Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread

[MixtyMotions 102]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

You mean the poll that was conducted before last week's testimony?

Yes.  The poll that was conducted during the pre-hearing media frenzy.

[ERhine 1894]

A poll just came out in North Dakota.  Cramer is ahead of Heitkamp by TEN!  I'm sure this megamove is related to the SCOTUS situation. 
I meet weekly on a committee that coordinates county campaign activity.  The committee gets reports and makes decisions on how to spend money and use manpower.  We have seen a noticeable difference in the stats (e.g. percentage of houses taking signs from door knockers).  The GOP is noticeably more angry.  I wouldn't be surprised if Dems are too.
I think this is dicey for candidates in purple states and ominous for Dems in Red states or Pubs in Blue states.

Can one of the mods go ahead and rename Mixty to reflect that it’s actually Tahoe?

[Incredulity 11440]

Just now, ERhine said:

 

Can one of the mods go ahead and rename DD to reflect that it’s actually AustinTX71?

 

 

[Js1 84995]

7 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

A poll just came out in North Dakota.  Cramer is ahead of Heitkamp by TEN!  I'm sure this megamove is related to the SCOTUS situation. 

I meet weekly on a committee that coordinates county campaign activity.  The committee gets reports and makes decisions on how to spend money and use manpower.  We have seen a noticeable difference in the stats (e.g. percentage of houses taking signs from door knockers).  The GOP is noticeably more angry.  I wouldn't be surprised if Dems are too.

I think this is dicey for candidates in purple states and ominous for Dems in Red states or Pubs in Blue states.

[MixtyMotions 102]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

There's already a discussion on this in the appropriate thread, Tahoe.

The issue I raise is not one about the elections.  While admittedly unstated, the point I'm making is that Red state Democrats like Heitkamp may vote for confirmation.  Or pay the price.  There was a poll a month or so ago which had Manchin up 29 if he voted for confirmation and up 2 if her didn't.

It may not be all about Flake, Collins and Murkowski.  Some Dems may not be willing to walk the plank.

[MixtyMotions 102]

5 minutes ago, ERhine said:

 

Can one of the mods go ahead and rename Mixty to reflect that it’s actually Tahoe?

 

The poster formerly known as TahoeHorn left Lake Tahoe 19 years ago.  A username was poorly chosen over twenty years ago. 

[Chuckie Finster 22571]

3 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

The issue I raise is not one about the elections.  While admittedly unstated, the point I'm making is that Red state Democrats like Heitkamp may vote for confirmation.  Or pay the price.  There was a poll a month or so ago which had Manchin up 29 if he voted for confirmation and up 2 if her didn't.

 It may not be all about Flake, Collins and Murkowski.  Some Dems may not be willing to walk the plank.

Hey everybody, check out this expert analysis!  Breathtaking stuff here, really.  

Sarcasm aside, I made this very point last week.  If he's going to pass, then I encourage any Democrat who feels threatened to vote Yes too.  But if it looks like he doesn't have the votes, it would be political suicide for any Democrat to be the one that pushes him forward.  I imagine there will be many calls made between the offices of the red Dems and the moderate Republicans over the next few days.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Pig Bellmont 8664]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17923574/brett-kavanaugh-ford-hearing-lies-republicans

 

”Using both a large-scale survey and a lab experiment, Hahl and his colleagues demonstrate that people are shockingly willing to look past lies from someone who they feel represents their group. Instead, the lies are seen in the broader context of what supporters see as a “deeper truth” — in this case, that Kavanaugh is an innocent target of a Democratic smear campaign.”

[MixtyMotions 102]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Hey everybody, check out this expert analysis!  Breathtaking stuff here, really.  

Heitkamp might walk the plank at zero but not at minus ten.  Damn right it's breathtaking!

[DDD Dad 14144]

3 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

The poster formerly known as TahoeHorn left Lake Tahoe 19 years ago.  A username was poorly chosen over twenty years ago. 

We're hungry.  Can you go get some donuts?

[DDD Dad 14144]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17923574/brett-kavanaugh-ford-hearing-lies-republicans

 

”Using both a large-scale survey and a lab experiment, Hahl and his colleagues demonstrate that people are shockingly willing to look past lies from someone who they feel represents their group. Instead, the lies are seen in the broader context of what supporters see as a “deeper truth” — in this case, that Kavanaugh is an innocent target of a Democratic smear campaign.”

I thought this was a fascinating piece.  

