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Mrs Whiggins

By Mrs Whiggins
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I'd just like to point out that neither myself nor any of my fellow nurses, fellow advanced nurse practitioners, and other healthcare providers ever swore an oath that we would lay down our lives for

Bama Chick
Bama Chick

Welp, it finally happened. I snapped in public today. I went into work for a bit this morning because I’m trying to figure out the safest way to host physicians we are recruiting given our CV-19 sit

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I don't really know what to say anymore tbh. What happened last night is hard to put into words for anyone who hasn't worked in a hospital healthcare setting. Just unreal. Everyone is getting fucked.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Not sure what this means:

1. 80% of the citie's population rides the subway or bus a day (I'd believe that).

2. Less than 1% of the citie's population rides the subway or bus a day (no way).

3  Each person averages just less than 1 ride per day (seems low but I guess I could believe it).

883,305 - San Fran

8,398,748 - 5 boroughs

Yes, that's my math.  Going by memory (I'm not going to go back and redo it) just over 6M rides per day in NYC, just over 0.5M rides per day in SF.  Normalized to population, not very different.

So basically nowhere near enough to explain a 50X difference in deaths per capita.

I think Anastasis' thoughts on seeded infection from Europe are closer, but I'm not sure I believe it explains the sudden ramp in NYC relative to SF given they both basically started on the same date.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You’re an unabashed idiot. The best kind of idiot. You’re like the Junior Miller of religion and politics. It’s too easy. Rather than dispute anything you say above, I’m simply say fuck your own face, and Happy Easter, idiot. 

^^not Rex Kramer. Not at all. Nope.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

This is the problem. The federal government is cutting back funding on testing because trump doesn’t want the world to know how bad  the problem is and therefore how bad he’s fucked up. 

Without testing we can’t open up. With testing we can. 

 With trump we cannot fully test. So what is the remedy do that? Remove trump. 

We cannot get back to normal with trump as the president. With just about anyone else as the president we can. 

This is not hard to understand. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted

Trump is a psycho madman who cares about nothing but himself. Argue against that trolls.

Trump does not want to fully test for the virus because he inherently knows it will make him look bad. Argue against that trolls.

People will die, and the economy will continue to tank, because we can’t fully open up because we refuse to test because it will make our psycho president look bad. Argue against that trolls.

Every day that trump remains as the president will cost us thousands of lives and trillions of dollars. Argue against that trolls. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

LOL. Hot takes from JDF. 

You got a

 

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

LOL. Hot takes from JDF. 

 

You got any kind of substantive response to this or just some more troll bullshit.

Our response to this is a joke. A deadly one. 

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Care to read my last post and respond?

 

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yes, that's my math.  Going by memory (I'm not going to go back and redo it) just over 6M rides per day in NYC, just over 0.5M rides per day in SF.  Normalized to population, not very different.

So basically nowhere near enough to explain a 50X difference in deaths per capita.

I think Anastasis' thoughts on seeded infection from Europe are closer, but I'm not sure I believe it explains the sudden ramp in NYC relative to SF given they both basically started on the same date.

 

I am agreeing with you. Here is another angle.  Maybe we look at the number of passengers from China or Europe to LAX and SFO during the seeding timeframe, compared to the number of passengers flying from China or Europe to tristate area. I already indicated the problem with looking at deaths, and we know that case counts are fucked because of testing. Let's just think of infectious seeding as a function of the passenger numbers. Maybe we weight China, Italy, France, Spain, UK, etc. but we could just start with a look at the gross numbers of people coming in internationally.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I am agreeing with you. Here is another angle.  Maybe we look at the number of passengers from China or Europe to LAX and SFO during the seeding timeframe, compared to the number of passengers flying from China or Europe to tristate area.

I thought of travel from China, but there is the fact that most of it was already curtailed by March.  I *might* expect a bit more into California than NYC, but honestly, they're both about the same distance.  I have no idea how actual passenger number compare, though.

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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9312

Posted
Posted
Sure he is. I'm surprised anyone would argue otherwise. I watched eight years of his presidency and no one ever brandished their faith more than he did. He constantly presented himself as being on a mission from God. It affected his policy from the "War on Terror" to his bans on gay marriage and stem cell research. 
You can't make a "No true Scotsman" defense of him. He was our first evangelical president.. Saying he's not an evangelical is like saying Trump's not a racist. 
When Bush comes out and says that God never told him to invade Iraq, I'll believe he's changed his ways. 


