2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 43716]

51 minutes ago, WBT said:

So is Silver going to actually publish a model this year or just continue to be a drama queen?  In 2016 it launched on June 29.

Yeah he's been bullshitting about it for almost two weeks now. 

[Bullneck 18959]

46 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Change your avatar to this.  Much cuter.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Bullneck

[gmr548 16427]

Not specific to whites, but they'd probably argue he took away or fought to take their "rights" to discriminate based on "religious liberty grounds" against gays, as well as women seeking employee-sponsored insurance coverage for reproductive services. 

How many lawsuits has UT had over affirmative action in admissions now?

White America has a victim complex.

[gmr548 16427]

Good bois for Biden

[gmr548 16427]

So is Silver going to actually publish a model this year or just continue to be a drama queen?  In 2016 it launched on June 29.

Yeah he's been bullshitting about it for almost two weeks now. 

They're pretty clearly trying to keep people from running with the headline, which will be a massive Biden advantage.

[Wulaw Horn 18936]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

They're pretty clearly trying to keep people from running with the headline, which will be a massive Biden advantage.

Is he scared that it’s going to have Biden at 99% or something like that?  

[The Dog 43716]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

They're pretty clearly trying to keep people from running with the headline, which will be a massive Biden advantage.

or just waiting for the VP pick and the reaction to it? 

that's all I can think of.

[Bullneck 18959]

On 8/9/2020 at 12:23 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Exactly. I’m not fucking voting for the Cheeto. I’m embarrassed by his presidency. I don’t give a damn what happens to him. I’m literally just talking about the idea that maybe, just maybe, this shit isn’t as important as people think it is. 

I worked for my congressman in DC one summer when I was at UT. I’ve been on campaigns for school board and state rep ( not me- but I’ve been officers on them). I used to follow the news. I haven’t done any of that on a long time and my life is better for it. 

I don’t care who votes for who. I’m just saying it’s not that big a deal- because that’s objective fact thy your vote won’t decide an election. 

 

also- if anyone was going to decide not to vote because of my arguments it would be a Trump person not voting. 

Fuck you, you stupid pussy.

[gmr548 16427]

Is he scared that it’s going to have Biden at 99% or something like that?  

That's how I've interpreted their constant caveats. Even in 2016, when they gave Trump something like a 25-30 percent chance, way more than most, they made a point of cautioning not to read it as a Clinton lock. Of course, people still threw that model back in their face when Trump won.

 

So I think they are trying to hedge what's going to be a way more lopsided forecast for Biden (sonething based purely on polling and economic fundamentals would give Trump essentially zero chance) than anything they ever gave Clinton.

 

I've come around to your abd GOLL's view on the data. This shit is over... If everyone's vote is counted. There's enough out there to make that iffy at best though. What Trump has done with the USPS is an impeachable offense, given the circumstances. Really is third world stuff. Anyone who cares about this country should be outraged by that. Addressing your other posts, I don't see how you can shrug off this election citing faith that America is bigger than one president when he is very openly attempting to erode that notion.

 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

That's how I've interpreted their constant caveats. Even in 2016, when they gave Trump something like a 25-30 percent chance, way more than most, they made a point of cautioning not to read it as a Clinton lock. Of course, people still threw that model back in their face when Trump won.

So I think they are trying to hedge what's going to be a way more lopsided forecast for Biden (sonething based purely on polling and economic fundamentals would give Trump essentially zero chance) than anything they ever gave Clinton.

I've come around to your abd GOLL's view on the data. This shit is over... If everyone's vote is counted. There's enough out there to make that iffy at best though. What Trump has done with the USPS is an impeachable offense, given the circumstances. Really is third world stuff. Anyone who cares about this country should be outraged by that.

Exactly. If the Rs and this admin hadn’t proven they will do anything, and I mean anything, to win, I would probably be predicting a massive destruction at the ballot box. But I can’t do that. 

[Wulaw Horn 18936]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

That's how I've interpreted their constant caveats. Even in 2016, when they gave Trump something like a 25-30 percent chance, way more than most, they made a point of cautioning not to read it as a Clinton lock. Of course, people still threw that model back in their face when Trump won.

So I think they are trying to hedge what's going to be a way more lopsided forecast for Biden (sonething based purely on polling and economic fundamentals would give Trump essentially zero chance) than anything they ever gave Clinton.

