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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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45 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We can't live in fear of the threats of mad men.  

Totally agree. I just think if things potentially collapse in Russia, Putin isn't seeking a treaty that allows him to retire peacefully to his dacha. He's wanted for war crimes and the noose is getting tighter. And he's apparently fucking crazy.

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The “Russian Volunteer Corps” has released a Video which is reported to show at least 10 Russian POWs which were Captured recently during Fighting in the Belgorod Region; with the RVC stating that a Prisoner Exchange which was planning to occur today at the Shebekino Border-Cross did not occur because the Governor of the Belgorod Region, Vyacheslav Gladkov did not show up, with them further stating that the Leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin is the only one who has showed “Courage” by announcing his Readiness to Negotiate with the Group.

Happy Simon Cowell GIF by America's Got Talent

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52 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Watching this, I am trying to figure out how many drinks it would take for me to be stupid enough to stick my head out and film in the direction of what is clearly part of the  line of return fire and/or richochets .  Those 2 dudes he's filming are CLEARLY hiding from or worried about incoming rounds

 

answer is clearly, Russia gonna Russia

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3 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Russian tears taste surprisingly delicious given they’re bottom-feeders.

https://dnyuz.com/2023/06/03/everything-changed-the-war-arrives-on-russians-doorstep/

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Ruslan, the English teacher, said that he was always opposed to the war, and that his position hasn’t changed with the destruction of his city. But his feelings toward Ukraine have.

“I thought I was able to empathize, but when it comes to your home, it’s a completely different feeling,” he said.

“I understand that it’s all because of Putin, but at the same time I have a slightly different attitude toward the Ukrainian armed forces,” he continued.

“Now I think, maybe they are no different from ours.”

Ruslan doesn’t know those are Russian rebels attacking his city?

Tough shitski, as my late MIL would say.

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“Let's be honest, this is not a position the attacking side wants to find itself in. You exhausted all your offensive potential, you're bracing for an ever-increasing likelihood of a major defensive battle with forces very different from what you had at the peak, all while the enemy is making significant moves in your vulnerable underbelly at your pre-war borders.

Things indeed seem so bad that I sometimes think they are giving up on purpose. Their channels are all just sharing each other's statements about the "nazis", it's so much cope and zero substance, no clear military narrative. Prigozhin is the only one appearing in public but he's hardly convincing or reassuring, just trolling. 

I think Russia could be at the negotiating table right now begging Ukraine and the Allies to agree to peace conditions in order to have a chance to save the country.

And this is just how things are right this moment, before anything that's coming has happened... (which I have no insights into”

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Wagner detained and interrogated a Russian brigade-commander from the Bakhmut area. This is fucking nuts - the Russian Army is allowing a PMC to kidnap its officers and torture them. This is a complete breakdown in command and control in Ukraine.

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PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut. They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them. They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.

 

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The plot thickens.  Kadyrov wants to go to Belgorod, because he's got 70,000 special forces-trained troops fully-equipped with the latest tech and ready to fight.  Guess they aren't needed in Ukraine?

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Ramzan Kadyrov says he has 70,000 fully equipped and spetsnaz-trained troops in Ukraine and offers his help in Belgorod. Aside from Russian MoD and PMC Wagner, there is a third side in this internal conflict, Kadyrov, who has beef with Prigozhin. Whether he actually has these troops is another question.

(Narrator: "He doesn't.")

Awhile back we discussed the push/pull of Ukraine needing to move fast, as opposed to let Russia's internal problems simmer longer.  Seems the pot might be about to boil over.

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47 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I'm starting to think the counteroffensive is going to be way more successful than anyone thinks. UA running through Russian lines like shit through a goose and gobbling up land in chunks, and people are going wonder if the West was actively participating. Leaking that the tip of the spear will be NATO trained Ukrainian troops cuts off the upcoming claim of NATO forces running the operations.

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On 6/3/2023 at 12:55 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Bringing this post up as I think these new PMCs are going to be a factor in the upcoming warlord cage match. I had not heard too much aside from Putin adding his blessing to encourage these new forces. Which still dumbfounds me that he would continue to empower a faction build up. Instead of trying to consolidate the chain of command he is instead fragmenting his power.

