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The Business of Hollywood & Streaming


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15 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

my wife would watch this movie.

You still think Netflix is dead in the water (you predicted their demise in 3 years like a year ago, right?)

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Netflix adds more subscribers and increases revenue. The streaming service reported first-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, expanding its base to 270 million users. The report reflects Netflix’s solidifying dominance of the streaming industry as rivals like Disney and Paramount cut costs in an effort to compete.

And 

Netflix had another smash quarter, adding a much better-than-expected 9.3 million subscribers in Q1 as the streaming leader cracks down on password sharing and keeps churning out content.

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3 hours ago, BeardIP said:

You still think Netflix is dead in the water (you predicted their demise in 3 years like a year ago, right?)

go reread what i actually said and you’ll see that most of my prediction has already happened. their library is for shit and about half is foreign language.

they have done a nice job of picking the bones of the other suffering platforms though. 

oh, and their stock is down 50+ points today. but sure, go netflix. 

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On 2/6/2023 at 3:37 PM, henrygandorf said:

 

we had a conversation or two here when this was happening and i said netflix was fucking it up and would tank.  i also said they would eventually let their deals lapse, which they did, and their library is fuck all.  i pointed to hulu - who has deals with all the broadcast networks to air stuff the next day - solving the cord-cutting issue for many, and also has a huge library of completed shows, so it became the place to go to stream old network content that didn't live anywhere else.  hulu already knew they couldn't exist on their original material, and their partnerships with disney/fox/abc notably made it a no-brainer transition.

once shows started reverting to their original creators (mostly peacock and warners), what many predicted would happen, happened.  at the end of the day, they can't all survive, and this is a really bad time for netflix to be (1) losing shows and (2) getting serious about restricting password sharing.  it's idiotic, and my guess is they're basically gone in 3 years, or will exist on their current model, which is to buy everything not nailed down, and end up with 50%+ of their content being foreign language, because that's their one built-in advantage, they are active all over the world.

like the article said, the studios that are tied in with other monster business interests (apple, disney, amazon) will be fine.  others like nbc-universal, warners, viacom will have enough of a library to survive, but will eventually merge in one way or another.  i just don't see a path for netflix, and i'm happy to have that argument here again, since i won it handily last time.

At best you were dead wrong about password sharing crackdown, as subscribers and growth has risen on the back of that pivot. You are going to read the above and tell me that you aren’t pacing to be wrong, granted it hasn’t been 3 years?

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7 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

At best you were dead wrong about password sharing crackdown, as subscribers and growth has risen on the back of that pivot. You are going to read the above and tell me that you aren’t pacing to be wrong, granted it hasn’t been 3 years?

is this a serious post?  i said it was bad timing to crack down on it. that’s not really something that anyone can be right or wrong about, let alone dead wrong. but sure, take your victory lap, you’ve probably earned it for all your obsession. 

as for my 3 year prediction, you know what the word “or” means, right?  the second part of that sentence has already happened and it took less than a year.  

they’re a legacy streamer, which is an advantage, and other streamers are run by morons or shouldn’t have been started in the first place, which also helps them.  

in general, people are lazy. that’s why most will keep netflix despite the drop in quality or price increases, just like most olds keep cable, because that’s what they’ve always done.

the good news for netflix is that they can afford to keep making multi-billion dollar mistakes. yay. 

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

is this a serious post?  i said it was bad timing to crack down on it. that’s not really something that anyone can be right or wrong about, let alone dead wrong. but sure, take your victory lap, you’ve probably earned it for all your obsession. 

as for my 3 year prediction, you know what the word “or” means, right?  the second part of that sentence has already happened and it took less than a year.  

they’re a legacy streamer, which is an advantage, and other streamers are run by morons or shouldn’t have been started in the first place, which also helps them.  

in general, people are lazy. that’s why most will keep netflix despite the drop in quality or price increases, just like most olds keep cable, because that’s what they’ve always done.

the good news for netflix is that they can afford to keep making multi-billion dollar mistakes. yay. 

You called the password sharing crackdown idiotic. At the time to be fair that wasn’t that spicy of a take, but in hindsight how can you not admit that (as of now) it was a fantastic (and low calorie) move to add subscriptions?

Also I haven’t googled it, but count me surprised that Netflix is now 50% foreign language full of other peoples IP and very little original content. 

