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Llano Estacado

Markets still falling like whoa

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On 6/26/2020 at 1:20 PM, Wally Fairway said:

ALT is better than most stonks, because there are option - so rather than by a a couple of hundred shares you can take that same money and buy options on a few thousands shares. More risk, more reward (or complete loss - but we don't talk about that)

ALT has been volatile since mid-May which makes it a stonk for options players. Today's share price ranged from 9.66 - 12.74...a 24% swing.  Get on the right side of the trade and you can bank some serious coin muy rapido.  Having said that, I made a vow of options abstinence after getting my ass handed to me repeated times.  A man's got to know his limitations.

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Yep. Should have dumped two weeks ago.  Are you dumping now?
I am. Knew $150 was the number to sell at, but 130 is better than 110.

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4 minutes ago, SuperSport said:

Money printer woke up early this morning, Futures climbing like whoa.

Pfizer with vaccine news + positive jobs news driving that. 

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Posted (edited)

When reached for comment, Fed Chair Milo Minderbinder said, “ it all goes to the syndicate, and everybody has a share.”

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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The ability of this market to ignore all of the bad to focus on the upside is incredible. Unemployment may be bouncing back, but stocks are as high as they were when the bottom and unemployment is still wayyyy down. 

I just don't understand what underlying metric/index is supporting the uncontrolled exuberance in the markets. Brrrrt is a hell of a drug, I guess

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

The ability of this market to ignore all of the bad to focus on the upside is incredible. Unemployment may be bouncing back, but stocks are as high as they were when the bottom and unemployment is still wayyyy down. 

I just don't understand what underlying metric/index is supporting the uncontrolled exuberance in the markets. Brrrrt is a hell of a drug, I guess

 

Moral hazard has been eliminated by the fed. The fed has tacitly become the FDIC for stocks and bonds.

If there's no downside risk, then why would people not just throw all their money into the stock market?

Add this to no fee-trades and an army of Robin Hood's merry men, Redditers, and their fearless leader Dave Portnoy.

It's a brew that looks, smells, and tastes like a house of cards ... but as others have stated: TINA.

We've entered a post-fact world and the market is acting accordingly.

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About time Pfizer got on the vaccine news pump and dump wagon

fuckers had been down 13% since I bought end of May. 

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25 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

About time Pfizer got on the vaccine news pump and dump wagon

fuckers had been down 13% since I bought end of May. 

Wasn't enough to save my PFE 40 07/17/20 calls that I bought back in May, looks like. Their breast cancer treatment news sank me and took all the pop out of the vaccine news.

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Lulz. Estimated 1.4 Bil vehicles on the road. Assuming 1:1 replacement and that Tesla continues to hit targets and churn out 100k units / qtr only 14,000 qtrs to go!

Aside from the apples oranges comparison of XOM to a vehicle/battery/technology manufacturer, 1 has a PE of 10.3 the other is somewhere around ~250. Without googling the car makers on the chart I’m guessing they’re all 5-25 range for PE ratios.

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With all of the tech unicorns, Tesla price, etc it sure is starting to look like 2000 again on that part of the market.

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15 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 


Lulz. Estimated 1.4 Bil vehicles on the road. Assuming 1:1 replacement and that Tesla continues to hit targets and churn out 100k units / qtr only 14,000 qtrs to go!

Aside from the apples oranges comparison of XOM to a vehicle/battery/technology manufacturer, 1 has a PE of 10.3 the other is somewhere around ~250. Without googling the car makers on the chart I’m guessing they’re all 5-25 range for PE ratios.

 

TSLA has no "E". They fuck around with their accounting more than most companies and also have the "lever" of selling carbon credits which netted them close to $600 million in revenue last year. They haven't proven they can turn a profit, and they certainly don't possess some great margin advantage in a business where margins are somewhat capped by material costs.

image.thumb.png.459b3f1e7ba2f0ee60c9a05d600c5d06.png

Meanwhile GM sitting with a market cap of $36 billion 

image.thumb.png.51016a648d2153c90491a0a45cea4238.png

TSLA might as well have a market cap of $10 trillion at this point, it would make about as much sense. And thats why I won't fuck around shorting or buying puts, because the market has proven it just doesn't give a fuck when it comes to TSLA.  

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1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

I'd say that moral hazard is being encouraged by the Fed.

Sorry.

You are correct.

They are encouraging it and I meant to say as much.

I'm a dumb.

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Posted (edited)

Oh and 'All hail NASDAQ.'

Stocks only go up, but the NASDAQ is working w/ rocket boosters.

Can't lose!

Capital B, Capital R, Capital T... BBBBBRRRRRTTTTTTTTTT

Edited by Dnaguy

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Sorry.

You are correct.

They are encouraging it and I meant to say as much.

I'm a dumb.

Well there are some who really believe what you said the first way. We may trigger some responses from them later.

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3 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

About time Pfizer got on the vaccine news pump and dump wagon

fuckers had been down 13% since I bought end of May. 

They released some phase1/2 data and it's all cnbc can talk about.  Well, that and Telsa.  What a fucking joke. 

