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2020 astros offseason


elfenix

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11 hours ago, runthebone said:

Biggio's HoF plaque should say: 1997 162 games, 0 GIDP

I remember that part of that season. I remember watching the last week of the season and when Biggio was up with a runner on 1st and fewer than 2 outs the only thing I cared about was no GIDP because the division was locked up.

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Olney has yet another piece on ESPN about how the Astros' players haven't been appropriately contrite. (I used to like this guy, but holy hell he's had a hardon for the Astros pretty much ever since Lunhow et al took over. He's incessantly whined about how they "tanked" and, even though this was neither a new strategy nor specific to the Astros, he continues to use them as the example of tanking and everything that's wrong with it.)

He starts by sharing a few anecdotes of players around the league expressing discontent on social media. Then he makes a sloppy comparison to some poker movie I've never seen. Then he gets to rehash his last decade of sanctimonious whining about everything the Astros do:

Spoiler

For four years, they tanked to a degree that altered the trajectory of the sport. They ignored the revolting truth behind Roberto Osuna 's suspension under the domestic violence policy to capitalize on his trade value, when no other team was willing to go that far, and the front office was indignant when anyone questioned the choice. (Hello, Brandon Taubman.) And the Astros apparently took the sign stealing to the next level.

But what I really don't understand - and it's not just this titty-baby Olney, Kershaw and others have commented on this - is that idea that "nobody has said he is sorry" yet and how this is somehow a big problem:

Spoiler

Not just with the media, but with the many, many opponents who clearly feel the Astros have robbed them of something they can never get back. And they want Houston players to answer for it, or at least feel badly about it...Houston owner Jim Crane has indicated that the Astros players will apologize in spring training, together. Some words of advice to the Astros players: Follow Keuchel's example and talk before you get to camp. Find a camera as soon as possible, talk about what happened, express your feelings about your actions. If you wait until the start of spring training, it'll look like you were dragged along as part of a chain gang, like a bunch of students forced to stay after class and write your name on a chalkboard 100 times. And if you're going to apologize, you'd rather be first in line, not last.

What? Does anyone really give a shit if these guys come out and say "I'm sorry"? Who cares? In't it obvious that everyone just wants player apologies so that they can take that as a tacit concession that their accomplishments are illegitimate? Fuck that. If there is an apology, as Crane indicated, at this point I hope it is accompanied by a caveat that it is nothing more than a slight variation of what teams have been doing for literally 100 years and that if anyone really thinks it made that much difference, then they're simply believing what they want to believe. 

Anyway, this demand for contrition and apology is weird. Would everyone just shut the fuck up about it and forget it happened if Bregman said "sorry"? Of course not. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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looking ahead, they damn well better make hay this year because the next 5-7 is likely going to suck, and the man who could have actually navigate the hurdles was, IMO, wrongfully fired.  They're going to have to replace Springer, Correa, Verlander, Brantley, Reddick, Gurriel, and Grienke all in the next 2 seasons while having no first or second round picks the next two years.  They will be forced to trade correa this season or next, or receive nothing for him.  they won't even get the compensatory pick when he leaves via free agency as that was also included as part of their punishment.  And you wonder why they have been unable to hire a GM.  Nobody wants to take on that challenge.  Nobody.  

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18 minutes ago, pepper brooks said:

looking ahead, they damn well better make hay this year because the next 5-7 is likely going to suck, and the man who could have actually navigate the hurdles was, IMO, wrongfully fired.  They're going to have to replace Springer, Correa, Verlander, Brantley, Reddick, Gurriel, and Grienke all in the next 2 seasons while having no first or second round picks the next two years.  They will be forced to trade correa this season or next, or receive nothing for him.  they won't even get the compensatory pick when he leaves via free agency as that was also included as part of their punishment.  And you wonder why they have been unable to hire a GM.  Nobody wants to take on that challenge.  Nobody.  

They did not lose the ability to add comp picks for rejected QO’s.  Their first pick this year will be the comp pick they received for Cole.  If they don’t Re-sign Springer or Correa they will get picks for them (assuming the new CBA stays the same in that regard).  Brantley, Verlander, Greinke, and McCullers all may also warrant QO’s as they reach free agency the next 2 seasons.

Yes, the draft pick penalties hurt, but there is plenty of reason to believe they can continue to field a contender moving forward.  A lot is riding on Tucker, Alvarez, and Whitley forming most of a new core of cheap star talent.

