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1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

No evidence of it, so it's probably propaganda, but it's enough to scare the residents inside the city. They think it's true/possible.

I don't need to see evidence to know it's true/possible. Just read history. Not saying this account is true. No way to know. But women outside of a war zone have to constantly be aware that predatory men exist and that rape is a possibility. Often times from people they know, statistically speaking. When there's no real law enforcement and the likelihood for consequences is virtually nil, the chances of it escalate a thousand fold. They should be scared.

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22 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think the problem is we view Ukraine as this great country but it honestly was a piece of shit and corrupt as hell.

It was more corrupt under Yanukovych.  I have no doubt there's still plenty of corruption there now, though.

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5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Half of America doesn't even know where Ukraine is.  We all tend to believe we give a shit but just wait for the next news story to dominate the headline.  And for as much as we want to believe everything.  The news is being awfully vague about what is happening

Half of America doesn't know where Colombia is.  Or Lithuania.  Or Germany.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Please stay off this thread. I’m getting tired of good threads being moved to cr. If you do it then it should be your responsibility to create a daily thread. I refuse to go to cr for obvious reasons.

I keep thinking this.  The moderators are cunts. Move the thread and it kills it.  They don't have anything good to add so STFU

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4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Half of America doesn't even know where Ukraine is.  We all tend to believe we give a shit but just wait for the next news story to dominate the headline.  And for as much as we want to believe everything.  The news is being awfully vague about what is happening

I am one of the last defenders of real news. It has its place and its uses.  Look, I can follow Nextel and get excited about shit hours or even a day before CBS tells me it happened. But if Nextel is just wrong, the simply “Tweet through it” as Gen Z says. CBS getting shit wrong means jobs lost and several days of content for Tucker Carlson. 

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9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know I keep bringing up Bosnia, but this is a reason. Once the horror of a war was reduced, by media fatigue, interest dropped and so did the push to fuck up the Serbs (and then the Croats.) 

I think Russia is going to keep slogging forward to the Dnieper and then halt. Encircle Kyiv and look at the west and ok, lets talk or we keep leveling the city. We can rotate units, the UA cannot. 

Hearing that the UA is hitting out with counter attacks is nice to hear. If they can knock out some real combat units, great, but this is not about terrain at this stage for the UA. It is about not losing. For the Ruskies it is about terrain. 

Fucked times. Glad to have the analysis and jokes on this thread. 

yep.  the key is that column coming from the east.  if that gets to Kiev its over.  He's about to take Odessa and control the entire black sea shore.

there is still a lot of the river to get control of though.  he'll need them to capitulate to get all that I think.  the insurgency sets up in the west potentially and it's declared some sort of buffer.

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3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't need to see evidence to know it's true/possible. Just read history. Not saying this account is true. No way to know. But women outside of a war zone have to constantly be aware that predatory men exist and that rape is a possibility. Often times from people they know, statistically speaking. When there's no real law enforcement and the likelihood for consequences is virtually nil, the chances of it escalate a thousand fold. They should be scared.

And that's the thing.  War is hell.  I talk to my marine friends and they will readily admit they did some really fucked up shit in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Like really bad stuff war crime type stuff.  They aren't proud of it now but they said man we were taught that those people were sub human.  

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2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I keep thinking this.  The moderators are cunts. Move the thread and it kills it.  They don't have anything good to add so STFU

Well that is what happened to the COVID thread we had here. Moved and died vs. smacking the shit out of violators. Maybe we need a Bolivia thread where only those who cannot keep CR in the CR get sent. 

 

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4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

It was more corrupt under Yanukovych.  I have no doubt there's still plenty of corruption there now, though.

You’ve heard the saying, “poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States” ? 
 

Far from God and close to Russia is several times worse. It ain’t all their fault. 

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10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Look, Ukraine is at war and they’re gonna do as hard to get everything they can. And they’re playing the info war well and they’re doing unbelievable public diplomacy and that shit works.  But remember, we’re on their side and we want them to win but we’re not identical with them.

