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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN


ztejas

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I had to work yesterday, and I couldn't watch the playoff selection show until today, and I'm right at the point where they interview Harbaugh.
(let me pause here for context:  I have generally rooted for Michigan, and I see them as a fellow top-flight public university)
Paraphrasing just a little here:
ESPN:  "So, anyway, Jim, you got suspended for cheating, then you cheated some more, then you agreed to be suspended because you definitely have been cheating a long time, and also you were concurrently cheating while also running a ring of cheating cheaters.  And you've had to miss a bunch of games this year.  First, for cheating.  Again, for more cheating.  And now, you're ranked number one.  How does that feel?"
(and now, this is verbatim)
Harbaugh:  (points fingers upward). "Yeah, thanks to God, first.  It's been, uh....  He's had his hand on this team the entire year.  It's been a spiritual journey for us, so uh, all thanks, all thanks to God and our Lord and savior, Jesus Christ."
(Really.  He said that.)
So basically Jesus is scouting games and attending rival practices for him? That's quite a staff he's assembled.
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23 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

I had to work yesterday, and I couldn't watch the playoff selection show until today, and I'm right at the point where they interview Harbaugh.

(let me pause here for context:  I have generally rooted for Michigan, and I see them as a fellow top-flight public university)

Paraphrasing just a little here:

ESPN:  "So, anyway, Jim, you got suspended for cheating, then you cheated some more, then you agreed to be suspended because you definitely have been cheating a long time, and also you were concurrently cheating while also running a ring of cheating cheaters.  And you've had to miss a bunch of games this year.  First, for cheating.  Again, for more cheating.  And now, you're ranked number one.  How does that feel?"

(and now, this is verbatim)

Harbaugh:  (points fingers upward). "Yeah, thanks to God, first.  It's been, uh....  He's had his hand on this team the entire year.  It's been a spiritual journey for us, so uh, all thanks, all thanks to God and our Lord and savior, Jesus Christ."

(Really.  He said that.)

Jesus cheated death.

WWJD, indeed.

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2 hours ago, cochamps said:

219 yards against Iowa.  You have to cover Mitchell, Whittington, Sanders and a fast RB as well.  I hope we get you guys.

 

Edit:  Our SOS os #2, Mich #23.  Much easier to play defense in the BIG, jmo.

TCU put half a hundred on them last year when Michigan was #7 in points allowed.  we held TCU to 17.  Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota were in the top 5 last year in points allowed.

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was in a bar Saturday night, watching Mich/Iowa and Louisville/FSU.  Older Michigan dude at a table with others decked out in Mich garb.

10-0 at the time and announcer was talking about the Iowa punter and Mich oldster was getting all worked up.  Mich punter rips off a good punt and dude says loudly "you want to talk about punters, THERE'S a PUNTER".

our table just busts out laughing.

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4 hours ago, Juicy said:

Again I am confused where this Michigan doesn't have offense narrative comes from. 

Points scored this year. Michigan 477. Texas 470.

Michigan also played the #2,#3,#4 defenses this year. Texas played zero top 10 defenses. Michigan has plenty of offense. They just don't need to use it. 

Not sure how statistics on offense or defense translate between conferences.  And while Michigan may have been holding back on their offensive  weaponry throughout the year in their conference, team speed seems to be less, at least as seen on television, compared to Alabama. Perhaps they are playing a slower game in the B-1 G.  

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19 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

was in a bar Saturday night, watching Mich/Iowa and Louisville/FSU.  Older Michigan dude at a table with others decked out in Mich garb.

10-0 at the time and announcer was talking about the Iowa punter and Mich oldster was getting all worked up.  Mich punter rips off a good punt and dude says loudly "you want to talk about punters, THERE'S a PUNTER".

our table just busts out laughing.

Sounds like the kind of adult that would wear costume to a bar

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  • 2 weeks later...

UM couldn't have played more than 2 or 3 top 100 offenses this year, right? I'd like a UM win, but it feels like Saban can hold the run game in check with a month to get ready and I just don't belief in UM's passing game. Feels like an ugly, low scoring game that Bama wins by 10 unless turnovers/defensive or special teams score flips things toward UM.

