David Epstein, author of Range, has an interesting blog I follow and I like it because it's short. He brought up a good point about Replacement Theory in his latest, I'll copy and paste it below. Worth a read:
Replacement theory is a fear-stoking ideology. I’m not particularly interested in discussing that claim further.
But I do wonder if an actual understanding of demographics might make it harder for one to be radicalized around this particular “theory.”
At the end of this sentence, please stop reading for a moment and estimate the percentage of the U.S. population that is composed of Muslims. Take at least a few seconds to think…
Seriously, just guess; nobody’s grading you.
Let’s say you meant to make the three-hour drive from New York City to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (to check out the incredible Midtown Scholar Bookstore, naturally) and overshot by that magnitude, going 17 times the actual distance. You’d end up in Los Angeles.
While we’re at it, what percentage of the American population is Black? Jewish? Make a guess! Again, you’re not getting graded, and according to a psychological finding known as the “generation effect,” you’ll better retain the correct information if you struggle to come up with your own answer first.
Answers:
I think people's awareness of the numerical context of their world has a major impact on, for example, what they’re afraid of, and how they view inequality. I’ve been in rooms of 0.1-percenters who talk about the 1% as if they’re someone else.
On that note, the Ipsos study asked: “What percentage of total household wealth do you think the least wealthy 70% own?”
Morning Brew (probably my favorite newsletter, alongside Eric Barker’s Barking Up the Wrong Tree) noted that replacement theory, “once a far-right fringe concept…has been increasingly cited on cable news.”
According to a poll conducted in December by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, one in three American adults “believes an effort is underway to replace U.S.-born Americans with immigrants for electoral gains.”
If there is such a plot afoot, it’s not going so well. According to data from the Census Bureau, immigrants make up a smaller percentage of the American population than they did in the late 19th century.
Our values around not killing people obviously shouldn’t depend on how prevalent those people are. At the same time, I can’t help but wonder if these killers would be more resistant to radicalization if, while spelunking the internet, they became as curious about the numbers around them as they are about finding reasons to hate people.
I think we should all strive to develop number sense for our world, especially because it’s so easy now to find basic data with a few seconds of search. Perhaps familiarizing young people with the numbers around them would also be a great thing to do in school, year after year.
If you’re interested in improving your number sense, just spend a few minutes searching for a relevant number next time a news story intrigues you. Or just peruse the best website on the internet, Our World in Data.
No need to be perfect with your number sense, but I think there is an urgent need to be curious.