Christianity has become hijacked by political terrorists.

Intelligent, educated clergy are amazing companions and friends.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

when did the monitoring stations up river see the numbers jump and was a notice sent out based on those actual numbers ?

that's the hard warming / real time flooding alerts that need to be relayed asap 

kerr county doesn't need a billion dollars to solve this problem forever

gauge stations every mile that send readings to a central station, and when there is any sudden increase in flow it trips the storm sirens

wait... sorry... they don't have any of that infrastructure that would cost less than a million dollars to build and 100k a year to maintain

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Posted
Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

kerr county doesn't need a billion dollars to solve this problem forever

gauge stations every mile that send readings to a central station, and when there is any sudden increase in flow it trips the storm sirens

wait... sorry... they don't have any of that infrastructure that would cost less than a million dollars to build and 100k a year to maintain

sorry but the real emergency is the "invasion" of brown people, we need every available resource to support the gestapo

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Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Once again, if Sandy Hook didn’t move the needle with those people then nothing will.  They will do anything to protect the cult leader and any empathy they pretended to have has been long gone in the name of ‘the cause’.  

They believe that they are in war to save America for God and White People that we started. If you lose battles or have a few shitty generals, you don't abandon your side no matter how void of any rightness it may be. It's why they're winning.

Posted
21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

They say those tolls are bitter and a bit salty, but full of protein

RIP ygifs/Lobo. 
 

He would have loved this joke ❤️

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

kerr county doesn't need a billion dollars to solve this problem forever

gauge stations every mile that send readings to a central station, and when there is any sudden increase in flow it trips the storm sirens

wait... sorry... they don't have any of that infrastructure that would cost less than a million dollars to build and 100k a year to maintain

 

the stations are already there, with historical data to back it all up

set up sirens tied to a network, using solar and batteries. 

*does abbott and patrick have the balls to use solar and batteries defying their orange god ?

Posted
53 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I'm hung up on the fact that a very small group of adults / maybe one adult, took no action at camp mystic on friday night and is responsible for all those deaths 

 

Well, I'm sure they would make different choices in hindsight.  I think it is worth noting that the owner of Mystic died trying to save campers, as did Jane Ragsdale owner at Heart O' the Hills. 

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Posted

I did a little sleuthing:  Camp Mystic is approximately 17 miles NE of the South Fork headwaters.  That's by road, though.  I don't know how much different the river distance is.  At any rate, that's not real far.  I imagine the flood surge arrived pretty quickly after forming, and was an accumulated volume of water cover who knows what length of the river.

But yes, there should be an automated warning system.  A few minutes could have made all the difference.  It would make even more difference for the camps and other sites further downstream that got clobbered.

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Posted
38 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

when did the monitoring stations up river see the numbers jump and was a notice sent out based on those actual numbers ?

that's the hard warming / real time flooding alerts that need to be relayed asap 

Yea. I didn't know about those, but I was wondering about what real time info authorities get on rising water. Relying on flash flood watches or warnings that go out whenever there's a storm is kind of like relying on the boy who cries wolf. Flash floods for most of us are impassable roads not unstoppable torrents hundreds of feet wide killing everything in its path.

If an event like this could have been predicted at all, why not air raid sirens?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Yea. I didn't know about those, but I was wondering about what real time info authorities get on rising water. Relying on flash flood watches or warnings that go out whenever there's a storm is kind of like relying on the boy who cries wolf. Flash floods for most of us are impassable roads not unstoppable torrents hundreds of feet wide killing everything in its path.

If an event like this could have been predicted at all, why not air raid sirens?

 

it's updated every minutes on the website 

Posted
7 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

 

If an event like this could have been predicted at all, why not air raid sirens?