I've come around to your abd GOLL's view on the data. This shit is over... If everyone's vote is counted. There's enough out there to make that iffy at best though. What Trump has done with the USPS is an impeachable offense, given the circumstances. Really is third world stuff. Anyone who cares about this country should be outraged by that.

Man, it’s over even if everyone’s vote isn’t counted. It’s that lopsided. 
I only ever really feel like 1 election was legit stolen- the Franken Coleman election in Minnesota. Maybe you want to try to argue Bush v Gore- I disagree but I won’t roll my eyes over it. 
some old people claim Kennedy in 1960 but I look at the numbers and I don’t see it. 
Is it possible to “steal” an election? Sure. If it’s razor fucking thin and even then, if we are all being honest with ourselves if 0.002% is the deciding margin of voting it’s not really even worth believing firmly your guy won or lost. It’s like arguing “‘my team is so much better than yours” after a bad court buzzer beater to win by 2. Sure, you won, but shit man- could have gone either way. 
this election, however, is going to be so far outside the bounds of what shenanigans can get away with that it’s pointless. Seriously, you can’t move Michigan 10 points or Wisconsin 8 points or PA 11 points through chicanery. 

[wildcat09 29146]

Jesus, am I glad I didn’t check on this thread for a couple of days while Wulaw was beclowning himself.

Here’s what I don’t get: if he’s still a conservative who thinks conservatism is good, he should be blaming everything on Trump as a uniquely horrible person who has corrupted everything to his own end. Because you can’t just say that who’s in charge doesn’t matter. There’s 200,000 dead from covid that disagree, thousands more that were caged and then deported to Guatemala and murdered, thousands that died AFTER the storm in Puerto Rico because they got no help, etc. The harm that poor leadership can do has never been more obvious. If you’re lucky you can ignore them and pretend they don’t exist, but that makes you a giant fucking asshole and I know Wulaw likes to think of himself as not a giant fucking asshole.

I think it would be incorrect, but it’s very easy for a conservative to blame this all on Trump. That’s the easy play here! Because to say that Trump really doesn’t matter is to implicitly indict the entire GOP and the decades of GOP policies and behavior that brought us here. It’s not just the fucking whims of fate; someone is responsible for these decisions that result in us still not responding to a pandemic when we’re nearly six fucking months into it. You can blame it on Trump, you can blame it on the GOP pieces of shit that enable him, or you can blame it on both. What you can’t do is say it doesn’t matter.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Anecdotal from being on the road in rural areas for the last 2 months on the signs:

100-1 Trump signs. Easily. My wife keeps saying- see- he’s going to win this election (she’s a dem- so she says that with massive fright) and I’m like no- the cities are going to go 95-5 against him and the suburbs 60-40 against and there’s not a ton of votes out in the sticks. The yard sign game is amazing out in bfe. 

Not going to lie..... the trump administration has really made me hate rural folks. Despite the fact that I never go to their towns and interact with them.

i guess it’s that and those fuckers always out vote us ( I live in Texas). In most states, the big city or county with the big city rules the roost. Texas is opposite, we have many big cities, but it doesn’t matter because the rural folks and suburban folks always have more voters. Too many Texans in the city of Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio vote red for my liking as well.

the whole thing is very disappointing and frustrating. All we can do is hope the margins continue to narrow until its close enough to overtake them. One good thing is that the rural folks who die generally aren’t being replaced. The cities of Texas will eventually overwhelm, and I can’t wait for that day to come.

[ultimaton 2966]

People not wanting to make themselves a target for the right wing extremists who are going to lose their shit thinking the election was stolen from Trump is probably as big a factor in the yard-sign gap as anything.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ha. I’ve seen 2 Biden signs (like I said- no cities or burbs). On in Virginia and one in PA. 
Let’s just say the Trump stuff in ND right now outnumbers Biden by a fair bit. 
what’s amazing is they all think he’s going to win. My mom and dad and brother keep wanting to up the bet for the election with me (they all have Trump winning in a monster easy victory). I talked to a couple of people on the road and I’m like- you know he’s going to lose and lose big, right?  And they just have this perplexed look on their face like who would think he’s going to lose. 
It’s amazing. 