In sum, we believe Kavanaugh even with the lies because we want a conservative on the court and are willing to ignore facts right in front of us.

[Bozo_Casanova 26180]

The poster formerly known as TahoeHorn left Lake Tahoe 19 years ago.  A username was poorly chosen over twenty years ago. 

Welcome back, man.

[Pig Bellmont 8664]

Just now, DDD Dad said:

I thought this was a fascinating piece.  

In sum, we believe Kavanaugh even with the lies because we want a conservative on the court and are willing to ignore facts right in front of us.

Yeah, I guess it’s a variant on the tribal mentality. It explains why Kavanaugh can have this support but also really depressed me about the voting populous 

[MixtyMotions 102]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Welcome back, man.

I doubt that I'm back.  I will guess my presence will be only for a few issues for which I want to get the pulse of the Left" on.  I've grown tired of the usual thread.  My two plus month hiatus was broken by this issue, not a longing for sophomoric crap.

But we'll see.  Maybe I'm a social drinker who drinks only at big parties. Maybe I'm an addict and I can't stay sober, and the two month hiatus was not the norm.

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

18 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

The poster formerly known as TahoeHorn left Lake Tahoe 19 years ago.  A username was poorly chosen over twenty years ago. 

Also six months ago. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Also six months ago. 

Makes you wonder how many other names he has. 

[seven 1366]

Nice of Tahoe to finally admit the modern gop is "sophomoric crap" 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

8 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

I doubt that I'm back.  I will guess my presence will be only for a few issues for which I want to get the pulse of the Left" on.  I've grown tired of the usual thread.  My two plus month hiatus was broken by this issue, not a longing for sophomoric crap.

But we'll see.  Maybe I'm a social drinker who drinks only at big parties. Maybe I'm an addict and I can't stay sober, and the two month hiatus was not the norm.

Just don't whip your dick out at those big parties.  It could come back to haunt you. 

[wildcat09 29146]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Sessions is all but certain to be out as AG after the midterms.

His replacement all but certainly has to be a Senator or recent Senator to get confirmed.

Graham would be able to wield more power and influence as AG. He could also undo much of the evil shit Sessions has done as it relates to civil rights and immigration.  He would also neutralize Stephen Miller who Graham hates. 

Lindsey is playing the game.  If he were a character in Game of Thrones, he would be Littlefinger.

I’m not condoning what Graham is doing but I’m telling you what I see going on.

I also think Graham’s strategy has a very limited chance of success with the costs being extremely high. 

For fuck's sake man, stop pretending that any of them are working to subvert Trump. They're along for the ride. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Just don't whip your dick out at those big parties.  It could come back to haunt you. 

No way, who needs that kind of ridicule, now or later.   

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

For fuck's sake man, stop pretending that any of them are working to subvert Trump. They're along for the ride. 

They're out for self interest. 

That's how my I'm calculating this. 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

No way, who needs that kind of ridicule, now or later.   

You popped your head up pretty fast on that one, considering it wasn't directed towards you.

Sorry about your pee-pee, OB.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

So the Ramirez texts and perjury allegation are becoming very well known.  Don’t think that will escape the fence sitters in the Senate. Hell, they probably knew before we peons did   

Once again, it’ll be the coverup that nails somebody.  

[wildcat09 29146]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

They're out for self interest. 

That's how my I'm calculating this. 

And their self interest is tied to Trump.

[Fozzz 152]

I love that in this analogy #believeallwomen and the #metoo movement is akin to violent white segregationism.  Rich Lowry is so gotdamn smert.  

Quote

Exactly what has made Atticus Finch such an honored figure in our culture would make him a very inconvenient man at many college campuses today, where charges of sexual misconduct are adjudicated without the accused being allowed to confront the accuser or make use of other key features of our system of justice. Finch is a rebuke to the shift from a presumption of innocence toward a presumption of guilt that now attends accusations of sexual harassment and assault. He didn’t believe that someone’s being accused of something is enough to establish his wrongdoing, or accept that a category of people were, by definition, to be under a pall of suspicion.

Atticus Finch is not the man for this moment, but we need him, and his reasoned yet unshakable commitment to fairness and justice, more than ever.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/atticus-finch-was-on-the-wrong-side/

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

And their self interest is tied to Trump.

For the moment, yes. 

The smart ones know there is a much longer game to play.

Who will be the Hans Landa of the Trump administration?

 

 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

41 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

Yes.  The poll that was conducted during the pre-hearing media frenzy.

