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36 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I've been wondering about the Russian aircraft numbers.  Graphic shows 266 as of now.   I assume these are mostly fighters and ground attack planes.  We know there were some larger planes lost but how many more planes does Russia have ?

That actually fly?  That have pilots to fly them?   I honestly think it can't be many. I know we've supplied Ukraine with pretty good air defense after the fact,  but in February Russia should have ended this thing in 3 days if they had anything resembling a functional air force. It's the the most baffling thing to me in all of this. 

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5 minutes ago, pops said:

That actually fly?  That have pilots to fly them?   I honestly think it can't be many. I know we've supplied Ukraine with pretty good air defense after the fact,  but in February Russia should have ended this thing in 3 days if they had anything resembling a functional air force. It's the the most baffling thing to me in all of this. 

It’s like the reserves people think they have still left in Ukraine - if they had them, they would have used them.  

I get not wanting to use them in an environment where every company-sized unit of soldiers is rocking MANPADS, but that didn’t exist on February 24th.

I get not using them against civilian infrastructure you would want to use later on when your 3-day special military operation concludes, but on February 24 there was a shitload of military targets that would have made the 3-day invasion easier.

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33 minutes ago, Viper said:

I'm not sure anyone knows that anymore. Partly because it seems like Russia taking over seems to have turned a lot of pro-Russian people against them. Along with anyone collaborating being arrested, killed, or running away to Russia.

Things didn't go well for the Tories after the American Revolution. I imagine it will be much the same.

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52 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Things didn't go well for the Tories after the American Revolution. I imagine it will be much the same.

My ggggggrandfather was charged by his Massachusetts town in July of 1776 with seizing all of the weapons of any Tories in the vicinity.   He did.   They mostly left town, being unarmed and hated.  

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

I've been wondering about the Russian aircraft numbers.  Graphic shows 266 as of now.   I assume these are mostly fighters and ground attack planes.  We know there were some larger planes lost but how many more planes does Russia have ?

Earlier in the war they lost a few transports and the attack on the base in Crimea included some Su-24 attack/bombers. It’s very hard to get a good estimate because we don’t know what’s airworthy and what isn’t. Assume all of Long Range Aviaton remains intact, most of their airlift, and they are now seriously grappling with ground attack/fighter losses. 

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41 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

China looking for an off ramp would be a legit death sentence for Putin.

Right now China is bleeding Russia dry of buying discounted raw materials and oil. Stop those transactions and what little foreign currency inflows will dwindle down to nothing. 
 

If China is no longer the forever comrade of Russia, you now have to shift troop to at least have some form of presence there as a deterrent. 
 

If China sees Russia no longer as a net benefit, they could easily  become “food” for the CCP machine.   China is already dealing with a lagging economy and some internal strife. What better way to fix your economy and redirect the ire of your population than to start a conflict. It was always a global concern that when China faltered they could turn their eyes on Taiwan, but the current conflict makes using Russian based design to engage western systems a questionable proposition.

Why not instead go for the natural resources of Russia which would both placate the internal issues as well as not be frowned upon by the rest of the global community.

 

All of the Russian political caste knows this and so does China. If China is looking to change course then the only hope is to get rid of Putin before they are, worse case, fighting on multiple fronts so far from each other there is no real way to conduct both engagements simultaneously and best case no longer have any foreign trade to keep the internal payoffs churning.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html?smid=tw-share 

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

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U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time for the attack that killed Daria Dugina and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Credit...Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Julian E. BarnesAdam GoldmanAdam Entous and Michael Schwirtz
Oct. 5, 2022Updated 1:29 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, an element of a covert campaign that U.S. officials fear could widen the conflict.

The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, officials said. American officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.

The closely held assessment of Ukrainian complicity, which has not been previously reported, was shared within the U.S. government last week. Ukraine denied involvement in the killing immediately after the attack, and senior officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment.