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Bama says why steal signals when you can just hire a recent UM assistant coach

Nick is gonna Nick

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Alabama has hired ex-Michigan assistant George Helow to its coaching staff ahead of the team's CFP semifinal matchup against the Wolverines, a source told ESPN on Thursday.

Helow served as Michigan's linebackers coach in 2021 and 2022 under coach Jim Harbaugh. He and Michigan mutually parted ways in February, shortly after Michigan brought back Chris Partridge from Ole Miss to coach the linebackers. He did not coach this season.

It wasn't immediately known what Helow's role will be, but he will not be one of the Tide's 10 on-field assistants.

Alabama, the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, is set to take on No. 1 Michigan on Jan. 1 in the CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential.

A former Ole Miss defensive back, Helow coached several standout linebackers at Michigan, including current players like Michael Barrett and Junior Colson. He worked under Wolverines defensive coordinator Jesse Minter in 2022.

Michigan fired Partridge last month for a failure "to abide by the university directive not to discuss an ongoing NCAA investigation with anyone associated with the Michigan football program." Partridge in a statement said he had no knowledge of the prohibited off-campus signal-stealing operation led by former Michigan staff member Connor Stalions.

The Athletic first reported Alabama's hiring of Helow, who has also made stops at Maryland and Colorado State. Helow started his coaching career as an intern for Alabama coach Nick Saban in 2012. He later made stops at Florida State and Georgia.

 

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https://theathletic.com/5141982/2023/12/18/michigan-alabama-college-football-playoff-rose-bowl/

 

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Despite a dramatic regular season punctuated by an investigation over alleged sign-stealing, No. 1 Michigan rolled to a 13-0 record heading into the College Football Playoff matchup in the Rose Bowl against No. 4 Alabama. But college football coaches The Athletic spoke to for this scouting report are convinced Michigan hasn’t been the same team since the NCAA’s investigation became public.

“They’re different now,” said one Big Ten head coach. “It makes a huge difference to know when blitzes are coming, so when you pick it up, you can really attack it. After that (investigation and resignation of staffer Connor Stalions), they weren’t always at the right place at the right time.”

 

Quote

The Athletic interviewed 10 Big Ten coaches, scouts and analysts to break down Michigan and how it matches up with a late-blooming Alabama team. They were granted anonymity to provide candid observations about the Wolverines.

 

Spoiler

Scouting QB J.J. McCarthy: Still the guy?
Coaches mused on whether the decline in J.J. McCarthy’s production since the NCAA investigation became public was due to the sign stealing (or lack thereof), injury or Michigan’s backloaded schedule — or a combination of all of the above, the latter being most significant.

McCarthy threw 14 touchdowns in the first seven games and averaged 10.6 yards per attempt; in the last six, he threw five touchdowns and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. In the Wolverines’ final five games, McCarthy only threw one touchdown pass.

“It does make you wonder,” said one defensive analyst whose team faced Michigan in the last month of the season. “Going into our game, I thought he was among the best in the country. Afterward, I didn’t think the same. Once all that stuff happened, he just doesn’t look the same. I don’t know if he’s hurt. I thought he was a Heisman candidate. Heisman quarterbacks don’t throw only eight passes in a game. I think before, he was ready for it and he was confident.”

“I don’t know what’s causing him to be hesitant and not as decisive as he was earlier,” said a Big Ten head coach who played Michigan. “He seems out of sync lately.”

One of the head coaches was adamant that the Wolverines had a significant advantage with signal-stealing intel, but he also pointed out that Michigan’s schedule was backloaded. The Wolverines faced the nation’s top three defenses (by yards allowed per game) in their last four games — and their other opponent was Maryland, which ranked No. 20 in the country in yards per play allowed. Coaches also buy that McCarthy has been bothered by a leg injury.

“I’ve heard he’s been banged up since the Penn State game,” said a Big Ten head coach. “He will have to make plays with his feet if Michigan’s gonna have a chance against Alabama. You ain’t gonna big boy Alabama (by just relying on your running backs). I think Alabama is way more talented. Michigan’s offense is not dynamic enough at the skill positions. Alabama’s gonna get heavy-handed with them. If Alabama can stop the run, Michigan has no chance. None.”