Jimmy Carter was the first evangelical president.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I thought of travel from China, but there is the fact that most of it was already curtailed by March.  I *might* expect a bit more into California than NYC, but honestly, they're both about the same distance.  I have no idea how actual passenger number compare, though.

I am not sure were we are disconnecting here.  That is my point. The east coast continued to get seeded from the European hot spots  through mid march, while the seeding from China was significantly curtailed at end of Jan. I am assuming a differential between the east and west coast exposure, europe and china respectively, but that assumption may very well be misplaced. 

Edited by Anastasis
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I am not sure were we are disconnecting here.  That is my point. The east coast continued to get seeded from the European hot spots  through mid march, while the seeding from China was significantly curtailed at end of Jan. 

No doubt.  Let's try to bracket it:  at what point were the caseloads likely similar?  2-3 weeks before the death rates started to diverge?  So, roughly the beginning of March?

One week later, NY had 4.2X as many deaths as CA.  To me, if it's primarily travel related, that implies that there was a massive injection of carriers from Europe in one week, and more likely, less than that.  "Massive" means "overwhelming the existing caseload by roughly 4X".  (At least I think it means that.)  This could be explained by an exploding viral outbreak in Europe during that time, but I think that's about the only way it could happen, because it doesn't seem likely that there would be any significant bump in passenger count from one week to the next.

One last thought:  at that point in time, fatalities in NY were doubling EVERY DAY.  What are the odds this runaway condition in New York is explained primarily by European travel and not by California's rapid shutdown?

I'm talking my way through this, so if anyone sees flaws in the arguments, speak up.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm talking my way through this, so if anyone sees flaws in the arguments, speak up.

You and me both. With a cocktail. 

My thinking is that crazy things can happen with exponential growth rates.  Doesn't take much in terms of a difference in the initial seeding, or even just a slight tweek in where people are in the incubation period, to blow the timeline and the numbers.  

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yoladu

yoladu 4063

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Pretty good reply 

Dog barks back 

Unfortunately that twitter retort to Trump's tweet is only effective for anyone who is engaged enough to want to know the truth. So, by default that reply will fall on deaf ears, but i guess possibly the effort might make one feel good.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You and me both. With a cocktail. 

My thinking is that crazy things can happen with exponential growth rates.  Doesn't take much in terms of a difference in the initial seeding, or even just a slight tweek in where people are in the incubation period, to blow the timeline and the numbers.  

Well, we know this:  113 more people died in NY than CA in the week between 3/15 and 3/22

To me, that implies something like 5,650 excess carriers arrived in NY roughly two weeks prior (3/1-3/8), assuming a 2% mortality rate.  (That's where I'm getting dangerously close to the weeds, because exponential growth, as you indicated.  Hold on, it gets even less defensible.)  What percentage of European travelers could have been infected at that time?  I don't know, that's where testing becomes a huge issue.  If we go forward 2 weeks, we see 4,825 deaths in Italy.  That kind of implies something like 241K infected in early March, using our 2% mortality rate.  That number is 0.4% of Italy's population.  EU's population is roughly 450M people.  So, using that, let's go with 1.8M infected in Europe during the time NY was getting "seeded" (using that 2% guesstimate).

Ignoring for the moment my grotesque analysis, I think this says that 0.3% of Europe had to travel to New York in one week.

I realize the numbers are coarse as hell, but surely I'm off on some basic assumption.  Otherwise, no fucking way.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

To me, that implies something like 5,650 excess carriers arrived in NY roughly two weeks prior (3/1-3/8), assuming a 2% mortality rate. 

I'm mathed out at this hour, but conceptually I think that you are getting way too tight with timeframes and assumptions. Expand your arrival window to include the entire month of february and play with the assumptions on incubation period, asymptomatic transmission, and mortality rate and I woudl wager its probably fairly easy to find a combination that covers 113 incremental deaths. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I'm mathed out at this hour, but conceptually I think that you are getting way too tight with timeframes and assumptions. Expand your arrival window to include the entire month of february and play with the assumptions on incubation period, asymptomatic transmission, and mortality rate and I woudl wager its probably fairly easy to find a combination that covers 113 incremental deaths. 

If you think I'm doing spread and error bar analysis on my bullshit model, juiced on what's about to be my 5th beer, you're nuts.

Anyway, thanks for bouncing these ideas around.  I think it would be tough to put good numbers to the problem that truly support excess seeding as much as California's early action, but I'll probably keep thinking about it.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you think I'm doing spread and error bar analysis on my bullshit model, juiced on what's about to be my 5th beer, you're nuts.

Anyway, thanks for bouncing these ideas around.  I think it would be tough to put good numbers to the problem that truly support excess seeding as much as California's early action, but I'll probably keep thinking about it.

