Jump to content

2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread


tx 3 putt

Recommended Posts

It’s almost like we should have signed a good catcher and not punted on that spot. 
Hope it’s Hensley and not Dubon that gets the majority of the AB’s. 
It’s just not a big deal if he’s out the first 2 or 3 months of the season. He’s getting older. He’s played a ton of baseball every year. Him playing 100 games this year won’t be the end of the world. 
It’s a broken bone, it’s not like it’s going to hurt his long term prognosis or athleticism like tearing a ligament. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brantley won’t be ready until may / June 
I don’t think Yordan is ready until later in April 
 
Brantley will be ready in early April, no later than April 10th. Yordan could be ready earlier than that, by opening day.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Also, can Profar still play 2B? I know he didn’t at all last year but SD didn’t need him there either. I’ve kinda wanted him since Diaz left. I’d definitely prefer him to Dubon but, yeah, I know.  

 

I don't think they want to go that route but will probably use who they have on the 40 man roster. A mix of Hensley and Dubon most likely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s just not a big deal if he’s out the first 2 or 3 months of the season.

Disagree. Assuming he’s out until around Memorial Day, Altuve is probably about 2 wins better than his replacement in April-May. 2 wins matter when a division winner has to play in the wild card round. You can’t just replace a top-10 offensive player in the game with hot garbage and expect it to not matter. 

Throw in Yordan’s fucked-up hand, McCullers’s unreliability, Brantley’s shoulder/age…plus, Seattle figures to be better, the Angels still have the 2 best players in the sport (and have some upside in their rotation), etc…feels like we’re using up our margin for error right off the bat.

talk me off this ledge, @Wulaw Horn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Disagree. Assuming he’s out until around Memorial Day, Altuve is probably about 2 wins better than his replacement in April-May. 2 wins matter when a division winner has to play in the wild card round. You can’t just replace a top-10 offensive player in the game with hot garbage and expect it to not matter. 
Throw in Yordan’s fucked-up hand, McCullers’s unreliability, Brantley’s shoulder/age…plus, Seattle figures to be better, the Angels still have the 2 best players in the sport (and have some upside in their rotation), etc…feels like we’re using up our margin for error right off the bat.
talk me off this ledge, [mention=5267]Wulaw Horn[/mention].


Step off the ledge. It’s March 19.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

If we start Opening Day without Altuve, Yordan, and Uncle Mike, yeah I'm going to be a little concerned. I'd rather not start May five games back of the Mariners. 

"We know it doesn't take him long to get ready," Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown said in regards to Alvarez on March 8. "He's a fierce competitor in the batter's box. It's just a matter of him being completely healthy. Hopefully we're through the storm once he starts back swinging. I think he's had the ample rest he needs."

 

Meanwhile, outfielder Michael Brantley is not expected to be ready until early April -- with the outfielder likely to miss Opening Day, although he'll be back at No. 2 in the lineup in the very near future.

"It's going to be really close, to be there Opening Day or shortly thereafter, a week after, tops," Brown said on March 8. "We don't know where that is. I'm hoping no later than April 10 with him."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Disagree. Assuming he’s out until around Memorial Day, Altuve is probably about 2 wins better than his replacement in April-May. 2 wins matter when a division winner has to play in the wild card round. You can’t just replace a top-10 offensive player in the game with hot garbage and expect it to not matter. 

Throw in Yordan’s fucked-up hand, McCullers’s unreliability, Brantley’s shoulder/age…plus, Seattle figures to be better, the Angels still have the 2 best players in the sport (and have some upside in their rotation), etc…feels like we’re using up our margin for error right off the bat.

talk me off this ledge, @Wulaw Horn.

We are going to hit the over on my 97.5. We will be fine. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

image.gif.e176c9e5ef65dbea38e4a27372938299.gif

My man…that just became significantly less likely. 

We were talking about everything going right and winning 115. Everything isn’t going right… that’s ok. I assume he will be back by the all star break?  I said 2-3 months no sweat. If it’s all year I won’t like that. 
We are still going to be really good on the mound. We are nasty in the bullpen. We have, by my count (without Altuve and Brantley), 4 all star level hitters and 2-4 average hitters depending upon how you feel about Meyers and Hensley, with one guy with all star upside. We are fine. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We were talking about everything going right and winning 115. Everything isn’t going right… that’s ok. I assume he will be back by the all star break?  I said 2-3 months no sweat. If it’s all year I won’t like that. 
We are still going to be really good on the mound. We are nasty in the bullpen. We have, by my count (without Altuve and Brantley), 4 all star level hitters and 2-4 average hitters depending upon how you feel about Meyers and Hensley, with one guy with all star upside. We are fine. 

