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Perpetual Middle East Geopolitical Quagmire Megathread


Hugo Stiglitz

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I don't think there's going to be a change in regime. I do think it's more likely now than it has been since 1979. And I think that's an important part of the context. It's not been reported in our media to any real extent.
Yes, patriots rally around the flag, right up until they don't. i read a poll once that the Iranian government had a 13% approval rating. I'm not sure that in the process of having a mob destroy the state banking system and attack the 50 military bases you're going to see a lot of rallying around the flag. The goal of the protestors is to topple the government, they hate the mullahs and starting wars than bankrupt the country isn't likely to increase the government's support.
I think there are 13% of Iranians who genuinely want to destroy the Big Satan and hte Little Satan. I think those "patriots" are massively outnumbered by people who just want to live their lives.

I want regime change here. Very much so. But if a foreign power used violence to try to bring it about, I’d stand with my country. That’s the way 99% of the world thinks. A lot of Iranians aren’t happy with their government. But if we try to bully them into change, they’ll stand with their country. We’ll govern our own affairs, thank you.

Jesus. We haven’t learned a single thing from misadventure after misadventure. Not a single goddamned thing.
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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I want regime change here. Very much so. But if a foreign power used violence to try to bring it about, I’d stand with my country. That’s the way 99% of the world thinks. A lot of Iranians aren’t happy with their government. But if we try to bully them into change, they’ll stand with their country. We’ll govern our own affairs, thank you.

Jesus. We haven’t learned a single thing from misadventure after misadventure. Not a single goddamned thing.

When I was younger and dumb I thought it was about spreading freedom around the world.

It's just about finding the next natural resource to extract from a country that we can take it from by force. We are not liberators. We just turn countries into vassal states until their usefulness ends. In that respect I do think the neocons learned how to get what they want. Just wrap it all up in an American flag and say we're doing whatever bumblefuck adventure we're headed into in the name of liberty. It placates morons and it works. Like you have said repeatedly evil is a winning gameplan. It's all in how it gets presented.

Edited by UpperWestside
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8 hours ago, Goredho said:

Thought #1:  While I am horrified that Trump is in charge while this is playing out, Iraq/Iran/the ME is a problem he inherited.  The only right decision was never to invade Iraq in the first place.

Thought #2:  Given the number of decisions of similar scale that Trump makes flippantly on a regular basis, I wonder what problems of his origin that we'll be dealing with 2 decades from now?

Trump inherited an Iran in compliance with the multilateral nuclear deal and he unilaterally tore it to shreds. This is a problem of his own creation and we wouldn't be here if he wasn't hell bent on undoing every single one of Obama's achievements solely out of spite. 

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Who would have imagined that.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-biggest-fox-news-boosters-suddenly-stop-railing-against-deep-state-intelligence?ref=home

 

Quote

Suddenly, it appears the U.S. intelligence community is back in good standing over at Fox News.

Since Trump’s election, an inescapably common refrain of the president and his biggest boosters in conservative media has been to rail against the “deep state.” The Russian election interference probe, they’ve repeatedly said, was nothing more than a coup or disinformation campaign perpetrated by the anti-Trump intelligence community.

 

Quote

Over the past 24 hours, however, incessant Fox griping over “deep state” suddenly went quiet, replaced by sober pleas that—when it comes to the info allegedly justifying Trump’s ordered airstrike killing Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani—the U.S. intelligence community’s findings should be heeded and taken seriously as unimpeachably correct information.

Immediately after the Pentagon confirmed U.S. responsibility for the strike, claiming it “was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans,” Fox News host Sean Hannity—perhaps the most well-known “deep state” critic in media—heaped praise upon the intelligence community.

 

Quote

“The ability of the military, our intelligence community, the State Department, and the president making the call, very quickly, you know, understood that the Iranian forces on the ground bore a direct threat to the American people,” said Hannity, calling into his own show on Thursday night. “Once the intelligence was confirmed, once the understanding that they were there to sow the discord and discontent, the president acted as quickly as possible, taking out this top general.”