Cheers.  But I am wondering why you waited to his the beers and didn't start with the 70 proof kahlua in your coffee this morning. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28696

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

 


Jimmy Carter was the first evangelical president.

 

Bullshit. Jimmy Carter is a humble, respectable Christian. He was honest about his faith but he never once acted as if he was God's messenger. He ran a secular administration. Go back and re-read his Playboy interview. You're out of your fucking mind if you think Carter is an evangelical.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45428

Posted
Posted
Just now, Anastasis said:

Cheers.  But I am wondering why you waited to his the beers and didn't start with the 70 proof kahlua in your coffee this morning. 

Coffee black all day until beer time.  It's my jam.

"Beer time" seems to be getting earlier as the spring wears on.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 75959

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Unfortunately that twitter retort to Trump's tweet is only effective for anyone who is engaged enough to want to know the truth. So, by default that reply will fall on deaf ears, but i guess possibly the effort might make one feel good.

 

MAGA base eats that shit up. hopefully that base continues to shrink 

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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9312

Posted
Posted
Bullshit. Jimmy Carter is a humble, respectable Christian. He was honest about his faith but he never once acted as if he was God's messenger. He ran a secular administration. Go back and re-read his Playboy interview. You're out of your fucking mind if you think Carter is an evangelical.  

he himself declared and self-identifies as an evangelical.

evangelicalism comes in many stripes. i’m Episcopalian, identify Liberally as a liberal and i’m an evangelical. St. Augustine was an evangelical, as was St. Thomas, Luther, Karl Barth, and a whole litany of many millions throughout history....both past and present.

per chance you don’t understand the term or ecclesiology, theology, history and praxis behind what it means to be evangelical and instead root your opinion in a Liberal political definition.

but your doing so exposes you as ignorant at best to those of us who know better.
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elfenix

elfenix 34161

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Could be a false negative. My best bud here in Dallas got a positive and his wife had been more ill than he was. She tested negative and the nurse said she was sure it was a false negative and she had it. 

Quote

Unfortunately, we have very little public data on the false-negative rate for these tests in clinical practice. Research coming out of China indicates that the false-negative rate may be around 30 percent. Some of my colleagues, experts in laboratory medicine, express concerns the false-negative rate in this country could be even higher.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/well/live/coronavirus-symptoms-tests-false-negative.html

 

test is borderline useless, but i guess it's what we've got. 

 

meanwhile, per covidtracking.com, only an additional 136,384 were completed today.  not much of an increase over the last week (low sunday of 122,603, high thursday of 162,789, avg 144,655, with a total of 2,655,666 tests completed in the US in total.  well short of the 4 million pence promised. 

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Wanker Bob

Wanker Bob 379

Posted
Posted

I admit it. In 2016 I thought there was a solid chance that Trump would at least turn the corrupt political establishment on it's ear in a positive way for the country. 

Instead he has come in and led the most corrupt and incompetent administration the country has ever seen. He makes Nero look like Abraham Lincoln. To not see that by now takes real derangement. 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

I have as much disdain for organized religion as the next liberal commie, but unfortunately for evangelicals the term “evangelical” has been tarnished by the actions of most of the loudest and most prominent in their ranks.

Fundamentalist and evangelical are not the same but have come to be synonymous.

And don’t get me started on the crossover with the shitting prosperity gospel dickfaces.

That’s why people like Jimmy Carter and Mrs. Brisket need to come up with a new name and let the evangelicals go fuck themselves.

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elfenix

elfenix 34161

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

How about we split the groups into “Evangelical” and  “Non-Grifter Orthodox Evangelical”? 

what about grifter heterodox evangelical?

 

paula-white-and-donald-trump.jpg?quality

Edited by elfenix
damn thing thinks carriage returns are hitting the post button
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28696

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

he himself declared and self-identifies as an evangelical.

evangelicalism comes in many stripes. i’m Episcopalian, identify Liberally as a liberal and i’m an evangelical. St. Augustine was an evangelical, as was St. Thomas, Luther, Karl Barth, and a whole litany of many millions throughout history....both past and present.

per chance you don’t understand the term or ecclesiology, theology, history and praxis behind what it means to be evangelical and instead root your opinion in a Liberal political definition.

but your doing so exposes you as ignorant at best to those of us who know better.

Where and when did he self-identify as an evangelical?

Remind me again who Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson supported in the 1980 election. 

Why do you only capitalize proper nouns and the word "liberal?"

Edited by WhatTheBuck
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