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Posted

The committee's job is to pick the best team of 136 teams, rank it, then pick the best team of the remaining 135 teams, rank it #2, then pick the best team of the remaining 134 teams, rank it #3, and so on and so forth until 25 teams are ranked. The FSU precedent tells us that by "best" they mean "most likely to win in the playoffs" and not just "team that has the most impressive record" (even though the two are highly correlated).

So let's run this thought experiment.

It's hard to argue that Ohio State is not the "best" team. Undefeated in a good conference, and beat good out-of-conference opponents. Has barely trailed all season.

Spoiler

1. Ohio State

Of the remaining 135 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Also in a good conference. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here, because if you're asking me whether there's a better team in that 135, I would say yes, and that team is Georgia. My reasoning is simple: in the absence of some really peculiar advantage in terms of matchups or injuries, virtually any playoff team would feel better about its chances against Indiana than it would against Georgia. Maybe that's SEC bias, but I don't think I'm out of line saying that Georgia would be undefeated with Indiana's schedule, while Indiana probably would have dropped a game (or more).

Spoiler

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

Of the remaining 134 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Who is best among Indiana, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon? This is a hard question to answer. In terms of talent, I believe it's Texas A&M, but Indiana has a better QB and a better win (Oregon) than Texas A&M (ND). So I would call 3-4 a tie. If Ohio State beats Indiana in the CCG that should be enough to dock them down to #4 (even though I don't believe it changes the answer to the real question, which is whether opponents are more scared to face Texas A&M than Indiana)

Spoiler

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

Of the remaining 132 teams, you have Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. Of these teams, the team with the most defensible claims to being "best" are the one loss teams from strong conferences: Ole Miss and Oregon. If I think Georgia is better than Indiana then I should also think losing to Georgia is less bad than losing to Indiana, but on the other hand I can see about half the field of teams preferring to face Ole Miss in a playoff game. More talent, more money, the whole thing. So, I'm going to say Oregon is the "best" team of those 132 and Ole Miss is the "best" team remaining after that

Spoiler

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

5. Oregon

6. Ole Miss

Of the remaining 130 teams, you have Texas Tech and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. I'll be blunt. I think most of the field would rather face one of BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, and USC (the "we like our chances" camp). So I'm going to set them aside for now. A good argument could be made that, of those 130 options, Texas is the team that puts the most fear into everyone else if the game is played in December or January. By the same logic, very good arguments could also be made about Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame, all of which are teams that can boast recent postseason success (an ability to "peak at the right time") on top of elite talent (the "Fuck" camp). Everyone else (Oklahoma, Vandy, and Michigan) are closer to that "we like our chances" camp.

So, who is "best" among Texas, Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame? My gut tells me Notre Dame is not the best of those four, but maybe isn't the worst, but then again lost to Miami (but would it lose in December/January)? The same can be asked about Alabama, which is why a loss in December would cut against the idea that it is "best" of the four, even if that loss is to a great team in a conference championship game.

By "best," I mean "strikes the most fear in playoff opponents"

Posted
48 minutes ago, GTJ1982 said:

I don’t get why Alabama is automatically in even if they lose when they are barely at 10 now in the rankings.  If they are going to claim a conference championship loss doesn’t matter are they going to put in both big 12 teams?  Why not announce the final 12 this Tuesday and the Conference championships would just determine seeding. 
 

I believe Alabama is in even with a loss this week simply because “we can’t leave out Bama two years in row” will be the logic of the committee.  
 

I want to see what happens if Duke and BYU win Saturday though.  

But if Bama loses to  UGA by a similar score which we lost to UGA by, how does the committee justify Bama staying?    Plus Auburn had them on the ropes late until the SEC Refs stepped in and screwed Auburn once again in order to save a golden calf in Bama.   

Posted
Just now, DFW Horn said:

This

If TV wants a 9-3 Texas in the playoff field bad enough for the ratings, they'll find a way to make it happen. I hope that information was included in the media packets CDC supposedly sent out.