 

Quote

“But I will say the big headline is, this is a huge victory for American intelligence, a huge victory for our military, a huge victory for the State Department, and a huge victory and total leadership by the president,” the primetime host, who has spent more than two years and countless on-air segments railing against shadowy “deep state” intelligence, concluded.

 

Spoiler

By Friday morning, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went even further than the Pentagon, saying that it was necessary to take out Soleimani as it disrupted an “imminent attack,” adding that “the risk doing nothing was enormous” and the “intelligence community made that assessment and President Trump acted decisively last night.”

Following Pompeo’s assertions, Fox & Friends co-host Brian Kilmeade—who last month chastised a Daily Beast writer for not asking Lisa Page about a deep-state conspiracy theory—openly defended and applauded the intelligence community.

After Fox News star Geraldo Rivera sarcastically noted the “U.S. intelligence has been excellent since 2003 when we invaded Iraq, disrupted the entire region, for no real reason,” he told Kilmeade not to “start cheering this on” while claiming his colleague “never met a war you didn’t like.”

“I will cheer it on. I am elated,” Kilmeade exclaimed, adding that it’s “not true” that he loves war.

During a later appearance on Fox News’ The Daily Briefing, host Dana Perino—a former Bush White House press secretary—repeatedly claimed an attack was “imminent,” asking Kilmeade what the consequences would have been if Trump didn’t act.

“What everyone is missing, it's not our choice,” the Fox & Friends host replied. “These things are happening. It's how we react to what is happening.”

Kilmeade—no longer skeptical of intelligence officials—also insisted that the president didn’t need to brief Congress before killing the Iranian leader because he needed to act quickly due to the information obtained.

“But if you want him to get congressional approval over a strike that is time sensitive when an attack is imminent and he landed at the airport? Are you kidding me?” Kilmeade huffed.

During Friday’s broadcast of Fox Business Network’s Varney and Co., anchor Stuart Varney also seemed a bit amnesiac over his previous missives against the intelligence community. Despite claiming in the past that the “deep state” was trying to undermine Trump’s presidency, the pro-Trump host credulously touted Pompeo’s “imminent attack” claim throughout his show.

“That’s what Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, told Fox News earlier this morning, that there was an imminent attack and the president ordered the killing to stop that imminent attack,” Varney proclaimed at one point. “Good cause to do it.”

In a later segment, Fox & Friends Weekend host and unofficial Trump adviser Pete Hegseth—who once noted that the “American people didn’t vote for the Deep State”—also found newfound praise for the intel community, adding that Trump likely waited until the “intelligence lined up.”

A Fox News guest, however, seemed to reveal one of the biggest self-contradictions.

Former Trump adviser Christian Whiton lamented Friday on Fox News’ Outnumbered Overtime that it is “really sad” that Democrats “aren’t willing to give our president and our military the benefit of the doubt in a crisis.” 

A few weeks ago, though, Whiton gave no such benefit of the doubt to a member of both the military and intelligence community. During an interview with Fox Business host Lou Dobbs, Whiton called former National Security Council member and impeachment witness Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman a “deep state crybaby” who “poured himself into an Army outfit to go and frankly speak contemptuous things against the commander-in-chief.”

 

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1 minute ago, UpperWestside said:

When I was younger and dumb I thought it was about spreading freedom around the world.

It's just about finding the next natural resource to extract from a country that we can take it from by force. We are not liberators. We just turn countries into vassal states until their usefulness ends. In that respect I do think the neocons learned how to get what they want. Just wrap it all up in an American flag and say we're doing whatever bumblefuck adventure we're headed into in the name of liberty. It placates morons and it works. Like you have said repeatedly evil is a winning gameplan. It's all in how it gets presented.

Your country was attacked by evil shithead terrorists three days ago. Did you feel a surge of patriotism and love for Trump?

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1 minute ago, Thetexashammer said:

Your country was attacked by evil shithead terrorists three days ago. Did you feel a surge of patriotism and love for Trump?

No because trump is a narcissistic criminal scumbag controlled by a foreign power. Why would I feel love for that?

