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Posted
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

The drop is miniscule generally in any recession.  The pandemic was different but despite the world shutting down for a year, the average person is shocked to learn how little crude demand dropped. There have been two exceptions to crude demand generally being steady during recessions. The Depression and Covid. 

You might want to study up on the Smoot-Hawley Act.

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Posted

^^
Different set of circumstances now - we were already in a depression then and did not have trillions in foreign debts to contend with. 
Will Orange Guy blink first? 
Who knows, he’s such a loose cannon anything could happen.

Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

How long can the oil industry shoulder 60 dollars per barrel without laying the fuck off people and shutting down any field expansion, or even re-working older wells?

The rig count is down for sure (a six percent decline from this time last year), so there are fewer workers getting shit done out in the patch already right now, but I haven’t heard of any mass layoffs yet.

Posted

Chevron announced a 20% personnel reduction well before the tariffs, but I wonder if they projected this. COP and XOM have been real quiet. COP’s first move to reduce costs is always layoffs. They pay well, but they are allegedly a nightmare to work for. 

Posted

WTI with a nice little $2 bump today. Creeping up close to $65, which would be a 2-week high. Bit of a relief rally after dropping to $56 at one point last Wednesday morning.

I know several folks whose companies were in the middle of trying to divest an asset package or brokers trying to close out mineral deals and they have not been sleeping all that comfortably lately.

Posted
On 4/15/2025 at 8:40 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

Chevron announced a 20% personnel reduction well before the tariffs, but I wonder if they projected this. COP and XOM have been real quiet. COP’s first move to reduce costs is always layoffs. They pay well, but they are allegedly a nightmare to work for. 

It's worse than that. Publicly announced a 30% reduction in San Ramon, and internally I know it's at least a 25% reduction in Houston. IT and other services are going to get hammered because they are planning to off shore a total of 9500 jobs to ENGINE in India. Stuff like legal, finance, tax, accounting, auditors, reservoir engineers and lots of IT services are already stood up over there. The total reduction is much more than 20% because they are adding a few thousand new Indian employees to the total, which hides some of the losses. 

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Posted
On 4/17/2025 at 9:50 PM, Dutchrudder said:

It's worse than that. Publicly announced a 30% reduction in San Ramon, and internally I know it's at least a 25% reduction in Houston. IT and other services are going to get hammered because they are planning to off shore a total of 9500 jobs to ENGINE in India. Stuff like legal, finance, tax, accounting, auditors, reservoir engineers and lots of IT services are already stood up over there. The total reduction is much more than 20% because they are adding a few thousand new Indian employees to the total, which hides some of the losses. 

I just checked their job postings: India- 157 US- 4. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Archer said:

I just checked their job postings: India- 157 US- 4. 

Yup, they are adding several hundred new employees in India this year, and several thousand more over the next 2-3 years.  I think Chevron has around 46000 employees globally right now, so 20% total reduction is 9200 jobs lost (not all are in the US). But you have to add the ~600 jobs added in India that are masking some of it, and the reality is that it's closer to 10,000 layoffs in 2025 alone. A lot of that will come from San Ramon as they exit California, and give people the option to move to Houston to keep their jobs, but they expect a good portion of those folks to decline it and make an exit. I heard around 2000 of the layoffs will be in the Houston area, but that number also includes retirements too, which could be a substantial amount given the age of the workforce. 

When asked during a town hall if there would be any guarantee that there won't be more layoffs next year, the new CIO dismissed the question and wouldn't say anything reassuring against that idea. So there will likely be another round of re-org next year too as they add more people in India and remove their counterpart positions. Exxon and Shell moved a bunch of services to India a few years ago, and now Chevron and BP are following that path. Supposedly the lack cost savings from India is what's keeping Chevron from being higher rated than 3/4th in their Top 5 O&G benchmark analysis. 

 

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Posted
15 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Supposedly the lack cost savings from India is what's keeping Chevron from being higher rated than 3/4th in their Top 5 O&G benchmark analysis. 

Not finding a single bbl of oil via exploration since their Ballymore discovery in 2018 is a bigger reason but admitting it would impact executive bonuses. Can’t be having that.

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Posted
On 5/6/2025 at 8:43 PM, Sawbonz said:

I read OPEC is ok with $40 a barrel. That seems bad. Is that bad?

I had lunch with a friend that just got in under the wire at XOM. 5 years as a contractor, overcame some personal shit, and now finally an employee. His entire department is expecting a raise in October. I’m really happy for him.

Good time to be at a big shop to ride this shit out. 

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Posted
4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I ignored that. I’m talking about the commentary surrounding diminished supply and robust demand for commodities. Pretty real world stuff, and yeah, Adam is my boy. Glad I shared. I’m about to abandon the site. 

Toughen up snowflake.

I agree with his analysis of diminishing supply/peak shale output due to the nature of the reservoirs, but I've heard a few other people explain that in the past. I didn't know what else from it should be required viewing.

