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Time to be ruthless. NY and Illinois and possibly California need to ensure these advantages are done to offset what the GOP will do in Texas/Florida/NC

 

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So is this the gameday analysis handicapping and horse race thread, or is this the fever dreams of Democratic supremacy and 100% kool aid drinking circle jerk thread?  Asking for a friend.  I'm good with either way- I just want a clear answer so I can behave accordingly inside this thread. 

 

My initial suspicion is I'd set the line at GOP with a 10 seat pick up and work an over under from there.  I'm open to hearing any other thoughts on the subject.  I'd have set the O/U in the mid 20's if the Dems didn't just have a really bad house election considering they won the presidential by 4 or 5 points, so my suspicion is the GOP picked all the lowest hanging fruit and there are fewer inroads to make than in a typical midterm election.  

If it's the Democratic Supremacy thread I will fuck right off and apologize for trying to do analysis on this. 

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So is this the gameday analysis handicapping and horse race thread, or is this the fever dreams of Democratic supremacy and 100% kool aid drinking circle jerk thread?  Asking for a friend.  I'm good with either way- I just want a clear answer so I can behave accordingly inside this thread. 

 

My initial suspicion is I'd set the line at GOP with a 10 seat pick up and work an over under from there.  I'm open to hearing any other thoughts on the subject.  I'd have set the O/U in the mid 20's if the Dems didn't just have a really bad house election considering they won the presidential by 4 or 5 points, so my suspicion is the GOP picked all the lowest hanging fruit and there are fewer inroads to make than in a typical midterm election.  

If it's the Democratic Supremacy thread I will fuck right off and apologize for trying to do analysis on this. 

Census Bureau says the won’t get state proportion numbers out until April and block by block numbers out until June/July. We won’t know the new maps for a while - timing will also complicate states with part time legislatures who will already be out of session (Texas) or states with hard deadlines that will end up drawn by courts (Minnesota). 

We’ll be speculating for a while on who is gaining/losing and then the actual map drawing. And court battles. 

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On 1/27/2021 at 4:46 PM, Js1 said:

Time to be ruthless. NY and Illinois and possibly California need to ensure these advantages are done to offset what the GOP will do in Texas/Florida/NC

 

Please please do it.  Stefanik is the worst congresswomen ever.  She’s somehow a millennial, but she acts and votes like a standard 70 year old gop white male.

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Whoever runs for this seat in a special election (sometime in the early summer, so vacant until then) won't even know what the district would look like in November 2022 when they run again.

2016: Trump +10.2

2020: Trump +3

2018: Wright +7.7

2020: Wright +9

However, a special election in Texas.... we know how it'll go. 

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ALSO - let's go ahead and get ready for TX-06 to be the GA-06 of 2021

  • First major test in a swing House district 6 months after a new POTUS is sworn in
  • High Hispanic numbers (22.7%) so good barometer to see if the Dems have still lost ground or if that was a Trump phenomenon (like the suburbs in 2017)
  • A district slowly drifting towards the Democrats
  • GA-06 PVI: R+8; TX-06 PVI R+9 (2016 numbers)
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On 1/27/2021 at 6:53 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

So is this the gameday analysis handicapping and horse race thread, or is this the fever dreams of Democratic supremacy and 100% kool aid drinking circle jerk thread?  Asking for a friend.  I'm good with either way- I just want a clear answer so I can behave accordingly inside this thread. 

 

My initial suspicion is I'd set the line at GOP with a 10 seat pick up and work an over under from there.  I'm open to hearing any other thoughts on the subject.  I'd have set the O/U in the mid 20's if the Dems didn't just have a really bad house election considering they won the presidential by 4 or 5 points, so my suspicion is the GOP picked all the lowest hanging fruit and there are fewer inroads to make than in a typical midterm election.  

If it's the Democratic Supremacy thread I will fuck right off and apologize for trying to do analysis on this. 

