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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

Indeed many expats hold on to hope during events like this. 
 

 

That makes sense for those who fled but wonder what it’s like for those there today. If there’s one thing the masses like it’s religious superiority. Are the people living in Iran wanting to go back to pre 1979 or to continue fundamentalism possibly with different leaders?

Edited by 'stache
Posted
1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

So Iran couldn’t play Hide the Salami?

 And now they have a bunch of charcuterie that they don’t know what to do with.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

That makes sense for those who fled but wonder what it’s like for those there today. I’d there’s one thing the masses like it’s religious superiority. Are the people living in Iran wanting to go back to pre 1979 or to continue fundamentalism possibly with different leaders?

Well I suspect it's fair to say that the little girls and young women that are getting attacked and beaten for not wearing hijab, wouldn't mind seeing a change in behavior.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Parliament said:

There’s a huge diversity in opinions of if Israel is right to do these things for sure.  And that’s good.  It’s how free society should work.

But can we all agree that motherfucker these guys are good at killing their enemies.  Like how did the know where those guys were at that specific time.

We all know how powerful Pegasus is.  That was the first iteration, that we even know about

Posted
6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Well I suspect it's fair to say that the little girls and young women that are getting attacked and beaten for not wearing hijab, wouldn't mind seeing a change in behavior.

Well yeah of course there are people there being repressed and who want out. I’m talking about the majority. If given legitimate self determination and if decided fairly (bigs ifs I know this is hypothetical) would they choose pre revolution style freedoms or stick with fundamentalist theocracy? I think it’s wrong to assume that everyone chooses freedom, at least the way we understand it, religion is insanely addictive it seems even today.

Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

Well yeah of course there are people there being repressed and who want out. I’m talking about the majority. If given legitimate self determination and if decided fairly (bigs ifs I know this is hypothetical) would they choose pre revolution style freedoms or stick with fundamentalist theocracy? I think it’s wrong to assume that everyone chooses freedom, at least the way we understand it, religion is insanely addictive it seems even today.

The Devil you know....

Posted
7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Well yeah of course there are people there being repressed and who want out. I’m talking about the majority. If given legitimate self determination and if decided fairly (bigs ifs I know this is hypothetical) would they choose pre revolution style freedoms or stick with fundamentalist theocracy? I think it’s wrong to assume that everyone chooses freedom, at least the way we understand it, religion is insanely addictive it seems even today.

 

Majority/minority, it doesn't matter. Although the flavor may differ, tyranny almost universally wins during civil unrest. 

Posted
There’s a huge diversity in opinions of if Israel is right to do these things for sure.  And that’s good.  It’s how free society should work.
But can we all agree that motherfucker these guys are good at killing their enemies.  Like how did the know where those guys were at that specific time.

Life360?
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Chopper said:

SIAP - was Putin's official statement posted here?

image.thumb.png.186e0c0f36b48447f620ac5bb4d63ad2.png

 

Okay Tucker, I agree that there is a cost to the action. Now estimated the cost of doing nothing. 

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Posted

"Don't Let The Propaganda Lie To You"-- Cool ,cool, so I'll ignore everything Tucker Carlson says.  As per usual.

 

11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Well yeah of course there are people there being repressed and who want out. I’m talking about the majority. If given legitimate self determination and if decided fairly (bigs ifs I know this is hypothetical) would they choose pre revolution style freedoms or stick with fundamentalist theocracy? I think it’s wrong to assume that everyone chooses freedom, at least the way we understand it, religion is insanely addictive it seems even today.

It's really impossible to know, the oppression is so great that there's zero chance of hearing any true response.  I get it that you're proposing a hypothetical, but there's really no way to answer it, even speculatively.

 

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Posted
24 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Damn, Iran and Hezbollah must be so pissed at Hamas for Leeroy Jenkin's 10/7. Unreal how they've basically been cucked since then. 

I mean, seriously. The epitome of poking the bear and FAFO in succession since that day.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

Lol @ the notion that this has literally anything at all to do with October 7. Some of you are so tunnel visioned it's incredible.

None of these events are happening in a vacuum. Since 10/7 Israel has been on an absolute run, and has executed precisely on their objectives (ranging from ethnic cleansing to decapitation of Hizballah and Iranian leadership). They may have the most effective military planners in the world at the moment, at least judging by the skins on the wall. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Lol @ the notion that this has literally anything at all to do with October 7. Some of you are so tunnel visioned it's incredible.

Talk about tunnel vision. 

On 26 October 2024, Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria. The Israeli attack involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters, traveling 1,200 mi and using heavy munitions. A preceding attack on Syria reportedly targeted radar defenses. The IDF stated it has completed "precise and targeted strikes" in response to "months of continuous attacks" from Iran and its proxies, as well as a recent barrage of Iranian missiles on Israel on 1 October. In retaliation for Operation Days of Repentance, Iran launched a drone attack on Israeli territory, firing over 100 drones towards Israel. 

