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Israel-Hamas war thread


Brisketexan

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Following Surly's strict "surf OR turf, not surf AND turf" rule.

And thereby avoiding the dangers that result from combining surf AND turf:

image.png.873990ed965b65361b76f137c564943c.png

 

Edited by utee94
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35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Following Surly's strict "surf OR turf, not surf AND turf" rule.

I looked at it like one was Israel & Hamas and the other was the US and Iran (with some overlap).

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5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

We do our death spirals out on the ledge in these parts.  Come on over.  We have comfy chairs, whiskey, and we really, really, really dig Sela Ward.  But there's room for other tastes.  Maybe you dig on some other gorgeous brunette, and you're more of a beer fella.  It's all good.  So long as you think that humanity is embarking on another bout of "let's try multiple fascist states and nationalism-fueled wars that can engulf an entire continent for the third time in just over 100 years," you've got the credentials.

I'll have a Redbreast and Ana de Armas, please.

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32 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Peter Zeihan brought up Kharg Island as a potential target for retaliation. It's in the Persian Gulf near Bushehr. It handles almost all Iranian oil that is exported.

What is the general fear regarding escalation? If it is oil prices and the world economy, then hitting Kharg Island seems like a poor choice. If it is because Saudi Arabia and UAE don't want to get involved, hitting Kharg Island seems problematic as well.  If it is because we want to wait until the Israel Hamas conflict is over, I don't get it: Even if the Israel Hamas conflict was over, any attack on Iran would immediately lead to a Hezbollah attack on Israel.

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2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Peter Zeihan brought up Kharg Island as a potential target for retaliation. It's in the Persian Gulf near Bushehr. It handles almost all Iranian oil that is exported.

"Kharg Island" sounds like the name of a proposed detailed, kickass GI Joe/Cobra playset that never got built.  I bet it woulda been awesome.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"Kharg Island" sounds like the name of a proposed detailed, kickass GI Joe/Cobra playset that never got built.  I bet it woulda been awesome.

Pretty sure that was a location scene from Monarch on Apple TV.

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

What is the general fear regarding escalation? If it is oil prices and the world economy, then hitting Kharg Island seems like a poor choice. If it is because Saudi Arabia and UAE don't want to get involved, hitting Kharg Island seems problematic as well.  If it is because we want to wait until the Israel Hamas conflict is over, I don't get it: Even if the Israel Hamas conflict was over, any attack on Iran would immediately lead to a Hezbollah attack on Israel.

Basically that your options for retaliation aren't great. One, you can hit the Shi'ite militias that are fairly disposable to Iran and that Iran can just regenerate with minimal effort. Two, you can hit facilities in Iran that likely only further Iran's resolve to continue escalations. We also likely cant hit stuff thats overly critical. Three, you can hit them economically. It'll hurt Iran and China most of all, but also hurts your allies and economy by pushing up energy prices (Europe).

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4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Basically that your options for retaliation aren't great. One, you can hit the Shi'ite militias that are fairly disposable to Iran and that Iran can just regenerate with minimal effort. Two, you can hit facilities in Iran that likely only further Iran's resolve to continue escalations. We also likely cant hit stuff thats overly critical. Three, you can hit them economically. It'll hurt Iran and China most of all, but also hurts your allies and economy by pushing up energy prices (Europe).

Nuke college station to send a message 

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Looks like Iran is trying to de-escalate.

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The Kata’ib Hezbollah militia says it will stop attacks, hinting at pressure from Iran and Iraq.

In a surprise move, an Iran-linked militia in Iraq that the Pentagon said was likely responsible for a lethal drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan over the weekend announced on Tuesday that it was suspending military operations in Iraq under pressure from the Iraqi government and from Iran.

The announcement came shortly after President Biden said that he had decided how to respond to the attack in Jordan on Sunday that left three U.S. soldiers dead, though he did not say what that response would be. His comment raised fears in Iraq about a possibly retaliatory U.S. attack on its territory.

The militia, Kata’ib Hezbollah, or Brigades of the Party of God, is the largest and most established of the Iran-linked groups operating in Iraq. It has spearheaded a majority of the some 160 attacks on U.S. military installations in Iraq and Syria that have occurred since Israel began its ground operations in Gaza, acting in response to the Oct. 7 attack Hamas led from the enclave.

The U.S. military has about 2,500 troops in Iraq advising and training the Iraqi Army and about 900 in Syria, supporting the Kurdish Syrian Defense forces in their fight against the Islamic State.