Now I can see certain positives with this initiative:

1) Secret mobilization - allows deployment of existing security personnel without utilizing an official 2nd wave of mobilization.

2) Offset costs  - forces PMCs to shoulder most of the burden of recruitment/salary/equipment costs.

3) Administrative structure - bypasses the need for governmental red tape and utilizes existing corporate hierarchy to handle the fine print.

4) Weaken Wagner - by advocating new PMCs, Putin is clearly limiting the funding and resources for Priggy.

 

However it is just insane to me that he does not consider all of the drawbacks:

1) Fragmented chain of command - the existing COC has been horrible and adding in multiple players is just going to detoriate further. I wonder if this is also a sign that they may not have enough leadership structure to even train and utilize these new bodies in the regular army in the first place.

2) Corruption will continue - who knows how many of those recorded mercs are actually available on the front? Guaranteed that these companies will over report the number of bodies available for duty.

3) Legitimizes factions - this has made it very legal for private businesses to expand on their security forces. They have time to organize trainers, equipment, and build together teams with more advanced tactics than what would normally be acceptable. While not at the same level of experience as Wagner it is a big first step for building a functional fight force that has inherent loyalty to the company and not the state.

 

Now Gazprom is a state business and essentially another wallet for Putin, making those PMCs nominally his private army but there have got to be other oligarchs building up their forces. Teaming up with other mafia muscle to cement a survival plan for once vova Putin bites a bullet. They may not all be ambitious in securing the top spot but they are definitely trying to preserve their fiefdoms. If not actively knocking out competitors they will be muscled up to stop unplanned launches from their penthouse's windows. It is going to be nuts trying to keep track off all the potential players once this pops off. Putin/Shoigu/Gerisimov/Prigozhin/Kadyrov are the big names at this point. What other names are going to pop up over the next couple of years?

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Worth following this

 

 

 

It would seem to me that Ukraine would be wise to hit at one spot with a smallish crew, test defenses, pull Russian forces there, give the Russians confidence regarding their ability to successfully defend, then make their major push elsewhere.

But that's armchair, Heart of Iron style back seat driving for you. 

I just have the opinion that Ukraine has the capability of being a lot more flexible with their forces, especially with the new Western armored vehicles, than Russia does with their inept command and control. And as we all know, the biggest advantage for the attacker is the ability to choose time and place for the attack. Once that all in commitment has been made, you can't get that advantage back.

I really appreciate you posting this, @KYHorn. This does feel like the beginnings of what everyone has been waiting for. 

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35 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I just have the opinion that Ukraine has the capability of being a lot more flexible with their forces, especially with the new Western armored vehicles, than Russia does with their inept command and control. And as we all know, the biggest advantage for the attacker is the ability to choose time and place for the attack. Once that all in commitment has been made, you can't get that advantage back.

It's been 5 days and Russia can't push the Russians who invaded Russia out of Russia, and I have no doubt that a big part of it is driven by a pseudo-analysis paralysis of not being able to decide whether to pull troops out of Ukraine and back into Russia to secure Russian borders from being invaded by Russians. There would be nothing in their playbooks showing what to do under these circumstances.  And you know there's a point at which information is going into a vacuum because somebody doesn't want to upset somebody above them.

Edit: If we invaded Mexico for some reason, and a bunch of Mexicans invaded the US and started causing problems in Yuma or Tuscon, I feel confident that we'd have them surrounded in 3-5 hours.  If not dead.  Russia is having a serious air superiority crisis at this point if they can't even get attack aircraft or helicopters in there either destroying them, or at least using the choppers to ferry in troops.

3 days to Kyiv has turned into "5 days and we can't kick out the Russians who invaded Russia"

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Just a thought, but I wonder if the Ukrainians have a cyber attack up their sleeve as sort of a final shaping operation?  Imagine if the Russians, who are already largely in a state of disarray, suddenly didn't have coms, electrical power in western Russian, etc.  Talk about a complete fog, that would certainly be ideal to add to things.  I don't know if they have that sort of capability, but that'd be a nice touch.  

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