Midterms often have an anti-President swing. However, Trump may have changed that. Trump voters dont show up when he isn't on the ballot.  Also, he will still be energizing Democratic voters in 2022 so they may turn out again just like in 2018.  I think it will be 2026 before Trump's presence or lack thereof isn't hugely influential on the election.  Unless he runs in 2024, in which case he will keep a stranglehold on your party unti 2030.

And as you said, the GOP already picked up most of the available districts. So it may really just come down to gerrymandering. Dems need to stop playing fair in their states until the GOP is ready to start playing fair in theirs. 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Whoever runs for this seat in a special election (sometime in the early summer, so vacant until then) won't even know what the district would look like in November 2022 when they run again.

2016: Trump +10.2

2020: Trump +3

2018: Wright +7.7

2020: Wright +9

However, a special election in Texas.... we know how it'll go. 

 

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Many Republicans may wait to see if Wright’s wife, Susan, decides to run for the seat. The list of other potential GOP contenders could be long, ranging from Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams to state Rep. David Cook to Tarrant County Sheriff Bill Waybourn.

”There will be all kinds of local Republicans who are going to look at it,” Barton said.

But for now, lawmakers and others are remembering Wright.

They are remembering him in public but I can guarantee they are jockeying for position in private.

Smokey Joe Barton's old district. 

Edited by cactusflinthead
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Rep. Boebert (Crazy-CO) has her third challenger now  - Kerry Donovan (state senator-Vail/Wolcott) is a mainstream centrist Democrat closely aligned with moderate Democratic US Senator John Hickenlooper.

Donovan to visit Salida | Free Content | themountainmail.com

Donovan was re-elected to her second term in the Colorado Senate in 2018. She's a rancher whose family has been part of Eagle County for decades. She chairs the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee and was chosen as President Pro tem of the Colorado Senate in November. She's married to Shad Murib, the state director for Democratic U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper.

Immediately, the Colorado GOP labeled her a hippie gun confiscator:

The Colorado GOP, in a statement Wednesday afternoon, said "Kerry Donovan is simply a knockoff version of Elizabeth Warren, the candidate she endorsed for president. Donovan's support for Warren and her far-left policies would guarantee that hardworking families would see their taxes increase and ensure the Democrat's anti-energy, job destroying Green New Deal would finally become law.

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/legislature/state-sen-kerry-donovan-jumps-into-cd3-race-to-challenge-boebert-in-2022/article_acd157d2-665e-11eb-97b3-1f9a052c5fdf.html

Edited by washparkhorn
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While I am glad people are already announcing, it seems fruitless until they see the new Congressional lines.  You don't have to live in the district you want to represent, but it's such an easy attack line. 

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WELP - looks like we may not get the block-by-block census data until SEPTEMBER.

This REALLY fucks up redistricting.  The courts are going to draw a lot of maps. 

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Also, he will still be energizing Democratic voters in 2022

I’m not sure I buy that at this point. The world is going to look a lot different in November 2022 than in November 2020. America has a very short attention span.

The only reason anyone talks about Trump now is the impeachment trial. It’s honestly incredible the difference not having Twitter made, even when he was President. Night and day. He’ll be largely forgotten then. Maybe dead. The challenge Democrats face is keeping educated suburban voters in the fold while also getting continued strong turnout from black voters and getting margins with Latino voters like they were pre-Trump 2020. On the one hand, letting people in the tent is easier than getting them there in the first place, and some of these educated white voters well in fact hold an extreme, generational anti-GOP grudge because of Trump. Some won’t though. Some will buy the GOP whining about the deficit and election integrity and blah blah blah and go home. That’s a high propensity bloc in midterms too, so holding them likely means expanding the majority, losing ground means losing it.
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40 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I’m not sure I buy that at this point. The world is going to look a lot different in November 2022 than in November 2020. America has a very short attention span.

