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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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The committee rankings so far are not meaningless but in years past the final ranking to determine the 4 teams has sometimes drastically changed that last week. That's why we need fsu to lose OR chaos with as many 1 loss teams as possible. We stack up well on both fronts. Oregon being ahead of us right now means fuck all. Same if osu is ahead of us Tuesday. It doesn't fucking matter what this week's rankings look like. We could still be 7th and it wouldn't change a thing. 

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5 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Okay, fair enough?  But they’re not gonna change it.  Not with a 24-point win over #16 and probable win against #4. Bitch all you want, but not at me, and stop living in fantasy land. 

I’m just a realist. This isn’t a wildass prediction. This is staring you in the face. You know it and everyone on this board knows it, but yet some of you insist on being delusional Aggy. 

Your entire premise is flawed bc the committee has already moved teams around ahead of us.  They have had no reason to move Texas until now.  Now we have a common opponent and look good too.  Also, when the rankings came out, we had no idea how long Quinn was going to be out and we’re ranked with our back ok QB.  

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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"Oregon is one spot ahead of Texas now so Texas can't pass them" is a really dumb take. 

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

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I have no idea why people think Texas would beat out Oregon for the last spot. The committee has already put them ahead of us and their last game win would be against a top four opponent. Oregon is in if they win, and we are out. Unless, somehow Bama beating Georgia causes  enough committee members to vote Texas to avoid the head to head issue. But I doubt it. 

And as to one loss Georgia getting in, there are only one or two people that keep saying that and they need to stfu. That is not happening over a one loss conference champ Texas. No way. Impossible. 

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6 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

A result against tech in Lubbock in week 2?  They’ve pretty much already said our win in Tuscaloosa in week 2 doesn’t mean much. Why would a close road win mean anything?  They’re ALREADY AHEAD OF US AND SLATED TO PLAY AN UNDEFEATED IN A CCG. THEY WILL NOT BE RANKED BELOW US. 

Why would  double digit win a on the road vs a top 8 team matter? Why the fuck would it not? Texas is the only team to win in Bama by double digits since Saban arrived. 

I am pointing out that information changes throughout the year. Your point of view is the inherent flaw in rankings. One of the reasons the PAC gets respect this year is due to early wins over TCU and Florida. Neither of those teams are going bowling this year, so those wins should mean little now. Unfortunately, people are stubborn. They have a hard time adjusting their opinions, when information changes. Perhaps hubris will stop the Committee from following their written guidelines, but we shall see. 

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To take it out of the hands of the committee we need Louisville or Iowa to win. Everything else is gonna be a beauty pageant. 

I give Louisville a 65% chance to win. They score points much more effectively than Florida and can put some scoreboard pressure on their shitty backup QB. 

I give Iowa a 1% chance to win. They can't score and they really do not pose any threat at all. 

 

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4 minutes ago, blutow said:

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

There is also SOS, which highly favors both Texas and Bama over Oregon. Not to mention you are saying margin of victory doesn’t matter, but it’s literally the basis for Oregon being ahead of Texas and Bama. They are getting a bump for blowing out shitty PAC teams 

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I have no idea why people think Texas would beat out Oregon for the last spot. The committee has already put them ahead of us and their last game win would be against a top four opponent. Oregon is in if they win, and we are out. Unless, somehow Bama beating Georgia causes  enough committee members to vote Texas to avoid the head to head issue. But I doubt it. 

And as to one loss Georgia getting in, there are only one or two people that keep saying that and they need to stfu. That is not happening over a one loss conference champ Texas. No way. Impossible. 

I agree with this. We MIGHT get in over Bama, but thats a total toss up. I do not really see them putting us over Oregon if Oregon and Texas are the only 1 loss teams. It is not right but it is what it is. The committee loves them some PAC football this year. 

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7 minutes ago, blutow said:

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

They don't say margin of victory isn't considered.  They say without incenting margin of victory. I read that to mean the same as the old BCS computers when they put the cap on computers considering anything beyond 21 points in MOV.  Essentially that's not saying that a 1 possession win and a 7 possession win are the same- it's saying we aren't going to dabble in figuring out if a 35 point win is a bigger deal than a 45 point win.  