McCarthy has had some big performances in tough spots. The Wolverines were depleted last year at Ohio State, and he led them to a 45-23 comeback win when he threw three touchdown passes and ran for a fourth.

“I do think J.J. is very talented,” said one of the head coaches. “If he’s healthy, they’re gonna have to let him run more. When you can run like that, it puts so much pressure on your defense.”

“That’s the biggest thing he adds — it’s the unscripted scrambles,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “If everything’s covered, he can get the first down and move the chains for them.”

The majority of the coaches interviewed said they believe McCarthy must play his best game of the season — and probably his life — for Michigan to beat Alabama.

Scouting the O-line: The best in the Big Ten
In the previous two seasons, Michigan led the Big Ten in rushing behind an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award. This year, Michigan ranks sixth in the league in rushing, averaging 162 yards per game — a decline of 77 per game from 2022.

“That O-line looks pretty. They’re like three deep of pretty guys, but you watch the film and Indiana stuffed them,” one of the defensive analysts said. “They’re not moving you off the ball like you’d think.”

What figures to be more problematic for Michigan is losing standout right guard Zak Zinter, who broke his leg during the Ohio State game. Right tackle Karsen Barnhart shifted inside to replace Zinter, and Trente Jones, who had played a lot this season as a jumbo tight end in 13 personnel sets, has become the right tackle.

“They’re not as good as they were up front last year,” said another defensive analyst. “The center (Olu Oluwatimi) was a lot better. This kid (Drake Nugent) is solid, but not as good. Zinter is very good, but now they don’t have him. (Trevor) Keegan is tough, but we thought they were better at tackle last year. Barnhart has been struggling. He’s probably better suited at guard.”

“I think Alabama will give them trouble with their front,” a Big Ten head coach added.

Despite this decline, most of the coaches still viewed Michigan’s offensive line as the best in the Big Ten. “They’re big and very sound fundamentally and disciplined,” said one of the head coaches. “They’ll check Alabama’s oil.”

Scouting the run game: On Corum and Edwards
The biggest star on offense has been running back Blake Corum, who had his 2022 season cut short by an injury to his left knee that required surgery. The 5-foot-8, 215-pound senior has run for 24 touchdowns this season, but his yards per carry are down from 5.9 last year to 4.7.

“Blake doesn’t look like he did last year,” one of the defensive analysts said. “He doesn’t have the juice. He’s getting chased down.”

In 2022, Corum had 15 runs of 20 yards or longer in 12 games. This year, he has seven in 13 games.

“I think Corum is really good,” said a Big Ten head coach. “He’s just so powerful. I don’t think he has the speed that some SEC guys have, but I do think he’s gotten better. He makes them go.”

“(Michigan) plays to his strengths,” said a Big Ten defensive backs coach. “(Corum) can’t take the 30-yard run and go 60. But he is a bull. He’s a one-cut guy. Not a home-run threat, but he is really, really good in the red zone and really good on check downs. ”

Donovan Edwards is more of the big-play threat. In 2022, Edwards blew the Ohio State game open by rushing for 216 yards (most of them on two long runs). But the former five-star recruit hasn’t been as effective this year. He’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry, down significantly from 7.1 a year ago.

“He has elite speed,” said a Big Ten head coach. “I don’t think he has great vision or great feel, but if he has a crease he can go. He’s just more of an athlete (than Corum). I don’t think he has the patience.”

“I was really scared of (Edwards), especially on third down,” said the Big Ten defensive backs coach. “They have a really good package with him.”

Scouting the pass game: Michigan’s biggest weakness?
Edwards’ versatility (30 catches) gives more punch to a passing attack that lacks big-time threats at wide receiver. According to the coaches interviewed, the receiving corps is the weakest position group. Roman Wilson is the leader in yardage (662 on 41 receptions with 11 touchdowns) while Cornelius Johnson is tops in catches (42 for 567 yards and one TD). Sophomore tight end Colston Loveland has 40 catches for 572 yards and four TDs.