Kata’ib Hezbollah is part of what is known as the Axis of Resistance, a network of Iran-backed groups operating in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and occasionally farther afield. (Kata’ib Hezbollah is separate from the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.)

The other two Iraqi groups that are believed to have been involved in strikes U.S. targets — Harakat al Nujaba and Sayyid Shuhada — have not announced they will halt attacks.

The leader of Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, said in a statement: “We announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces — in order to prevent embarrassment to the Iraqi government.” It was the first time that the militia had publicly declared a suspension of operations.

The statement made clear that Iran had pressured the group to stop the attacks on U.S. troops and that Kata’ib Hezbollah was not happy about it. The group made a point of suggesting that it chooses its own targets and timing, rather than following Iran’s orders.

“Our brothers in the Axis, especially in the Islamic Republic of Iran, they do not know how we conduct our Jihad, and they often object to the pressure and escalation against the American occupation forces in Iraq and Syria,” the statement said.

Asked about Kata’ib Hezbollah’s announcement, a Defense Department spokesman, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, said at a Pentagon briefing: “I don’t have a specific comment to provide other than actions speak louder than words.”

He added: “I’m going to refrain from editorializing on those kinds of comments after 160-plus attacks against U.S. forces.”

Interviews with Iraqi and Iranian officials close to both governments suggest that there were intensive negotiations in recent days aimed at pushing Kata’ib Hezbollah to stop its attacks.

Iraq’s prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, started pushing for a halt several weeks ago, according to senior government advisers. He was endeavoring to start negotiations on an eventual withdrawal of the U.S.-led international military presence in Iraq, but the American side had not wanted to negotiate while under fire, according to Iraqi and U.S. officials.

The United States eventually did agree to start talks without a guarantee the attacks would stop, but with a clear push in that direction.

Kata’ib Hezbollah and other groups had ignored the Iraqi government’s request to stand down, but once the attack in Jordan on Sunday took American lives, Mr. Sudani demanded a complete halt from Kata’ib Hezbollah. Mr. Sudani reached out directly to Iran, according to a military strategist for the Revolutionary Guards who works closely with the Axis groups in Iraq.

Mr. Sudani made the argument that he was trying to negotiate what Iran most wanted — to end the U.S. troop presence in Iraq — and that Kata’ib Hezbollah’s attacks were undermining his government’s ability to do so, according to the Iranian military strategist and a senior Iraqi official, who spoke anonymously to discuss private negotiations.

An Iraqi government spokesman, Hisham al-Rikabi, painted much the same picture. “Kata’ib Hezbollah’s decision came as a result of the action taken by the prime minister internally and externally, to prevent escalation, and to ensure the smooth completion of negotiations on completing the process of the international coalition’s withdrawal from Iraq,” he said.

Mr. al-Rikabi added: “We hope that all parties will listen to the government’s call in order to reduce tension and ensure that there are no hot spots of tension in the region, and in Iraq in particular.”

Involved in the negotiations were senior officials in Mr. Sudani’s government who are close to Iran, according to Iraqi and Iranian officials close to their respective government leaders. Among those involved in the negotiations were former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and the leaders of two armed groups that have not targeted U.S. forces: Qais al-Khazali and Hadi al-Ameri. Participating in the talks on the Iranian side was Gen. Esmail Qaani, the leader of the Quds Force, a division of the Revolutionary Guards that works with Axis groups outside Iran.

 

 

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Iran is ‘not looking for war,’ the head of the Revolutionary Guards says.

The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday that Tehran was “not looking for war,” appearing to signal that it would not escalate tensions with the United States. But he also warned that Iran was prepared to respond if attacked.

“We hear threatening words from American officials,” Gen. Hossein Salami, the chief commander of the powerful military organization, was quoted as saying by Iranian state news media. “You have tested us and we know each other — we will not leave any threat unanswered.”

The comments came after President Biden said on Tuesday that he had decided on a U.S. response to the weekend drone attack that killed three American soldiers and injured more than 40 others at a remote military outpost in Jordan. The United States has said that an Iranian-backed militia was behind the attack, the deadliest of more than 160 such strikes targeting American forces in the Middle East since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in October.

Mr. Biden did not specify what the U.S. response would be. Some Republican lawmakers have urged him to attack Iran directly, although Mr. Biden emphasized again on Tuesday that he was determined to avoid a broader regional conflict, telling reporters: “I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East.”

In an apparent sign that Iran was trying to tamp down tensions, Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful regional militias linked to Iran, and the one the Pentagon says was most likely responsible for the deadly attack in Jordan, made the surprising announcement on Tuesday that it was suspending military operations in Iraq, where it operates. A statement by the group indicated that it had come under pressure from Iran and Iraq to stop attacks on U.S. troops.