While Russia has not retaliated in a specific way for the assassination, the United States is concerned that such attacks — while high in symbolic value — have little direct impact on the battlefield and could provoke Moscow to carry out its own strikes against senior Ukrainian officials. American officials have been frustrated with Ukraine’s lack of transparency about its military and covert plans, especially on Russian soil.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s security services have demonstrated their ability to reach into Russia to conduct sabotage operations. The killing of Ms. Dugina, however, would be one of the boldest operations to date — showing Ukraine can get very close to prominent Russians.

 
 

In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.Credit...Investigative Committee Of Russia, via Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Some American officials suspect Ms. Dugina’s father, Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist, was the actual target of the operation, and that the operatives who carried it out believed he would be in the vehicle with his daughter.

Mr. Dugin, one of Russia’s most prominent voices urging Moscow to intensify its war on Ukraine, has been a leading proponent of an aggressive, imperialist Russia.

The American officials who spoke about the intelligence did not disclose which elements of the Ukrainian government were believed to have authorized the mission, who carried out the attack, or whether President Volodymyr Zelensky had signed off on the mission. United States officials briefed on the Ukrainian action and the American response spoke on the condition of anonymity, in order to discuss secret information and matters of sensitive diplomacy.

U.S. officials would not say who in the American government delivered the admonishments or whom in the Ukrainian government they were delivered to. It was not known what Ukraine’s response was.

While the Pentagon and spy agencies have shared sensitive battlefield intelligence with the Ukrainians, helping them zero in on Russian command posts, supply lines and other key targets, the Ukrainians have not always told American officials what they plan to do.

The United States has pressed Ukraine to share more about its war plans, with mixed success. Earlier in the war, U.S. officials acknowledged that they often knew more about Russian war plans — thanks to their intense collection efforts — than they did about Kyiv’s intentions.

Cooperation has since increased. During the summer, Ukraine shared its plans for its September military counteroffensive with the United States and Britain.

U.S. officials also lack a complete picture of the competing power centers within the Ukrainian government, including the military, the security services and Mr. Zelensky’s office, a fact that may explain why some parts of the Ukrainian government may not have been aware of the plot.

When asked about the U.S. intelligence assessment, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, reiterated the Ukrainian government’s denials of involvement in Ms. Dugina’s killing.

“Again, I’ll underline that any murder during wartime in some country or another must carry with it some kind of practical significance,” Mr. Podolyak told The New York Times in an interview on Tuesday. “It should fulfill some specific purpose, tactical or strategic. Someone like Dugina is not a tactical or a strategic target for Ukraine.

“We have other targets on the territory of Ukraine,” he said, “I mean collaborationists and representatives of the Russian command, who might have value for members of our special services working in this program, but certainly not Dugina.”

Though details surrounding acts of sabotage in Russian-controlled territory have been shrouded in mystery, the Ukrainian government has quietly acknowledged killing Russian officials in Ukraine and sabotaging Russian arms factories and weapons depots.

A senior Ukrainian military official who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the topic, said that Ukrainian forces, with the help of local fighters, had carried out assassinations and attacks on accused Ukrainian collaborators and Russian officials in occupied Ukrainian territories. These include the Kremlin-installed mayor of the Kherson region, who was poisoned in August and had to be evacuated to Moscow for emergency treatment.

Countries traditionally do not discuss other nations’ covert actions, for fear of having their own operations revealed, but some American officials believe it is crucial to curb what they see as dangerous adventurism, particularly political assassinations.

Still, American officials in recent days have taken pains to insist that relations between the two governments remain strong. U.S. concerns about Ukraine’s aggressive covert operations inside Russia have not prompted any known changes in the provision of intelligence, military and diplomatic support to Mr. Zelensky’s government or to Ukraine’s security services.

In a phone call on Saturday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, that the Biden administration “will continue to support Ukraine’s efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically,” according to Ned Price, the State Department’s spokesman.

Officials from the State Department, National Security Council, Pentagon and C.I.A. declined to comment on the intelligence assessment.