Said another Big Ten defensive backs coach: “(Wilson) is a good player, but we didn’t fear him. When you watch the tape, he’s running a bunch of over routes. He plays hard. We thought (Johnson) was average. He’s tall and looks pretty out there, but he’s stiff and not great in and out of his breaks. (Freshman Semaj Morgan) is wiggly and even more dynamic than Wilson, but he’s not very polished.

“Loveland is a really good route runner, but he can’t block. (AJ Barner) is a complete tight end. He can’t run like Loveland. I like him. (Backup tight end Max Bredeson) is good. You know they’re running the ball when he’s in the game.”

“Roman Wilson is the only one we were worried about,” said a Big Ten head coach. “We thought we had to double him. He’s really good at getting in and out of his breaks. We didn’t think we could play man on him. Barner is very solid. He’s big and a good blocker. Loveland is elite. He runs like a wide receiver.”

Scouting the defense: There will be pressure to step up
Michigan ranks No. 4 in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed, but that’s also good enough to rank No. 4 in the nation. (Yes, it might be an indicator of the caliber of offenses in the conference this season.) But one thing is certain: The Wolverines haven’t faced a quarterback who can run like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. The last really good running quarterback Michigan faced was in last season’s CFP semifinal against TCU when Max Duggan ran for 57 yards and two TDs in a 51-45 shootout.

Duggan ran a 4.52 40 at the 2023 NFL Combine. And Milroe is even faster.

When Michigan made the CFP two years ago, it featured a superstar on defense: edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Wolverines don’t have a player like that this year, but coaches believe this is a better unit overall.

“I like that D-line a lot,” said a Big Ten head coach. “They’re really, really deep. (Kris) Jenkins and (Jaylen) Harrell are very good players.”

Head coach Jim Harbaugh predicts Jenkins, a 307-pound senior, will be a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The son of the former NFL star with the same name has remarkable agility, clocking a 4.33 short shuttle and vertically jumping 34 inches.

Harrell leads the Wolverines with eight TFLs and 6.5 sacks. The other edge rusher, Braiden McGregor, is next with 7.5 TFLs, and Mason Graham, Josiah Stewart, Rayshaun Benny and Derrick Moore all have at least five TFLs. Kenneth Grant, a freakishly athletic 340-pound sophomore, has four TFLs and has impressed rival coaches.

Said one Big Ten head coach: “They’ve pushed the right buttons on that dude. He’s got freaky athleticism for 340. Holy smokes!”

Linebacker Junior Colson is Michigan’s leading tackler with 79. He and Michael Barrett (52 tackles) are very experienced, solid players. None of the coaches interviewed would describe either as elite, but both were considered smart and good scheme fits. The headliner of Michigan’s back end is nickel Mike Sainristil, an undersized 5-foot-9, 180-pound converted wideout who’s become the emotional leader of the defense.

NFL scouts may be leery of Sainristil because of his size, but Big Ten coaches are believers. Sainristil, the MVP of the Big Ten Championship Game, leads the team with five interceptions to go with 30 tackles, four TFLs, six passes broken up and two forced fumbles.

“He’s their most dynamic guy,” said another Big Ten head coach. “He’s great with the ball in his hands. He’ll keep proving people wrong. He’ll be a good NFL player, I promise you.”

“I love that kid,” said an offensive coordinator who faced Michigan in the first half of the season. “He scares you out there because he has that knack for making the big plays.”

Sophomore Will Johnson, a former five-star recruit, is second on the team with three interceptions and also drew praise.

“He’s a big-time talent,” said the OC. “We didn’t want to (mess) with him.”

Who wins: Michigan or Alabama?
Michigan opened as a two-point favorite over Alabama, but the line is down to one in some places. Alabama being the underdog didn’t seem right to most of the coaches, and the majority believe Alabama will beat Michigan. Some of that might be due to the fact that Michigan has lost each of its two Playoff semifinal games, and Harbaugh’s six consecutive losses in bowl games is glaring.

“What has Jim learned?” a Big Ten head coach asked. “Are his guys gonna be fresh and ready to go or worn down?”

“I think it’s the same old thing with Michigan,” said a Big Ten secondary coach. “They’re extremely talented, but if someone can hold up up front with them, I think they’re just too one-dimensional. … They’ve got to get explosive plays on the perimeter somewhere, and those are gonna be hard to come by because Alabama can match up with them outside and still be stern enough against the run.