Easy come, easy go.  

[ERhine 1894]

Who will be the Hans Landa of the Trump administration?

 
 

There won’t be.

[hayden_horn 11358]

16 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Makes you wonder how many other names he has. 

nah, man. tahoe is tahoe. he's a true believer, but he's not a troll.

[wildcat09 29146]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

For the moment, yes. 

The smart ones know there is a much longer game to play.

Who will be the Hans Landa of the Trump administration?

 

 

The fictional Hans Landa probably regretted his decision when he got a swastika carved into his head with a bowie knife.

These guys know they're going to be pariahs if the GOP ever loses power. That's why they're doing everything they can to retain it. It's not any more complicated than that.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

2 minutes ago, ERhine said:

 

There won’t be.

 

Disagree, the whole administration is filled with Hans Landas. 

So many corrupt backstabbing assholes. 

[triplehorn 2664]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So the Ramirez texts and perjury allegation are becoming very well known.  Don’t think that will escape the fence sitters in the Senate. Hell, they probably knew before we peons did   

Once again, it’ll be the coverup that nails somebody.  

Brett to the Senate Judiciary Committee, under oath:

Kavanaugh was asked by Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, when he first heard of Ramirez’s allegations. Kavanaugh answered: “In the New Yorker story.”

Not a case of mis-remembering, or a partial truth. 

It's an obvious intentional lie for meaningful and purposeful deception, i.e. elementary perjury.

 

But go ahead an confirm him, Mitch:

 

[lemonlime 5503]

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

9 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

nah, man. tahoe is tahoe. he's a true believer, but he's not a troll.

No one would trust a troll to fetch the donuts. 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Disagree, the whole administration is filled with Hans Landas. 

So many corrupt backstabbing assholes. 

The glass half-full side tells me that the Nazi regime was full of incompetent, bumbling, back stabbing assholes that eventually cratered the whole system in on itself.  The down side is it took a world war and a hundreds of millions of people killed to get to the fall.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

The glass half-full side tells me that the Nazi regime was full of incompetent, bumbling, back stabbing assholes that eventually cratered the whole system in on itself.  The down side is it took a world war and a hundreds of millions of people killed to get to the fall.  

I would say that glass is not quite half.

[hayden_horn 11358]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

The glass half-full side tells me that the Nazi regime was full of incompetent, bumbling, back stabbing assholes that eventually cratered the whole system in on itself.  The down side is it took a world war and a hundreds of millions of people killed to get to the fall.  

the nazi regime was full of efficient assholes. it was hitler's crass arrogance that lost them the war.

[Chad Fuck 17455]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I would say that glass is not quite half.

You're right.  I may need to reconsider.  

 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

the nazi regime was full of efficient assholes. it was hitler's crass arrogance that lost them the war.

Only at the lower levels.  At the top it was a collection of self-absorbed assholes who were busy working on their own fiefdoms to actually run anything efficiently.  Only exception was Albert Speer, but this whole thing is a massive digression.

Let's get back to waiting for McConnell to push through an arrogant, self-absorbed asshole to SCOTUS.

[bad_teammate 13115]

Something that has bugged me about Kavanaugh's testimony is his clear inability to truly accept fault for things.

When discussing his yearbook entry, he said the editors of the yearbook wanted it to be like Animal House. In Kavanaugh's mind, it is the editors' fault that he chose his yearbook text. It's their fault that he made the references he did. And it's everyone else's fault for reading what he wrote and drawing the obvious conclusions from it.

He's a truly terrible person.

[Chad Fuck 17455]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Something that has bugged me about Kavanaugh's testimony is his clear inability to truly accept fault for things.

When discussing his yearbook entry, he said the editors of the yearbook wanted it to be like Animal House. In Kavanaugh's mind, it is the editors' fault that he chose his yearbook text. It's their fault that he made the references he did. And it's everyone else's fault for reading what he wrote and drawing the obvious conclusions from it.

He's a truly terrible person.

And 100% of the same cloth as the President.  It's always "the media" or "the Dems" or anyone else he can plug in.  Never take responsibility, ever.

['stache 21729]

2 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Based on everything we've learned, if I had to stake my life on one version of events, what I think happened is that Dr. Ford is 100% telling the truth in her description of events and what she reasonably thought was happening, but Kavanaugh had no intention of raping her.   It was a sexual assault via groping and unwanted sexual contact over clothing (still a serious crime), and Kavanaugh was wasted.  He knows he did it, even though he may be hazy on details, and is lying about it, perhaps by rationalizing that he didn't really want to rape her, he was too drunk to be responsible, etc.)