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10 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

You’re speaking to me as if I am the Committee. Why?  When the Committee tells you who they are, believe them. As opposed to having fantasy dance through your empty head. 

no, i’m speaking to you because your opinion has no relevance, and is in fact quite contrary to what we’ve seen the committee do previously.

and even replying to you makes me feel like i’m wasting my time with an idiot.

in regards to the committee - there’s been absolutely zero examples of a 1-loss champion with a h2h win over another 1-loss champion, where the h2h winner is left out.

along with another 1-loss champion with a common opponent, where the team that dominated the common opponent was left out.

the fantasy is purely yours, and it’s frankly ridiculous.

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6 minutes ago, blutow said:

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

Oregon’s best win is an 8-4 Oregon state team.  If we blow out ranked 9-3 okie lite, it will be just as good if not a better win.  Our win at Bama trumps their potential best win against Washington who is scraping by teams.  Beating an average Oregon State team isn’t the reason they will get in ahead of us.  During our game, ABC already started the argument for us by putting up the graphics of our resume vs Oregon.  That wasn’t by mistake.  They want Texas in and there will be a lot of pressure from Disney/ABC to have us in because of all the eye balls we bring and money we bring.  Don’t kid yourself.  

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I want to thank the posters above me. The rational thinking has got my BP back down. 

Fsu loses and we are in 100%. The rest of the games will not matter.

The other scenario which is as many 1 loss teams as possible is basically a coin flip on if we get in. That's the best we can hope for. 

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They don't say margin of victory isn't considered.  They say without incenting margin of victory. I read that to mean the same as the old BCS computers when they put the cap on computers considering anything beyond 21 points in MOV.  Essentially that's not saying that a 1 possession win and a 7 possession win are the same- it's saying we aren't going to dabble in figuring out if a 35 point win is a bigger deal than a 45 point win.  

This! If I am a betting man, I would bet Texas and Oregon swap positions this week. If they don't do it now, then we will not pass the Pac 12 champion in the final ranking. 

 

Edited by UTEE97
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4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I agree with this. We MIGHT get in over Bama, but thats a total toss up. I do not really see them putting us over Oregon if Oregon and Texas are the only 1 loss teams. It is not right but it is what it is. The committee loves them some PAC football this year. 

That’s not what I meant. What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

Many think Texas gets in over Bama, but I think they will pick Bama over Texas because of SeC bias, a committee with more SEC shills, and the argument that Bama lost early with an inexperienced QB. 

That would be cool to have both Bama and Texas in, and Oregon out. Unlikely, but a tiny possibility. 

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57 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Then there is also no way a 12-1 Oregon should get in over 12-1 Texas.

exactly but what they don't have on their website is an asterisk that denotes

*we have to put these up here so people think we are being analytical when really we are a bunch of old "poll era" guys who can decide what they want

 

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1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

There is also SOS, which highly favors both Texas and Bama over Oregon. Not to mention you are saying margin of victory doesn’t matter, but it’s literally the basis for Oregon being ahead of Texas and Bama. They are getting a bump for blowing out shitty PAC teams 

Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next.  On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon).  I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  

image.png.f06454648976809271509d7de69d23f5.png

   

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people are much closer to the vector here overnight

so i will not spoil the prediction i made in wulaw's gameweek thread

4th and 31 ("graveyard") TD is going to be the smokescreen for the shell game just behind it on tuesday night:

tuesday night:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

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6 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I want to thank the posters above me. The rational thinking has got my BP back down. 

Fsu loses and we are in 100%. The rest of the games will not matter.

The other scenario which is as many 1 loss teams as possible is basically a coin flip on if we get in. That's the best we can hope for. 

it's not a guarantee - saban wins - both georgia and alabama are in

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8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

It might depend on how the games go - but I'm suspecting that this is exactly what will happen if Texas, Bama, UO and FSU win if UO wins close against UW and we whip osu. It lets them avoid dealing with both leaving the SEC out and putting Bama over Texas. 

For the record - I think UGA smokes Bama.

Edited by ztejas
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1 minute ago, blutow said:

Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next.  On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon).  I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  

image.png.f06454648976809271509d7de69d23f5.png

   

I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  
 

This is exactly the problem. People view rankings like they are static. There might have been a legit argument to say the Utah win was comparable to the Bama win 1 month ago. This pervasive idea that you can’t change rankings without admitting fault is absurd. It may play out this year, but I am pointing out this view is what is wrong with human rankings 

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4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

people are much closer to the vector here overnight

so i will not spoil the prediction i made in wulaw's gameweek thread

4th and 31 ("graveyard") TD is going to be the smokescreen for the shell game just behind it on tuesday night:

tuesday night:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

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Just now, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

eye test

Just now, Neonmoon said:

Nothing matters unless FSU loses. 
 

yes but that's not the only thing that needs to happen

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texas should be #5 this week, and we’re in if any of the 4 above us lose next week.

oregon at 6, bama at 7.

most of you hoping for a bama win are also deluding yourselves. 

in a scenario where georgia, michigan, fsu, all win -  and oregon beats wash, it’s us or nike. 

i think we win every reasonable argument, in that scenario.

