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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

ha ha.  my blood is worth more than your blood

My blood lacks something that most have which makes it better for babies. They used to ask me to give blood all the time. But when I give blood I turn white as a ghost and get sick as shit, so I don't give anymore. Doctor recommends against it. Hope I don't get the 'rona and have people bugging me again when I recover.

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

need to photoshop some coronaviruses scaling the walls outside

let's wait until he gets stateside

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3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

big upside in this, at least we can possibly get the close talkers to back off a foot or 2.

spacer.png

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

My blood lacks something that most have which makes it better for babies. They used to ask me to give blood all the time. But when I give blood I turn white as a ghost and get sick as shit, so I don't give anymore. Doctor recommends against it. Hope I don't get the 'rona and have people bugging me again when I recover.

testosterone? 

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9 hours ago, NoName said:

how many CFOs in the system stroked out about 3 days into this? 

Ha, they’re sweating.  Kind of in their nature bc who the hell would blame them in the grand scheme?  They’re not done small pop and pop at risk of going belly up...

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From a medical FB group im in:

0bcd8f9158e9f47231690b1a1e32e931.jpg
caa7cf67936facd162cf8433fe2d148d.jpg
b6dbe05ea321adfd6a52a9525856c17f.jpg
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There’s a lot of big words in there. Now since I don’t understand them, I’m going to take it is a sign of disrespect

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

If we end up at 1/10th that estimate, we will be at 200k deaths.  Note that this does NOT take into account the massive strain on our hospitals and the much higher number of critical care patients.  Also, to compare, the highest death rate we've had from the flu in the past 40 years (and note, this number is very arguable, as many believe the CDC's numbers are high) is 80k in 2018.  So, 2.5X the flu at its worst.  If we get out of this with that, it would be a big win.

Here's a thought: folks postulating that EITHER we're going to have 10k a day dying, OR that this will be no worse than the flu, are full of shit.  Toss out the best-case willful Pollyanna numbers....toss out the worst-case "we're all gonna die" numbers.  What is left in the middle...is still really fucking bad.

You do realize you were in the ‘we’re all going to die’ numbers crowd right? Your estimate that you claimed to be conservative had a million US deaths within its parameters. 

Edited by akhornfan

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1 hour ago, jinx said:

May be the first time I saw a semi naked woman.  Thanks Tom Hanks!

Just now?!?

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If that happens you damn well know an undefeated plaque will go up on Pyle Field.
"Co-National Champions"

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You do realize you were in the ‘we’re all going to die’ numbers crowd right? Your estimate that you claimed to be conservative had a million US deaths within its parameters. 

Yes it did, you fucking dumbass.  Within its parameters.  A 7 figure number was the HIGH end.  Based on every assumption (from transmission rate to death rate to lack of mitigation measures) being on the high end.  That's why what I posted was a RANGE.  As we get better data, those numbers can be refined.  As we take mitigation measures, we can knock down that high end.

You really have no idea how, ummm, thinking, works, do you?

Edited by Brisketexan

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15 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


There’s a lot of big words in there. Now since I don’t understand them, I’m going to take it is a sign of disrespect

Aim high, Willis!

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

The thing is they don't all up and do it within a 3-6 week period of each other.  That's the issue here. Our medical system, and facilities could be swamped to the point of overload, and then failure.  Then you'll see a cascade effect of people dying from non Covid related illnesses, and pre existing conditions because they weren't able to get a bed, services, or see a doctor or nurse.

Edited by Onboard 2.0

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2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Glad someone backed me up hahah

Still the funniest two minutes of Kevin Hart's career.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

If we didn’t shelter in place the hospitals would be full and the death rate would be much much higher then the flu....  Not even close to the same thing to still be using the flu comparison....

Edited by Hook1997

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1 minute ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

Cancer patients and heart patients have never crashed a major city's entire hospital system.  This does.  That's a big fat difference right there.

Cancer and heart disease don't kill the medical professionals treating the patients.  This does.  Another big fat difference.

