Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, and Walz’s spitballing wasn’t wrong. China might be a viable option there. Not a great one from the US perspective, and certainty not the only one. But you need an entity with some power that isn’t an active player in the current fighting. Not an easy answer.

And that’s fair, they may be the biggest party that can do this. 

But let’s also remember they will do whatever they can to undermine US interests in the process. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Dumb question amnesty:  What about a conveyor belt of bombs an F15 can carry?  As stated above, the “Top Gun” aproach.

Wiki says 24,500 pounds. A bunker buster weighs 30k hence the problem.

The F-15E and EX is enjoying a vibrant second life as an air to air defense platform. They shot down a shit ton of missiles and drones in the last Irani attack. 

Posted
And that’s fair, they may be the biggest party that can do this. 
But let’s also remember they will do whatever they can to undermine US interests in the process. 

No doubt.
When we surrendered an active role in the matter, choosing instead to “negotiate” by bullying and tweet, and by sending a real estate guy to “make a deal,” that’s a risk.
  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, hornbri said:

And that’s fair, they may be the biggest party that can do this. 

But let’s also remember they will do whatever they can to undermine US interests in the process. 

That's a given. China is going to look to fill the power vacuum we've left by withdrawing a lot our soft power projection assets. 

Back to missile defense, BBC did a decent overview last year of Israel's assets (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-20385306)

The full article is worth a read for anyone looking for some good information. But I think this is most helpful:

Range and altitude of Israel's missile systems, including Thaad (October 2024)

US promise to deploy THAAD to Israel was huge. I believe they now have 2 batteries in country (a cool billion dollars per battery). 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Wiki says 24,500 pounds. A bunker buster weighs 30k hence the problem.

The F-15E and EX is enjoying a vibrant second life as an air to air defense platform. They shot down a shit ton of missiles and drones in the last Irani attack. 

Some new weapons are giving it the ability to economically counter mass drone threats, APKWS II (Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II) is a cheap rocket with a laser guided kit added that gives it some air-to-air chops. You can fit them in pods so a single fighter can carry dozens. And they only cost like $20k-30k per shot, which actually makes them win price exchange with drones like the Shahed (cost estimates between $50k and $200k). And a fighter wing can actually counter a drone swarm in single sortie rather than having to go back and re-arm. These are already in service with F-16s. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 6
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


No doubt.
When we surrendered an active role in the matter, choosing instead to “negotiate” by bullying and tweet, and by sending a real estate guy to “make a deal,” that’s a risk.

Trump should not have a part in any negotiations connected with this conflict. 
They should be conducted by adults who have diplomatic skills.

Edited by Armybrat
To add: /CR
  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 2
Posted
11 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I heard one Iranian chanting and saw water bottles being thrown. 

That's great it is going to set a precedent that you throw a bunch of stuff on the field and endanger athletes to get what you want.

(Could not help myself, sorry)

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think there will be any negotiations, Israel will just decide when they are done. 

This conflict has been building for decades. It was almost certainly always going to end with full on war between the two countries. 

I'm of the firm belief, this one goes all the way as Israel knows Iran will continue on their enrichment program no matter what is "agreed upon" in any settlement. Israel is correct in that assessment. 

I think to hurt them most Israel ultimately hits ends up hitting they're funding element which is their OG refinery. 

But that's just my instinct not based on any particular insight other than watching this unfold since I was a child.

Edited by BurntEyes
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
31 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think there will be any negotiations, Israel will just decide when they are done. 

Judging from Gaza, it's gonna be WHILE before they decide they're done I'm guessing

Posted
58 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Some new weapons are giving it the ability to economically counter mass drone threats, APKWS II (Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II) is a cheap rocket with a laser guided kit added that gives it some air-to-air chops. You can fit them in pods so a single fighter can carry dozens. And they only cost like $20k-30k per shot, which actually makes them win price exchange with drones like the Shahed (cost estimates between $50k and $200k). And a fighter wing can actually counter a drone swarm in single sortie rather than having to go back and re-arm. These are already in service with F-16s. 

 

And when you’re too close for missiles…

Posted
1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

This conflict has been building for decades. It was almost certainly always going to end with full on war between the two countries. 

I'm of the firm belief, this one goes all the way as Israel knows Iran will continue on their enrichment program no matter what is "agreed upon" in any settlement. Israel is correct in that assessment. 