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46 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Jesus. We haven’t learned a single thing from misadventure after misadventure. Not a single goddamned thing.

One of the tenants of Trumpism was that his supporters had learned something from our endless military adventures. It’s one reason many said they voted for him.

But we’re talking about retards, so yes you are correct.

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38 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

When I was younger and dumb I thought it was about spreading freedom around the world.

It's just about finding the next natural resource to extract from a country that we can take it from by force. We are not liberators. We just turn countries into vassal states until their usefulness ends. In that respect I do think the neocons learned how to get what they want. Just wrap it all up in an American flag and say we're doing whatever bumblefuck adventure we're headed into in the name of liberty. It placates morons and it works. Like you have said repeatedly evil is a winning gameplan. It's all in how it gets presented.

I am 100% in agreement. I opposed the first Iraq War. I remember talking to a roommate about driving to DC to protest. I opposed the 2nd Iraq war. I continue to wonder why we're in Afhanistan, there is obviously no purpose.

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34 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Trump inherited an Iran in compliance with the multilateral nuclear deal and he unilaterally tore it to shreds. This is a problem of his own creation and we wouldn't be here if he wasn't hell bent on undoing every single one of Obama's achievements solely out of spite. 

Are you sure? Seems likes the knuckledraggers at CFR disagree with you.

https://www.cfr.org/interview/significance-irans-secret-nuclear-plant

Quote

The disclosure on September 25 that Iran has been secretly building a second uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom is raising fresh concerns over Iran’s intentions for its nuclear program. CFR’s Michael A. Levi, an expert on Iranian nuclear developments, says the latest development "shows that Iran is still willing to try to create covert facilities that could be used to make a nuclear weapon, either entirely in secret, or so much in secret that by the time we find out what’s going on, it’s too late to respond effectively."  Levi says that "the bottom-line significance is that this shows Iran’s willingness to hide" its nuclear plans and raises the likelihood of more severe sanctions if forthcoming negotiations do not produce good results.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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The one fucking time he reads, Trump decides to read that little footer at the bottom in a different font like some kinda final fuck-you from David Foster Wallace to society.  

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7 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I am 100% in agreement. I opposed the first Iraq War. I remember talking to a roommate about driving to DC to protest. I opposed the 2nd Iraq war. I continue to wonder why we're in Afhanistan, there is obviously no purpose.

I was way too young to know what was happening in the First Gulf War. My Oma died the day Saddam invaded Kuwait so I did d not care one iota about it. 

The 2nd Gulf War I supported. I was still a young moron. I had ideals for America. Again I was dumb. 

The Afghanistan fiasco is still an on-going disaster and monetary drain. We momentarily stopped the Taliban and got to puff out our chest. Here we are two decades later and they are still the same damn backwards society they were in 2001. Women are still treated like baby-making machines who should never learn to count to 10. I also have no idea what the point of being there is.

It is good to see you have some points you can find common ground on with those of us who do not entirely agree with you. In my youth I read this happened far more often than our currently polarized society. I mean we are all just people trying to find our way through life at the end of the day.

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28 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Your country was attacked by evil shithead terrorists three days ago. Did you feel a surge of patriotism and love for Trump?

I feel nothing but awful for the human beings who suffer due to terrible decisions from those in a position of power.

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7 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

The Vice President is on Twitter basically claiming that Iran did 9/11:

They're really so lazy they're just replacing a "Q" with an "N" and peddling the exact same lies.

Pence knows this bullshit but the Trumpkins do not know the fucking difference between Shiites and Sunnis. Shit, they were all in on isolationism up until yesterday and now they are back to being Dubya era "America Fuck Yeah! Military Adventurism."

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36 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

I was way too young to know what was happening in the First Gulf War. My Oma died the day Saddam invaded Kuwait so I did d not care one iota about it. 

The 2nd Gulf War I supported. I was still a young moron. I had ideals for America. Again I was dumb. 

The Afghanistan fiasco is still an on-going disaster and monetary drain. We momentarily stopped the Taliban and got to puff out our chest. Here we are two decades later and they are still the same damn backwards society they were in 2001. Women are still treated like baby-making machines who should never learn to count to 10. I also have no idea what the point of being there is.