You are looking at today's numbers -- those aren't the numbers that matter.  It's not where we are.  It's where we are going.  Early on the afternoon of September 4, 2011, there were just two small fires that just sparked up near Bastrop State park.  Each one literally covered a few square yards at the beginning.  You are jumping up at 2:00 pm on 9/4/11 telling us "look at those tiny fires -- they're just a few feet wide, and all they've burned is a little grass!"

By September 6th, that tiny little pair of grass fires looked like this:

Bp1KQRwvKjNb5SEgBdd4golvOK93M1nPxoowuKM8

Do you really think that we're going to stay at 1,000 dead?  Do you really think we're not going to eclipse the typical annual flu death rate?  Do you really think that we're not ALREADY crashing hospitals in NYC and NOLA?

Come the fuck on.  You are entitled to your own opinion, but you aren't entitled to your own facts.

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10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes it did, you fucking dumbass.  Within its parameters.  A 7 figure number was the HIGH end.  Based on every assumption (from transmission rate to death rate to lack of mitigation measures) being on the high end.  That's why what I posted was a RANGE.  As we get better data, those numbers can be refined.  As we take mitigation measures, we can knock down that high end.

You really have no idea how, ummm, thinking, works, do you?

You can rant and rave all you want. But that you even put down a million as a possibility shows how much emotion you were letting into the situation versus how much you really understood it 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease.

lulz

"Over 20K die from the flu every year!!! THIS IS CRAZY!!!"

Numbers keep going up

"40K die from car accidents!!! WHAT ARE WE DOING?!?!?!?"

Numbers keep going up

"1.2M die from cancer and heart disease!!! WHY DON'T WE REACT LIKE THIS TO THAT?!?!?!"

Numbers keep going up

"Everyone who is born dies someday!!! WHY AREN'T WE MANDATING BIRTH CONTROL?!?!?"

Edited by Huckleberry

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Just now, akhornfan said:

You can rant and rave all you want. But that you even put down a million as a possibility shows how much emotion you were letting into the situation versus how much you really understood it 

It.  Fucking.  IS.  A possibility.  At the very least, it was, based on how we were NOT mitigating the spread at the time.

A brush fire spreading into my neighborhood absolutely has the potential to do $100 million in damage....if it's already wide when it gets here....and resources can't get to enough of it....and we've got a 30 mph wind pushing it.  These fires happen.

Bp1KQRwvKjNb5SEgBdd4golvOK93M1nPxoowuKM8

A typical grass fire in our hood won't do any damage.  So a range of expected damage for a brush fire in our hood is $0  to $100 million.  Give me some more data -- like a 30 mph windy day, and I'm taking that $0 out of the analysis, and my range will go from $500k-$100 million.  Etc. etc.

You know that actuaries actually perform these exact types of analyses, right?  And epidemiologists have as well?

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13 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

Are cancer and heart disease highly contagious?

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

It.  Fucking.  IS.  A possibility.  At the very least, it was, based on how we were NOT mitigating the spread at the time.

A brush fire spreading into my neighborhood absolutely has the potential to do $100 million in damage....if it's already wide when it gets here....and resources can't get to enough of it....and we've got a 30 mph wind pushing it.  These fires happen.

Bp1KQRwvKjNb5SEgBdd4golvOK93M1nPxoowuKM8

A typical grass fire in our hood won't do any damage.  So a range of expected damage for a brush fire in our hood is $0  to $100 million.  Give me some more data -- like a 30 mph windy day, and I'm taking that $0 out of the analysis, and my range will go from $500k-$100 million.  Etc. etc.

You know that actuaries actually perform these exact types of analyses, right?  And epidemiologists have as well?

You should go back a read what you wrote alongside that prediction. You were talking a very strong likelihood. Not a possibility. Essentially anything can be a possibility. 
 

But at the time you were so sure you were using the best available numbers, but were insisting on ignoring the evidence that there were far more cases. 
 

it’s not going to hit your numbers. We both know it, but now you’re going with name calling and something about a fire. Come on. 

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since this is much more contagious than swine I'm guessing as an estimate 100M to 125M will end up having had this in US.