I think to hurt them most Israel ultimately hits ends up hitting they're funding element which is their OG refinery. 

But that's just my instinct not based on any particular insight other than watching this unfold since I was a child.

I think at some point Israel knocks off the Iranian leadership and hopes some kind of revolution kicks in and the radicals are thrown out.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Russia is impotent and direct conflict with the West doesn’t appear to be China’s style.

Yeah, it won't spread beyond Iran/Israel.  Russia can't fuck with Israel and can't even defend Iran.

I would have been worried had any other Muslim nations sided with Iran (outside of Yemen) but they are more than content to see Iran wrecked.  I'm curious what countries are letting Israeli aircraft fly over them.

26 minutes ago, General Specific said:

Oh no, SECs strongly worded letter and fine is going to send the Ayatollah into a fit of rage! We are doomed!!1!

Lichtenstein will be penalized.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Haha 3
Posted
11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I think you've misunderstood the question. Your point appears to be that it would be bad FOR US. That may be true. But that isn't what I was analyzing. The question was who was in a position to negotiate a peace successfully, not what is the ideal outcome for the US.  I don't disagree that China negotiating a peace isn't an ideal outcome for the US. 

Therefore the US and Israel would never let it occur. I can’t believe you’re this pedantic. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think at some point Israel knocks off the Iranian leadership and hopes some kind of revolution kicks in and the radicals are thrown out.

One is plan A one is plan B, imo, but I agree that is certainly an option.

My thinking from Israeli perspective, knocking out the OG kills the money supply. Killing the money supply cuts out the heart of the Hyrda. Killing current leaders leaves a vacuum that may well be filled by another similar Hydra. 

Your plan or Plan B if you prefer, imo, leaves a much higher risk for Israel long term, plan A reduces means for military supply, a funding source for another head of the Hydra and potential allows the people of the region to take over as their is no direct funding source for caliphate regime. 

But.. that's me looking at it from a tactical position and only Israeli interest. Outside influences are obviously going to have an effect in the broad terms and many of those won't want the OG attacked for many various reasons.

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

One is plan A one is plan B, imo, but I agree that is certainly an option.

My thinking from Israeli perspective, knocking out the OG kills the money supply. Killing the money supply cuts out the heart of the Hyrda. Killing current leaders leaves a vacuum that may well be filled by another similar Hydra. 

Your plan or Plan B if you prefer, imo, leaves a much higher risk for Israel long term, plan A reduces means for military supply, a funding source for another head of the Hydra and potential allows the people of the region to take over as their is no direct funding source for caliphate regime. 

But.. that's me looking at it from a tactical position and only Israeli interest. Outside influences are obviously going to have an effect in the broad terms and many of those won't want the OG attacked for many various reasons.

Girl Why Dont We Have Both GIF

As long as the religious nuts are in power, Israel will be their bogeyman, and it feels like they will be even more inclined to get nukes built.

And they are even more isolated after Syria fell.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Russia is impotent and direct conflict with the West doesn’t appear to be China’s style.

Direct conflict with the west is not beneficial for China financially, at least certainly near term. At the end of the day, conflict come down to control and money. While China absolutely worships control (like all of them), they certainly recognize how much money can influence it.

Edited by BurntEyes
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Girl Why Dont We Have Both GIF

As long as the religious nuts are in power, Israel will be their bogeyman, and it feels like they will be even more inclined to get nukes built.

And they are even more isolated after Syria fell.

Hey man, I'm personally absolutely for plan C. That removes a big problem piece off the board. Helps Israel and the US immensely long term and serves to help Ukraine dramatically while weaking Russia/Putin. Speaking purely from a selfish point of view, I'm good with that in all aspects.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Eh, there’s a lot of geography and capability limits that keep this within a certain boundary on the right, particularly with Hezbollah incapacitated and Hamas to ground.  By necessity this is going to be likely be restricted to air strikes and small unit actions in support. Israel said this will be a few weeks and I tend to believe them. 
 

Astonishing to see how Iran has screwed the poodle over decades: diverting resources to proxies that now won’t show up, doubling down on isolating themselves regionally, pursuing a rhetorical strategy of insanity.