It is good to see you have some points you can find common ground on with those of us who do not entirely agree with you. In my youth I read this happened far more often than our currently polarized society. I mean we are all just people trying to find our way through life at the end of the day.

One of the most fantastic places I have ever visited is the War Museum in Seoul. It's right across from our base at Yongsan. When you walk into the the museum, you first enter this big hall. I can't remember what's on all the exhibits, but when you walk into the main hall, I think it's off to the left, there's one of those brass inscriptions. It has a couple of paragraphs, but the part I remember is the beginning. "If you desire peace, prepare for war". The quote was from hundreds of years ago. 

Democrats love power. Republicans love power. They express that love for power in different ways, but they're both worthless and corrupt parties. 

The Democrats are appeasers. History demonstrates really clearly that appeasement is bad. You have to punch back when attacked. We have been repeatedly attacked by Iran. We had to hit back, and we chose a good target.

Republicans are mostly neocons even though most of their base is like me. Nobody wants a land war in Asia. Well, except for Republitards who can puff out their chests and feel manly since they didn't actually serve. 

Iran can retaliate but we have hundreds of cruise missiles parked in the Gulf aimed at Iran. More targeted assassinations, I would suspect, some infrastructure. You have to respond when attacked or you beget more attacks. It's what we did wrong with Bin Laden. Clinton could have killed him. Most people don't realize we have those cruise missiles pointed at Iran, but you bet your ass the Iranians do. 

Basically, it's all too complicated for politicians, who are the most worthless, corrupt, ignorant people on the planet. They almost always fuck it up.

The chance of a land war in Iran or other serious escalation remains 0.0000000%. Iran isn't in position to project force. We are.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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18 minutes ago, F250 said:

Pence knows this bullshit but the Trumpkins do not know the fucking difference between Shiites and Sunnis. Shit, they were all in on isolationism up until yesterday and now they are back to being Dubya era "America Fuck Yeah! Military Adventurism."

Well some of the terrorists who perpetrated 9/11 did travel through Iran as the VP says. I’m sure the Iranians were simply feeling charitable and wanted to help some Sunnis pass through to Afghanistan and then points further west. 

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1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

The chance of a land war in Iran or other serious escalation remains 0.0000000%. Iran isn't in position to project force. We are.

I'm afraid you're about to realize this is very wrong.

Iran doesn't have to project force.  But they do have to save face.  And that's exactly what Trump wants.  They're gonna give him a reason.

And now apparently some Democrats in the House are already waffling on sending over the Articles of Impeachment while this is going on.

So it's working.

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I've been telling colleagues and friends for at least a year that if the polling is close...  If it even looks like he'll lose the election and have to face SDNY charges...  He'll pick a fight with Iran or NK.  We won't change leadership in the middle of a major war, especially if it looks like we're winning (and that how it'll look on Fox, regardless of reality).

What other card does he have to play at this point?

 

Edited by TexArcher
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2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I've been telling colleagues and friends for at least a year that if the polling is close...  If it even looks like he'll lose the election and have to face SDNY charges...  He'll pick a fight with Iran or NK.  We won't change leadership in the middle of a major war, especially if it looks like we're winning (and that how it'll look on Fox, regardless of reality).

What other card does he have to play at this point?

 

He will absolutely do this. He does not want to face reality and whatever he has to do in order to avoid it will be done. If you told Dotard he had to conduct a drone strike on Dotard Jr and his family in order to avoid jail you know what he would do.

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22 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm afraid you're about to realize this is very wrong.

Iran doesn't have to project force.  But they do have to save face.  

And that is why the political environment I referenced (and nobody else did) is relevant. They recently shut down the entire internet in their country. We massively overpower them. Their banking system was destroyed. The protestors attacked 50 military bases. Even the threat to shut down Hormuz is a joke. 