If the Mouse (Disney) and Sankey want Texas in, Texas will be in

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Posted
5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Klatt has them as a bubble team and says they dont look like a playoff team this last month and that they should be out but will ultimately be in because of their SOS. 

And they beat Michigan who sort of sucks but that was a manly scheduling up game for them. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Noozak said:

If the committee gets pressured to put Texas in to keep the out-of-conference games, what are the odds they make Ole Miss the fall guy to give Texas a spot? 

The only potential fall guy is Bama IMO since they would have 3 losses and the all important, new for this year! "bad loss".  it would be fucking hilarious if it happened 2 years in a row to them, which is also why I don't see it happening.

1% chance Tech(with a loss to BYU), ND, OU could be a fall guy.  problem is all of those are viewed as safely in due to their current ranking.

Posted
5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

He said the only other team doing that right now is ND. So ND must be feeling uneasy right now. 

It's never made sense where the committee has had them ranked.  They did it to create a H2H buffer against Miami hoping it would all work itself out and it hasn't.   I don't know how the committee can walk it back now but ND should feel uneasy as their resume doesn't stack up.

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Posted
59 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Fyi, these are the only schools we have losing records against that arent in the SEC:

 

Air force 0-1

Byu 2-4

Minnesota 0-1

Ncst 0-1

Northwestern 0-1

Notre dame 3-9

Usc 2-5

Syracuse 0-2

Ucla 3-4

Va tech 0-1

Penn state 2-3

Also:

Randolph Field 

Kirksville 

Colorado College

Harvard

Chicago (but we stole their big radioactive drum)

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Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The problem is that it has to come at the expense of 3 loss Bama or ND. Both of those teams are gonna be hard to politic out.

In that case Bama should be left out since they lost to a horrible FSU team that got dominated by a bad Florida team. Also Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and Alabama lost at home to Oklahoma

Posted
1 minute ago, JohnnyTapia said:

In that case Bama should be left out since they lost to a horrible FSU team that got dominated by a bad Florida team. Also Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and Alabama lost at home to Oklahoma

[Playing Devil's advocate] But Bama beat UGA on the road and Texas didnt. And they also will have 1 more win than we do. And Texas went to OT with two teams and Bama didnt.

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Posted
1 minute ago, JohnnyTapia said:

In that case Bama should be left out since they lost to a horrible FSU team that got dominated by a bad Florida team. Also Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and Alabama lost at home to Oklahoma

IMO, the only way Bama gets left out is if UGA beats them by 3+ scores. Leaving out ND may be harder for the committee to swallow, but maybe the media followers can tell us how much better our TV ratings are than theirs. We know our team is better.

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Posted (edited)

What's funny in all of this is that BYU actually has a strong SOR (#6) and a better SOS than ND, OSU, Indiana and Ole Miss.  I wouldn't have thought that but they drew a bunch of the good not great Big 12 teams.  If they get beat by Tech in a close game this week, BYU probably still has a better resume than ND and yet ND is already slotted above them.  So they do in fact ignore the loss column for  Big 12 teams LOL.   I wonder if Tech could end up getting bumped if they lose because their SOS is by far the worst of anyone in the conversation.

Edited by Skipper
Posted
5 minutes ago, JohnnyTapia said:

In that case Bama should be left out since they lost to a horrible FSU team that got dominated by a bad Florida team. Also Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and Alabama lost at home to Oklahoma

The unfortunate counter argument here is that they beat Georgia & we didn’t.

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Posted
1 minute ago, JohnnyTapia said:

In that case Bama should be left out since they lost to a horrible FSU team that got dominated by a bad Florida team. Also Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and Alabama lost at home to Oklahoma

Playing devils advocate, Bama beat UGA at Sanford. Thats a massive win. Meanwhile, we didnt play well in a single away game and got embarrassed at Sanford. All of our CFP games would be away games. Not great for us. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

[Playing Devil's advocate] But Bama beat UGA on the road and Texas didnt. And they also will have 1 more win than we do. And Texas went to OT with two teams and Bama didnt.