Its important to remember that neither Iran or Israel has any strategic imperative to be at each other’s throats with three borders between them and no real core interests at stake.  Israel is pragmatic in the extreme outside of Palestine/Lebanon/Syrian border and this has all been driven by Iranian ideological motivators.  Even less than Jew/Zionist hate, its been Iran’s obsession with posing as the real ideological and geopolitical leader within the Islamic world, which is in itself stupidly ideological.  It’s just decades of clerical-military fusion leading to collective brain damage. 
 

Syria is a good counter-example where the leader of an al-Qaeda affiliate just announced he wanted to be cool now and the entire world lined up to give money and normalized relations. Iran could have managed to detente with some of their satans at any time and wouldn’t be here. 

Hopefully Israel drops a few on the Shahed factory.  Another place where Iran had no strategic imperative or benefit— helping to kill Ukrainians.  

I agree with all your points. Perhaps I'm just hope casting to what I selfishly believe is best for a lot of different aspects. I think hitting OG and the leadership is also best for the people of Iran long term not just western and Israel interests. Removing the funding keeps a different caliphate from just moving in, taking it over and being basically back where we started.

Admittedly, my position is a simplistic one.

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

I agree with all your points. Perhaps I'm just hope casting to what I selfishly believe is best for a lot of different aspects. I think hitting OG and the leadership is also best for the people of Iran long term not just western and Israel interests. Removing the funding keeps a different caliphate from just moving in, taking it over and being basically back where we started.

Admittedly, my position is a simplistic one.

Yeah, and if the OG is out of the equation, whoever comes into power is going to have to play nice with the rest of the world.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, and if the OG is out of the equation, whoever comes into power is going to have to play nice with the rest of the world.

Yep! I a purely hypothetical if we recognize it, obviously Israel does. If it weren't for outside influencers, I'd be 100% certain that would be the path Israel would take. It comes down to what the Israeli government believes the world influences will let them get away with in conflict. However, regardless of outside influence, I think Israel has passed the point of negotiations and sees this as the best time given current global environment. (Yes, absolutely including the current POTUS as being a positive in their favor) 

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted
33 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Russia is impotent and direct conflict with the West doesn’t appear to be China’s style.

But they could decide now is an opportune time to get a little more aggressive in the South China Sea and see how spicy things get.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

You're making the same mistake. The question wasn't about what he wanted. It was about which entity was in a position to do it. The answer demonstrates the difficulty of the situation from our perspective. 

At any rate, I didn't intend this to be a huge derail, so let's drop it and get back to updates on events. Iran has updated the number of scientists killed to 9. 

There is also this:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/14/world/israel-iran-news/db1009e6-b251-5d94-bdab-cb4e25bd1276?smid=url-share

 

You live in fantasy land. I mean it is quite astounding. 

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
Just now, Rex Kramer said:

You live in fantasy land. I mean it is quite astounding. 

Dude, you are adding nothing to what is a really good and informative discussion going on in this thread. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
What is wrong with you?

The better question is what is wrong with you? We know who and what he is, and a good number of us put that blathering idiot on ignore long ago. Why the rest of you can’t do the same is beyond comprehension at this point; so don’t bitch about him if you’re going to continue to engage
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

Absolutely nothing apart from reading defenses of an asinine suggestion in effort to be contrarian. And you ask what’s wrong with me

Calm the fuck down. We were approaching the question from different perspectives. I was looking at purely from a technical "get it done" perspective of who can mediate. I wasn't suggesting who should or analyzing political implications. I understand your points generally and already said I agreed it wouldn't be good for the US. I don't know what else you want. Go fucking take a Xanax or something. Your brain fucking turns off and you go rage mode whenever Israel is mentioned. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Calm the fuck down. We were approaching the question from different perspectives. I was looking at purely from a technical "get it done" perspective of who can mediate. I wasn't suggesting who should or analyzing political implications. I understand your points generally and already said I agreed it wouldn't be good for the US. I don't know what else you want. Go fucking take a Xanax or something. Your brain fucking turns off and you go rage mode whenever Israel is mentioned. 

It has nothing to do with Israel. There is no perspective where China leading a peace negotiation makes sense. It’s an incredibly naive and dumb comment. You’re not dumb, and you’re saying this to be contrarian. Walz made an off the cuff comment. You’re actually rationalizing his comment. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
13 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

@Hitch

Unfortunately this is going to get worse for everyone. 

Yep, although that hit was mostly symbolic. Once I heard Iran was striking civilian centers I knew this was heading to total war. 