If he had come out from the start and apologized, said he's heartbroken at how Dr. Ford perceived the events, that he acted inappropriately as a teenager then and with Ms. Ramirez (who I also think is telling the truth), but that he would never and did never try to rape anyone, that he got his drinking under control, has lived his adult life being respectful to women, etc., that would be one thing.   Instead, he's lied about like a dozen things.  It's a disgrace that the GOP is going to put him on the Supreme Court. 

I don't think he intended to rape her, and I don't think he's a rapist.  I think he was a rich prick, entitled douchebag, who had many consensual groping interactions with females.  This girl didn't like it and let him know it and he probably took it as "playing hard to get" and kept at it until it finally ended.  I can honestly believe that he totally forgot about it and doesn't remember it because he was drunk as shit and the event was not memorable to him at all.  Just another girl he was with on a random night.  I don't think it even registers with a guy like this that there's anything wrong, he just struck out, no big deal.  He's just trying to get some and some frigid bitch only let him get to second base.  He probably found a girl later that night who likes rich entitled pricks and he got farther with her, and that's what he remembered the next day.  We already saw a female Trump supporter saying in front of her young daughters that groping isn't that big a deal.  He was just trying to get some, she was playing hard to get, she was drinking at a party what did she expect?  In case you hadn't noticed, what's being called out these days isn't rape per se but treatment of women as objects and groping and sexual harassment as "boys will be boys."  That shit isn't acceptable, and he should be called out for it.  That's what this is about.  He doesn't need to be a rapist to be deemed a piece of shit who treats women like shit, and ultimately a molester, which is a crime itself btw.

Edited October 2, 2018 by 'stache

[lemonlime 5503]

Classic Dotus tactics.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

11 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

The glass half-full side tells me that the Nazi regime was full of incompetent, bumbling, back stabbing assholes that eventually cratered the whole system in on itself.  The down side is it took a world war and a hundreds of millions of people killed to get to the fall.  

The Nazis had something much more seductive than the Trump Administration holding it together.  They had an actual vision for Germany they were trying to achieve.  There were far more true believers in the ranks and they were much better at suppressing dissent. 

Almost everyone knows Trump is an idiot.  The world laughed in his face last week.  He also has no strategic long term vision.  His goal is to crush whatever obstacles are directly in front of him and protect himself from external threats.  

[hayden_horn 11358]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Something that has bugged me about Kavanaugh's testimony is his clear inability to truly accept fault for things.

When discussing his yearbook entry, he said the editors of the yearbook wanted it to be like Animal House. In Kavanaugh's mind, it is the editors' fault that he chose his yearbook text. It's their fault that he made the references he did. And it's everyone else's fault for reading what he wrote and drawing the obvious conclusions from it.

He's a truly terrible person.

this is the legacy of that testimony, and i think it got lost in the GOP grandstanding that took place, and that was by design. i have to give flake some credit for playing this. even during the GOP grandstanding, all he said was something benign about respecting people. 

but ultimately, this guy's divorce with the truth is the biggest problem, even if he did not assault dr ford. think about the things about which he has lied. these are simple fucking things that most people would accept as "well, we were all stupid kids once." but he can't own that. he has to be this "hard working, captain of the basketball team guy who worked his tail off to get into yale all by hisself" person that doesn't exist. guess what, asshole? if you went to fenway and got trashed at a baseball game in college, that's okay! we all did shit like that. sometimes, we still do. i'm going to dallas this weekend, and i'll make no promises about my behavior. if the democrats try to pin blackout drunk on you, it's okay to say "yeah, i drank to excess sometimes during high school and college, when most young people are exploring their boundaries." if they try and suggest that you assaulted dr ford during a blackout, you say "that's not the kind of person i am. i may have made a clumsy pass at her while drunk, but i have no recollection of events as she describes them." DONE. you're gonna get confirmed by a republican majority, dude. don't lie about stupid shit. 

that he decided to lie about stupid shit should be automatically disqualifying, if his shameful partisan opening statement wasn't already.

