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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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I have 3 people that work for me that came from liberal states. They are voting Trump. One of them silently and 2 of them that won't shut up about it.  They claim that it's the conservatives moving to Texas to escape CA. I don't think I believe them. I bet if you did a migrant voter poll of ex Californians you'd see that the politics of the people moving out match the politics of the people in the state in general.  But I'm guessing. That's all. 
People leaving CA are generally driven by COL, not politics. It's the working and middle class that leave, higher educated/ earning that trend to move out there. That's pretty well documented.

California isn't hurting for millionaires that would have a lower tax burden elsewhere. CA has a lot of appeal and people tend to stay if they can afford it.
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I lived in Northern California (NE Bay) for a couple years .  It's simply too beautiful to want to leave (surrounded by San Francisco, Yosemite, and Lake Tahoe all within a short drive is just the tits mcgee).  And the cost of living, while painful, wasn't all that bad---then again I wasn't in those crazy high brackets.  But the people are an absolute fucking beating.  It's like being on Surly...except that it's real...it's 24 hours/day...and you're usually sober.  

Anyway, what were we talking about?  Surprised to see Travis County is at a bit of an uptick on early voting but nothing compared to the other 5 big counties.  Any theories as to why?  Nevermind, we'll have more data in a few hours here.  

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29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

People leaving CA are generally driven by COL, not politics. It's the working and middle class that leave, higher educated/ earning that trend to move out there. That's pretty well documented.

California isn't hurting for millionaires that would have a lower tax burden elsewhere. CA has a lot of appeal and people tend to stay if they can afford it.

I agree. That's why I said that I suspected the voting affiliation of California expats would look like the political composition of the state in general. I think people anecdotally see what they are doing themselves and think it's part of a greater story, and I don't think it is.  I think Dave is wrong.  Fucking Dave. 

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23 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I lived in Northern California (NE Bay) for a couple years .  It's simply too beautiful to want to leave (surrounded by San Francisco, Yosemite, and Lake Tahoe all within a short drive is just the tits mcgee).  And the cost of living, while painful, wasn't all that bad---then again I wasn't in those crazy high brackets.  But the people are an absolute fucking beating.  It's like being on Surly...except that it's real...it's 24 hours/day...and you're usually sober.  

Anyway, what were we talking about?  Surprised to see Travis County is at a bit of an uptick on early voting but nothing compared to the other 5 big counties.  Any theories as to why?  Nevermind, we'll have more data in a few hours here.  

My Travis County theory- it's always been politically energized so there's less room to grow.  Holy fucking shit- 97% of the county is registered. That's literally insane.  How you going to get more juice out of that?

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24 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I lived in Northern California (NE Bay) for a couple years .  It's simply too beautiful to want to leave (surrounded by San Francisco, Yosemite, and Lake Tahoe all within a short drive is just the tits mcgee).  And the cost of living, while painful, wasn't all that bad---then again I wasn't in those crazy high brackets.  But the people are an absolute fucking beating.  It's like being on Surly...except that it's real...it's 24 hours/day...and you're usually sober.  

Anyway, what were we talking about?  Surprised to see Travis County is at a bit of an uptick on early voting but nothing compared to the other 5 big counties.  Any theories as to why?  Nevermind, we'll have more data in a few hours here.  

Hi, i'm from the internet...

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

They told me to sign at a spot what said I was sent a ballot I didn't solicit. I almost argued that I DID solicit it, but let it go for simplicity.

Well that doesn't seem right. Now you're in a data pool of people who were potential targets of voter fraud. You just made the list, buddy!

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

That's slightly down from 84,000 by 3:00 pm yesterday. This is insane. 

Yeah- that's why I wanted to know what Ghost was worried about with the Montgomery County numbers.  It's just a drop in the bucket and not indicative of anything else I don't think.  
Harris is really really really energized compared to El Paso and some of the northern counties. 

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- that's why I wanted to know what Ghost was worried about with the Montgomery County numbers.  It's just a drop in the bucket and not indicative of anything else I don't think.  
Harris is really really really energized compared to El Paso and some of the northern counties. 

Because I have to assume that Montgomery County is going to vote 75% for Trump again.  Because it's Montgomery County.  That means that every Montgomery County vote is a 0.5 net Trump vote, whereas every Harris County vote is, at best, a 0.2 net Biden vote.  