Because those cost money.  DOGE out front should have told you.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

This is something I'm curious about.  Where did the flood surge start?  Camp Mystic is well west/southwest of Hunt, Ingram and Kerrville.  I've seen a lot of comments about a local Kerrville official out for a run ~ 3:30 AM and nothing was happening, but I think Mystic had already been hit by then.  How much warning time was possible by monitors triggering west of Mystic?  ARE there any monitors out there?

this cap of the topo is pretty much the entire drainage watershed of the south fork above mystic (marker B)

image.thumb.png.4ba210f76a33ae3d85e2aa973305ba0e.png

marker A is 6.5 miles southwest of mystic

it's dry as a bone for years at a time, but it clearly has a geologic history of being subject to the same event that happened thursday night:

image.thumb.png.e254bd4027020927cd0d5d322f644c4d.png

the road at the top is 39

the area between the "river bed" and 39 is the floodplain from erosion events like thursday night

here is the streetview of the house on the right: https://maps.app.goo.gl/741GBi5MGCgvn9z18

image.thumb.png.1278535e31bab983bbbb8e25237a0016.png

 

the dry riverbed, erosion escarpment from water accelerating through the curve in the path (see: the bernoulli equation), and obvious floodplain clearly indicate this same event has transpired for thousands of years and i have no doubt that this exact same flood has happened at least twice since the settlement of kerr county in the 1840s, but the institutional memory expired before all of the camps were built post-war

the drainage watershed of the guadalupe south fork is relatively small but it obviously can become very powerful

i'm going to stop there because this line of inquiry is heading towards an indictment of good people in a time of tragedy

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Posted
44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

texas rivers and lakes are heavily monitored 

not this rural river branch in an unpopulated watershed with nothing but ranches and maybe 500 people living in it

maybe

Posted

Just so everyone's expectations are clear, this is the way it'll always play out

  • Day of:
    • wall to wall media coverage
    • non-stop social media anecdotes and commentary from public figures
    • all politicians extending thoughts, prayers, and offers of assistance
  • Day after
    • politicians on the scene, photo ops, press conferences making all kinds of promises
    • wall to wall media coverage
    • hundreds of different charities and GoFundMes up and running, donations pouring in
  • Week after
    • media coverage mixed with newer unrelated stories, in-depth stories from first responders and victims
    • social media attention drops off
    • charities still seeing support
    • politicians continue with thoughts and prayers, but all commitments if any are made are vague and noncommittal
  • Month after
    • no more mainstream media, any media attention will come from partisan sources making a story of the government failing to honor its promises to help the affected people and communities
    • social media will consist of people sharing the partisan stories
    • donations will have slowed to a trickle
    • politicians will stop talking about it, and when asked about it will have a canned response that in no way, shape, or form, helps anyone
  • Thereafter
    • no media at all
    • basically no charity at all
    • politicians will neither lift a finger nor spend a dime on rebuilding or helping any of the victims
    • victims will try to speak out about how the safety net wasn't there when they needed it, and their stories will be ignored
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Posted
58 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'm 53 and I've never heard Camp Mystic described as a "Christian" camp until this weekend.

When did that happen?

 

it pretty clearly is in its mission and its right there on their website

Posted
 
the stations are already there, with historical data to back it all up
set up sirens tied to a network, using solar and batteries. 
*does abbott and patrick have the balls to use solar and batteries defying their orange god ?
Hahahaha...that's a good one.

Now, if Abbott comes out & says this network will somehow be powered by coal trucked in from West Virginia....
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Posted
32 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

the stations are already there, with historical data to back it all up

my interpretation of this data is that there is zero anything on the south fork of the guad:

image.thumb.png.e23ec9df9016c592e361ed3ccf751d8e.png

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

my interpretation of this data is that there is zero anything on the south fork of the guad:

image.thumb.png.e23ec9df9016c592e361ed3ccf751d8e.png

 

you need it after the merge. once you know the peak there, it can be timed all the way to canyon lake 

Posted

the black/yellow polygon is the watershed that killed the kids and anyone at mystic - it's incredibly small, but as i highlighted above - it's not an unforseen never-happened-before event and having just read mystic dates to 1926 i have no doubt that institutional memory of this same kind of event was alive before ww2 but probably considered it to be a "1000-year" event; it would only be recorded in the archives of the kerrville newspaper(s) if at all

image.thumb.png.54f1a5ffccdb79388e1fb52fb5e6c408.png

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Posted
Wow I stumbled upon a sentient aggy. 
Oh, wait
image.png.35920a228ab30a18cfb4fb3522447b31.png

Former IAH-based Continental pilot. Never knew he was sane. That base is shockingly maga although mostly filled with out of state carpet baggers.
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Posted
53 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Camp website is overrun, but the Google preview says "Camp Mystic is a private Christian summer camp for girls. Established in 1926, Mystic is nestled ..." so I assume they're getting this directly from the camp's website.