The only reason anyone talks about Trump now is the impeachment trial. It’s honestly incredible the difference not having Twitter made, even when he was President. Night and day. He’ll be largely forgotten then. Maybe dead. The challenge Democrats face is keeping educated suburban voters in the fold while also getting continued strong turnout from black voters and getting margins with Latino voters like they were pre-Trump 2020. On the one hand, letting people in the tent is easier than getting them there in the first place, and some of these educated white voters well in fact hold an extreme, generational anti-GOP grudge because of Trump. Some won’t though. Some will buy the GOP whining about the deficit and election integrity and blah blah blah and go home. That’s a high propensity bloc in midterms too, so holding them likely means expanding the majority, losing ground means losing it.

I think that's the critical component.  And I think it all depends on how well Biden does over the next 21 months.  

If Covid is largely under control by this Fall and the economy is back up and running in Fall 2022, then I think it entirely possible that the Democrats actually gain seats in the House.

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I think that's the critical component.  And I think it all depends on how well Biden does over the next 21 months.  
If Covid is largely under control by this Fall and the economy is back up and running in Fall 2022, then I think it entirely possible that the Democrats actually gain seats in the House.

It’s possible. Even logical. Once you vote Democratic once or twice in the Trump era it’s a lot easier to keep doing it if things are on the up and up and the news doesn’t make you face palm every day.

But the fake deficit concern, racial dog whistles, destroy your suburbs with socialism nonsense will be out in full force. I’m not sure I trust that demographic not to go back to what drove their political beliefs for a generation when it’s not packaged in Trump. A lot of this depends on whether or not the GOP continues as full MAGA/Q.
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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


It’s possible. Even logical. Once you vote Democratic once or twice in the Trump era it’s a lot easier to keep doing it if things are on the up and up and the news doesn’t make you face palm every day.

But the fake deficit concern, racial dog whistles, destroy your suburbs with socialism nonsense will be out in full force. I’m not sure I trust that demographic not to go back to what drove their political beliefs for a generation when it’s not packaged in Trump. A lot of this depends on whether or not the GOP continues as full MAGA/Q.

As I think we saw over the last four years, it's a lot easier to coordinate and communicate your message when you have the White House.  That's how the Trumpublicans were so effective at equating every Democrat with AOC and running the "socialism" nonsense.

I don't think the "socialism" thing works as well if have a robust economic recovery in 2022 that was fueled by a stimulus bill that had 70% approval.

In the meantime, you better believe that the Democrats are going to be equating every Trumpublican with Marjorie Qanon Greene.  And that's going to stick, because a whole lot of them voted not to take away her committee assignments.

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:


I’m not sure I buy that at this point. The world is going to look a lot different in November 2022 than in November 2020. America has a very short attention span.

The only reason anyone talks about Trump now is the impeachment trial. It’s honestly incredible the difference not having Twitter made, even when he was President. Night and day. He’ll be largely forgotten then. Maybe dead. The challenge Democrats face is keeping educated suburban voters in the fold while also getting continued strong turnout from black voters and getting margins with Latino voters like they were pre-Trump 2020. On the one hand, letting people in the tent is easier than getting them there in the first place, and some of these educated white voters well in fact hold an extreme, generational anti-GOP grudge because of Trump. Some won’t though. Some will buy the GOP whining about the deficit and election integrity and blah blah blah and go home. That’s a high propensity bloc in midterms too, so holding them likely means expanding the majority, losing ground means losing it.

Agree on Twitter. It's shocking how much the bans quieted down everything. 

But Trump will still be around and trying to profit off his base in 2022.  He is just waiting for the impeachment to end and trying to figure out a post twitter move. He will absolutely be noisy again. 

Forgotten or dead is wishful thinking. He is gonna be around for 8 or 9 hundred more years. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/12/2021 at 1:18 PM, gmr548 said:


I’m not sure I buy that at this point. The world is going to look a lot different in November 2022 than in November 2020. America has a very short attention span.

