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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pancho said:


Angry Aubrey Plaza GIF by Parks and Recreation

They need to keep hammering the point that his excuses are about as relevant as extraterrestrials invading. Remind them of that and then ask the question again

Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

My daughter turned 18 in August, and she just registered to vote a few days before I fly her to Oregon to move her into her freshman dorm.  She's going to vote absentee from college, and she knows that her vote in Texas won't mean much.  But she wants to contribute to what we hope is a popular vote pile on, and she said she'd regret not voting, no matter the outcome. 

Man, I hope there are a lot more like her in November.

 

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

It's the same with my daughter going to school in New York. She's still a student and intentionally registered in Texas to ensure her vote counts here. Besides, she may yet come back when she graduates but, honestly, she flip-flops a lot on that decision for good reason.

Why are your kids committing voter fraud? [/ken_paxton]

Posted

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

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Posted
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I still do not believe the Florida is in play.

I don't either.  I think the opening more offices thing is more a function of they have more money than they know what to do with, so might as well blow it somewhere.

Posted
1 minute ago, GopherRock said:

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

Not really...

The Villages are about 63-67% for Trump - and the change from 2016 in the NYT precinct map was in the Dems' favor (about 2-7 points more blue than Clinton).  But he didn't need to win The Villages 90-10 to win the state by 3.3

Posted
28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

Posted
1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

Yeah, I hate how surly quotes if you pull it from another post.  Sorry.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

That's NOT oil!

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Posted
13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Great intel. Thanks for sharing. One thing I'd add is that if your friend's confidence in MI (and WI by implication I assume), AZ, NV, and GA are correct, PA's actually not the tipping point. The election is already over if she turns out correct. Though I have a hard time imagining Harris underperforming among black men to the extent it costs her PA, while still winning GA.

Yeah--I agree with that.  And by way of full disclosure, we didn't really talk Georgia in any depth individually.  His commentary was "Arizona and Georgia."  And since I was so surprised by his Arizona take, I focused much more on that.

But you're right that Georgia likely has some of the same challenges Pennsylvania has with respect to Black men.

21 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

I think this goes to what we're seeing in the polling--Harris is doing materially better than Hillary or Biden did among whites (particularly among college-educated whites), and materially worse among Blacks and Hispanics.  It's kind of an interesting de-racialization of the vote.

In the last six weeks of the campaign, it strikes me that Harris has her work cut out for her among Hispanics and Black men.  But I think she's maybe better positioned to make up ground with those groups than Trump is to make up ground with college-educated whites.  But that's just a pretty uninformed sense that's not based on any actual data.

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

This coupled with the de-racialization of the voting patterns (Harris maybe doing better among whites in Wisconsin and Trump doing better among Hispanics in California) may be behind a possible reduction/elimination of the Republican advantage in the Electoral College that the current polling kind of hints at.

We'll see.  But for the time being, it's interesting to speculate about.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

538 now has Harris at a 0.8% overall favorable rating, her highest since '21.  In comparison Trump is at -10% favorable rating. 

Lots of people fooling themselves into thinking it’s ok to vote for a guy they claim to dislike because of “policy” as if villains don’t do villainous things when they have power.  Or that they can believe him when he says what he will and won’t do. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas Democrat Party (do they really even exist?) has been a failure in letting Texas go without a fight. Even if you are destined to lose, it's important to retain whatever ground you have. They are plenty of potential Democrat voters in Texas who are surrounded by vocal GOP voters. Many just either don't bother voting or they succumb to the pressure of voting GOP. And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

and what's worse is they are the ones saying Texas isn't in play which depresses their own turnout. 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, C-Man said:

In a matter of a week, my wife has gone from "no way we're putting a political yard sign out front" to actually entertaining our next door neighbors and us both putting them out so our street will lean heavy Harris in public support.

That's a metaphorical dam breaking. When people overcome that mental barrier, the supporters become vocal and the fencesitters become supporters.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

Oh Yeah Yes GIF by Travis

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

The shitheads.

Posted
20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

Well, it seems in the presidential election if you aren't from one of the seven swing states then you might as well not exist.

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Posted

200.gif

“Do you commit to not killing your wife?”
“Of course, if she doesn’t do something that means she has it coming, yes of course I commit to not killing her.”
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Posted
13 hours ago, wood said:

We talkin' Montgomery County, Texas?

Graduated Conroe H.S. 1983. Lived in Austin ever since. Some good people there, but even more absolute trash.

I grew up in Alabama, traveled all over the FL Panhandle and some of the bleakest stretches of Mississippi and Louisiana, and even I was "impressed" by the Conroe area.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

According to the debate between the DeSantis and Newsome there's a higher per capita migration from Florida to California. Which actually compounds the issue.

Posted
21 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I had dinner over the weekend with my previously referenced "source close to the campaign," and a few nuggets are worth sharing here:

Arizona: They're very confident about Arizona.  I mean, they're so confident about Arizona that I was somewhat shocked.  I mean, I feel good about Arizona.  But what I heard was "we're going to win Arizona by 1-2 points."

Georgia: They're maybe a little less confident about Georgia.  But that was couched in terms of "we really like where we stand right now."  

Michigan: We're fine.

Nevada: They're unequivocal on Nevada: "we're going to win Nevada by 2-2.5 points."

North Carolina: This one is really harder to tell, because they don't have any information from after the whole Mark Robinson flame-out.  It's pretty clear to them that the likes of Kari Lake and Mark Robinson are a bit of a drag on Trump.  And they're really trying to target people who have decided they're not going to vote for Lake/Robinson but who are still planning to vote for Trump.  Who are those people?  I don't exactly know, but it's obviously a focus of the Harris campaign's data people.