“Michigan is going to have to play such a clean game.”

One head coach said he wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan won — but he’s picking Alabama. “If Milroe plays like he has lately, I think that’ll be too much for Michigan. There’s nobody like him in the Big Ten. (Alabama) has figured out how to use him, and that’s scary.”

Another head coach did point out that Michigan has the “kind of stuff” that keeps the Wolverines winning — after all, Michigan is 13-0 despite its head coach being suspended for almost half of the season, including during its toughest stretch.

“They don’t have any superstars, but they’re strong and they’ve got a bunch of really good college players,” he said. “They have a really good culture. None of them gives a s— who gets the credit. These guys clearly love playing with each other. They have the chemistry to win a championship.”

 

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On 12/15/2023 at 9:01 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Bama says why steal signals when you can just hire a recent UM assistant coach

Nick is gonna Nick

 

Crossposting...

"Nick The Chess Master"

Alabama and Nick Saban hire former Michigan linebacker coach ahead of Rose Bowl | Joel Klatt Show

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  • 2 weeks later...

My dream: Bama front seven bottles up M ground game and keeps M offense behind the sticks, pressures and sacks McCarthy on third downs, maybe get a pick or two. Bama O line buys time for Milroe, run bolcks enough to average 4 or 5 yds per run. Milroe protects the ball, hits a few nice deep passes, RBs keep down and distance manageable. Bama in control all day, wins 30-14.

My nightmare: Michigan demon db (forgot his name) in Milroe’s grille all day, causes poor passes and hinky fumbles, turnover Milroe looks like 9/9/23. Michigan O line wallows Bama off the ball, doubles and neutralizes edge rushers. Michigan offense channels Penn State game, run after run, Corum and company stsy shesd of sticks, play action opens pass game to tight ends, ball control anaconda Wolverines. Michigan 27-10.

Reality: somewhere in between, unexpected shit happens, I can only pray we have the ball last within 6. Bama wins, 19-18.

Hook ‘em, my Surly brothers and sisters. It’s been a helluva year. We ain’t dead yet.

If you’re checking out Bourbon Street and some dude walks up and says, “Bet you $20 I can tell you where you got your shoes,” don’t take the bet. Just say “On Bourbon Street, motherfucker! Where you think? Hook ‘em!”

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42 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

dude only threw 1 touchdown in their last 5 games? Jesus Christo

Same thing that jumped out at me. That's pathetic. What's going to happen if they fall behind Bama? Can they keep up with their pass game?

Michigan's defense looks good against the slower, less athletic midwest farm schools and their shitty OOC schedule. But come to the playoffs, the good offenses have zero issue moving the ball and scoring on them. They made TCU's offense look like a juggernaut when it was hardly that. 

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23 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

My dream: Bama front seven bottles up M ground game and keeps M offense behind the sticks, pressures and sacks McCarthy on third downs, maybe get a pick or two. Bama O line buys time for Milroe, run bolcks enough to average 4 or 5 yds per run. Milroe protects the ball, hits a few nice deep passes, RBs keep down and distance manageable. Bama in control all day, wins 30-14.

My nightmare: Michigan demon db (forgot his name) in Milroe’s grille all day, causes poor passes and hinky fumbles, turnover Milroe looks like 9/9/23. Michigan O line wallows Bama off the ball, doubles and neutralizes edge rushers. Michigan offense channels Penn State game, run after run, Corum and company stsy shesd of sticks, play action opens pass game to tight ends, ball control anaconda Wolverines. Michigan 27-10.

Reality: somewhere in between, unexpected shit happens, I can only pray we have the ball last within 6. Bama wins, 19-18.

Hook ‘em, my Surly brothers and sisters. It’s been a helluva year. We ain’t dead yet.

If you’re checking out Bourbon Street and some dude walks up and says, “Bet you $20 I can tell you where you got your shoes,” don’t take the bet. Just say “On Bourbon Street, motherfucker! Where you think? Hook ‘em!”