These sanctions are fucking up Russia badly. Their second largest airline stopped international flights. The ruble is shit. There’s bank runs. They can’t go to gotdamn IKEA man. 
 

The West also has to plan for the longer game. All this support for Ukraine will fade and people will just hear about a war far away and if they’re paying five bucks for gas they will lose interest even quicker.  The balance is things that bite that hurt them more than you. 

One thing we did to try to influence the length of this war to end quicker was the thing with their Central Bank, where we froze rubles in their accounts. That used to be sacrosanct but we touched that unchartered territory and there is no playbook for how it will affect everyone else. There might be pain for all of us that we don't know about yet. We are in for a ride.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

yep.  the key is that column coming from the east.  if that gets to Kiev its over.  He's about to take Odessa and control the entire blae tck sea shore.

there is still a lot of the river to get control of though.  he'll need them to capitulate to get all that I think.  the insurgency sets up in the west potentially and it's declared some sort of buffer.

Today you have a border within Bosnia seperating the federation from the Republika Srbska. One concept was declare Sarajevo an independent city with humanitarian corridors. The Serbs and their Russian overlords would not allow that vote to happen. Lots died from that decision. 

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Yeah, the Balkans just became background noise. This is just how it works, and it’s bad for the Ukrainians to just turn into some war-torn country where no one remembers why they are fighting.  

But Russia has crossed some serious lines. Even if they win on the ground there’s no getting plugged back in to the West. China is not a substitute, yet, and maybe never will be.  Putin has most likely wrecked Russia for a generation or more. I wonder if Russians are getting on Weibo yet. 

Yeah, for all fo the talk about Georgia or Crimea or Chechnya, etc., this has shifted everything.  There is no going back from this, and even if they continue to pound Ukraine, there will be a point where their economy can't pull out of the tailspin, and they can't manufacturer replacement vehicles.  Hell, they are already losing vehicles whose production shut down years ago.

Russia cannot hold out in the long run, in the hopes that China can keep their economy afloat, because hell, China is not going to let an opportunity pass to make more money off of Russia, and to put Russia even more under their thumb.  They were already building up a defense industry that would compete and eventually pass up Russia (and they are already starting to take Russian contracts).

 

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7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Half of America doesn't even know where Ukraine is.  We all tend to believe we give a shit but just wait for the next news story to dominate the headline.  And for as much as we want to believe everything.  The news is being awfully vague about what is happening

Last night I was at dinner and began to wonder just how many millions of people in this country don't realize how they're closer to nuclear annihilation at this moment than they've possibly ever been in their lives. Depending on what's on Putin's mind and his subordinates' willingness to carry out their own destruction it could be insanely close. 

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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Why would you think it's not true?    Have you seen the videos of entire civilian apartment blocks leveled?  You think those were empty when they were destroyed?  Do you think mass murder and genocide is okay with them, but rape is just completely off-limits?

 

This is not meant as an attack on you, but I feel like genocide is a term thrown around very loosely, when it should be a term used very specifically. What the Russians are doing is not genocide. There is actual genocide being committed right now, specifically in Africa, where men and boys are wiped out, and the women are forcibly impregnated. This is a brutal, ruthless invasion with very little regard for human life. But it's not genocide.

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As far as Ukraine implications we are being weak on Russia that's just wrong.  I would be willing to bet the impact on the Russian economy is much more significant than even intended or expected given the vast private sector pull out.  And would not be surprised if some are advocating we don't pile on.   

But I don't blame Ukraine at all for trying to advocate for more help in any way possible.  We just have to view any statements through that lens.  They are clearly desperate.

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1 minute ago, Hermanator said:

Last night I was at dinner and began to wonder just how many millions of people in this country don't realize how they're closer to nuclear annihilation at this moment than they've possibly ever been in their lives. Depending on what's on Putin's mind and his subordinates' willingness to carry out their own destruction it could be insanely close. 