That's not a drop in the bucket.  Harris County needs to have 250% of Montgomery County's vote to overcome the Trumpiness of that county.  And that's before we address the Trumpiness of any other outlying counties.

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16 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because I have to assume that Montgomery County is going to vote 75% for Trump again.  Because it's Montgomery County.  That means that every Montgomery County vote is a 0.5 net Trump vote, whereas every Harris County vote is, at best, a 0.2 net Biden vote.  

That's not a drop in the bucket.  Harris County needs to have 250% of Montgomery County's vote to overcome the Trumpiness of that county.  And that's before we address the Trumpiness of any other outlying counties.

Harris County's first day early voting increase was about 720% of Montgomery County's increase. 

MC will of course have a higher ratio of Election Day voters but these numbers aren't as concerning as you are implying. 

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because I have to assume that Montgomery County is going to vote 75% for Trump again.  Because it's Montgomery County.  That means that every Montgomery County vote is a 0.5 net Trump vote, whereas every Harris County vote is, at best, a 0.2 net Biden vote.  

That's not a drop in the bucket.  Harris County needs to have 250% of Montgomery County's vote to overcome the Trumpiness of that county.  And that's before we address the Trumpiness of any other outlying counties.

Sure- but you are talking about 10X in Harris County vs Montgomery County, right?  MOCO was always going .5 net Trump- I don't see any reason that's particularly concerning. Especially factoring in MOCO's growth. If you are going to fret about anything I'd say fret more about the counties that are running neck and neck with their 2016 voting numbers in deep blue areas you need to bank votes and run up the score. 
If MOCO isn't a harbinger (and I don't think it is b/c of it's population explosion) of an activated Trump vote coming in stronger than expected then it's a non- issue I'd think. 

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because I have to assume that Montgomery County is going to vote 75% for Trump again.  Because it's Montgomery County.  That means that every Montgomery County vote is a 0.5 net Trump vote, whereas every Harris County vote is, at best, a 0.2 net Biden vote.  

That's not a drop in the bucket.  Harris County needs to have 250% of Montgomery County's vote to overcome the Trumpiness of that county.  And that's before we address the Trumpiness of any other outlying counties.

Yeah, I'm just hoping those Montgomery county #s are being driven by a higher turnout of non-Trump voters diluting the usual Trumpiness of the county. But, good news, the increase in Harris county is well over 250% the increase in Montgomery county (at least as to day 1): ~60,000 increase in Harris vs 8,000 increase in Montgomery. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My Travis County theory- it's always been politically energized so there's less room to grow.  Holy fucking shit- 97% of the county is registered. That's literally insane.  How you going to get more juice out of that?

Austin also has a lot of the Surlyhorns type of folks who are equal parts lazy and smart enough to know that your vote counts whether you wait 10 minutes or 10 hours. We'll just watch the wait times and pick our spot when to go, especially with all of the techies working from home.

 

All the talk talk about Montgomery and Harris County is interesting. What about Hays county which despite the smaller number is up 30% over 2016. It was a 0.9% Trump win with Gary Johnson getting more than 5% of the vote last time. Wonder what to read into that.

Edited by BradInATX
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59 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I agree. That's why I said that I suspected the voting affiliation of California expats would look like the political composition of the state in general. I think people anecdotally see what they are doing themselves and think it's part of a greater story, and I don't think it is.  I think Dave is wrong.  Fucking Dave. 

I currently live in SF Bay Area and before that I lived in the Central Valley (California oil and ag country).  You would be amazed how many fucking rednecks live in this state.  Pretty much every place except for the large cities in SF and LA metro areas vote red.  There are just so many damn people in LA and SF that the state stays blue.  I voted for Biden, but I couldn’t brag about that to my neighbors because they are all Trumpers.  When I moved in, they all came over and said “we’re glad to have someone from Texas and not fucking India living in this house.”

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Austin also has a lot of the Surlyhorns type of mix between lazy and smart folks that are just going to watch the wait times and pick their spot when to go, especially with all of the techies working from home.

 

The talk about Montgomery and Harris County overlooks Hays county which despite the smaller number is up 30% over 2016. It was a 0.9% Trump win with Gary Johnson getting more than 5% of the vote. Wonder what to read into that.