All of that set in motion for what happened yesterday. 

 

Posted
32 minutes ago, Chopper said:

SIAP - was Putin's official statement posted here?

image.thumb.png.186e0c0f36b48447f620ac5bb4d63ad2.png

He talking about US led strikes, or strikes in general?  I can "kind of" see the point if these are carried out by American planes, but let's look back over history, this isn't the 1st time the Israeli air force has done this.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

He talking about US led strikes, or strikes in general?  I can "kind of" see the point if these are carried out by American planes, but let's look back over history, this isn't the 1st time the Israeli air force has done this.  

Specifically US led strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, I believe, which is not at all what happened last night.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Specifically US led strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, I believe, which is not at all what happened last night.

What I thought, and yes....not at all what happened, even though it was cleared and sanctioned by the US and surrounding countries.  

Posted
Quote

How did we get to this point?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes - called Operation Rising Lion - were "a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival".

He said the operation would "continue for as many days as it takes to remove the spread".

Netanyahu said Iran has taken steps to "weaponise" in recent months and that, "if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time".

An Israeli military official told the BBC that Iran had enough nuclear material to create nuclear bombs "within days".

In his address, Netanyahu also thanked US President Donald Trump for "confronting Iran's nuclear weapons programme".

The strikes come as US talks over Iran's nuclear programme, which began in April, appear to have stalled in recent days. The next round of talks was scheduled for Sunday.

Trump had hoped to strike a deal to stop Tehran developing a nuclear weapon. Iran has long insisted that its nuclear activities are peaceful.

Earlier this week, Trump reportedly held a "tense" phone call with Netanyahu, who has long argued for a military rather than diplomatic approach to Iran's nuclear abilities.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdj9vj8glg2o

 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Lol @ the notion that this has literally anything at all to do with October 7. Some of you are so tunnel visioned it's incredible.

 

b39362effa168d63be7d0093c9e911a0.gif

 

27 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

None of these events are happening in a vacuum. Since 10/7 Israel has been on an absolute run, and has executed precisely on their objectives (ranging from ethnic cleansing to decapitation of Hizballah and Iranian leadership). They may have the most effective military planners in the world at the moment, at least judging by the skins on the wall. 

 

T&P's bro

Posted (edited)

Whoa (first Ukraine, then Israel)

“According to the official, Mossad agents set up a drone base on Iranian soil near Tehran. The drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers aimed at Israel.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/mossad-set-up-a-drone-base-in-iran-uavs-were-activated-overnight-to-strike-surface-to-surface-missile-launchers-aimed-at-israel/

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
1 hour ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Damn, Iran and Hezbollah must be so pissed at Hamas for Leeroy Jenkin's 10/7. Unreal how they've basically been cucked since then. 

How much did they really expect that little bastard to do anyway? I mean, he's fucking tiny

 

 

images (26).jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Just popping into this thread blind to post some snark-

how long until Putin forces Trump to force bibi to attack Ukraine?  They could even continue the denazification angle. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

None of these events are happening in a vacuum. Since 10/7 Israel has been on an absolute run, and has executed precisely on their objectives (ranging from ethnic cleansing to decapitation of Hizballah and Iranian leadership). They may have the most effective military planners in the world at the moment, at least judging by the skins on the wall. 

The methodical nature has been something to behold. They’ve largely eliminated Iran’s neighboring proxies and or prevented them from responding, and now they’ve started on the main course.
 

One wonders if the IAF’s destruction of the Iranian air defense networks and missiles was a warning shot, or merely the first blow followed by a pause to collect itself for the next mission.  

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just popping into this thread blind to post some snark-

how long until Putin forces Trump to force bibi to attack Ukraine?  They could even continue the denazification angle. 

Putin's play in all of this will simply be "which angle of chaos is most likely to benefit Russia?"  That's the one he'll choose.  And he WILL choose such an angle, for sure.

Posted
1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

Some quick things that should now be obvious that people don't seem to really accepting:

Big Picture

1. Yesterday was day 61 from when the current administration told Iran they needed a deal in 60 days. All of the other news surrounding the U.S. being against the attacks are just theater. 

2. If it hasn't been figured out, this was all worked out during the ME trip recently and greenlit as a contingency if Iran did not come to terms. 

3. Saudi, Jordan, and Quatar are all at worst allowing this to happen with Saudi being the most active providing help on the fringes.

4. Of the proxies out there that generally bend over backwards to help Iran, only the Yemen Houthies have been vocal about it. Lebanon went out of their way to publicly muzzle Hezbolah regarding providing support to Iran. Note that so far the Houthies have only denounced Israel without mentioning the US.

 

Iran/Israel conflict itself

1. Israel has operational control of the skies over Iran and has since the prior set of attacks in Oct 2024. It was rumored to be much more successful vs the current Iranian AD systems that being reported, but it is now obvious that Iran now can not stop the Israeli air force.