The war in Ukraine is at an especially dangerous moment. The United States has tried carefully to avoid unnecessary escalation with Moscow throughout the conflict — in part by telling Kyiv not to use American equipment or intelligence to conduct attacks inside of Russia. But now, the recent battlefield successes by Ukraine have prompted Russia to respond with a series of escalatory steps, like conducting a partial mobilization and moving to annex swathes of eastern Ukraine.

Concern is growing in Washington that Russia may be considering further steps to intensify the war, including by renewing efforts to assassinate prominent Ukrainian leaders. Mr. Zelensky would be the top target of Russian assassination teams, as he was during the Russian assault on Kyiv earlier in the war.

But now, American officials said Russia could target a wide variety of Ukrainian leaders, many of whom have less protection than Mr. Zelensky.

The United States and Europe had imposed sanctions on Ms. Dugina. She shared her father’s worldview and was accused by the West of spreading Russian propaganda about Ukraine.

Russia opened a murder investigation after Ms. Dugina’s assassination, calling the explosion that killed her a terrorist act. Ms. Dugina was killed instantly in the explosion, which occurred in the Odintsovo district, an affluent area in Moscow’s suburbs.

After the bombing, speculation centered on whether Ukraine was responsible or if it was a false flag operation meant to pin blame on Ukrainians. The bombing took place after a series of Ukrainian strikes in Crimea, part of Ukraine that Russia seized in 2014. Those strikes had led ultranationalists in Mr. Dugin’s circle to urge Mr. Putin to intensify the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the F.S.B., blamed Ms. Dugina’s murder on Ukraine’s intelligence services. In an announcement made a day after the attack, the F.S.B. said that Ukrainian operatives had contracted a Ukrainian woman, who entered Russia in July and rented an apartment where Ms. Dugina lived. The woman then fled Russia after the bombing, according to the F.S.B.

Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea, has claimed that a group made up of pro-Ukrainian and anti-Putin fighters operating in Russia known as the National Republican Army was responsible for the killing.

In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ponomarev claimed to be in contact with the National Republican Army and was aware of the operation against Ms. Dugina several hours before it occurred. Many officials in Washington have been skeptical of Mr. Ponomarev’s claims on behalf of the group.

 

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7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html?smid=tw-share 

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

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U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time for the attack that killed Daria Dugina and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Credit...Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Julian E. BarnesAdam GoldmanAdam Entous and Michael Schwirtz
Oct. 5, 2022Updated 1:29 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, an element of a covert campaign that U.S. officials fear could widen the conflict.

The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, officials said. American officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.

The closely held assessment of Ukrainian complicity, which has not been previously reported, was shared within the U.S. government last week. Ukraine denied involvement in the killing immediately after the attack, and senior officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment.

While Russia has not retaliated in a specific way for the assassination, the United States is concerned that such attacks — while high in symbolic value — have little direct impact on the battlefield and could provoke Moscow to carry out its own strikes against senior Ukrainian officials. American officials have been frustrated with Ukraine’s lack of transparency about its military and covert plans, especially on Russian soil.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s security services have demonstrated their ability to reach into Russia to conduct sabotage operations. The killing of Ms. Dugina, however, would be one of the boldest operations to date — showing Ukraine can get very close to prominent Russians.

 

In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.Credit...Investigative Committee Of Russia, via Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Some American officials suspect Ms. Dugina’s father, Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist, was the actual target of the operation, and that the operatives who carried it out believed he would be in the vehicle with his daughter.

Mr. Dugin, one of Russia’s most prominent voices urging Moscow to intensify its war on Ukraine, has been a leading proponent of an aggressive, imperialist Russia.

The American officials who spoke about the intelligence did not disclose which elements of the Ukrainian government were believed to have authorized the mission, who carried out the attack, or whether President Volodymyr Zelensky had signed off on the mission. United States officials briefed on the Ukrainian action and the American response spoke on the condition of anonymity, in order to discuss secret information and matters of sensitive diplomacy.

U.S. officials would not say who in the American government delivered the admonishments or whom in the Ukrainian government they were delivered to. It was not known what Ukraine’s response was.