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1 minute ago, BeardIP said:

Also I haven’t googled it, but count me surprised that Netflix is now 50% foreign language full of other peoples IP and very little original content. 

guessing you don’t spend much time on the platform. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

2 developments worth mentioning in the streaming biz. Netflix and the NFL are supposedly about to announce that 2 xmas day games will be shown on Netflix. Supposedly exclusive.

Also in an effort to "stop the churn," build up a bigger audience to make Hulu more appealing to advertisers, and to better compete with Netflix, Max/Hbo has given Hulu permission to sell it as a bundle together with Hulu and Disney. Price points not announced

https://press.disneyplus.com/disney-entertainment-and-warner-bros-discovery-announce-disney-plus-hulu-max-bundle

Impact on me is no big deal. Hulu mostly sucks. I have it free through Amex and rarely watch it. Dgaf about Marvel, and one or two months of subscription per year is enough to watch what I'd want to see on hbo.

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I have the Disney bundle with ESPN but still can’t access ESPN college football unless I buy ESPN + 

dicks 

You can only get certain games on ESPN+ and they're probably not games you want to watch. You don't get ESPN games with ESPN+. Not yet at least. That's coming from Disney but not till 2025. 

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On 4/22/2024 at 11:23 AM, BeardIP said:

Cost cutting is profitable is what this tell us.

 

On 4/22/2024 at 1:46 PM, WBT said:

Maybe that's what it tells you.  It tells me corporate governance is all fucked up.

 

On 4/22/2024 at 1:49 PM, BeardIP said:

Agreed. Total hate the game, not the playa type thing.

Would you be up in arms if the government cracked down on corporate regulations though? 

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5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I have the Disney bundle with ESPN but still can’t access ESPN college football unless I buy ESPN + 

dicks 

 

3 hours ago, mdmost said:

You can only get certain games on ESPN+ and they're probably not games you want to watch. You don't get ESPN games with ESPN+. Not yet at least. That's coming from Disney but not till 2025. 

I've got Disney+ and Hulu/ESPN+ on two different subs.  Last I checked, I don't think I can graft Hulu/ESPN+ onto Disney+ without killing both subs and starting over.  It's dumb.

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6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

I've got Disney+ and Hulu/ESPN+ on two different subs.  Last I checked, I don't think I can graft Hulu/ESPN+ onto Disney+ without killing both subs and starting over.  It's dumb.

I have Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ all separate. Hulu and ESPN+ are month to month. Disney+ just renewed another year. It's annoying as I would rather just save money all of them. 

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You can “upgrade” to one of the bundles. I did just that. My portion for d+ is annual, while the portion for hulu/espn+ is monthly.

Would save more switching those to annual as well, but at least saving some over individually. 

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

 

Would you be up in arms if the government cracked down on corporate regulations though? 

Probably.  I see the problem as shareholders allowing ceos to pack boards with their cronies and often serves as their own chairman.

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Toy Story 5. Really? Fonzi waterskiing out front shoulda told us.

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Pixar made the biggest staff cut in its history. The Disney-owned animation studio laid off 14% of its workforce, or 175 employees, as part of an effort to cut costs and refocus on quality over quantity, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The mandate comes from Disney CEO Bob Iger, who hopes to shepherd the Mouse House to its former glory after a period of churning out several underwhelming direct-to-streaming series and movies. Following the layoffs, Pixar plans to prioritize upcoming feature films like Inside Out 2 and Toy Story 5 over streaming.

 

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17 hours ago, mdmost said:

Yea and I was hearing on the radio that, despite good anticipation for like Furiousa and is Dune 2 coming out or something? Either way, they don't expect a billion dollar summer blockbuster movie this summer for the first time in a long time.

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So, where are we now?  Two pretty big disappointments this month.  I know the easy targets are the youths, but it seems like it's really the lack of adults going to movies.  Take a look at the winners over the last 6 months (Anyone But You, Wonka, Kung Fu Panda 4, GxK, Apes) and they are all targeted at a younger audience.  Even something like Challengers got a ton of buzz just for being a Zendaya movie.  On the other hand, movies that are aimed at adults, like Furiosa and The Fall Guy are struggling.  Adults just aren't motivated to go out (find a sitter, etc) when they know they can stay home and watch it in a month.  It seems like an inversion of what would be expected.  

Dune is a little bit of a special case as it is a continuation of a big movie, long standing IP and has some massive young stars.  It brings in people of all types.

I guess we'll see what happens over the summer, but it doesn't look promising for the "adult" movies out there.

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9 hours ago, Stringer said:

On the other hand, movies that are aimed at adults, like Furiosa and The Fall Guy are struggling.  Adults just aren't motivated to go out (find a sitter, etc) when they know they can stay home and watch it in a month.  It seems like an inversion of what would be expected.