I always wonder about the “Christian” description on just about everything.

For something like summer camp it might just be that little extra seal of approval that parents need in their own minds to give them assurances that the counselors aren’t drinking, drugging and fucking all over the place or a further reassurance that the Catholics and Jews are not running amok.

I went to a Christian camp in the hill country back in the late 70s, and the only Christian thing we did was as say grace before meals…well that and treat everyone with respect and such, except that “squid” kid, who got hazed unmercifully to the point where I think there is a chance he could have grown up to be a first rate serial killer.

My point is that even if true, it might not really mean anything and that if you run accreditation as a guy named squid who is in his late 50’s, steer clear.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Chopper said:
Quote

Ag’s curriculum, geared to daughters of the River Oaks, Highland Park, and ranching aristocracies, included everything from riflery to “correctives” (posture).

Quote

One day this spring I met Denise Cartwright, one of Mystic’s Houston representatives, at a Starbucks. Denise is 53, with large blue eyes, a sharp, stylish pageboy, and the same dry, assessing humor I’d noticed in other former Mystic campers. Denise had bet me that we’d be unable to sit at the coffee shop for long without encountering other alumnae. She had hedged her bet a little, having picked a Starbucks near Tanglewood and River Oaks—prime Mystic stomping grounds—and making herself a target by wearing her many Mystic charms on a necklace and displaying a pillowcase her mother once emblazoned with her camp patches.

The bolded part is the reason why it won't be like Uvalde

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Posted
13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

you need it after the merge. once you know the peak there, it can be timed all the way to canyon lake 

depending on where a stationary/meandering/rotating rain event is parked, you could have the same data downstream of the merge, and the north fork bone dry, or the south fork bone dry; every river that drains over the balcones has multiple tributaries that are potential deathtraps and every one of them needs gauging stations in locations like the one i posed above where it's clear a wall of water has come through an area every so often for thousands of years, but that would not be logical to dipshits using this tragedy as a reason to reduce government 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

I always wonder about the “Christian” description on just about everything.

 

You could just read what was posted a few posts before yours with links to their archived website. Or you could just surmise based on your experience at some random camp 50 years ago. Which is best? Who knows?

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

Camp website is overrun, but the Google preview says "Camp Mystic is a private Christian summer camp for girls. Established in 1926, Mystic is nestled ..." so I assume they're getting this directly from the camp's website.

my niece was a Rocky River Ranch camper (distinctly non-religious) so i'd never actually heard of Camp Mystic or any of the others in that stretch bc we're a bunch of heathens lol...but yeah, i visited the website yesterday and the 'about' section included a description as a 'Christian based camp' or similar wording. 

Edited by mchookem
Posted
33 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

it pretty clearly is in its mission and its right there on their website

 I just never remember hearing it described as such growing up, that's all. But we're talking 40 years ago.

Posted
I always wonder about the “Christian” description on just about everything.
For something like summer camp it might just be that little extra seal of approval that parents need in their own minds to give them assurances that the counselors aren’t drinking, drugging and fucking all over the place or a further reassurance that the Catholics and Jews are not running amok.
I went to a Christian camp in the hill country back in the late 70s, and the only Christian thing we did was as say grace before meals…well that and treat everyone with respect and such, except that “squid” kid, who got hazed unmercifully to the point where I think there is a chance he could have grown up to be a first rate serial killer.
My point is that even if true, it might not really mean anything and that if you run accreditation as a guy named squid who is in his late 50’s, steer clear.