28 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It has nothing to do with Israel. There is no perspective where China leading a peace negotiation makes sense. It’s an incredibly naive and dumb comment. You’re not dumb, and you’re saying this to be contrarian. Walz made an off the cuff comment. You’re actually rationalizing his comment. 

I agree with you and think you’ve made a solid argument, but we need to move on here. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yep, although that hit was mostly symbolic. Once I heard Iran was striking civilian centers I knew this was heading to total war. 

Page 2 of the Luftwaffe handbook.

Posted (edited)

Based on my Reuters feed, the tone and wording certainly appears to be that Israel is all in. I think it demonstrates a clear willingness (and plans) to move forward with Plan B (Killing all Iranian Regime leaders) and perhaps Plan A (Hitting OG), but it could be my own confirmation bias.

Spoiler

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's strikes had set back Iran's nuclear programme possibly by years but rejected international calls for restraint, saying the attack would be intensified.

"We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs' regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days," he said in a video message.

"If (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn," Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

Reuters Link to comments above

Edited by BurntEyes
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Behind a paywall:

Spoiler

Live Updates: Israel Expands Attack to Include Iran’s Oil and Gas Industry

Both countries kept up airstrikes on each other for a second day, fueling fears of a wider conflict that could draw in the United States and other major powers.

Israel widened its targets in Iran on Saturday to strike at oil and gas installations, as leaders of both countries vowed to intensify their attacks despite international pleas for de-escalation.

 

In sweeping attacks that started early Friday, Israel focused on Iranian nuclear sites, air defenses and military targets. But the strikes on Saturday went a step further, targeting an energy industry that is vital to Iran’s economy. Israeli strikes also appeared to focus on Tehran, the Iranian capital, taking out the city’s air defenses.

NY Times Paywall Article

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted

A few new things...

1. Israel has been fairly restrained "so far" vs the Iranaian economic targets. Not sure how long it stays that way.

2. Estimates are that before this all started, Iran had approximately 2,200 ballistic missiles. Of those, there are reports of 200+ that have already been launched and at least that (with estimates much higher) being destroyed in the initial round of air strikes. Being pessimistic, Iran has less than 20 sets of active large-scale strikes. Essentially Israel knows that Iran has only so many mass strikes available. 

3. The drone strikes (a la the Ukrainian truck carrier approach) has had a large enough impact that Iran has in essence, grounded truck traffic in most of the country. To me that is fucking wild. 

4. Lots of non-military adjacent politicians and their families are heading to Russia right now. Not a major surprise, but interesting to see them accept that Israel has operational control of the air and can attack all cities at will. This forces them to either live in bunkers for the foreseeable future or pull out to Russia, with many doing the latter. 

5. The wild idea of China being an impartial arbitrator in all of this ignores the simple fact that they (and India) are a major destination for Iranian crude and natural gas shipments from the fabled "ghost fleets. That being said, they actually might be a good choice because their interests align with Iran only if the Iranian refineries still exist. That would put an impetus on Iran to negotiate if their major destination of exports for hard currency is the one trying to be the middleman in this situation. 

6. The BBC reports that Israel has been "ineffective" in stopping refinement capabilities in the more hardened facilities is partially true. That being said, I expect Israel to flatten everything they can and then go from there. This is why they keep pushing for US involvement because they do t have an airframe that can deliver the knockout blow to these hardened facilities. I do wonder at some point if we see Israeli troops on the ground in a few specific sites, just to finish the job. 

7. It is staggering how the rest of the big players in the ME are just staying out of this. Not a peep out of Egypt, Saudi and Jordan are allowing fly overs. Iraq is trying to be as noncommittal as their current situation allows them. I am really surprised we have not seen more blowback from the rest of the ME. Outside of the rogue groups within Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, causing some issues, this has been extremely localized. In truth, I am stunned....

8. Iran can still threaten to try and close the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, but with how the rest of the ME has reacted so far, I would be surprised if they allow anything more than a token disturbance to happen.. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 8
Posted
13 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

So apparently most of the Iron Dome components are made in the US. Makes sense. Seems like it would be the highest priority target for Iran if more of the manufacturing was in Israel. 

Iron Dome is really good against rocket and mortar fire from Iranian proxies. It has shit all to do with defending against Iran's long range ballistic missiles. 

  • Hook 'Em 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...