Sorry, I fully admit my bias was in play prior to even listening to the parts that I did, but it's hard not to when he chose what he did to put on the cover of his vid and chose this picture of himself.

image.png.e9fe4f3620c253843ce386b8a1fb14a3.png

Smarmy level = 99  I guess Judge Smails had to borrow his hat? 

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Posted
17 hours ago, The Royal We said:

Sorry, I fully admit my bias was in play prior to even listening to the parts that I did, but it's hard not to when he chose what he did to put on the cover of his vid and chose this picture of himself.

image.png.e9fe4f3620c253843ce386b8a1fb14a3.png

Smarmy level = 99  I guess Judge Smails had to borrow his hat? 

image.gif.505a83ba3da21bd972672438f332b904.gif

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Posted

WTI catching a breather after the UK and China "deals." Up $6 from last Monday's low. I don't see much chance of a prolonged rally anytime soon, but hopeful that the near-term price floor has moved up closer to $60 than $50.

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Posted
On 4/23/2025 at 9:39 AM, Rex Kramer said:

My SIL started training, as he said, his replacement I think late August last year.   Shell has been a great company for him, but like I told him as a kid who grew up in O&G, be ready to pull the emergency cord anytime past 50 years old.  He's smart. They are banking, and serious savers.  Ultimately the only thing preventing a lot more off shore engineering is the language barrier. 

I don't think he is thrilled about $60 a barrel oil. If things go that way.  I assume Eagle Ford is still viable at $60?  

 

Posted
9 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Some, but a lot of development will stop at $60. Shell probably doesn’t fall into that category. I think oil could be a bit of a roller coaster the entirety of Trump’s term. Unless we have warm winters, I don’t see the same with gas. 

My memory was that $60 was sort of the breaking point for smaller independents for additional exploration. But wasn't sure if advances in Technology might have pushed that number lower? 

I just remember meeting a lot of folks in Corpus when I was remodeling a foreclosure we bought.  I was just wondering if all the production folks down there were going to be able to keep their jobs or not at $60 a barrel?  None of those guys working on/off shifts seemed to save much if any of their money.  But they had a good time on their time off!  

 

Posted

Texas drilling permits drop 50% – local energy expert to weigh in on Trump tariffs

ODESSA, Texas (KMID/KPEJ) – Texas drilling permits decreased 50% last month from a multiple of factors including President Trump’s tariffs and a decrease in oil prices.

ABC Big 2’s Chris Talley caught up with Kirk Edwards, a local energy expert, and President/CEO of Latigo Petroleum as he weighs in on President Trump’s recent effects on the Texas oil and gas industry.

“I think the industry’s in shock because [President Trump] had 100% of the oil and gas industry behind him”, said Edwards.

“Major, big independents, Diamondback, Koterra, EOG, Matador, have all announced they’re going to lay rigs down. They’re going to drop, two to three rigs apiece, and you start adding that up, it’s going to be a pretty significant hit to us here in the Permian,” explained Edwards, President and CEO of Latigo Petroleum.

Edwards said what this means for oil company stocks “The earnings were good for a lot of these companies. It’s going to be second, third, fourth quarter earnings that are going to be hit, and I think that’s why you’re seeing some of these stocks hit right now, because they may have had a good first quarter, but they’re foretelling people right now, hey, we’re not going to drill as much, we’re not going to spend as much money, we’re going to slow down.”

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Posted
3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

“I think the industry’s in shock because [President Trump] had 100% of the oil and gas industry behind him”, said Edwards.

It always amazes me just how dumb O&G guys are. They never learn from history and consistently vote against their own best interests.

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Posted
On 5/8/2025 at 7:11 AM, The Royal We said:

Meanwhile, over here in the real world. Would de-dollarisation drive this mythical King Dollar! your boy Adam is talking about?

it’s the new King Cotton.  Look how well that worked out.

Posted
1 hour ago, horn4life said:

My memory was that $60 was sort of the breaking point for smaller independents for additional exploration. But wasn't sure if advances in Technology might have pushed that number lower? 

I just remember meeting a lot of folks in Corpus when I was remodeling a foreclosure we bought.  I was just wondering if all the production folks down there were going to be able to keep their jobs or not at $60 a barrel?  None of those guys working on/off shifts seemed to save much if any of their money.  But they had a good time on their time off!  

 

 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Edwards isn’t dumb. He’s a Horn, unabashed Republican and attention whore, but he’s not dumb. He knew how Trump would act with respect to oil, and that he doesn’t give a fuck (as he should not in his position). Kirk is making very intentional comments, because it benefits Kirk and possibly has the impact of benefitting the industry. 

Yeah, you’re not convincing me.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Goddamn can’t even keep the CR bullshit out of this thread either. It’s every thread on this site being ruined by the same 5-6 posters.

You want to talk about the O&G industry without talking about local and global politics?

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