Milroe will make plays off schedule and convert multiple 3rd downs with his feet. They need to at least threaten to use him in the running game even if it’s a called handoff from a zone read look. Michigan’s front may be slow but they are tough in confined spaces and Bama needs every edge they can get in the running game  

Milroe will also make some head scratcher throws. You have to hope they aren’t game changing. As with Texas, Bama has better athletes which creates the opportunity for a blowout. Michigan is well coached and tough but I’d like the matchup of slot receivers and RBs on the Wolverine LBs if I was a Tide fan. 

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Milroe will make plays off schedule and convert multiple 3rd downs with his feet. They need to at least threaten to use him in the running game even if it’s a called handoff from a zone read look. Michigan’s front may be slow but they are tough in confined spaces and Bama needs every edge they can get in the running game  
Milroe will also make some head scratcher throws. You have to hope they aren’t game changing. As with Texas, Bama has better athletes which creates the opportunity for a blowout. Michigan is well coached and tough but I’d like the matchup of slot receivers and RBs on the Wolverine LBs if I was a Tide fan. 

Michigans front may be slow?

I swear the shit some of you say makes me wonder if you actually watch football.


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37 minutes ago, Juicy said:


Michigans front may be slow?

I swear the shit some of you say makes me wonder if you actually watch football.

 

 

 

 

 

Did you watch your own video? The guy gets pushed towards the runner by the block while the RB is stumbling. DTs need to be explosive and this dude takes 4-5 steps to really get going, even with a push start in the right direction from the OL. I’d hate to see how slow he would be if forced to change direction or accelerate on his own. USEFUL Speed for linemen is measured in the first few steps, not at the end of a 40 yard dash. 

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Did you watch your own video? The guy gets pushed towards the runner by the block while the RB is stumbling. DTs need to be explosive and this dude takes 4-5 steps to really get going, even with a push start in the right direction from the OL. I’d hate to see how slow he would be if forced to change direction or accelerate on his own. USEFUL Speed for linemen is measured in the first few steps, not at the end of a 40 yard dash. 

LOL.

The reason Michigan is the number one D in the country is their DL. Saying that their line is slow is like saying Texas has shitty DTs. It’s just not true.
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7 hours ago, Juicy said:


LOL.

The reason Michigan is the number one D in the country is their DL. Saying that their line is slow is like saying Texas has shitty DTs. It’s just not true.

What was their defensive rank last year going into TCU? Or the year before going into UGA? They’re gonna have to prove it outside of the B10 before I believe it. 

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7 hours ago, Juicy said:


LOL.

The reason Michigan is the number one D in the country is their DL. Saying that their line is slow is like saying Texas has shitty DTs. It’s just not true.

They are statistically #1 after facing dog crap offenses week after week. Michigan has a good defense that looks other worldly against their schedule. We can all point to very low scoring offenses on your slate. Tell me how great the top 3 offenses are that Michigan has faced. 

Mizzou held the Buckeyes down more effectively. Ole Miss was mot quite as good vs Pedo State. But those are the statistical comps vs your best opponents. 

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From what my dumbass saw, Michigan looks slow as shit. Buncha big slow motherfuckers. I am salivating at the opportunity to play them. I believe Bama could lose but i am betting they dont. I really want to play Michigan to bat for the cycle on the good conference champions. Either way, we are playing with house money.

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I’m just an armchair dude but I think JJ McCarthy hasn’t seen anything like this Bama front before and he melted down against TCU last year. 
 

Michigan’s defense is salty as fuck and Bama is gonna have to earn pretty much everything. I see an ugly affair with Bama getting control late. Plus Harbaugh can’t seem to get his team ready for these semifinals. 

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On 12/30/2023 at 6:38 PM, sushihorn said:

They are statistically #1 after facing dog crap offenses week after week. Michigan has a good defense that looks other worldly against their schedule. We can all point to very low scoring offenses on your slate. Tell me how great the top 3 offenses are that Michigan has faced. 

Mizzou held the Buckeyes down more effectively. Ole Miss was mot quite as good vs Pedo State. But those are the statistical comps vs your best opponents. 

That's a lot of words to say they played nobody outside of the couch burners.

And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to the Shoe At Night sycophants.

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  • ztejas changed the title to Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
  • Pancho changed the title to CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN

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