I don't think you have to wonder man. That's what I keep telling Brisket when I say this thing is over (not texas but nationally). He threaded the needle last time around- it seems pretty obvious that's not what's going on here.

I gave my wife a hard time for voting on the first day. She stood in line for 75 minutes in a rural area of Harris County. I was like- if you just wait two days you could be in and out in 5 minutes. She wanted to go vote when the polls open up. She always votes as a habit and b/c she's been taught to vote- so it's not like this is a new vote - it's more like- just getting this in as soon as I can. Shrug- ok.  The anti Trump sentiment is high.  We see it.  It's going to be historic I think.

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5 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

I currently live in SF Bay Area and before that I lived in the Central Valley (California oil and ag country).  You would be amazed how many fucking rednecks live in this state.  Pretty much every place except for the large cities in SF and LA metro areas vote red.  There are just so many damn people in LA and SF that the state stays blue.  I voted for Biden, but I couldn’t brag about that to my neighbors because they are all Trumpers.  When I moved in, they all came over and said “we’re glad to have someone from Texas and not fucking India living in this house.”

I'm from Napa and still have family that lives there. I know California.  Not as well as Texas- but I know it enough not to be amazed by what you are talking about. 

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8 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

I currently live in SF Bay Area and before that I lived in the Central Valley (California oil and ag country).  You would be amazed how many fucking rednecks live in this state.  Pretty much every place except for the large cities in SF and LA metro areas vote red.  There are just so many damn people in LA and SF that the state stays blue.  I voted for Biden, but I couldn’t brag about that to my neighbors because they are all Trumpers.  When I moved in, they all came over and said “we’re glad to have someone from Texas and not fucking India living in this house.”

Driving through central California is just brutal.  Just as redneck as anywhere in the deep south.

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Harris County's first day early voting increase was about 720% of Montgomery County's increase. 

MC will of course have a higher ratio of Election Day voters but there numbers aren't as concerning as you are implying. 

 

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure- but you are talking about 10X in Harris County vs Montgomery County, right?  MOCO was always going .5 net Trump- I don't see any reason that's particularly concerning. Especially factoring in MOCO's growth. If you are going to fret about anything I'd say fret more about the counties that are running neck and neck with their 2016 voting numbers in deep blue areas you need to bank votes and run up the score. 
If MOCO isn't a harbinger (and I don't think it is b/c of it's population explosion) of an activated Trump vote coming in stronger than expected then it's a non- issue I'd think. 

Lets not forget the demographics. Yes, MOCO is going to be red as fuck. And yes, it's a suburb of Houston. But much of it's growth has been in The Woodlands and even some areas of Spring. And while a Houston suburb is a safe bet to be Aggy'd up and generally red, lets not pretend there aren't going to be some healthy levels of growth for Biden folks in the woodlands. I would be very surprised if MOCO breaks for Trump at the same statistics it did last election. I think Biden is going to get 30-35%. Still lots of Exxon transfer folks to their main new campus that will be Democratic voters. 

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14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Austin also has a lot of the Surlyhorns type of folks who are equal parts lazy and smart enough to know that your vote counts whether you wait 10 minutes or 10 hours. We'll just watch the wait times and pick our spot when to go, especially with all of the techies working from home.

 

All the talk talk about Montgomery and Harris County is interesting. What about Hays county which despite the smaller number is up 30% over 2016. It was a 0.9% Trump win with Gary Johnson getting more than 5% of the vote last time. Wonder what to read into that.

I very much think Hays is going to be blue this year.  Not by just a whole lot.  But it'll be blue.

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Harris County's first day early voting increase was about 720% of Montgomery County's increase. 

MC will of course have a higher ratio of Election Day voters but there numbers aren't as concerning as you are implying. 

But it's not enough for Harris County's voting increase to be a lot more than Montgomery County.  We need Montgomery County's increase to be negligible.  Clinton lost by 800,000 votes in 2016.  That's a lot of ground to make up.  We make that up with higher turnout in Harris County and flat turnout in the exurban/rural counties.  And right now, the King of the Exurbs is coming in with pretty fucking strong turnout.

It's concerning.

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I very much think Hays is going to be blue this year.  Not by just a whole lot.  But it'll be blue.