Yep.  I was out at steak night with a group.  4-5 ex military.  But various backgrounds.  I was kind of appalled at some of the thinking.  A few of them are convinced this is a Biden conspiracy and Putin is the victim.  It's just weird all around and there was no changing their thought.  

 

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9 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am one of the last defenders of real news. It has its place and its uses.  Look, I can follow Nextel and get excited about shit hours or even a day before CBS tells me it happened. But if Nextel is just wrong, the simply “Tweet through it” as Gen Z says. CBS getting shit wrong means jobs lost and several days of content for Tucker Carlson. 

Exactly.  It used to be where media doesn't print a story until they can confirm it.  Now everyone wants to break the story.  But even if they are wrong they just put the redaction on page 8.  But in that mean time everyone already has their mindset that what they said was true.

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10 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Half of America doesn't know where Colombia is.  Or Lithuania.  Or Germany.  

 

Toqueville wrote about this in his book Democracy in America. The two volumes were written in 1835 and 1840. While it's not all germane, it's astounding how much of it still rings true 190 years later. Specifically he references the isolationist tendencies of Americans, and posits the influence of geography in terms of size and the two oceans, and the vast resources available which makes the US more self sufficient than other nations. It's absolutely a cultural phenomenon. There are some others, like the emphasis on creativity and independence, but the tendency towards isolationism is absolutely there in the general population. 

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6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

yep.  the key is that column coming from the east.  if that gets to Kiev its over.  He's about to take Odessa and control the entire black sea shore.

there is still a lot of the river to get control of though.  he'll need them to capitulate to get all that I think.  the insurgency sets up in the west potentially and it's declared some sort of buffer.

That convoy, assuming you are talking about the rail convoy from the Far East, will take around a week to get to Ukraine, probably closer to 10 days.

We will have a good idea of how this is going to play out in the next few days I think.  Either that convoy north of Kyiv finally makes it to Kyiv, or a lot of those forces collapse, and that's before we get into the counter-attack from Western Ukraine.  If that convoy was truly 40km of evenly-spaced supply trucks, and the Ukrainians kept knocking out chunks of it, that's a shit-ton of supplies that the Russians simply can't easily replace.

Russia doesn't even currently have enough foot soldiers in Ukraine to protect their own forces/convoys, so throwing more vehicles in as replacements won't help much, especially if that gives the Ukrainians 7-10 days to continue going on counter-offensives, taking out bridges, etc.

We in the West are way too focused on them leveling civilian buildings, and not paying attention to the fact that they aren't throwing foot soldiers into a lot of the cities, or are even getting pushed back.

That ambush in Hostomel shocked a lot of folks with all of the dead Russian soldiers and body parts, but that is exactly what happens if you send a bunch of dudes in APCs into a contested city without having dismounted infantry securing the area around them.

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6 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

This is not meant as an attack on you, but I feel like genocide is a term thrown around very loosely, when it should be a term used very specifically. What the Russians are doing is not genocide. There is actual genocide being committed right now, specifically in Africa, where men and boys are wiped out, and the women are forcibly impregnated. This is a brutal, ruthless invasion with very little regard for human life. But it's not genocide.

You should probably understand that a common definition of genocide is below:

"the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group"

We had hoped that Putin's goal was NOT this.  But Putin's actions appear to be this.

And honestly, we don't need you or anyone else thread-policing this open discourse, other than keeping things from becoming cloaked up, which is in all of our best interests.

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9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

yeah, this is a big deal. Lots of hungry people coming to the third world nation near you. 

6 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

That shockwave is going to be insane. Growing season is just about to start. 

And that's going to help drive world opinion against Russia even more than it already is.

Russia/Soviets liked to pretend that they were on the side of a lot of second-world/third-world nations, but fucking up their food supplies and making the citizens starve is going to be a deal breaker for a lot of those nations.