All of the private camps have some sort of loose “Christian” hook. Longhorn makes all the kids go up to a mountain bluff every Sunday for some kind of service. My kids went to Ozark in Arkansas for a number of years. It’s a “Christian” camp too.

I’m sure the religious angle helps with marketing and maybe even for tax exemptions, etc. But I’m a cynical bastard these days.
Posted (edited)

The NY Times has an article out discussing DOGE cuts that directly affected the weather forecasting for the area, sorry if this is behind a paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/us/politics/texas-floods-warnings-vacancies.html?smid=url-share

Here's a snippet from the article tying Trump's DOGE "early retirement" effort to the removal of the "warning coordination" meterologist in San Antonio, the office responsible for the area around the camp:

The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure.

Later in the article:

Under the Trump administration, the Weather Service, like other federal agencies, has been pushed to reduce its number of employees. By this spring, through layoffs and retirements, the Weather Service had lost nearly 600 people from a work force that until recently was as large as 4,000.

The flooding was certainly an extreme event.  A fully staffed office probably would not have prevented tragedy.  But maybe it would have.  Maybe a "warning coordination meteorologist" would have helped local officials realize they needed a checklist or system in place to help these RV parks or camps in harms way, as summer approached.  Maybe not.  But firing the person and firing staff systemwide helped ensure warnings did not reach those in need.

Little cracks in our systems are now in place all over America, thanks to Trump and Elon and DOGE, who are making America great again.

Edited by Texas Jeff
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Posted
2 minutes ago, C-Man said:


All of the private camps have some sort of loose “Christian” hook. Longhorn makes all the kids go up to a mountain bluff every Sunday for some kind of service. My kids went to Ozark in Arkansas for a number of years. It’s a “Christian” camp too.

I’m sure the religious angle helps with marketing and maybe even for tax exemptions, etc. But I’m a cynical bastard these days.

You're right about that, but in this particular case according to the Texas Monthly article these directors made sure the Bible stuff was a bit more pronounced

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Posted
3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Someone should ask Abbott why he’s been sitting down for 40 years if prayers work. 

Honestly, the prayers thing is a bullshit distraction the R party uses every time there's a tragedy.  Do they help some folks cope?  Of course they do.  But that's absolutely NOT why the asshole R party keeps parroting their prayer points when there's shootings etc. 

They should wheel Abbott's ass into the raging rapids but not before taking a moment to pray.  Fucking assholes. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

 I just never remember hearing it described as such growing up, that's all. But we're talking 40 years ago.

I went to summer camp one year at Camp Peniel and it was definitely Christian-rooted, seems like expensive camps like Mystic are always Christian as well. I never grew up going to church and evolved into an atheist. That camp experience was fun as a kid but I still remember how awkward the religious part felt to me and how out of place I felt when the prayer shit and saying grace at meal time came up. 

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, C-Man said:

All of the private camps have some sort of loose “Christian” hook. Longhorn makes all the kids go up to a mountain bluff every Sunday for some kind of service. My kids went to Ozark in Arkansas for a number of years. It’s a “Christian” camp too.

I’m sure the religious angle helps with marketing and maybe even for tax exemptions, etc. But I’m a cynical bastard these days.

Yeah, we went to Church Mountain every Sunday, but I would not describe Camp Longhorn as a "Christian" camp. The only time religion came up was on Sunday and only at Church Mountain. I can't remember if Jewish campers participated.

 

Edited by David Dennison
Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

You're right about that, but in this particular case according to the Texas Monthly article these directors made sure the Bible stuff was a bit more pronounced

also any cursory glance at their IG page screams religion to this non-believer

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Posted

What in gods name are chop Roy and briscoe Cain even talking about with ‘big gov taking advantage as a result of this’… wtf does that even mean 

Posted
4 minutes ago, bluto said:

What in gods name are chop Roy and briscoe Cain even talking about with ‘big gov taking advantage as a result of this’… wtf does that even mean 

It means "hold the line" because to their base nothing not even their own children matters more than MAGA loyalty.

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