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3 minutes ago, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

other committee rule

SEC, rivalry, in Jordan Hare at night is worth double bonus points.

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I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 


Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Just now, bangkok said:

texas should be #5 this week, and we’re in if any of the 4 above us lose next week.

oregon at 6, bama at 7.

most of you hoping for a bama win are also deluding yourselves. 

in a scenario where georgia, michigan, fsu, all win -  and oregon beats wash, it’s us or nike. 

i think we win every reasonable argument, in that scenario.

oregon will have the better win and the better loss.  we need FSU or Mich to lose.

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16 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

That’s not what I meant. What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

Many think Texas gets in over Bama, but I think they will pick Bama over Texas because of SeC bias, a committee with more SEC shills, and the argument that Bama lost early with an inexperienced QB. 

That would be cool to have both Bama and Texas in, and Oregon out. Unlikely, but a tiny possibility. 

I agree with you here as well.

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2 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Except those aren't committee criteria 

it's kinda funny people think there is actually criteria they follow.

They already proved they don't follow SOS.  for one loss teams they look at who you beat and who you lost to because you don't get to chose your schedule except for 3 games(SEC has never been punished for their 4th OOC auto win weekend ever).  how people don't see this confuses me to no end.

Edited by dcar00
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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

How does that help?  There is at least hope that we can end up ahead of a 12-1 Oregon.  There is no hope that we will end up ahead of a 13-0 Washington.  

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I think we need Louisville really bad. I don’t want to be in a 2 way with 1 going against Oregon. I don’t know why they are ahead of us when we have a better resume but unless we jump them this week then we better be huge Louisville fans. 
I do think it’s sad how many people are putting Ohio state in front of us still 

Edited by RockyMountainHighHorn
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22 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

This! If I am a betting man, I would bet Texas and Oregon swap positions this week. If they don't do it now, then we will not pass the Pac 12 champion in the final ranking. 

 

I could see us jumping them IF we beat OSU by 24+

The reason being, it seems (by process of elimination) the committee valued Oregon's "dominance" during the mid-late part of the season, while Texas limped to W after W. If Texas boat races OSU, that will be 3 straight weeks to close out the season in which Texas looks elite. Using their own criteria (cited numerous times above) there would not be a single objective metric in which Oregon bests Texas, and Texas has put to bed whatever issues they had when they were squeaking out victories.

That said, I don't see that as the likely outcome even if Texas blows out OSU.

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10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 


Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Negged for talking about Texas in the second person while claiming "horn" in your username. You're either a horn or your not. Sounds like you've chosen. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Negged for talking about Texas in the second person while claiming "horn" in your username. You're either a horn or your not. Sounds like you've chosen. 

Throwing positive rep to you for being a dim, but loving fan of your team. 
 

Rage all you want, I didn’t design the system.  I’d have left it the way it was 25 years ago and just let the writers pick after all the dust of the New Years Bowl’s settled. 

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1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Throwing positive rep to you for being a dim, but loving fan of your team. 
 

Rage all you want, I didn’t design the system.  I’d have left it the way it was 25 years ago and just let the writers pick after all the dust of the New Years Bowl’s settled. 

Your take is wrong, but that isn't why I negged you. 

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1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

there is probably a 1 in 10 chance just because college football but Mich has throttled all their middling big 10 opponents sans Maryland.  Iowa has squeaked by in almost all their games to similar opponents.  The defense won't be able to hold out very long if at all and their O is abysmal as usual.

I expect a 30 point drubbing.

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10 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

How does that help?  There is at least hope that we can end up ahead of a 12-1 Oregon.  There is no hope that we will end up ahead of a 13-0 Washington.  

To a degree, the PAC 12 championship game sorta doesn’t apply to Texas. If the Huskies win, they are in the playoffs. If Oregon wins, they are probably in (barring an uninspiring performance and a monster Texas win). 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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