 

Even ignoring Biden vs. Hillary it almost seems inevitable doesn't it? Suburban sprawl from Austin alone could be enough to make up that 1%.

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So the day 1 increase in Denton county is interesting (17,000 additional day 1 votes). In 2016 16,963 voted in person early on day 1. In 2018,  17,278 cast a ballot on day 1. But, somewhat interestingly (I realize I'm comparing a mid-term to a presidential race), the total # of ballots cast in 2018 was roughly the same as 2016 (302,000 in 2016 and 295,000 in 2018). The main thing that changed was the mix, Trump getting 170,000 votes (57%) vs Cruz getting 158,00 votes (53%). I wonder if we'll see a similar swing this election. 

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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Lets not forget the demographics. Yes, MOCO is going to be red as fuck. And yes, it's a suburb of Houston. But much of it's growth has been in The Woodlands and even some areas of Spring. And while a Houston suburb is a safe bet to be Aggy'd up and generally red, lets not pretend there aren't going to be some healthy levels of growth for Biden folks in the woodlands. I would be very surprised if MOCO breaks for Trump at the same statistics it did last election. I think Biden is going to get 30-35%. Still lots of Exxon transfer folks to their main new campus that will be Democratic voters. 

Man- I don't think there is any way Biden gets near 35% I wouldn't expect 30%  If you wanted to set the over under at 30% I would make you a bet for every percentage point high/low. 

What you said is true- but there are also some non-voters for Trump that will show up b/c it's getting tight.   If MOCO is 35% then Texas goes to Biden- probably by 3 or 4 points. I don't think that's likely.  

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11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Driving through central California is just brutal.  Just as redneck as anywhere in the deep south.

My wife worried the entire trip b/c all we saw were Trump signs. I was like- woman- you don't see any people out here do you? Unless they are letting the cows vote there is nothing to worry about. Anywhere with land and breathing space and tumbleweeds is going to be Trump country. 

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This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't vote until 10/31 or later?

 

Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Just now, UTHornFan014 said:

This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't won't until 10/31 or later?

Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk
 

I don't think so.  I think that refers to the date of the election.  You can't vote in any election for which Election Day is before 10/31/2020.

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Just now, UTHornFan014 said:

This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't won't until 10/31 or later?

Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk
 

If the lines aren't long you can go try to vote and see if you are already on the voter rolls - the poll workers should be able to tell you. You can definitely vote on election day. 

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Man- I don't think there is any way Biden gets near 35% I wouldn't expect 30%  If you wanted to set the over under at 30% I would make you a bet for every percentage point high/low. 

What you said is true- but there are also some non-voters for Trump that will show up b/c it's getting tight.   If MOCO is 35% then Texas goes to Biden- probably by 3 or 4 points. I don't think that's likely.  

Trump got 72% in 2016, no? Is that what was posted above? Or was it 75% or 78? I forget.

 

my point is, I thought it was 72%. And if that means 28% voted for Hillary and 3rd party, well, I don’t think getting to 30% for Biden seems all that unreasonable. At all. But that depends if I’m remembering the stats from earlier in this thread correctly. 

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7 minutes ago, UTHornFan014 said:

This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't won't until 10/31 or later?

Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk
 

i just asked this same question on the pinned voter thread. my card says valid from: 10/24/2020, and i was wondering if that means i have to wait until then to vote early?

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Trump got 72% in 2016, no? Is that what was posted above? Or was it 75% or 78? I forget.

 

my point is, I thought it was 72%. And if that means 28% voted for Hillary and 3rd party, well, I don’t think getting to 30% for Biden seems all that unreasonable. At all. But that depends if I’m remembering the stats from earlier in this thread correctly. 

County [34] Trump Trump % Clinton Clinton % Johnson Johnson % Stein Stein % Others Others % Total
                       
Montgomery 150,314 73.46% 45,835 22.40% 6,142 3.00% 1,018 0.50% 1,323 0.65% 204,632
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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Trump got 72% in 2016, no? Is that what was posted above? Or was it 75% or 78? I forget.

 

my point is, I thought it was 72%. And if that means 28% voted for Hillary and 3rd party, well, I don’t think getting to 30% for Biden seems all that unreasonable. At all. But that depends if I’m remembering the stats from earlier in this thread correctly. 