And it could fuck with Chinese businesses/foreign policy if unrest crops up in countries that were mostly stable.

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21 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Why would you think it's not true?    Have you seen the videos of entire civilian apartment blocks leveled?  You think those were empty when they were destroyed?  Do you think mass murder and genocide is okay with them, but rape is just completely off-limits?

 

I don't think it's not true. It's certainly possible. I was just pointing out there is no direct evidence of it. Historically speaking Russians invading and raping women en masse it very on brand.

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4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yep.  I was out at steak night with a group.  4-5 ex military.  But various backgrounds.  I was kind of appalled at some of the thinking.  A few of them are convinced this is a Biden conspiracy and Putin is the victim.  It's just weird all around and there was no changing their thought.  

 

My brother and I were both 0331 machine gunners in the Marine Corps through Iraqi Freedom. We couldn’t be polar opposite’s regarding this issue. I’m about ready to go fight for Ukraine and their freedom and he’s about ready to go fight for Russia and exterminate neo-nazi’ism. It’s confusing as fuck. 

He doesn’t believe me when I tell him the Ukrainien President is jewish decent.   

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1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

I don't think it's not true. It's certainly possible. I was just pointing out there is no direct evidence of it. Historically speaking Russians invading and raping women en masse it very on brand.

Barring a live stream I'm not sure you're ever going to have direct evidence of it.

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2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yep.  I was out at steak night with a group.  4-5 ex military.  But various backgrounds.  I was kind of appalled at some of the thinking.  A few of them are convinced this is a Biden conspiracy and Putin is the victim.  It's just weird all around and there was no changing their thought.  

 

Russian propaganda and disinformation is effective on the groups it targets.  Already seeing a new narrative in Central Europe—that the refugee flows aren’t really Ukrainian because the fighting isn’t bad, they are African and Middle Easterners exploiting the crisis.

This works in a number of ways. First, Ukrainian migrants are generally sympathetic and seen as hard workers (unlike wealthy Russians), and second there’s the blatant play for latent racism and bigotry. Finally, there’s a kernel of truth— Ukraine has a decent number of African students fleeing (legacy of Soviet romancing of Africa and modern day lax visa policy and affordability) and Belarus likely IS trying to sneak in some of the Syrians and Iraqis it got stuck with after the EU called them on their bullshit (flying in Iraqis and Syrians and then frogmarching them to the nearest “green border”).

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1 minute ago, Constant said:

My brother and I were both 0331 machine gunners in the Marine Corps through Iraqi Freedom. We couldn’t be polar opposite’s regarding this issue. I’m about ready to go fight for Ukraine and their freedom and he’s about ready to go fight for Russia and exterminate neo-nazi’ism. It’s confusing as fuck. 

He doesn’t believe me when I tell him the Ukrainien President is jewish decent.   

I agree.  He seems very decent.

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I know it’s early but this is shaping up to be one of the worst geopolitical moves of all time. Putin has woken up ALL of his enemies out of their persistent complacency and inspired them to rebuild their militaries and strengthen alliances. To say that he collapsed the economy is an understatement. And to top it all off, he’s losing the ground war.

He has framed this as fighting “Nazis” to his domestic audience. So if he wants to withdraw or is eventually forced to due to a lack of materiel and fuel he basically has to tell the country “I just decided to let the Nazis keep Ukraine because it was really expensive to fight them”. Pretty soon, all of his secret police are gonna get pissed that their wages are no longer enough to feed their family.

At this pace I think he’ll be lucky to hold onto a unified Russia and not have a breakaway province (looking at you, Chechnya) stage a successful uprising.

 

edit: Russians also can now look forward to a future filled with economic exploitation by the friendliest nation on earth - China.