Can you contrast this look to the look on their faces when you tell them voting doesn’t change the outcome of elections?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Not going to lie..... the trump administration has really made me hate rural folks. Despite the fact that I never go to their towns and interact with them.

i guess it’s that and those fuckers always out vote us ( I live in Texas). In most states, the big city or county with the big city rules the roost. Texas is opposite, we have many big cities, but it doesn’t matter because the rural folks and suburban folks always have more voters. Too many Texans in the city of Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio vote red for my liking as well.

the whole thing is very disappointing and frustrating. All we can do is hope the margins continue to narrow until its close enough to overtake them. One good thing is that the rural folks who die generally aren’t being replaced. The cities of Texas will eventually overwhelm, and I can’t wait for that day to come.

You can hate the rural folks all you want. Personally I just choose to blanket hate stupidity over geography. That being said, your angst should really be directed at the pieces of shit who don’t vote. The ignorant fucks in the sticks get out and vote and exercise their freedoms, even if they’re doing it to steer towards tyranny. It’s the apathetic fucksticks who don’t vote at all that really make me want to rage murder. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

The rural folks have it pretty bad. Shitty schools, limited healthcare, no high speed internet access, dwindling opportunities.  It’s a left behind America you’re not going to see on TV.  I’m not surprised this group is more interested in burning it down than building it up. 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

I alternate between hating the rurals and feeling sorry for them.  Whenever I drive through some shit Texas town, it's obvious just how badly the system has failed them.  Walmart and Dollar Generals came in and destroyed local businesses, big agriculture drove local farmers out of existence, and large employers generally avoiding those locations have decimated their existence.  No wonder these people have turned to drugs and have retreated into these paranoid shells of themselves. 

Then combine all that with a 30 year propaganda campaign from right wing radio and news and here we are.

That said, party of personal responsibility, you should have taken responsibility and tried to stop those forces when they were first infiltrating you.  So again, for me, hate mixed with pity.

[Zonahorn 8072]

Can we please stop talking about how Trump will try to rig the election, there's nothing anybody can do about it except vote. So shut up and go vote.

[lemonlime 5503]

Honestly, it’s his rich, suburban supporters who tick me off. His rural supporters are living in a bubble, where they’re being fed a bunch of fake information. They also are less likely to know immigrants, non-Christians, people who are out of the closet, etc.

But I work with a bunch of middle aged, white, suburban, educated, upper middle class dudes who support him. They know better, but put their heads in the sand because racism and tribe.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The rural folks have it pretty bad. Shitty schools, limited healthcare, no high speed internet access, dwindling opportunities.  It’s a left behind America you’re not going to see on TV.  I’m not surprised this group is more interested in burning it down than building it up. 

The irony of your statement is that those people don't think they're burning it down. They think they're building it back up. 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

Just now, lemonlime said:

Honestly, it’s his rich, suburban supporters who tick me off. His rural supporters are living in a bubble, where they’re being fed a bunch of fake information. They also are less likely to know immigrants, non-Christians, people who are out of the closet, etc.

But I work with a bunch of middle aged, white, suburban, educated, upper middle class dudes who support him. They know better, but put their heads in the sand because racism and tribe.

This is a good point.

[Guest Lobo]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I alternate between hating the rurals and feeling sorry for them.  Whenever I drive through some shit Texas town, it's obvious just how badly the system has failed them.  Walmart and Dollar Generals came in and destroyed local businesses, big agriculture drove local farmers out of existence, and large employers generally avoiding those locations have decimated their existence.  No wonder these people have turned to drugs and have retreated into these paranoid shells of themselves. 

Then combine all that with a 30 year propaganda campaign from right wing radio and news and here we are.

That said, party of personal responsibility, you should have taken responsibility and tried to stop those forces when they were first infiltrating you.  So again, for me, hate mixed with pity.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90278384/why-dollar-stores-are-bad-business-for-the-neighborhoods-they-open-in

Fascinating article from about 18 months ago about how it's Dollar Stores, not Wal-Marts, that truly signal the pending death of your town.  But it's just easier to blame Mexicans and Gays.  

[SilasCoade 2620]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is a good point.

No it's not. Those suburban white upper middle class professionals are at least voting in their own interests. Poor rural Americans voting for Trump because of insincere platitudes are actively voting against their own interests. It's pitiful.

[Hiphopopotamos 20862]

NSIAP:

 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

10 minutes ago, Llogg said:

No it's not. Those suburban white upper middle class professionals are at least voting in their own interests. Poor rural Americans voting for Trump because of insincere platitudes are actively voting against their own interests. It's pitiful.

Ok, they both suck.