Texas: I think the term "extreme skepticism" is the only way to describe their feelings with respect to Texas.  My friend conceded that there are some numbers that look good-ish for Allred.  But damn--we've all been through this drill before.  There's just an extreme unwillingness to divert resources at any level to Texas, no matter what any poll is currently saying.

Pennsylvania: I take this one out of alphabetical order because that's where the game is.  My friend gamely tried to obfuscate on the point, but quickly conceded that Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state.  And they're feeling ok about Pennsylvania, but they have a big problem with Black men.  How big a problem I can't exactly say.  But it's causing some serious concern.  

I asked about whence the problem derives, and he said two things: 1) Kamala's perceived record as a prosecutor (and alleged prosecutions of small-time marijuana offenses) and 2) misogyny (and particularly as against a Black woman).  On the upside, the campaign has identified the issue and is doing a whole lot to address it.  That State Commonwealth is being absolutely blanketed with campaign surrogates talking directly to that community to shore up those numbers.

And I'm going to observe here--and this was my observation, and not my friend's (though it was an observation with which he agreed)--that this is where the Harris campaign's superiority in resources shows.  They have something like twice as many field offices as the Trump campaign and RNC have.  We spent a good deal of time just laughing at how Lara Trump is siphoning off money from the RNC and killing their organizing and down-ballot support.  So the Trump campaign isn't really able to go out and play offense and try to exploit the problems Harris is having with that (or any other) demographic.  So from that standpoint, it's kind of the opposite of 2016.

That is about what I would expect for Arizona. I would also expect Ciscomani/Schweikert to go down and Democrats to flip the state legislature for the trifecta. And of course, Kari Lake is going to lose by a lot.

 

Posted (edited)

If only there were some tried and true way to get a certain cohort to vote...  Georgia got any ideas?

I recommend watching past the 1 minute mark.... vote, vote, vote, stretch, vote...

Edited by locodos
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Posted
1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020.  Hard to be confident that could be overcome.

Can you link to this? is it 3% higher for voter registration? aka 1,000 vs 1,030 or is it 3.1 higher in total voting universe? 

Posted
18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's a metaphorical dam breaking. When people overcome that mental barrier, the supporters become vocal and the fencesitters become supporters.

She's come a long way in her journey. She's never voted for Trump but had no real issues with him up until she saw his reaction/inaction with COVID. She ran her dad's dental practice (he has since retired) and was appalled at the shit he was doing/saying during the pandemic as people were dying and she was trying to safely restart their business. We started our nightly 2-mile walks during the initial shutdown and we'd talk politics. Did I make sure and hit the DOTARD highlights/lowlights? You're damn sure I did -- but she did her own investigating and voted for Biden in '20 and can't wait to vote for Kamala and Colin Allred in the coming weeks.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, linux said:

Can you link to this? is it 3% higher for voter registration? aka 1,000 vs 1,030 or is it 3.1 higher in total voting universe? 

I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1.  That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1.  That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.

I still think that is manageable, I was worrying about a large migration moving the whole universe numbers by 3% which would be insurmountable.

NVM saw the tweet that does look bad.

Edited by linux
Posted (edited)

"Other" is the second largest voter group, as of July 2024.  (November 2020 in parenthesis)

GOP - 35.41 (35.24)
Dem - 29.1 (32.2)
Independent - 33.95 (31.67)

Edited by Js1
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Posted
10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020.  Hard to be confident that could be overcome.

Independents make up 33% of AZ RVs.

The numbers he's citing come from before the switch to Harris.

2022 was R+8 and we see how well that went for the GOP.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

Obviously the best thing would be to flip Texas, but maybe the second best thing would be for Texas to become a Republican vote sink. If a bunch of blue collar midwestern types move here to work in the oil patch or related industries, it might relieve some pressure from the blue wall states, and swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.   

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This would be depressing 

 

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

She only won in 2022 by 7.4 after the Dem was eliminated.  If you gave her the Dems' total in the first round, she would have won without going to RCV.  And Alaska just keeps creeping a tiny bit bluer. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
16 minutes ago, locodos said:

If only there were some tried and true way to get a certain cohort to vote...  Georgia got any ideas?

I recommend watching past the 1 minute mark.... vote, vote, vote, stretch, vote...

Workaholics GIF

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Independents make up 33% of AZ RVs.

The numbers he's citing come from before the switch to Harris.

2022 was R+8 and we see how well that went for the GOP.

I'd like to know where Cohn is getting his numbers

 

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Posted

 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

 

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

So now that means the blue wall is life, Omaha at +7 might as well be safe.

As for the Senate I will gladly take that faustain bargain. But still feel confident too that 150 year record exists for a reason.

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Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

I'd like to know where Cohn is getting his numbers

 

From what I posted, which is on the official AZ site, from July 2024.  GOP has a +6.31 advantage, but independents are 33.95% of registered voters

GOP was +4.01 with independents at 33.89 in 2022
GOP was +3.04 with independents at 31.67 in 2020

I would not be that surprised if more young voters are registered as independent, because we've seen that in other state.  They are more likely to vote Dem, but less likely to pick a party.  

Arizona should release another update next month

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

From what I posted, which is on the official AZ site, from July 2024.  GOP has a +6.31 advantage, but independents are 33.95% of registered voters

GOP was +4.01 with independents at 33.89 in 2022
GOP was +3.04 with independents at 31.67 in 2020

I would not be that surprised if more young voters are registered as independent, because we've seen that in other state.  They are more likely to vote Dem, but less likely to pick a party.  

Arizona should release another update next month

It is not meant as me being an asshole but gross numbers are so much easier at least for me I can do that them math in my head.

It seems that in terms of the whole electoral universe it all just boils down to Independents and who they pick.



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