The only reason anyone talks about Trump now is the impeachment trial. It’s honestly incredible the difference not having Twitter made, even when he was President. Night and day. He’ll be largely forgotten then. Maybe dead. The challenge Democrats face is keeping educated suburban voters in the fold while also getting continued strong turnout from black voters and getting margins with Latino voters like they were pre-Trump 2020. On the one hand, letting people in the tent is easier than getting them there in the first place, and some of these educated white voters well in fact hold an extreme, generational anti-GOP grudge because of Trump. Some won’t though. Some will buy the GOP whining about the deficit and election integrity and blah blah blah and go home. That’s a high propensity bloc in midterms too, so holding them likely means expanding the majority, losing ground means losing it.

This would normally be my take as well, but I could easily see Democratic voters staying energized for the foreseeable future. Even if Donald disappears, his minions are still running around causing chaos. If covid is under control and the economy has bounced back, I could see many voters not giving a damn between a Dem candidate and a Rockefeller Republican, but those don't exist anymore. 

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On 1/27/2021 at 7:05 PM, Js1 said:

Census Bureau says the won’t get state proportion numbers out until April and block by block numbers out until June/July. We won’t know the new maps for a while - timing will also complicate states with part time legislatures who will already be out of session (Texas) or states with hard deadlines that will end up drawn by courts (Minnesota). 

We’ll be speculating for a while on who is gaining/losing and then the actual map drawing. And court battles. 

This.  They are going to be fighting about district lines pretty much right up until the vote.

 

People also underestimate how much the Dems suffered by not knocking doors.  It probably cost them at least a half dozen seats due to not getting some of their low propensity voters out.

Edited by Bateshorn
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On 2/12/2021 at 3:16 PM, gmr548 said:


It’s possible. Even logical. Once you vote Democratic once or twice in the Trump era it’s a lot easier to keep doing it if things are on the up and up and the news doesn’t make you face palm every day.

But the fake deficit concern, racial dog whistles, destroy your suburbs with socialism nonsense will be out in full force. I’m not sure I trust that demographic not to go back to what drove their political beliefs for a generation when it’s not packaged in Trump. A lot of this depends on whether or not the GOP continues as full MAGA/Q.

It would help if they put off gun legislation to after the midterms

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23 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

How much are we thinking the Trump family will demand for endorsements in 2022? The bulk will come in primaries, so that will be closer than we think since it’s a year round grift.

Whatever they charge, they will be underselling themselves. Republicans will pay them any amount without limit. They gave them access to the treasury pretty much unchecked for the last four years and tried to give them the whole country only a month ago. 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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An interesting potential outcome in Minnesota if no maps can get done by next February: a statewide battle royal.

 

No doubt wishful thinking, as the courts have drawn every Congress and Legislature map since 1960. But it's a fun what-if.

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9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I mean, I’m no mathematician nor an economist but just hear me out.

Maybe if we raised the minimum wage to an actual living wage PEOPLE COULD SURVIVE WITH ONE JOB INSTEAD OF THREE!
 

Torbush

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20 hours ago, Js1 said:

I can’t believe we keep losing TX-23. Anyone but Gina Ortiz Jones this time. 

It’s because we need to run a Hispanic. Preferably with a Z at the end of their name. 
 

do that and we win, but the district is about to get redrawn anyway.

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  • 1 month later...
4 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Somebody reassure me please that there is no chance the dems lose the House next year.

 

No one can say that 19 months out. Especially bc no new maps have been drawn. 

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Posted (edited)

OH-15 Steve Stivers is resigning early to run the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.  Just knocks the House GOP down a vote, which is not the worst thing, as there's still quite a few vacancies on both sides (NM-01, FL-20, OH-11, TX-6, LA-2).  

He was seen as a potential OH-SEN candidate.  At a minimum, his R+7 seat likely would have been made redder by the OH lege and he would easily win re-election.

Just another House GOPer leaving, which does not bode well for how they internally see their prospects of winning back the House.  They do seem unhappy with how successful Biden has been and their inability to negatively define him or his priorities.  They famously declared that the COVID stimulus relief bill would become more unpopular over time (like 2009) but that has not come to fruition at all. 

Edited by Js1
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