Edited by Auto Driller
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1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

I know it’s early but this is shaping up to be one of the worst geopolitical moves of all time. Putin has woken up ALL of his enemies out of their persistent complacency and inspired them to rebuild their militaries and strengthen alliances. To say that he collapsed the economy is an understatement. And to top it all off, he’s losing the ground war.

He has framed this as fighting “Nazis” to his domestic audience. So if he wants to withdraw or is eventually forced to due to a lack of materiel and fuel he basically has to tell the country “I just decided to let the Nazis keep Ukraine because it was really expensive to fight them”. Pretty soon, all of his secret police are gonna get pissed that their wages are no longer enough to feed their family.

At this pace I think he’ll be lucky to hold onto a unified Russia and not have a breakaway province (looking at you, Chechnya) stage a successful uprising.

Yeah, that's something else.  There's a shitload of Russian people who will tolerate a lot, but are going to wonder about their wages, bank accounts, pensions, etc.

And the younger folks are not going to remember the glory days of the USSR and not understand why Putin and the olds miss it.

But Putin has to keep his military and the various police agencies paid.

He has to take care of the Praetorians National Guard he created to protect regional and national leaders.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41900643

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for elite soldiers in a new force - the National Guard - to protect the country's regional governors.

The proposal comes in a bill that MPs are expected to approve. The parliament is dominated by MPs loyal to Mr Putin.

Quote

The National Guard, launched last year, is headed by Mr Putin's ex-bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a longstanding ally.

Mr Putin has appointed 11 new governors ahead of a March presidential election. He is expected to seek a fourth term.

Quote

The new men are overwhelmingly younger than the governors they replaced.

Russian governors are appointed by the Kremlin and generally come from the Moscow power structure. Some have little previous connection with the region they are directed to manage.

Quote

Currently elite state bodyguards are assigned only to the president, prime minister, top parliamentary and justice officials and visiting foreign leaders.

 

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6 minutes ago, Constant said:

My brother and I were both 0331 machine gunners in the Marine Corps through Iraqi Freedom. We couldn’t be polar opposite’s regarding this issue. I’m about ready to go fight for Ukraine and their freedom and he’s about ready to go fight for Russia and exterminate neo-nazi’ism. It’s confusing as fuck. 

He doesn’t believe me when I tell him the Ukrainien President is jewish decent.   

Yeah one of my really good friends who I fish with and shoot the shit with all the time said Putin is a god fearing Christian and is doing God's work.  I sat there and asked him if he believes it was the truth and he said Judgement day is coming and God will prove Vladimir right.  

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I’m very late but just getting around to listing to Putin’s press conference/war talk. I’ve heard him speak hundreds of times - he isn’t right. Ambling, making no sense, confusing nouns and verbs. He very well might be simply exhausted/fatigued but he sounds nothing like his normal self. 

Something to watch I guess. No one around him will do anything if he’s going nuts so that’ll be fun theater. 

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25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And that's going to help drive world opinion against Russia even more than it already is.

Russia/Soviets liked to pretend that they were on the side of a lot of second-world/third-world nations, but fucking up their food supplies and making the citizens starve is going to be a deal break for a lot of those nations.

but will it? Really? It will create a run on humanitarian stockpiles (mostly US Provided) that sit in warehouses around the globe. Great time to invest in trucking companies in these places. That is where we always get fucked trying to deliver food. We have the food, we don't have trucks/drivers/security. 

And the second consideration is most of these countries have no fear beating the shit out of their population to maintain control. In the past Russia just bribes the governments with cheap oil and fuel. Think there is a reason Eritrea keeps voting no in the UN on Putin's side? 

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Ukrainian Lady inside Kherson on Fox news said their local telegram channel is saying there have been 11 rapes so far, 6 died afterward and 5 survived. So they're shooting them afterward. She also said that Russia sent 3 trucks of food for "Humanitarian Aid" but nobody showed up, so they had to go into Crimea to fake handing it out to civilians. Also, Russia has been able to start piping in Russian propaganda channels on their TV.

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