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think he intended to rape her, and I don't think he's a rapist.  I think he was a rich prick, entitled douchebag, who had many consensual groping interactions with females.  This girl didn't like it and let him know it and he probably took it as "playing hard to get" and kept at it until it finally ended.  I can honestly believe that he totally forgot about it and doesn't remember it because he was drunk as shit and the event was not memorable to him at all.  Just another girl he was with on a random night.  I don't think it even registers with a guy like this that there's anything wrong, he just struck out, no big deal.  He's just trying to get some and some frigid bitch only let him get to second base.  He probably found a girl later that night who likes rich entitled pricks and he got farther with her, and that's what he remembered the next day.  We already saw a female Trump supporter saying in front of her young daughters that groping isn't that big a deal.  He was just trying to get some, she was playing hard to get, she was drinking at a party what did she expect?  In case you hadn't noticed, what's being called out these days isn't rape per se but treatment of women as objects and groping and sexual harassment as "boys will be boys."  That shit isn't acceptable, and he should be called out for it.  That's what this is about.  He doesn't need to be a rapist to be deemed a piece of shit who treats women like shit, and ultimately a molester, which is a crime btw.

i think he and his drunk friend saw a target for bullying. maybe they didn't intend to rape her, just scare her for some laughs. that's what she remembers most - their laughter.  "they were having a very good time together," or something similar. that's what they were doing. they saw her, an underclassmen female, and decided to give her a scare for some laughs.

the thing is, what they did isn't actually funny. it's classic bully behavior, but nothing about this cat's demeanor indicates that he is anything but a bully, including how he interrupted and turned questions back on the senators, especially the klobuchar bit. i notice he didn't bother to apologize to the male senators he interrupted. he apologized to klobuchar because someone got in his ear in the break. he has no moral compass. he's a entitled rich kid bully prick. that's it. i cannot imagine what the rest of the SC thinks of this asshole.

[Chad Fuck 17455]

 

6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The Nazis had something much more seductive than the Trump Administration holding it together.  They had an actual vision for Germany they were trying to achieve.  There were far more true believers in the ranks and they were much better at suppressing dissent. 

Almost everyone knows Trump is an idiot.  The world laughed in his face last week.  He also has no strategic long term vision.  His goal is to crush whatever obstacles are directly in front of him and protect himself from external threats.  

Fair.

I was also being glib, since we were discussing a fictional Nazi character.  

[hayden_horn 11358]

24 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Only at the lower levels.  At the top it was a collection of self-absorbed assholes who were busy working on their own fiefdoms to actually run anything efficiently.  Only exception was Albert Speer, but this whole thing is a massive digression.

Let's get back to waiting for McConnell to push through an arrogant, self-absorbed asshole to SCOTUS.

very fair point. however, even with the jockeying up at the top, they very nearly pulled off the actual reich. if hitler doesn't get a bug up his ass about the soviets, they may have well have been able to take the fight to the americans and the brits. 

i know conventional wisdom (and axis and allies boardgame) indicate that US involvement in the war led to a foregone conclusion, but i'm not certain of that. we may have well focused our resources on the pacific if it looked like europe was a lost cause. 

[Nolacycling 893]

4 hours ago, G650 said:

Is this serious? I got an 1100 on it in 7th fucking grade. 800 is basically retarded. 

Your name isn't worth any points. The question comes from the flip remark that, because the minimum score on the SAT is 600 (200 each for the Critical Reading, Mathematics, and Writing components), you get 600 points for just for filling in your name

[G650 13847]

3 minutes ago, Nolacycling said:

Your name isn't worth any points. The question comes from the flip remark that, because the minimum score on the SAT is 600 (200 each for the Critical Reading, Mathematics, and Writing components), you get 600 points for just for filling in your name

Um, ok?

[Chad Fuck 17455]

2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

very fair point. however, even with the jockeying up at the top, they very nearly pulled off the actual reich. if hitler doesn't get a bug up his ass about the soviets, they may have well have been able to take the fight to the americans and the brits. 

i know conventional wisdom (and axis and allies boardgame) indicate that US involvement in the war led to a foregone conclusion, but i'm not certain of that. we may have well focused our resources on the pacific if it looked like europe was a lost cause. 

I disagree, but imma quit Nazi'ing up the CR.  

Has anyone yet mentioned in this thread "Everything Trump touches dies"?  Because it seems like this would be another opportune moment for that.  

Any normal President would have withdrawn the nominee.  Any decent nominee would have withdrawn themselves from consideration for the good of the Court and the Country.  Trump is like a giant anus, a gaping black hole if you will, that sucks in all the shit in the universe, while simultaneously spewing it.  He's like a shit spitting shit magnet.

Oh yeah, also, The Best People.