While the Pentagon and spy agencies have shared sensitive battlefield intelligence with the Ukrainians, helping them zero in on Russian command posts, supply lines and other key targets, the Ukrainians have not always told American officials what they plan to do.

The United States has pressed Ukraine to share more about its war plans, with mixed success. Earlier in the war, U.S. officials acknowledged that they often knew more about Russian war plans — thanks to their intense collection efforts — than they did about Kyiv’s intentions.

Cooperation has since increased. During the summer, Ukraine shared its plans for its September military counteroffensive with the United States and Britain.

U.S. officials also lack a complete picture of the competing power centers within the Ukrainian government, including the military, the security services and Mr. Zelensky’s office, a fact that may explain why some parts of the Ukrainian government may not have been aware of the plot.

When asked about the U.S. intelligence assessment, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, reiterated the Ukrainian government’s denials of involvement in Ms. Dugina’s killing.

“Again, I’ll underline that any murder during wartime in some country or another must carry with it some kind of practical significance,” Mr. Podolyak told The New York Times in an interview on Tuesday. “It should fulfill some specific purpose, tactical or strategic. Someone like Dugina is not a tactical or a strategic target for Ukraine.

“We have other targets on the territory of Ukraine,” he said, “I mean collaborationists and representatives of the Russian command, who might have value for members of our special services working in this program, but certainly not Dugina.”

Though details surrounding acts of sabotage in Russian-controlled territory have been shrouded in mystery, the Ukrainian government has quietly acknowledged killing Russian officials in Ukraine and sabotaging Russian arms factories and weapons depots.

A senior Ukrainian military official who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the topic, said that Ukrainian forces, with the help of local fighters, had carried out assassinations and attacks on accused Ukrainian collaborators and Russian officials in occupied Ukrainian territories. These include the Kremlin-installed mayor of the Kherson region, who was poisoned in August and had to be evacuated to Moscow for emergency treatment.

Countries traditionally do not discuss other nations’ covert actions, for fear of having their own operations revealed, but some American officials believe it is crucial to curb what they see as dangerous adventurism, particularly political assassinations.

Still, American officials in recent days have taken pains to insist that relations between the two governments remain strong. U.S. concerns about Ukraine’s aggressive covert operations inside Russia have not prompted any known changes in the provision of intelligence, military and diplomatic support to Mr. Zelensky’s government or to Ukraine’s security services.

In a phone call on Saturday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, that the Biden administration “will continue to support Ukraine’s efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically,” according to Ned Price, the State Department’s spokesman.

Officials from the State Department, National Security Council, Pentagon and C.I.A. declined to comment on the intelligence assessment.

The war in Ukraine is at an especially dangerous moment. The United States has tried carefully to avoid unnecessary escalation with Moscow throughout the conflict — in part by telling Kyiv not to use American equipment or intelligence to conduct attacks inside of Russia. But now, the recent battlefield successes by Ukraine have prompted Russia to respond with a series of escalatory steps, like conducting a partial mobilization and moving to annex swathes of eastern Ukraine.

Concern is growing in Washington that Russia may be considering further steps to intensify the war, including by renewing efforts to assassinate prominent Ukrainian leaders. Mr. Zelensky would be the top target of Russian assassination teams, as he was during the Russian assault on Kyiv earlier in the war.

But now, American officials said Russia could target a wide variety of Ukrainian leaders, many of whom have less protection than Mr. Zelensky.

The United States and Europe had imposed sanctions on Ms. Dugina. She shared her father’s worldview and was accused by the West of spreading Russian propaganda about Ukraine.

Russia opened a murder investigation after Ms. Dugina’s assassination, calling the explosion that killed her a terrorist act. Ms. Dugina was killed instantly in the explosion, which occurred in the Odintsovo district, an affluent area in Moscow’s suburbs.

