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Colorado at tcu - 11am on Fox


Pancho

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23 minutes ago, redswingline said:

Reading comprehension isn't your strong point is it?

A fan board and social media doesn't qualify as "reputable media".

You're not paying attention. Tom Luginbil said they'd be 1-11 reputable media all over thought they wouldnt be shit.  Theyre lack of depth will ultimately be their downfall but Deion is fucking coach regardless of the flash. 

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4 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

You're not paying attention. Tom Luginbil said they'd be 1-11 reputable media all over thought they wouldnt be shit.  Theyre lack of depth will ultimately be their downfall but Deion is fucking coach regardless of the flash. 

Yup, and lots of the boys on the college football podcasts that people here tout said they’d maybe win 3-4 games. 

@redswingline knows this. He’s just being stupid right now for some dumbass reason. 

I’m not saying Colorado is going to win the Big 12 this year, but many in “reputable media” had them getting blown out this game and only winning 1-4 games overall this season. 

Edited by Pancho
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4 minutes ago, redswingline said:

Since you don't even know what conference the Buffs play in, I say let's move on..

 

Christ, how dumb are you. 

They are moving to the big 12 next year with the other P12 schools. It was a joke about how this game is going to be a conference game next year…

 

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2 hours ago, Pancho said:

I’m not saying Colorado is going to win the Big 12 this year, but many in “reputable media” had them getting blown out this game and only winning 1-4 games overall this season. 

I think the bigger point is a lot of people drastically overvalued TCU. 

They weren't a 13-2 caliber team last year even though that was their record. Throw in all the production lost and a new OC, that's not anywhere close to a top-20 team. 

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Have we thought for a second that maybe TCU just kind of sucks?  They're trotting out Chandler Morris for God's sake and Rapey McBriles is calling plays like he's playing video games.

Both things can be true. 

Colorado isn't a 1 or 2 win team (like a lot people predicted) and TCU isn't a top-20 team. That's how you get a 20 point favorite losing at home. 

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I think the bigger point is a lot of people drastically overvalued TCU. 
They weren't a 13-2 caliber team last year even though that was their record. Throw in all the production lost and a new OC, that's not anywhere close to a top-20 team. 

I hate tcu but their record was 13-2 so that is who they were. They were the 180 of Nebraska. Good teams win the one score games, bad teams lose them. To take that away from tcu is just being ignorant about college football.
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5 minutes ago, markstanco said:


I hate tcu but their record was 13-2 so that is who they were. They were the 180 of Nebraska. Good teams win the one score games, bad teams lose them. To take that away from tcu is just being ignorant about college football.

Luck plays a huge role in 1 score games. 

No matter how good a team plays in one score games, winning at a 88% clip in those type games is not sustainable. It's why Herman was always doomed for failure. It wasn't about being "good or bad" in one score games it was about putting yourself within the range of luck playing a huge factor in determining outcomes. 

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1 minute ago, markstanco said:


I hate tcu but their record was 13-2 so that is who they were. They were the 180 of Nebraska. Good teams win the one score games, bad teams lose them. To take that away from tcu is just being ignorant about college football.

All of those wins meant nothing. They didn't even win the conference. Then they got smashed by Georgia in the worst MNC loss in history. There's no banner going up on their stadium for the wins, unless they are going to pull an aggy and make up a conference title or something.

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31 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Have we thought for a second that maybe TCU just kind of sucks?  They're trotting out Chandler Morris for God's sake and Rapey McBriles is calling plays like he's playing video games.

It doesn’t take anything away from how dreadful Colorado was last year and what a job turning things around Deion has done. 

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5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

There was an article/study of one-score games in the NFL a few years ago. Almost every year after a team won a bunch of one-score games they regressed toward the mean the following season.

Absolutely. I sometimes wonder if the data would be useful for betting on CFB.

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5 minutes ago, redswingline said:

Absolutely. I sometimes wonder if the data would be useful for betting on CFB.

I had this same discussion about Herman. You don't want a coach that's "good at winning close games." That's a myth when luck is involved. 

Look at all the powerhouse programs over the years (Bama, Georgia, Ohio State). They don't become powerhouses by winning "one-score games" they do it by avoiding luck and blowing teams out. 

 

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3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, I didn't watch the game.

But my thoughts all along were that this is probably more about Spike without Max Duggan and some of the other magical pieces from last year than anything else.

Sonny had him second string last year until Morris got hurt-talk about catching lightning in a bottle.  The loss of experience and leadership from the team that got to the MNC game really showed up, but the most impressive thing about yesterday is the fact that Colorado put a team on the field that still hasn't learned each other's names yet and ripped the Frogs a new one in front of the largest crowd in Amon Carter stadium history. 

Edited by pch
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13 hours ago, markstanco said:


I hate tcu but their record was 13-2 so that is who they were. They were the 180 of Nebraska. Good teams win the one score games, bad teams lose them. To take that away from tcu is just being ignorant about college football.

This is such a classic stanco post. Just dead wrong in every way. When projecting how good a team will be the next year, you absolutely have to factor in things like point differential and record in one score games to determine how good they actually were.

The good teams win close games lines is utter bullshit. Good teams don’t get caught in a bunch of one score games. Lucky teams win close games and it’s not replicable. 

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My takeaway from this game is that it’s my hope that the Patterson defensive culture is finally out of TCU’s fabric and that Dykes is turning them into cal and smu where they give up 50 points a game. Last year there was still holdover defensively…as well as a 100th year qb and a some talent on offense that’s not there. 

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48 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, I didn't watch the game.

But my thoughts all along were that this is probably more about Spike without Max Duggan and some of the other magical pieces from last year than anything else.

How would you define success this year for Colorado?