They can probably build a bridge faster if they trade Correa but another way Crane can mitigate the farm degradation is by taking on some bad contracts with top prospects or draft picks attached.  Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon, Wade Davis, and Miguel Cabrera come to mind as potential targets in that scenario.

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Yeah I think it is still an attractive job for aspiring GMs. Crane has shown that he will spend when it makes sense to do so. You have Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez locked down for the next several seasons - there aren't many better offensive trios than that out there, and Tucker is a promising everyday player as well. That's a good offensive foundation even after losing those other guys. The pitching concerns me more...we really need Whitley to at least approach his potential and become a legit #2/3 starter (obviously he has the stuff to be a #1 but that seems unlikely) and Urquidy to be a reliable starter. Then again, a lot of money will be freed up as Verlander and Greinke deals expire. 

Anyway, I'm hoping for the guy from TB to replace Lunhow. 

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As some of these contracts come off the books, do not assume that equal value deals will replace them. Don’t expect Crane to remain at the top of the league, salary wise. This has been a unique time, unlikely to be duplicated in the near future. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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It’s going to be a brave new world after 2021 and whatever CBA will be governing the rest of the decade.
Sure, I would much rather have Luhnow navigating that new reality, but find the next “smartest guy in the room” and let him be the first to exploit whatever shortcomings the new deal has to our benefit before the rest of the league catches on

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One thing I think about a lot is the 2017 team only had 5 of the top 13 hitters (Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and Fisher) and 2 (TWO!: McCullers and Keuchel) of the top 13 pitchers as players who were entirely homegrown.  Other than Verlander, all the guys they traded for were secondary players acquired without top prospects.  And the free agents in that roster were complementary guys.  So really they just need 5-6 good young stars plus a decent enough farm and enough payroll to fill in the rest.  I think Tucker, Alvarez, and Whitley represent potentially 3/5 of another core, so they will need to unearth another another couple of stars from somewhere.  And those guys won’t have to be superstars, because Houston will still have core players from the last group (Altuve, Bregman).

 

If I’m Crane or the GM, I watch those 3 guys (Tucker, Whitley, Alvarez) this season and if I don’t think I can count on them for 10+ war total each year for the next 5+ years, I would go ahead and start rebuilding.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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per the Rays website

James Click enters his second season as vice president of baseball operations. In this role, he is involved in all aspects of the baseball operations department with a focus on baseball research and development, baseball systems, clubhouse operations and departmental logistics. He also assists with player evaluation, roster configuration and deployment, contract negotiation and staff management. Click joined the Rays organization in 2006 as coordinator of baseball operations. He was then promoted to director of baseball research and development and later director of baseball operations. James was raised in Durham, N.C. and earned his bachelor's degree in history from Yale University. He and his wife, Ace, reside in St. Petersburg with their two sons, Sam and Nate.

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18 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

put on the black hats and start fucking people up. 

apologize to their widows. 

This x 100. Do you think Boston fans give a shit that people not from there hate both the Pats and Red Sox for cheating. Fuck no, they’re proud of the trophy collection. We need get another damn WS trophy and have our nuts hanging low and not giving a fuck. H-town - ride or die.

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39 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

All of those worried about changing course on analytics can breathe easy now. 

Crane appears to really be on the forefront of analytics. He understands that analytics finds adjustments to not having a payroll of the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers. Even those teams have stopped the ridiculous contracts they used to give out to be in the luxury tax.

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On 1/29/2020 at 8:53 PM, RGBIII said:

Not sure if it’s been reported anywhere but watch for James Click (Rays VP of Ops) for GM. Definitely seems like an organization fit..really anyone from the Rays would be

Hope between calling this and saying Dusty was the heavy heavy favorite (I would have said shoe in but there were questions about Dusty taking the one year contract) got me some credibility back. My guy said the second Click accepted the interview he was the heavy favorite and they were trying their damndest to keep the whole search under wraps, a lot of the Gm candidates still in baseball didn’t want their names attached to the search due to potential fan backlash. This is a fantastic hire btw, imagine the Rays with max money....

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29 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Very happy.  I hope he forgets that bullpenning nonsense.

why?  it allowed a team with substandard payroll to maximize their talent pool to compete with teams they had no business beating.  the goal is to win.  it doesn't matter if you do that conventionally or not.  he found a way to win.  period.  he likely won't have to use that in Houston in the near term, but if it helps win a game that is needed to clinch a division, alds, alcs, etc then you use it.  

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