After the bombing, speculation centered on whether Ukraine was responsible or if it was a false flag operation meant to pin blame on Ukrainians. The bombing took place after a series of Ukrainian strikes in Crimea, part of Ukraine that Russia seized in 2014. Those strikes had led ultranationalists in Mr. Dugin’s circle to urge Mr. Putin to intensify the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the F.S.B., blamed Ms. Dugina’s murder on Ukraine’s intelligence services. In an announcement made a day after the attack, the F.S.B. said that Ukrainian operatives had contracted a Ukrainian woman, who entered Russia in July and rented an apartment where Ms. Dugina lived. The woman then fled Russia after the bombing, according to the F.S.B.

Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea, has claimed that a group made up of pro-Ukrainian and anti-Putin fighters operating in Russia known as the National Republican Army was responsible for the killing.

In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ponomarev claimed to be in contact with the National Republican Army and was aware of the operation against Ms. Dugina several hours before it occurred. Many officials in Washington have been skeptical of Mr. Ponomarev’s claims on behalf of the group.

 

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2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

They list the helicopters separately on the graphic.

I don't trust the aircraft losses reported by Ukraine. Those numbers have always looked grossly inflated. There were some artillery attacks on airfields (Crimea and the one in Chornobaivka which liked to get pounded in the ass more than a NowThis wet dream) which can account for some of those losses but having +500 losses for all air assets seems extremely optimistic.

Not that RU airforce hasn't been MIA for quite some time and has been probably the biggest surprise in those whole war. I've just chalked it up to Russia finally realizing that the risk/reward was not worth it once Ukraine started beefing up anti-air capabilities.

 

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2 minutes ago, dimyh said:

I don't trust the aircraft losses reported by Ukraine. Those numbers have always looked grossly inflated. There were some artillery attacks on airfields (Crimea and the one in Chornobaivka which liked to get pounded in the ass more than a NowThis wet dream) which can account for some of those losses but having +500 losses for all air assets seems extremely optimistic.

Not that RU airforce hasn't been MIA for quite some time and has been probably the biggest surprise in those whole war. I've just chalked it up to Russia finally realizing that the risk/reward was not worth it once Ukraine started beefing up anti-air capabilities.

 

And also that the majority of their airplanes are actually cardboard mockups sitting at airfields around the country, because the money to build the planes went to building General Ivanov's  numerous dachas in Crimea.

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17 minutes ago, Kwix said:

So an un-named official believes Ukraine was behind the assassination.  Seems like the sole purpose of that story is to try and drive a wedge between the US and Ukraine.

Was that unnamed official Maggie Haberman?

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3 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

This has the whiff of setting up Kadyrov to fail and making him a(n e)scapegoat.

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I love the dude coming out of the woods. Forward scouts are the best. 

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

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8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This has the whiff of setting up Kadyrov to fail and making him a(n e)scapegoat.

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

So you served with the French in 1941? I kid! 

Yeah, and also some comments are stating this was a training operation/PR. 

Concerning Kadyrov. If he fails fuck yeah! A victory for humanity. There are a few of us who think that fucker was instrumental in creating ISIS. 

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28 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

So - no Disney instructions on how to hang on to the turret for ‘Mr. Manpads Wild Ride’??

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

buncha potato farmers wearing adidas on their legs, trying to find rotate on a soviet tank.  this is not a worthy adversary.

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8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

So how long before Kadyrov falls from a tenth story window?

It kind of needs to be soon.  Because you can begin to see the outline of the warlord-ization of Russia.  Between Kadyrov and Prigozhin, you already have two sizable private armies in Russia that are probably as well-equipped and capable as the federal army.  For the moment, the Kadyrovites and Wagner remain loyal to Putin.  But that could change at any time (either because Putin is deposed or because Kadyrov/Prigozhin mutiny).  And if that happens, it's not at all clear to me how that would go.

It could very well be that you have something that looks like China from 1910 to 1949.  But with nuclear weapons.  And I don't think that's a particularly good thing.

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2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

So how long before Kadyrov falls from a tenth story window?

Like anyone could even know which story it will be.  The building might not even have 10 floors.

Edited by kevwun
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