115? That would be like a 99.9th percentile outcome with everyone healthy all year, which already wasn’t happening (McCullers, Brantley, Yordan) even before Altuve’s thumb. A 50th percentile outcome - with everyone healthy - is probably about 95. 

The o/u on Altuve’s games played is what - 80? That’s 2.5 fewer wins. How about Yordan? 100? Another 2 or so. We’re going to assume the 5 starters aren’t going to miss a start, aren’t going to regress at all? o/u on McCullers IP - 50? So now we’re looking at more like 90  provable wins. (Yes I’m making these numbers up on the spot, but they seem like fair estimates, no?)

Each of these injuries decreases the odds and brings the probable W total down. The season outlook is much worse than it was 24 hours ago - I think that’s unarguable. Can they still win the West? Sure. Is it significantly less likely? Absolutely. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

I think you put in Dubon / chas / hennsley in the lead off spot, and leave the rest of the line up in tact (as much as possible) 

but it doesn’t matter much, we’re going to see a lot of different line ups 

it hurts losing the captain but bottom line, you’re going out there to defend our title and every one on this roster is expected to perform. Trading deadline could be interesting 

Edited by tx 3 putt
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

I think you put in Dubon / chas / hennsley in the lead off spot, and leave the rest of the line up in tact (as much as possible) 

I mean, if you want to intentionally reduce the odds of scoring runs, sure, they’re great leadoff options. It is completely irrational to give these guys the most ABs on the team. 

If you want to increase the odds of scoring runs, which I’d assume would be the goal in every single game, go with someone more likely to reach base.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

115? That would be like a 99.9th percentile outcome with everyone healthy all year, which already wasn’t happening (McCullers, Brantley, Yordan) even before Altuve’s thumb. A 50th percentile outcome - with everyone healthy - is probably about 95. 

The o/u on Altuve’s games played is what - 80? That’s 2.5 fewer wins. How about Yordan? 100? Another 2 or so. We’re going to assume the 5 starters aren’t going to miss a start, aren’t going to regress at all? o/u on McCullers IP - 50? So now we’re looking at more like 90  provable wins. (Yes I’m making these numbers up on the spot, but they seem like fair estimates, no?)

Each of these injuries decreases the odds and brings the probable W total down. The season outlook is much worse than it was 24 hours ago - I think that’s unarguable. Can they still win the West? Sure. Is it significantly less likely? Absolutely. 

 

I don’t think those are fair estimates-they seem overwhelmingly negative. There’s no reason to expect Alvarez to be limited to 100 games, for instance.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t think those are fair estimates-they seem overwhelmingly negative. There’s no reason to expect Alvarez to be limited to 100 games, for instance.
Agreed, Yordan will be ready opening day and Dana Brown seems unconcerned about his status, no reason to throw out wildly pessimistic scenarios where he misses 62 games.

Wtf.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

115? That would be like a 99.9th percentile outcome with everyone healthy all year, which already wasn’t happening (McCullers, Brantley, Yordan) even before Altuve’s thumb. A 50th percentile outcome - with everyone healthy - is probably about 95. 

The o/u on Altuve’s games played is what - 80? That’s 2.5 fewer wins. How about Yordan? 100? Another 2 or so. We’re going to assume the 5 starters aren’t going to miss a start, aren’t going to regress at all? o/u on McCullers IP - 50? So now we’re looking at more like 90  provable wins. (Yes I’m making these numbers up on the spot, but they seem like fair estimates, no?)

Each of these injuries decreases the odds and brings the probable W total down. The season outlook is much worse than it was 24 hours ago - I think that’s unarguable. Can they still win the West? Sure. Is it significantly less likely? Absolutely. 

 

We won 108 last year. Odo was significantly involved for a while. Yuli was awful at 1B I bet Altuves replacement does better. Our DH was abysmal, we had 3 boat anchors for the last half of the year. Peña was a rookie and clueless for large stretches (he didn’t get a 99 OPS+ by being solid and consistent) and maldy and Castro combined to be the worst of the worst at the catcher spot. 
we substituted JV for Brown on a 108 team win for all practical purposes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

The o/u on Altuve’s games played is what - 80?

Bryce Harper had thumb surgery to repair a broken thumb and missed two months last year.

Deep breaths, man. Altuve isn't missing half the season. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...