[BradInATX 9208]

Man a blowout would be great, but we have to maintain focusness. This is all that matters:

 

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Man a blowout would be great, but we have to maintain focusness. This is all that matters:

 

 

 

And Florida.  No path for dotard without Florida.

[Wulaw Horn 18936]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And Florida.  No path for dotard without Florida.

If he won everything he won last time except florida he’d still win. But there’s not a universe where that happens I don’t think, so... there’s no path for him period. 

[lemonlime 5503]

No it's not. Those suburban white upper middle class professionals are at least voting in their own interests. Poor rural Americans voting for Trump because of insincere platitudes are actively voting against their own interests. It's pitiful.

Yes, they’re voting in their perceived own interest, while being fully aware of how the GOP is treating others. Which is why I feel contempt for them. They’re okay with treating immigrants, women, minorities, etc. like shit so long as the stock market is growing. Why would I respect that position?

Also, I’m not even sure they’re voting in their own interest. Uncontrolled pandemic, 30 M unemployment, cuts to Social Security and Medicare, attempts to get rid of the ACA, skyrocketing deficit, and having everyone in the country hate each other is not in reality in their interest.

[SubliminalHorn 6622]

12 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

NSIAP:

 

Christ it can’t be emphasized enough how shitty of a candidate Hillary was. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

And Florida.  No path for dotard without Florida.

Yeah, absolutely.

I'm just of the mind that all of these polls move together for the most part. One thing that the models got wrong last time was how synchronized the states are. Even annoying old 538 admitted they missed on that in their 2016 post-mortem. I don't really see any scenario where Florida goes blue and MI/WI/PA don't. So Florida to me is more of a running up the score state than anything.

But, if we see Florida going blue on election night, we can start the party early and not even worry about waiting on those states on Central time. So let's just hope it goes that way.

I honestly think we're going to know how things are going to go really early on. I think we can take a look at a few early-reporting Florida counties, look at the difference between 2016 and 2018, and if it's more than 5, it's a Biden win. We'll probably know what's going to happen by the time Duval county (Jacksonville) starts reporting substantial amounts of votes. 

[gmr548 16427]

Whenever I drive through some shit Texas town, it's obvious just how badly the system has failed them.

Yes, but also oh my god is rural poverty way worse in OK, AR, LA, and NM. Rural Texas at least has a state government funded by large metro areas.

[thepop 4409]

I guess I didn’t pay attention to battleground state polls in 2016. I didn’t know they were all that close.

I was fooled by the national polls.

[Hank Kingsley 20594]

Abolish the fucking electoral college. 

 

 

[gmr548 16427]

I honestly think we're going to know how things are going to go really early on.

This is usually the case just because most swing states are in the eastern time zone. Even in 2016, I don't think anyone wanted to admit it, but you could read the writing on the wall fairly early in the night.

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

This is usually the case just because most swing states are in the eastern time zone. Even in 2016, I don't think anyone wanted to admit it, but you could read the writing on the wall fairly early in the night.

 

 

I texted my mom and brothers that Trump was going to win maybe 45 minutes into reporting, hours before the networks started intimating that he had it. They thought I was crazy. The map guy on CNN will give you what you need to figure it out, you just have to walk it out a bit further in your own head. If they wanted to, the networks could give really good analytics and could probably project a winner 30 minutes in, but they're not going to do that, for obvious reasons. I'm pretty sure CNN's map guy knew, he had a couple of "oh shit" moments that I caught, because I was sort of in the middle of my own.

In 2016 the NYT had a dashboard that basically did what I'm talking about, it projected the results based on county-level returns and how they were looking against a baseline. They were projecting Trump winning really early too. I hope they have that up again this year.

Edited August 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[royiv 9124]

53 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Can we please stop talking about how Trump will try to rig the election, there's nothing anybody can do about it except vote. So shut up and go vote.

Not according to @Wulaw Horn. Your vote doesn't count according to him so don't bother voting. Biden will still win even if no one votes for him. It's magic.

[royiv 9124]

Just now, BradInATX said:

 

I texted my mom and brothers that Trump was going to win maybe 45 minutes into reporting, hours before the networks started intimating that he had it. They thought I was crazy. The map guy on CNN will give you what you need to figure it out, you just have to walk it out a bit further in your own head. If they wanted to, the networks could give really good analytics and could probably project a winner 30 minutes in, but they're not going to do that, for obvious reasons. I'm pretty sure CNN's map guy knew, he had a couple of "oh shit" moments that I caught, because I was sort of in the middle of my own.