If they want grown-ups to go to the movies, then maybe they should make something good instead of all the remakes that mostly shit all over beloved, classic movies from our past.

The other part is dealing with the sort of people they do attract, who tend to be on their phones/talking most of the time.

 

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2 hours ago, thunderlounge said:


If they want grown-ups to go to the movies, then maybe they should make something good instead of all the remakes that mostly shit all over beloved, classic movies from our past.

The other part is dealing with the sort of people they do attract, who tend to be on their phones/talking most of the time.

 

I went to see the Fall Guy at an alamo in austin and my god is it expensive af these days. I'd honestly rather pay 20 bucks to rent it on my oled and watch it at home then go to the theater much anymore. I might go see Twisters though but that's about it. I buy 4k blu rays and they look and sound outstanding most of the time. I used to go to the theater many times per year abut I've gone once or twice so far this year. I don't think that's gonna change for me.

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Theatre prices are ridiculous and home TV setups get better by the day.  The movie experience adds value, but not enough.  Rent at home $20-$25 and a few bucks for popcorn and drinks.  Go to the theatre as a family 50-60 tickets and another 40 in popcorn and drinks.  It's an easy choice.  If it's a movie that nobody else in my family has any interest in, I occasionally will go to the theatre by myself, but fuck trying to go as a family. 

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2 hours ago, Deej said:

Maybe with the cost of everything having gone up, a night out at the movies isn't fitting in a lot of peoples budgets?

You’d think with declining attendance the exhibitors would reduce prices or do more to offer a superlative experience (and there’s been efforts on the latter), but it mostly appears they, like pro sports, price themselves out of young people’s reach and never get adopted as a result.  

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Just now, LCHorn said:

 

You’d think with declining attendance the exhibitors would reduce prices or do more to offer a superlative experience (and there’s been efforts on the latter), but it mostly appears they, like pro sports, price themselves out of young people’s reach and never get adopted as a result.  

They price themselves out of the old people's reach. If I go to an event and a beer is $14, I'm not buying a single beer. If they were $7, I'd get two, and then probably decide a need a few more. 

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7 minutes ago, Deej said:

They price themselves out of the old people's reach. If I go to an event and a beer is $14, I'm not buying a single beer. If they were $7, I'd get two, and then probably decide a need a few more. 

Well, if you can’t tell they quit programming for you a long time ago.  That’s why the “one man army” movies starring (take your pick) Chris Pratt, Michael B Jordan, or Hemsworth are going direct to streaming.

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28 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

 

You’d think with declining attendance the exhibitors would reduce prices or do more to offer a superlative experience (and there’s been efforts on the latter), but it mostly appears they, like pro sports, price themselves out of young people’s reach and never get adopted as a result.  

Enshittening.  They seek the most possible short term revenue they can get, at the expense of everything long term.

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7 hours ago, Parliament said:

Enshittening.  They seek the most possible short term revenue they can get, at the expense of everything long term.

Almost as if the system were set up to reward such behavior. Perhaps every three months. 

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21 hours ago, Gene Parmesan said:

Theatre prices are ridiculous and home TV setups get better by the day.  The movie experience adds value, but not enough.  Rent at home $20-$25 and a few bucks for popcorn and drinks.  Go to the theatre as a family 50-60 tickets and another 40 in popcorn and drinks.  It's an easy choice.  If it's a movie that nobody else in my family has any interest in, I occasionally will go to the theatre by myself, but fuck trying to go as a family. 

image.png.e715faf7ddb04ac51533046a34412355.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

An interesting read on A24 and how at some point you become the thing you were trying to disrupt:

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The beloved film studio made a name for itself with low-budget, high-volume, auteur-driven movies. But after a few box office misses, outside investments, and bigger ambitions, there’s a big question:

Can the indie darling maintain its identity as it expands?

When Cord Jefferson won his 2024 Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, he dropped a line about Hollywood that went viral:

“Instead of making one $200 million, try making twenty $10 million movies.”

Ironically, that’s the model for Tyler Perry Studios, which was not-so-subtlety critiqued in Jefferson’s film, American Fiction.

But that has also been the A24 model for over a decade. A24 gave us Hereditary, Moonlight, and Everything, Everywhere, All At Once, and more. Hit after hit. But after a sluggish stretch in 2023 and an influx of outside capital, the indie darling faces pressure to become more like the companies it once distinguished itself from.