Iran has denied ordering attacks on U.S. forces, including the drone strike in Jordan, saying that the Axis of Resistance — the loose network of Iranian-backed groups operating in the Middle East — act independently to oppose “aggression and occupation.”

 

 

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5 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

They’re hoping to cool things down briefly so they can escalate again. 

If we'd just sit down and talk with them, probably all that Iran wants is whatever little bits of the Middle East that Cyrus the Great controlled.

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UNWatch is enjoying their "I told you so" moment with the UNRWA firings and scandal. 

 

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The Case Against UNRWA

Testimony by UN Watch Executive Director Hillel Neuer before the United States Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Joint Hearing of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Accountability and the Subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, January 30, 2024

 

Chairmen, Ranking Members, and Members of the Committee: Thank you for inviting me to testify today. For years, we have been told by UNRWA and its supporters that the agency performs “lifesaving work” and that its teachers offer Palestinian students an education that “promotes human rights, tolerance, equality, and non-discrimination.”

 

Today, more than ever before — and I mean literally today, in light of the bombshell news reports in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and elsewhere — we now know this has been a lie.

 

From these and other revelations of the past few days, we know that in Gaza, at least 12 UNRWA employees personally participated in the massacre of October 7th, which involved the murder of 1,200 Israelis along with mass rape, torture, and mutilation. Secretary of State Blinken said yesterday, “These intelligence reports are highly, highly credible.” 

 

The world also learned yesterday that 1,200 UNRWA employees in Gaza are part of Hamas or Islamic Jihad, meaning actual operatives within the political and military organizations. 

 

Finally, an estimated 6,000 UNRWA employees, being half of the UNRWA workforce in Gaza, have close family members in these terrorist organizations.

 

Now, UNRWA’s top donors, the United States, Germany, Britain, Canada, and many others have just announced they’re freezing funds. 

 

Accordingly, I have come here from Geneva today to bring before the Congress our case against UNRWA. 

 

I have come here to ask the Congress of the United States, which is the largest donor to UNRWA at over $300 million a year, to not just suspend, but to end the funding for good — and to take the lead in dissolving an organization that is riddled with incitement to hate, involvement in terrorism, and the perpetuation of war. 

 

Members of the committee will find all of the evidence that I present here on our website under “The Case Against UNRWA”: unwatch.org/unrwa-obstacle…

 

Now, on Friday, Secretary-General Guterres announced that he was “horrified” to learn that members of his UNRWA staff were implicated in terrorism. 

 

Members of the Committee: I am here to bear witness and testify that Secretary-General Guterres, the head of UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini, their predecessors, and their senior colleagues, could not possibly have been shocked that UNRWA employees are implicated in terrorism. 

 

Because for the past nine years, and Chairman Smith knows this very well, we’ve been uncovering, publishing, and submitting to the UN, to UNRWA, evidence of widespread and systematic incitement to jihadi terrorism, the praise of Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, calls to slaughter Jews on the part of UNRWA teachers, school principals, and other employees.

 

These reports range from 10 to 200 pages. For example, just in November, we sent a report on 20 teachers who celebrated the October 7th massacre. unwatch.org/report-u-n-tea…

 

In March, together with IMPACT-se, we identified 133 UNRWA teachers and staff who promoted hate and violence in social media. unwatch.org/un-teachers-ca…

 

In June 2022, we released a report called “UNRWA’s Teachers of Hate.” unwatch.org/exposed-un-tea…

 

It included the following Facebook post by Elham Mansour, an UNRWA teacher: “By Allah, anyone who can kill and slaughter any Zionist and Israeli criminal and doesn’t do so, doesn’t deserve to live. Kill them and pursue them everywhere. They are the greatest enemy. All Israel deserves is death.” unwatch.org/elham-mansour-…

 

This is an UNRWA teacher’s statement on Facebook. We sent it to the UN. They did nothing.

 

We sent them reports in 2021: unwatch.org/report-un-teac…

 

In 2019: unwatch.org/exposed-unrwa-…

 

In 2017: unwatch.org/130-page-repor…

 

And in 2015, numerous reports: 

• Nov. 30, 2015: unwatch.org/report-despite…

• Oct. 19, 2015: unwatch.org/issue-551-unrw…

• Sept. 1, 2015: unwatch.org/images-of-unrw…

* Aug. 23, 2015: unwatch.org/unrwa-posts-an…

 

They never contacted us for information. They refused our repeated written requests to meet to discuss the problem. 