In college football most are still programmed to simply sort on wins and losses. In no other sport are teams even referred to as “1 loss and 3 loss” teams. Part of that is the limited number of games and part of that is just habit. That is not going to change and Texas will not be in the playoffs. The nuance required to evaluate Texas and our schedule is simply not there. It’s on us if we choose to take that fact and do something else. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

[Playing Devil's advocate] But Bama beat UGA on the road and Texas didnt. And they also will have 1 more win than we do. And Texas went to OT with two teams and Bama didnt.

Get out of my brain!

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The problem is that it has to come at the expense of 3 loss Bama or ND. Both of those teams are gonna be hard to politic out.

Norte Dame has too many advocates(Alums or other  direct relationship)  in the board rooms and c-suites in the media and major corporate sponsors and as long as they have two loses, they will get into whatever we call the playoffs.   They could lose to a Texas and USC in the same season and play the likes of the bottom tier  of the Big 10 and ACC for the rest of their schedule with Navy in there and win all those and be in the Playoffs .  I'd argue even with three loses they'd get a pass because somehow only with the committee and some in the media, because the fact they get to pick their own schedule is looked at as a strength rather than a liability with them while many of us and to some extent a few in the media see it as a farce.  

Posted
1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Fyi, these are the only schools we have losing records against that arent in the SEC:

Air force 0-1

Byu 2-4

Minnesota 0-1

Ncst 0-1

Northwestern 0-1

Notre dame 3-9

Usc 2-5

Syracuse 0-2

Ucla 3-4

Va tech 0-1

Penn state 2-3

Are we 3-2 against Maryland?  For those records above, I don't mind that we begin whittling them down with future OOC schedules.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think Bama would need to look pathetic against Georgia. Game over by halftime, loss by 20+, offense looks hapless type of game. That's probably our best shot. 

BYU and Bama get totally embarrassed it could really help. Games that make it look like this is who they are. Meanwhile Arch's nuts finally dropped and he looks extremely dangerous. 

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Posted
Just now, BlackCat said:

BYU and Bama get totally embarrassed it could really help. Games that make it look like this is who they are. Meanwhile Arch's nuts finally dropped and he looks extremely dangerous. 

I feel dirty and might need significant counseling for rooting for Tech this weekend.    

Posted

Painful what ifs to consider. 

1. ND missed a PAT and then aggy went ahead on a last second 4th down TD pass where the refs ignored an obvious hold. That goes the other way and we jump a 2 loss aggy (with zero impressive wins) after thumping them soundly.

2. OU beat Auburn because of a blatantly illegal play that resulted in the refs getting fired. That goes the other way and we're ahead of 3 loss OU.

Posted
3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I mean, they just crushed a decent Tennessee team. They played Alabama pretty well too before giving up that late TD. There aren't 20 teams better than Vanderbilt. That offense is legit brutally efficient, and Pavia's improv skills are deadly. 

auerbach moved the goalposts to "top 15" to help bring our vandy win in to the discussion, but going further requires bringing the sec zebra fuckery in to the discussion and that's a 3rd rail

Posted
3 hours ago, mdmost said:

I agree that we'll keep Ohio State and Michigan. Completely agree that we should drop Notre Dame. We should not be in the business of allowing a team that has no conference structure to fight through to get credit when not winning games against big boy conferences. NBC would hate to lose the Texas game as Notre Dame isn't exactly killing it in the ratings unless they're playing an SEC team.

domer is 3 & 4 years out

disney is the target

Posted
41 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It’s not hard to figure out.  It’s teams that were top 25 when the game was played.  Can argue that doesn’t mean anything but that’s what that list is.  

But it would be wrong that way too. OU didn't play 6 teams that were ranked at the time they were played. It only gets to 6 if you count Texas. But if you count Texas, there should be 2 losses. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind seeing them get beat at Pyle by JMU.

I'm torn on JMU.  Part of me wants them to lose their CCG so Chesney can get down to bidness, but on the other hand, if he gets a little playoff run going, it enhances his profile and maybe helps recruiting and the portal.

Posted
1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

I'm torn on JMU.  Part of me wants them to lose their CCG so Chesney can get down to bidness, but on the other hand, if he gets a little playoff run going, it enhances his profile and maybe helps recruiting and the portal.