Similar thing here. Was living in AZ last election. Walked into the living room around 4:30 to turn on CNN and start watching the returns. By the time my wife got home from work between 5:30 and 6, I told her it was already over and to settle in for a long night of drinking.

[Biff Tannen 45439]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

This is usually the case just because most swing states are in the eastern time zone. Even in 2016, I don't think anyone wanted to admit it, but you could read the writing on the wall fairly early in the night.

 

Yep.  By 8pm central I was thinking, holy shit, this is happening.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

1 minute ago, royiv said:

Similar thing here. Was living in AZ last election. Walked into the living room around 4:30 to turn on CNN and start watching the returns. By the time my wife got home from work between 5:30 and 6, I told her it was already over and to settle in for a long night of drinking.

1) excellent username because of the combination of Roy Williams, No. 4 and Royal Ivey.

2) I was working that night and had the NYT speedometer thing going on my screen.  The needles flipped from 99% Hillary to 80% Trump in seconds and I spent the next few hours in an orderly progression through the stages of grief.  Evidently the polls weren't all that wrong back then, but it was a real failing of the media.  The loudest voices never really got the message out that Trump might actually win, even though everyone points out now in retrospect that it was always a 30% chance or something. 

[Biff Tannen 45439]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The loudest voices never really got the message out that Trump might actually win, even though everyone points out now in retrospect that it was always a 30% chance or something. 

Well, that and also the idea of a fucking reality show host that was so obviously full of shit and a just god awful human being made it difficult to believe it could happen.  And now we know how bad 40% of America is.

[Brisketexan 104226]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

Can we please stop talking about how Trump will try to rig the election, there's nothing anybody can do about it except vote. So shut up and go vote.

There's actually more we can do.  The Dems need to work with an army of lawyers (I am working on how to be one of them) to have multiple Federal Complaints seeking temporary restraining orders against any number of illegal, suppressive actions in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to the election.  We need to have thousands of lawyers with those Complaints teed up and ready to file with a single button-click.

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I texted my mom and brothers that Trump was going to win maybe 45 minutes into reporting, hours before the networks started intimating that he had it. They thought I was crazy. The map guy on CNN will give you what you need to figure it out, you just have to walk it out a bit further in your own head. If they wanted to, the networks could give really good analytics and could probably project a winner 30 minutes in, but they're not going to do that, for obvious reasons. I'm pretty sure CNN's map guy knew, he had a couple of "oh shit" moments that I caught, because I was sort of in the middle of my own.

In 2016 the NYT had a dashboard that basically did what I'm talking about, it projected the results based on county-level returns and how they were looking against a baseline. They were projecting Trump winning really early too. I hope they have that up again this year.

Yeah, I knew the answer by around 7 or 8 myself.  It was a painful truth that we wanted to deny, but the outcome was right there in front of us.

Oh, and I still think he'll win again.  I think that the turnout of his fanatics will be 95% or more, and I just don't think the turnout on the other side will be able to overcome it, COMBINED with active suppression, denial/destruction/delay of mailed ballots, etc.  It is going to be a comprehensive, naked vote suppression effort, and combined with our shitty electorate, it has a very good chance to work.

[jimmyjazz 45428]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Not going to lie..... the trump administration has really made me hate rural folks. Despite the fact that I never go to their towns and interact with them.

i guess it’s that and those fuckers always out vote us ( I live in Texas). In most states, the big city or county with the big city rules the roost. Texas is opposite, we have many big cities, but it doesn’t matter because the rural folks and suburban folks always have more voters. Too many Texans in the city of Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio vote red for my liking as well.

It's interesting, if you look at the top 8 Texas cities by population, you'll see something like 8.5M people.  Expand that to MSA (which pretty much captures Texas suburbs), it's almost 22M people.  The entire state has 29M people.  This means 45% of Texans live in major metro suburbs, and 29% live in the major cities themselves.  That leaves 25% of the state in smaller cities  and towns as well as rural enclaves.

[LurkingHorn 1044]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There's actually more we can do.  The Dems need to work with an army of lawyers (I am working on how to be one of them) to have multiple Federal Complaints seeking temporary restraining orders against any number of illegal, suppressive actions in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to the election.  We need to have thousands of lawyers with those Complaints teed up and ready to file with a single button-click.