 

They cannot say they didn’t know. Mr. Guterres knew. The head of UNRWA knew. The United Nations knew. They simply chose not to act.

 

But it’s much worse than that. From the beginning, their response to our reports was to attack us for doing the work they failed to do. 

 

If we look at Chris Gunness, the longtime UNRWA spokesman — he’s now come back as a surrogate, giving interviews on Al Jazeera — he said on Twitter the following, in response to our reports: 

• “Appeal to journalists: please don’t turn UN Watch’s baseless allegations about antisemitism into a he-said-she-said story. It’s a non-story.” 

• “UN Watch makes a fool of itself again. Credibility dead in the water. Will anyone believe them again?” 

• “Interested to find out more about UN Watch’s political and financial affiliations since its establishment. Can anyone advise?”  

unwatch.org/unrwas-chris-g…

 

This was their response — to smear the messenger. They are not interested in finding out the root problem of incitement to terrorism.

 

In June 2022, when under pressure from the U.S. they had to suspend six out of 10 of their employees whom we had exposed, UNRWA Deputy Commissioner-General Leni Stenseth — who’s now the Director General of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry — informed donor states, and put it on her website, that “the real intent of UN Watch, is to destroy and not build and to invite conflict, not build a lasting peace.” unrwa.org/newsroom/press…

 

Now, the U.S. and other donors have asked UNRWA to investigate and to ensure accountability. I can tell you, for a decade, UNRWA has shown itself to be unwilling, unable, and unfit.

 

Today I wish to present our new report, called “UNRWA’s Terrorgram” which I’ve handed to each of the members and it’s on our website: unwatch.org/unrwa-terrorgr…

 

In this report, we document a telegram chat group of over 3,000 UNRWA teachers in Gaza that is replete with messages, photos, and videos cheering and celebrating the massacre of October 7th. 

 

It includes, for example, Safaa Mohammed Al-Najjar, on the morning of October 7th — she’s an UNRWA teacher of computers in Gaza, an administrator of this Telegram group — she celebrated the massacre, posting videos. She praised the Hamas “mujahideen,” the holy warriors, as they massacred, mutilated, and raped Israelis. unwatch.org/safaa-mohammad…

 

UNRWA English teacher Abdallah Mehjaz shared a message from Hamas urging Gazans to stay put, to ignore Israeli messages asking them to evacuate for their safety, effectively doing the work of Hamas, to ask Gazans to be human shields. This is an UNRWA teacher.

unwatch.org/abdallah-mehja…

 

Israa Abdul Kareem Mezher, an elementary school teacher, celebrated the Hamas terrorists saying: “May Allah keep their feet steady and guide their aim.” When a group member wondered what these “heroes,” the terrorists, as they were perpetrating the massacre, were brought up on, Mezher replied, “They imbibed jihad and resistance with their mother’s milk.” And a few days later, this UNRWA teacher asked Hamas to execute their Israeli hostages. unwatch.org/israa-abdul-ka…

 

When Stéphane Dujarric, the UN spokesman, was asked about our information, he replied on January 11th: “I mean, UN Watch, they have a track record. And I think from our end it speaks for itself.” He tried to disparage us. twitter.com/HillelNeuer/st…

 

Just to conclude: We have massive incitement to terrorism. 

 

Prominent people have said, “Well, bad apples... It’s just a few bad apples.” No. We’re talking about 1,200 UNRWA staff who actually belong to the terrorist organizations; 3,000 UNRWA teachers in this Telegram group; 6,000 UNRWA employees whose family members belong to Hamas or Islamic Jihad. This is not a problem of “bad apples”; UNRWA is rotten to the core.

 

So we’ve talked about incitement; we’ve talked about acts of actual violence; finally, let’s get to the core problem, and with that I conclude. 

 

The core problem of UNRWA, the very purpose of the agency, is to perpetuate the war of 1948, to send the message to Palestinians that the war of 1948 is not over. Don’t use cement to build homes, hospitals, and schools here in Gaza. Use it to build hundreds of miles of terror tunnels, to tunnel into Israel, to invade Israel, to go back to where your true homes are. That is the message of UNRWA.

 

So we should not be surprised by what happened on October 7th because that is the message that these Palestinians got for more than 70 years in UNRWA schools.