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1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

You should go back a read what you wrote alongside that prediction. You were talking a very strong likelihood. Not a possibility. Essentially anything can be a possibility. 
 

But at the time you were so sure you were using the best available numbers, but were insisting on ignoring the evidence that there were far more cases. 
 

it’s not going to hit your numbers. We both know it, but now you’re going with name calling and something about a fire. Come on. 

What's your number?  What do you think our total number of deaths will be?  You throw a lot of darts, but don't have shit to offer.

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Posted (edited)

 

FullSizeRender-143.jpg

If there's one silver lining  to this Coronavirus shit, it's these ^^^.   I stumbled on 4 pallets in Costco last week.  Holy shit, we all know about crack sprinkled with crack sauce.........

Edited by Onboard 2.0

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Do you really think that we're going to stay at 1,000 dead? 

Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

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18 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

I think someone is missing the aim of the social distancing policy.  Without them, a tsunami of cases overwhelms the system.  And many more die than is necessary.  And we would be asking healthcare workers to work past their breaking point.   

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19 minutes ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

How in the FUCKING HELL are we still getting this kind of fucking stupid ass take here?

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

since this is much more contagious than swine I'm guessing as an estimate 100M to 125M will end up having had this in US.

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

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Posted (edited)

The supply chain being crippled on gloves, masks, hand sanitizer, disinfectant, and hand soaps isn’t great during a highly contagious pandemic.  Our front line medics can’t protect themselves right now which also means no one else can either, for a while at least.  

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

How in the FUCKING HELL are we still getting this kind of fucking stupid ass take here?

Where in the hell do you think you are, Loyal order of the MENSA,  chapter 657 ??

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The video of cellphones in Ft. Lauderdale and then their spread convinces me we should nuke pretty much the entire midwest and most of the NE.  We'd be better of in many ways.

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

maybe.  wish we had done this with swine.  12K people died

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The supply chain being crippled on gloves, masks, hand sanitizer, disinfectant, and hand soaps isn’t great during a highly contagious pandemic.  Our front lines can’t even protect themselves right now which also means no one else can either for a while.  

Well, at least those are a list of things that shouldn't be in short supply the next time a world wide pandemic breaks out.  Right ?  Hell we still keep our helium supply protected, just in case another dirigible heavy war breaks out.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

What's your number?  What do you think our total number of deaths will be?  You throw a lot of darts, but don't have shit to offer.

I have a pretty good feeling for what it’s NOT and have been calling bullshit on that when I see it. As in it’s not 3% CFR, it’s not 2%, it’s not 1.5%. It’s not whatever number we keep steeping down to as we see more cases. 
 

There just isn’t anywhere near enough data on total cases to put out an accurate prediction at this point. But there is enough, and has been for a while, to set some upward limits. And no offense, that’s where you missed - and I really think it was just emotional, which I understand. I bristled a bit at your comment about throwing out the high figures, because you were so recently right in that group. 
 

But if I had to take just a wild ass guess - I’d say under 100k US this calendar year.  

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15 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This

I think they call it the paradox of preparedness. Or something.

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

There aren’t going to be 64,000 dead by Easter. 

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11 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

How in the FUCKING HELL are we still getting this kind of fucking stupid ass take here?

It's kind of our signature thing.

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2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

There aren’t going to be 64,000 dead by Easter. 

And if there are, you'll just get a new screen name with a different hot take.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

If that’s your viewpoint you should participate in the corona challenge as long as you aren’t in NYC. Get in on the early fun and get it over with. 

Or hell- we could systematically infect people from easiest to cure to build up herd immunity. Do it on a schedule and then you are released back to life as it was before as a super human impervious to the corona. 

Obviously this is tongue in cheek but 1) the later you get it the more likely to have capacity (cranking out beds and equipment) and 2) even when we “open back up” there still won’t be huge crowds and gatherings Id bet. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn

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The video of cellphones in Ft. Lauderdale and then their spread convinces me we should nuke pretty much the entire midwest and most of the NE.  We'd be better of in many ways.

The hell did the Midwest do?

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