You think they can start shit with us? Good Luck /MarcoFromTropoja

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Well fuck, multiple decades spent fighting two winless wars in the ME and @Thetexashammer found one we can win in minutes.

fuck it, fire up the Toby Keith, let’s do this shit!

Oil was up $2 yesterday. All you need to know.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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Jesus. It’s as if the Trunpkins do t even understand that asymmetric warfare is a thing. They aren’t going to load up a bunch a tanks and attack our bases.

We’re just gonna get a bunch of shit and people blown up. Maybe some ships. Maybe a real disruption in the straits. Maybe some targeted killings of officials in vulnerable places. There’s a whole menu of shit they can do - shit they’ve done before, even.

It ain’t about winning or losing. It’s about how much damage they can do. It’s the TCU cockroach thing.

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So pence is claiming since 10 hijackers traveled through Iran, we have to go to war with the them?   

ten of the hijackers also traveled through Hudson News and Cinnabon that morning.  Can we declare war on them?

Edited by Lobo
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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Jesus. It’s as if the Trunpkins do t even understand that asymmetric warfare is a thing. They aren’t going to load up a bunch a tanks and attack our bases.

We’re just gonna get a bunch of shit and people blown up. Maybe some ships. Maybe a real disruption in the straits. Maybe some targeted killings of officials in vulnerable places. There’s a whole menu of shit they can do - shit they’ve done before, even.

It ain’t about winning or losing. It’s about how much damage they can do. It’s the TCU cockroach thing.

Exactly.

The whole "they can't beat us in a fight, so they can't start a fight with us" narrative is nonsense.

They can do plenty to fuck with us and our economy, and our allies' economies, without even looking in the direction of an American or NATO military target.

We just walked up and punched them in the mouth.  They're too proud not to swing back.  Which of course gives us reason to punch them three more times.  America, fuck yeah.

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58 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Well some of the terrorists who perpetrated 9/11 did travel through Iran as the VP says. I’m sure the Iranians were simply feeling charitable and wanted to help some Sunnis pass through to Afghanistan and then points further west. 

There is absolutely no evidence the Iranians assisted the 9/11 hijackers and an investigation under the Bush administration determined as much. Keep in mind these were the same people that wanted to enact regime change in Iran but couldn't make up additional shit after the WMD canard.

Don't be a fucking fool.

Edited by F250
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Just now, F250 said:

There is absolutely no evidence the Iranians assisted the 9/11 hijackers and an investigation under the Bush administration determined as much. Keep in mind these were the same people that wanted to enact regime change in Iran but couldn't make up additional shit after the WMR canard.

Don't be a fucking fool.

Aren’t we fucking tired of having to explain to morons that claims with no evidence are not necessarily true!?!?  We are playing cards with our brother’s kids here!  

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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

So pence is claiming since 10 hijackers traveled through Iran, we have to go to war with the them?   

ten of the hijackers also traveled through Hudson News and Cinnabon that morning.  Can we declare war on them?

This but you get mouth breathing ass eaters thinking, "that makes sense." Pence is going after the low IQ voters with this bullshit and it works.

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

That’s chrispy’s line. Former surly troll. RIP. Chrispy 2 is now around though.

Try not to get all your socks mixed up.

It’s a decent line.
 

I couldn’t think of anything better to say to someone that is so delusional. 

This shit is really beating some of y’all down. You need to step back and shift some focus to something else. 

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2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s a decent line.
 

I couldn’t think of anything better to say to someone that is so delusional. 

This shit is really beating some of y’all down. You need to step back and shift some focus to something else. 

Nah it’s just a troll phrase. Designed to get people worked up. Sorry but your troll techniques don’t work on me. Better luck with others. 

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3 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

I am 100% in agreement. I opposed the first Iraq War. I remember talking to a roommate about driving to DC to protest. I opposed the 2nd Iraq war. I continue to wonder why we're in Afhanistan, there is obviously no purpose.

Lol you are so full of shit.

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11 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I’m calling bullshit on that story. Even this administration has advanced beyond PowerPoint

 

Hmmmm... I'm not so sure. They're probably still using that stupid flannel-graph thing from Sunday school and VBS. 

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