All putting James Madison and/or North Texas into the playoff will do is accelerate its death.  Quickly.   

Posted (edited)

Bama isn't getting left out, I don't think the CCG runner up in BIG or SEC will ever be left out. With a four-way tie of 1 conference loss teams all of them will get in. I can't imagine any committee saying "congrats Bama you won the tie breaker but you must win or you're out while the teams that lost the tie-breaker get in." I also think ND is in if for no other reason than they made it to the championship game last year which probably means something despite their weak conference schedule this year. So it seems to me that the last spot is down to OU and Texas. I just don't see ND being left out for a sixth SEC team. Being as objective as I can, I'd give the spot to UT. At that point I think it's fair to set aside the tOSU loss and go with the H2H win. It doesn't change the TV ratings analysis because this includes only the Big XII winner, ACC winner, G5 Champ, and 3 BIG schools (tOSU, IU, UO). The only chaos I see is if BYU beats Tech, the committee might find a way to put Tech in removing an SEC spot or ND. If Duke beats UVA, I don't see any discussion about letting UVA in and Miami IMO shouldn't even be considered if they couldn't make their own CCG, especially when a 7-5 team got a spot.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

If we get to 12 this week, I think a BYU blowout loss gets us in. Barely. And the reason would be - 3 top 10 wins and cannot punish Texas for going on the road to play Ohio State.  

mormon nation also has to show up in arlington - they have to own half of the 2 lower sections - if they can't do that having known for weeks they were likely in this game - then they don't deserve the playoff stage with a 1-point loss

Posted
1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

mormon nation also has to show up in arlington - they have to own half of the 2 lower sections - if they can't do that having known for weeks they were likely in this game - then they don't deserve the playoff stage with a 1-point loss

Too bad the Big XII couldn't have scheduled the game on Sunday.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I'm torn on JMU.  Part of me wants them to lose their CCG so Chesney can get down to bidness, but on the other hand, if he gets a little playoff run going, it enhances his profile and maybe helps recruiting and the portal.

Same position here, I personally want UNT to win and make the playoff. I think the publicity of the announcers praising him and mentioning his move to OSU will outweigh any temporary delays in recruiting, etc.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

But it would be wrong that way too. OU didn't play 6 teams that were ranked at the time they were played. It only gets to 6 if you count Texas. But if you count Texas, there should be 2 losses. 

Jesus, yes they did. 

UM 15

Auburn 22

Ole Miss 8

TN 14

Bama 4

Miz 22

Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

Same position here, I personally want UNT to win and make the playoff. I think the publicity of the announcers praising him and mentioning his move to OSU will outweigh any temporary delays in recruiting, etc.

#Pray4Duke

Posted
1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Jesus, yes they did. 

UM 15

Auburn 22

Ole Miss 8

TN 14

Bama 4

Miz 22

Well, fuck me. I suck at counting. Damn you and your soonering. It is still a stupid list. 

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Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

Well, fuck me. I suck at counting. Damn you and your soonering. It is still a stupid list. 

I'm not gonna defend that being a good metric.  Absurd to have Auburn in and UT out.   

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Posted
5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Bama isn't getting left out

I really don't understand why any of you are so sure about this. They are literally right on the knife's edge of not being in the playoff. If they get blown out by Georgia they could easily fall 3 spots and get fucked.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Painful what ifs to consider. 

1. ND missed a PAT and then aggy went ahead on a last second 4th down TD pass where the refs ignored an obvious hold. That goes the other way and we jump a 2 loss aggy (with zero impressive wins) after thumping them soundly.

2. OU beat Auburn because of a blatantly illegal play that resulted in the refs getting fired. That goes the other way and we're ahead of 3 loss OU.

Is this one of those things that someone claims and then others just repeat it? Referee Ken Williamson got "permanently suspended" by the SEC after the Georgia-Auburn game. His crew did not officiate the OU-Auburn game, Jeff Heaser's crew did and they continued to officiate games after OU-Auburn. 

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