Yeah, I knew the answer by around 7 or 8 myself.  It was a painful truth that we wanted to deny, but the outcome was right there in front of us.

Oh, and I still think he'll win again.  I think that the turnout of his fanatics will be 95% or more, and I just don't think the turnout on the other side will be able to overcome it, COMBINED with active suppression, denial/destruction/delay of mailed ballots, etc.  It is going to be a comprehensive, naked vote suppression effort, and combined with our shitty electorate, it has a very good chance to work.

Don't over think this. He is in a massive hole in the states that matter. As someone who worked an election poll in July, the enthusiasm for the Ds was amazing to see in my suburban neighborhood. Combine that with groups like LeBron's nonprofit, turnout should be more than enough to get this guy out of office. Voter suppression is the last resort and that's what makes me most worried. 

[SubliminalHorn 6622]

30 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I texted my mom and brothers that Trump was going to win maybe 45 minutes into reporting, hours before the networks started intimating that he had it. They thought I was crazy. The map guy on CNN will give you what you need to figure it out, you just have to walk it out a bit further in your own head. If they wanted to, the networks could give really good analytics and could probably project a winner 30 minutes in, but they're not going to do that, for obvious reasons. I'm pretty sure CNN's map guy knew, he had a couple of "oh shit" moments that I caught, because I was sort of in the middle of my own.

In 2016 the NYT had a dashboard that basically did what I'm talking about, it projected the results based on county-level returns and how they were looking against a baseline. They were projecting Trump winning really early too. I hope they have that up again this year.

Yep. I knew it when Virginia was too close to call. It really is fairly easy to project a winner in your head if you pay attention to certain counties and their results. Yeah homeboy on CNN is really good. 

[gmr548 16427]

Yeah, I knew the answer by around 7 or 8 myself.  It was a painful truth that we wanted to deny, but the outcome was right there in front of us.
Oh, and I still think he'll win again.  I think that the turnout of his fanatics will be 95% or more, and I just don't think the turnout on the other side will be able to overcome it, COMBINED with active suppression, denial/destruction/delay of mailed ballots, etc.  It is going to be a comprehensive, naked vote suppression effort, and combined with our shitty electorate, it has a very good chance to work.

Mathematically, the turnout part of your argument just doesn't add up. 95 percent of 46.2 percent (for illustration assuming all of the votes he got last year repeat) - 43.9 percent - isn't a great bet in first past the post electoral politics. I think we'd all bet on Biden improving on Clinton's 48. If Biden even just gets to 50, 50-44 is right between Obama 2008 and 2012 territory, and neither was a particularly close election.

Agreed on the coming third world level interference though.

[HRSchenker 2248]

New Hampshire goes red this election. Right or wrong? Been looking at electoral trends lately on the topic of Texas being purple but New Hampshire is a state that has steadily been turning red every election. Hillary won by less than 3k votes. Gary Johnson took 30k votes away from both candidates but I don't see the current Libertarian candidate doing as well as he did.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

18 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

New Hampshire goes red this election. Right or wrong? Been looking at electoral trends lately on the topic of Texas being purple but New Hampshire is a state that has steadily been turning red every election. Hillary won by less than 3k votes. Gary Johnson took 30k votes away from both candidates but I don't see the current Libertarian candidate doing as well as he did.

it's not really polled well, but everything i've seen says bluer than hillary.  and i don't think its been "trending" red, because it went red multiple times in the 2000s but not 2016, right?

Edited August 11, 2020 by BehoId, The Underminer!
google says only 2000 it was red

[Tom 2959]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's interesting, if you look at the top 8 Texas cities by population, you'll see something like 8.5M people.  Expand that to MSA (which pretty much captures Texas suburbs), it's almost 22M people.  The entire state has 29M people.  This means 45% of Texans live in major metro suburbs, and 29% live in the major cities themselves.  That leaves 25% of the state in smaller cities  and towns as well as rural enclaves.

 

I think people are also overestimating how blue the suburbs have become.  Yes, the GOP's victory margin has been decreasing every couple of years.  I'm still seeing Trump signs all over the place in my Dallas suburban neck of the woods and few Biden signs.  I'm hoping it's a sign that Trump's base is just much more enthusiastic and the Democrats are becoming more of a silent majority rather than the polls being wrong and Texas not becoming as blue as quickly as predicted.  

I also see a bunch of Trump cheerleading nonsense on Nextdoor from both suburban men and women.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Tom