2. Israel has been on the ground in Iran for weeks. The level of infiltration by the Mossad in Iran is something that is being understated. It was a scary wakeup call for Iran when they killed Ismail Haniyeh in July of 2024 in Tehran, but the level of infiltration is well beyond what anyone suspected.

3. Many of the targets hit were obviously being surveilled right until impact and the number assets needed to do something at this scale is a feat that is very hard to achieve with this level of success. What is more subtle about all of this is that some these assets must still active as they have been used for secondary decapitation strikes, such as the strike on the Iranian AF command. The only way you can pull off that level of strike after the initial element of surprise is over is by having boots on the ground.

4. Isreal set up and used a similar drone swarm "carrier" approach that Ukraine used to target pre-identified Ballistic missile stockpile and launcher. The Israel intel has been so complete that there is little doubt it came from within. Now, whether was it acquired or given to Mossad is going to be a point on contention, but there is no way this number of targets were acquired, identified, and then equipped with some type of homing/target acquisition beacon could have been done through just basic visual/sigint/sat work. This is probably the most subtle point that is going to get glossed over, but the failure of information security within Iran is the only way some of these targets could ever be identified and being that the variety of easily mobile targets destroyed is so high, this failure has to be complete on a variety of systems, across a variety intelligence/military silos, with support from human assets that work within these silos. 

5. Mossad is fucking scary... 

Don’t mess with the Zohan.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

Interested to see what the story is here

That top one has to Mossad disinfo to try and stir up a further purge in the Quds. If this is actually true, I have no words for the level embarrassment this would be for the Iranian security forces. Also, if this is true, how is the ayatollah still alive? This level of access would would mean that Israel would have backdoor access to the political leadership movements and would be one of the few people that would be expected to have access to the ayatollah at all times. 

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Posted

"Asset" doesn't always mean willing asset.  Going back over time, very few were/are ideological allies.  Most are turned via coercion and leverage.  I'd assume this is the case here.  While he might have some level of access, hard to say what they looks like.  Nor would he have additional resources.  See Operation Valkyrie in WWII.  There were dozens of them coordinating together, and it still failed.  I'd guess Mossad turned him via threats of familial distress or pics of him licking a pigs ass while wearing a diaper a high heels.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

That top one has to Mossad disinfo to try and stir up a further purge in the Quds. If this is actually true, I have no words for the level embarrassment this would be for the Iranian security forces. Also, if this is true, how is the ayatollah still alive? This level of access would would mean that Israel would have backdoor access to the political leadership movements and would be one of the few people that would be expected to have access to the ayatollah at all times. 

 

I’m no security analyst or foreign affairs expert, but I would think taking out the "Supreme Leader" of Iran would be a bridge too far, even for the Israelis. The blowback on toppling a Head of State could be far-reaching and difficult to predict.

I could be wrong, of course, as I was not anticipating they’d kill upwards of 50,000 or so Gazans.

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Posted
Just now, bolverk said:

 

I’m no security analyst or foreign affairs expert, but I would think taking out the "Supreme Leader" of Iran would be a bridge too far, even for the Israelis. The blowback on toppling a Head of State could be far-reaching and difficult to predict.

I could be wrong, of course, as I was not anticipating they’d kill upwards of 50,000 or so Gazans.

Normally, I would agree because of the regional aspect would make all the rest of the ME be forced to go after Israel. Now, I am not so sure. Saudi is signalling they want more normalized relationships with Israel and the long-standing Arab vs. Persian (Shia vs Sunni) rivalry has always made Saudi/Iran unlikely bedfellows. If Israel is promising a move back to the prior Irian monarchy will be the result and with it an end of the headaches caused by the Iranian proxy wars, I could see several of the ME countries signing off.

My guess is that it is more going to be a classic "color revolution" that will be pushed by others in the ME after Israel neutralizes the Iranian military's ability to commit to mass reprisals. 

As an interesting datapoint in all of this, Iran has cut off all internet access to the country. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin's play in all of this will simply be "which angle of chaos is most likely to benefit Russia?"  That's the one he'll choose.  And he WILL choose such an angle, for sure.

He was somewhat trying to play peacemaker and was willing to work with Iran to get them within compliance.

Not because he cares about peace in the Middle East, but because he was trying to keep Israel from wrecking one of Russia’s biggest weapons suppliers.

Speaking of, this could have a ripple effect for Ukraine if fewer drone/missile systems are shipped to Russia because Iran wants to use them against Israel.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He was somewhat trying to play peacemaker and was willing to work with Iran to get them within compliance.

Not because he cares about peace in the Middle East, but because he was trying to keep Israel from wrecking one of Russia’s biggest weapons suppliers.

Speaking of, this could have a ripple effect for Ukraine if fewer drone/missile systems are shipped to Russia because Iran wants to use them against Israel.

I had the same thoughts. 
looks like one of Putin’s main drone suppliers will be out of business. 
Zelensky should be pleased.

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