A24 now wants to produce bigger-budget films that can command more dollars at the box office attendance. It also wants to acquire popular IP-based projects, like its rumored interest in the Halloween franchise.

The ambitions are understandable. Those investors who got in A24 at a $2.5 billion valuation want to see a return from their $225 million investment. And it’s harder to do that with films from a studio that has yet to generate $225 million in box office revenue from a single movie.

Changes are inevitable. Can the beloved indie darling maintain its energy along the way?

The path that A24 is on isn't uncommon. It works like clockwork, especially in media and tech. Here’s the flow:

An upstart company notices a gap in the market and embraces new tech trends to address it

It solves the problem successfully and profitably, yet at a much smaller scale than the incumbents

As the indie grows, it faces pressure to expand due to economic trends, rising costs, market, or regulatory changes

It feels pressure (internal and external) to scale

It eventually gets acquired by an incumbent and evolves into a clone of the incumbent, losing its unique edge

This happens in the music business often. Look at the individual labels and companies owned by Universal, Sony, and Warner Music Groups. The logos on those pages are full of brands that started as unique standalone entities with distinct brands and genres.

It’s not that those companies lacked the skills or patience to break through. They lacked the major label’s moat— their back catalog of valuable music, that provides cost and resource advantages that well-funded upstarts can struggle to surpass. If you can’t beat em, join em.

Hollywood has had its own examples of this. Miramax, which was acquired by Disney in 1993, faced ongoing tension with its parent company until the founders left the business.

For A24 to expand and scale without diminishing its brand, it needs to acquire an IP that fits its brand ethos.

Halloween makes perfect sense, and there are plenty of other good horror fits too. A24 could revamp one of the campier IP stories. Sony is reportedly planning on another sequel for I Know What You Did Last Summer. The original was a classic “not good but peak 90s nostalgia” movie that was popular enough for a sequel at the time. What would an A24 version look like? There are plenty of franchises where that came from.

A24 and Hollywood are similar. A24 wants bigger budgets, IPs, and franchises. The major film studios want to fight franchise fatigue with lesser-known IP and original stories.

Despite the tradeoffs for both sides, they face the same post-pandemic challenges in theaters:

A movie being “good” isn’t enough to generate box office returns

Due to streaming, beloved movies that are box office misses rarely get the same second life in DVD or VHS sales that they once did

People aren't showing up in droves to the box office unless it’s an event movie.

Sure, there are exceptions. The Northman (2022) did quite well in on-demand sales, deservedly so. But that’s not the norm. Well-reviewed 2024 movies like The Fall Guy and Furiosa will have to hope for similar on-demand success given their big budgets, massive marketing spends, and tepid ticket sales.

Despite the challenges, I believe that A24 will figure this out. This is a hit-driven business. All it takes is one or two big hits, especially if those hits are from bigger swings. It won’t be easy, but the opportunities are out there.

 

 

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Theatre prices are ridiculous and home TV setups get better by the day.  The movie experience adds value, but not enough.  Rent at home $20-$25 and a few bucks for popcorn and drinks.  Go to the theatre as a family 50-60 tickets and another 40 in popcorn and drinks.  It's an easy choice.  If it's a movie that nobody else in my family has any interest in, I occasionally will go to the theatre by myself, but fuck trying to go as a family. 

Red Letter Media talked about this in their recent video. When you go to the movies, each individual person has to pay the full price. When you rent at home, you pay 5-10-25 dollars but a dozen people can sit and watch. That’s a tough model to overcome.

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Posted (edited)

Who had Will Smith on the bingo card for being the savior of Hollywood 2024 post-Oscars slap?

Quote

Whatcha gonna do? Go see Bad Boys 4, apparently. The Will Smith flick became the first summer debut to outperform box office expectations, making $56m in the US and $104.6m globally.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/will-smith-bad-boys-4-box-office-opening-victory-1235918123/

The Hollywood Reporter learned that Smith’s agents at CAA have been calling studio production execs in recent weeks for the first time since the slap to explore possible projects, with the hope that the actor’s next film can be announced quickly after the release of Ride or Die, should it perform.

Edited by BeardIP
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I was considering going to the movies this weekend because it was so hot, and just wanting to "get out."

Nothing there. Bad Boys 4? Meh.

And I can't even remember what else was in the theater. Maybe hangover from the writer's strike, but it looks to be a shitty summer for movie-going.

Hopefully Deadpool/Wolverine is good. Horizon maybe.

I'd definitely prefer to see those in a movie theater experience vs. home theater. 

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