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GameStop short interest is now 109.65% of float. There are more shares lent than there are actual shares of the company. People made fun of Michael Burry for buying 3% of the outstanding shares back in September, but a massive short squeeze would make him a two time investing genius.

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

TSLA might as well have a market cap of $10 trillion at this point, it would make about as much sense. And thats why I won't fuck around shorting or buying puts, because the market has proven it just doesn't give a fuck when it comes to TSLA.  

I made some good money shorting TSLA at certain price points, and buying it at others.  I am touching that fucking stock right now though. 

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4 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Well there are some who really believe what you said the first way. We may trigger some responses from them later.

What's the argument?

Per the dictionary:

Moral hazard (n):

lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences

Isn't that exactly what happens when the fed

  • Directly buys ETF's
  • Directly buys municipal bonds
  • Directly buys corporate bonds
  • Directly buys stocks 
  • Directly loans to businesses
  • Does this in an election year (they aren't going to stop and make it look like they're trying to help the 'other guy')
  • Continues to do it even when the market is at levels at all time highs (NASDAQ) or at levels it was at a year ago (DOW)

Again, the tacit acceptance that the Fed is going to bail us out of any event from now on is a crazy thought.

It's literally like driving 100 mph down the road with no brakes and relying on your driver to get you out of any jam... an upcoming wreck, road debris, a jaywalker, etc.

Hell yeah you're going to make great time if / when you get there, but damn if it ain't a stupid and reckless way to do it. 

But I guess we all need to get to our destination (retirement) and there's really no other mode of transportation left (in this analogy our horse is dead or something and we can't walk?).

We've allowed our car's brakes to wither away or in some cases, we've actively removed them.

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21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I made some good money shorting TSLA at certain price points, and buying it at others.  I am touching that fucking stock right now though. 

 

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

*not touching

200.gif

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2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:


With all of the tech unicorns, Tesla price, etc it sure is starting to look like 2000 again on that part of the market.

SQ Ath today. 

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

TSLA has no "E". They fuck around with their accounting more than most companies and also have the "lever" of selling carbon credits which netted them close to $600 million in revenue last year. They haven't proven they can turn a profit, and they certainly don't possess some great margin advantage in a business where margins are somewhat capped by material costs.

image.thumb.png.459b3f1e7ba2f0ee60c9a05d600c5d06.png

Meanwhile GM sitting with a market cap of $36 billion 

image.thumb.png.51016a648d2153c90491a0a45cea4238.png

TSLA might as well have a market cap of $10 trillion at this point, it would make about as much sense. And thats why I won't fuck around shorting or buying puts, because the market has proven it just doesn't give a fuck when it comes to TSLA.  

AMZN got away with it (prior to AWS) for 20 years so no reason TSLA can't.

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$ROKU going gangbusters today. Up almost 11% on the day.

Are there really that many Pelaton users?

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50 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

What's the argument?

Per the dictionary:

Moral hazard (n):

lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences

Isn't that exactly what happens when the fed

  • Directly buys ETF's
  • Directly buys municipal bonds
  • Directly buys corporate bonds
  • Directly buys stocks 
  • Directly loans to businesses
  • Does this in an election year (they aren't going to stop and make it look like they're trying to help the 'other guy')
  • Continues to do it even when the market is at levels at all time highs (NASDAQ) or at levels it was at a year ago (DOW)

Again, the tacit acceptance that the Fed is going to bail us out of any event from now on is a crazy thought.

It's literally like driving 100 mph down the road with no brakes and relying on your driver to get you out of any jam... an upcoming wreck, road debris, a jaywalker, etc.

Hell yeah you're going to make great time if / when you get there, but damn if it ain't a stupid and reckless way to do it. 

But I guess we all need to get to our destination (retirement) and there's really no other mode of transportation left (in this analogy our horse is dead or something and we can't walk?).

We've allowed our car's brakes to wither away or in some cases, we've actively removed them.

Preaching to the choir here.  Don't forget about all the banking industry regulations that have been suspended or relaxed by the Fed in the past 4 months.

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6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

AMZN got away with it (prior to AWS) for 20 years so no reason TSLA can't.

 AMZN went public in mid 97 and showed a profit in FY 02. AMZN's market cap didnt cross $200B until 2015,  when it posted a profit of $8 billion. 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 AMZN went public in mid 97 and showed a profit in FY 02. AMZN's market cap didnt cross $200B until 2015,  when it posted a profit of $8 billion. 

 

 

And its TTM EPS was something like a buck fifty when it had that $200B market cap.  P/E was between 500 and 1,100 around that same time.

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Fun with Fake Money Futures Revisited:

Using my fake money account I bought, bought and bought some more /NQ throughout the day Friday.  Wound up with six contracts and had a loss of $32,000 by the close last Friday so that was nice.  Diamond hands that bitch to the release of the jobs report and turned the $32,000 loss into a $60,000 gain.

The lesson:  Buy dips, let JPOW make stocks go up, cash in for big dick gains.

Filling out my application for futures trading privileges on TDA right now.

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mang, i really was planning on buying tesla calls YESTERDAY

 

whoops

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