 

UNRWA is a failure. We have to recognize what the Swiss Foreign Minister Ignacio Cassis said. And Switzerland is a country that historically supports the UN. He said the following: “UNRWA has become part of the problem. It supplies the ammunition to continue the conflict. By supporting UNRWA, we keep the conflict alive. It’s a perverse logic.” twitter.com/HillelNeuer/st…

 

And I’m here to say: If the United States and other governments that fund UNRWA truly care about helping Palestinians and Israelis, it’s time to put an end to this perverse logic.

 

We are asking Congress to take the lead in dissolving this agency.

 

Thank you very much.

 

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9 minutes ago, statsman said:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reluctance to make decisions over who should run Gaza after Hamas is breeding mounting concern in the military
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-puts-political-survival-ahead-of-tough-decisions-on-gaza-783cb8e6?st=pwjltr0awqjjfz8&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

Psssst.  It's because Bibi doesn't intend on their being a "Gaza" when this is over.  He's making that more and more clear every day.  "Gaza" will just be "the part of Israel that's on the sea, with no arabs in it."

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7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Psssst.  It's because Bibi doesn't intend on their being a "Gaza" when this is over.  He's making that more and more clear every day.  "Gaza" will just be "the part of Israel that's on the sea, with no arabs in it."

You’re probably correct except the no Arabs part. I doubt they can move that many people out without significant international pressure. I see them likely just taking control and occupying Gaza like everyone has accused them of doing for years. We can argue whether they should morally or ethically but I think it’s the most likely action at this point for Israel no matter how one feels about it.

Allowing foreign aid in unchecked has not helped anyone other than Hamas. If they can control Gaza and distribute that aid to those truly in need then maybe thing might actually get better for everyone even if it’s clearly not an idealistic solution.

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8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

If they can control Gaza and distribute that aid to those truly in need then maybe thing might actually get better for everyone even if it’s clearly not an idealistic solution.

That's the clearest path forward for Israel to win Palestinian hearts.  Whatever Palestinian state that's set up without international and Israeli oversight will be strongarmed by Hamas or another snake head group.  If Israel can improve the daily lives of Palestinians by raising living standards and having basic utilities and amenities available that before weren't it'll go a long long way to combatting the indoctrination of the past 60 years.  it takes time but that's the only way.

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24 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

President Biden is issuing order 66.  Issuing orders to target violent extremists in the West Bank.  So we are sending boots into Gaza officially 

Link? And Gaza is not the West Bank. I do not see us hitting either one. Risk of Blue on Blue plus would require a lot of open discussions.

Potential hits in Syria and Iraq are what I am seeing being reported.

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8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Link? And Gaza is not the West Bank. I do not see us hitting either one. Risk of Blue on Blue plus would require a lot of open discussions.

Potential hits in Syria and Iraq are what I am seeing being reported.

I'm not seeing anything about American boots on the ground in Gaza or the West Bank anywhere. 

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Just posted a few minutes ago. I'm sure we'll get more details soon.

U.S. Conducts Retaliatory Strikes in Iraq and Syria Against Iranian Proxies

The United States on Friday carried out a series of military strikes against Iran-backed militants in half a dozen sites in Iraq and Syria, according to a U.S. Defense Department official, marking a sharp escalation of the war in the Middle East that the Biden administration has for four months sought to avoid.

President Biden had promised to respond to a drone attack in Jordan on Sunday that killed three American soldiers and injured at least 40 more service members. The military action sought to send a message to Iran and the militias it backs that continued attacks on U.S. troops in the region and international ships in the Red Sea will draw a response.

Mr. Biden approved the retaliatory strikes, U.S. officials said. He even telegraphed that they were coming when he told reporters on Tuesday that he had made a decision on the response to the drone attack on a remote outpost in Jordan.

Mr. Biden and his top aides have been loath to take steps that could draw the United States into a wider war in an already hugely unstable region. In particular, the administration does not want the proxy war underway with Iran to become a more significant conflict.

But with the latest strikes, that possibility is inching closer. Administration officials said Mr. Biden had little choice but to hit back after the strike in Jordan killed the three American soldiers, especially since their deaths came amid a steady stream of attacks from Iran-backed groups like the Houthis in Yemen and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq.

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, so where do we talk about it since not really Gaza direct? Perhaps the Iran thread?

@blacklab

I asked him earlier this week, and his response is at the top of the page. Personally, I see it as a separate but related deal because it's between Iran and us. It's all one big mess though and I understand not having too many threads.

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Just now, blacklab said:

red sea thread should be the place for the iran stuff in my opinion, but open to ideas

 

Maybe change the title of the Red Sea thread and we just dump all Iran+proxies/US conflict stuff there?

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