I was going with Ghost.  And really I was pushing back against the idea that he gets to 35. I call that no fucking way zone, or, conversely, I'm way more wrong about this election than I think- and I already am predicting a bigger Biden victory than almost anyone on here. But MOCO at 35% is getting into Biden by 12 or 14 percent nationally. I just don't believe it.  I have it at something like 52-44-4 and Biden winning all the Obama states from 2008 minus Indiana.  Something like that.  

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48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- that's why I wanted to know what Ghost was worried about with the Montgomery County numbers.  It's just a drop in the bucket and not indicative of anything else I don't think.  
Harris is really really really energized compared to El Paso and some of the northern counties. 

Could the George Floyd have been the catalyst to ramp up Harris County?

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19 minutes ago, UTHornFan014 said:

This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't vote until 10/31 or later?

 

Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i just asked this same question on the pinned voter thread. my card says valid from: 10/24/2020, and i was wondering if that means i have to wait until then to vote early?

I'm not 100% sure on this but I think that is correct, you have to wait until the date it gives you. Give the county registrar a call and they can answer for sure, but I think the rule is 30 days after you register you are eligible to vote, not before.

 

Edit: Found this "Your voter registration becomes effective 30 days after it is submitted (and accepted*) by the county voter registrar. "

Edited by thepop
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Just now, NIUHuskies said:

Could the George Floyd have been the catalyst to ramp up Harris County?

Man I don't think so at all. I think a lot of it is Harris county is booming in population growth, they are really making an effort to GOTV early, and Harris had the largest opportunity for growth due to size and starting from the bottom of a hole. 

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:
County [34] Trump Trump % Clinton Clinton % Johnson Johnson % Stein Stein % Others Others % Total
                       
Montgomery 150,314 73.46% 45,835 22.40% 6,142 3.00% 1,018 0.50% 1,323 0.65% 204,632

Yeah man. I can see biden pushing 30 there. He’ll get some converts, he’ll get most of the independents. The counter is if turnout is way higher in MOCO and there’s an Election Day red wave. But 30% isn’t crazy talk. But 35% likely is as Wulaw said.

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2 hours ago, Lobo said:

I lived in Northern California (NE Bay) for a couple years .  It's simply too beautiful to want to leave (surrounded by San Francisco, Yosemite, and Lake Tahoe all within a short drive is just the tits mcgee).  And the cost of living, while painful, wasn't all that bad---then again I wasn't in those crazy high brackets.  But the people are an absolute fucking beating.  It's like being on Surly...except that it's real...it's 24 hours/day...and you're usually sober.  

Anyway, what were we talking about?  Surprised to see Travis County is at a bit of an uptick on early voting but nothing compared to the other 5 big counties.  Any theories as to why?  Nevermind, we'll have more data in a few hours here.  

It sucks that I read this as Trump's Yo, Semite

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What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

Edited by BradInATX
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I also would like to see the numbers happening on the other counties on the I 35 belt. Does Biden cut into the margins in Comal and Guadalupe Counties due to SA growth? Does the margins shrink in Bell and McClellan counties due to an engaged African American voting body?

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3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I just spoke with my mother in Georgetown. She said she wanted to vote by mail but when she called the city to ask how they said she has to be 65 or older.  I told her that’s wrong but she insists that’s what she was told. 
suppression attempt or moron city employee using the old rules?

So you're mom's not over 65?

Pics?

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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

Make no mistake -- there IS some of that.  The question is how many of them.

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

or thousands of Pepperbrookseses

we all have our own version of that nightmare

tenor.gif?itemid=12849427

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8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What if this huge voter turnout is a red wave made up of younger rural/exurban Yeti-sticker-on-their-truck types who were previously disengaged politically, but have fully jumped onto Trumpism as a lifestyle and repudiation of big city values?

Terrifying.

Then we look into relocating to Costa Rica. 

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I really fucking hate those Montgomery County numbers.

Others explained a lot more, but I have relatives out there, and there's been a lot of folks moving out that way.

When we visit, yeah, it's a lot of Trumpers, but chances are they were all motivated to get out and vote the first day they could.  You get out in those little semi-rural neighborhoods where people are living on half-acres or more, and they all have their golf carts, and it's Trump-central.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump's % drop in Montgomery County, just like it will drop in places like Williamson County.  Too many people of both sides moving out there, to get out of the city or whatever.  

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