TCU could be even worse than people are rationalizing them to be and still whipped last year’s Colorado team. What Sanders engineered at Jacksonville State wasn’t a fluke and the impact he’s had at Colorado is real. That was a huge statement win on the road in game 1. It doesn’t mean they’re going to compete for a national championship or even a PAC-12 championship. But it serves notice, to recruits most especially, that, in Coach Prime’s words, “We coming.” Times are changing.

Next up: Nebraska comes to Boulder. Are you betting against the Butfs? They’re now favored in that game. Then they face Colorado State. They could start the season 3-0.

I’d say it’s very likely that Colorado is going bowling this year and no matter how much anyone may try to trivialize yesterday’s win by dismissing TCU, the Sanders era at CU is off to a resounding start. If they go to a bowl game this year and prove themselves a team to be taken seriously even in games where they’re outclassed, there’s no way you can’t call that a success. The recruits will see it that way and they’ll come. In terms of a rebuild, no one could ask for a better start. Poo poo it all you want but the recruits will take notice. I’ll bet there will be a lot of them in the stadium on Saturday. The CU fans will be excited and Nebraska fans travel well. That should be a great atmosphere. 

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2 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

The good teams win close games lines is utter bullshit. Good teams don’t get caught in a bunch of one score games. Lucky teams win close games and it’s not replicable. 

So much this. 

It annoyed me to always read "Herman isn't a good coach because he can't win close games." Nah, he was a bad coach because he was always in close games which allowed luck to determine outcomes. 

 

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22 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

So much this. 

It annoyed me to always read "Herman isn't a good coach because he can't win close games." Nah, he was a bad coach because he was always in close games which allowed luck to determine outcomes. 

Since the start of the 2021 season, Nebraska is 2-14 in games decided by one score. Is it just bad luck that so many outcomes went against them? If it was just luck, wouldn’t the split be closer to 50/50?

No. It’s true that better teams, and better coaches, fare better in close games because they keep their cool and don’t panic or make mistakes under pressure. Clock management, play calling and execution, whether to punt or go for it on 4th down, ball security, etc. There are a lot of ways that coaching and discipline separate the good teams from the not-so-good teams when the game is on the line. It’s not just luck. 

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2 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

How would you define success this year for Colorado?

TCU could be even worse than people are rationalizing them to be and still whipped last year’s Colorado team. What Sanders engineered at Jacksonville State wasn’t a fluke and the impact he’s had at Colorado is real. That was a huge statement win on the road in game 1. It doesn’t mean they’re going to compete for a national championship or even a PAC-12 championship. But it serves notice, to recruits most especially, that, in Coach Prime’s words, “We coming.” Times are changing.

Next up: Nebraska comes to Boulder. Are you betting against the Butfs? They’re now favored in that game. Then they face Colorado State. They could start the season 3-0.

I’d say it’s very likely that Colorado is going bowling this year and no matter how much anyone may try to trivialize yesterday’s win by dismissing TCU, the Sanders era at CU is off to a resounding start. If they go to a bowl game this year and prove themselves a team to be taken seriously even in games where they’re outclassed, there’s no way you can’t call that a success. The recruits will see it that way and they’ll come. In terms of a rebuild, no one could ask for a better start. Poo poo it all you want but the recruits will take notice. I’ll bet there will be a lot of them in the stadium on Saturday. The CU fans will be excited and Nebraska fans travel well. That should be a great atmosphere. 

I don't really have an opinion on CU.  I am sort of vested in the notion of TCU returning to earth after last year.

Not really for or against Neon Deion, either.  Talented dude, no question.  Bit of a glory guts for my taste, but whatever.

On the notion of a black coach succeeding at high level CFB, all for it.

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4 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Since the start of the 2021 season, Nebraska is 2-14 in games decided by one score. Is it just bad luck that so many outcomes went against them? If it was just luck, wouldn’t the split be closer to 50/50?

There are a lot of ways that coaching and discipline separate the good teams from the not-so-good teams when the game is on the line. It’s not just luck. 

It will definitely end up closer to a 50/50 split with more games. Also, that's how luck works. It doesn't always work in your favor or against you. That's why you try to avoid it because it's unpredictable.

What separates the good teams from the not-so-good teams is winning by big margins where a bad call, a bad bounce, a late injury, etc don't impact the outcome. Like I said above, the powerhouse programs over the years don't win a lot of close games. They blow out teams and avoid "lucky" or "unlucky" situations from influencing outcomes. 

 

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2 minutes ago, C-Man said:


Yes

Thought so. Well that isn’t preparation, it isn’t effort, and it isn’t great in-game situational coaching or execution.  It’s luck that the entirety of the game became easier- against half of the conference schedule. 

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51 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I am sort of vested in the notion of TCU returning to earth after last year.

I think that’s a common sentiment here. For obvious reasons. And it’s a common response to practically every early season upset; just how good was the losing team anyway? That’s one of the great things about college football. Every team develops differently and we get to fill in a little more of the picture every week. So we won’t know how good either team really is until we see how the season plays out.

But clearly there are posters here who are inclined to conclude that TCU lost because they suck, not because Colorado is good. That way the Frogs aren’t a threat. In fact there’s a tendency among some to say that TCU really wasn’t that good last year. They just got lucky. That’s easy to understand.

I don’t know what the realistic expectations were for TCU this year. I think everyone would agree that Colorado has at least met the most optimistic expectations for the opening game and exceeded all reasonable expectations. And if TCU didn’t live up to their expectations, I think it would be unfair not to give Colorado some credit for that. They came and smacked TCU in the mouth and the Frogs looked like they weren’t expecting it. We”ll just have to wait and see how both teams respond. I’m looking forward to finding out. The start of the Coach Prime era in Boulder is going to be a fun storyline to follow this year. 

Edited by WhatTheBuck
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