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Posted
10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As a thought exercise imagine a scenario where a team plays the top 12 (other) teams in the nation for their entire season schedule. Assume all games are decided by exactly a field goal. What should their record have to be to "deserve" to be in the 12-team playoff? Additionally, assume that whatever record you pick, their results match the rankings of the opponents. So if you say 9-3 that means they only lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams and beat #4-12.

If you were looking strictly at what power ratings would say and wanting the top 12 teams in the playoff you could make an argument that 2-10 is good enough. Because based on their results the only thing you can guess objectively is they are the #11 team in the nation. They only lost to #1-10 and they beat #11 and #12.

Obviously that would feel absurd though. But I would absolutely argue for a 6-6 team with that schedule to get into the playoff.

This only works in a closed system. Because now add to the discussion team 13, who only played nine of the top 12 and wins seven (one more than your fictional team. The rest of their schedule is between 15-20, and they win all of those convincingly.  And maybe some of the top 15-20 would match up really well with your fictional team and could knock them off.
 

There will always be some eye test and human judgment in an NCAA playoff. 
 

 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Let's inject some facts here.  OU beat #14 by 6 on the road, Texas beat #9 by 3 at home.  Not a lot of difference there.

Moreover, we were ranked behind OU before Saturday's games, with a better strength of schedule and a head to head beatdown, so your assertion above is irrelevant.

And yes, the polls mean nothing.  The CFP rankings will be interesting, and I'd be surprised if we don't flip spots with OU there.

not irrelevant, you provide one additional fact to help these folks calm down. it does not negate anything I said.  we were not going to magically leap frog OU after beating vandy at home for all the reasons. valid, stupid or immaterial notwithstanding.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
19 minutes ago, immamac said:

Garbage time TDs and points for vandy they watched. They know it was a blowout and refs gambling fixed it to the line. 

voters who don't watch don't know. either that or they just are fuckery assholes.

Posted
9 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

voters who don't watch don't know. either that or they just are fuckery assholes.

CFP committee isn't random voters. They definitely watched. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

CFP committee isn't random voters. They definitely watched. 

Oh for sure I thought we were talking poll fuckery.

i’d bet good money Texas is ahead of OU in the first CFP ranking 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted
18 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

not irrelevant, you provide one additional fact to help these folks calm down. it does not negate anything I said.  we were not going to magically leap frog OU after beating vandy at home for all the reasons. valid, stupid or immaterial notwithstanding.

I agree, my point is that we shouldn't have been behind OU even before the Vandy game.  Once that part of the cake was baked, though, there was little reason for pollsters to vote differently.

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Posted

Interesting stuff and goes back to my point that one place of difference between teams at the 10 or below spot is mostly just noise. I don’t have the energy to count but Texas may lead OU on more ballots than not. A quick scan says that the Kentucky and LSU voters have Texas farthest behind OU. The A&M voter has Texas at 11 and ahead of OU. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.3fea205afbcda35d09b60abf3309c862.jpeg

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Posted

Ahead of the first CFP, taking stock (forgetting the dumbassery of the AP)

OU:

Best wins:
#21 Michigan (home) - two scores
#23 Tennessee (road) - one score
Auburn (home) - one score

Losses:
#7 Ole Miss (home) - two scores
#13 Texas (neutral) - three scores

Texas:

Best wins:
#11 OU (neutral) - three scores
#15 Vandy (home) - one score
Miss St (road) - one score

Losses:
#1 Ohio St (road) - one score
Florida (road) - one score

Similar in many respects. But head to head should matter.

We rank 9 and OU 11 on SOR, FPI 8 vs 16. SOS 11 vs 12

But again, head to fucking head. 

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Posted

I think we will be ahead of ou in tomorrow's polls. I am shocked we aren't in the AP and coaches. A little weird, but who cares. The first poll that matters is tomorrow. I'd put us at 11 or 12. Oklahoma at 13 or so. 

I'd be SHOCKED if Ohio State isn't No. 1, just because they are still undefeated and last year's champs. A&M might be no. 2. Wouldn't surprise me. They've been impressive. I love that we are right in this thing. Can't wait to see how the year ends. 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dignan said:

I think we will be ahead of ou in tomorrow's polls. I am shocked we aren't in the AP and coaches. A little weird, but who cares. The first poll that matters is tomorrow. I'd put us at 11 or 12. Oklahoma at 13 or so. 

I'd be SHOCKED if Ohio State isn't No. 1, just because they are still undefeated and last year's champs. A&M might be no. 2. Wouldn't surprise me. They've been impressive. I love that we are right in this thing. Can't wait to see how the year ends. 

 

If A&M is No. 1 tomorrow night, I think you can guarantee a loss to Mizzou. So I am rooting for them to be No. 1. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Ahead of the first CFP, taking stock (forgetting the dumbassery of the AP)

OU:

Best wins:
#21 Michigan (home) - two scores
#23 Tennessee (road) - one score
Auburn (home) - one score

Losses:
#7 Ole Miss (home) - two scores
#13 Texas (neutral) - three scores

Texas:

Best wins:
#11 OU (neutral) - three scores
#15 Vandy (home) - one score
Miss St (road) - one score

Losses:
#1 Ohio St (road) - one score
Florida (road) - one score

Similar in many respects. But head to head should matter.

We rank 9 and OU 11 on SOR, FPI 8 vs 16. SOS 11 vs 12

But again, head to fucking head. 

and head to head neutral site.

Posted
8 hours ago, Irish Wrist Watch said:

better than Nancy Sinatra Sugartown - thanks fucking Geico (or whichever insurance scamco running that ad)

Pretty sure most folks have no idea who she is or have ever heard the song....

"Nancy Sinatra's song "Sugar Town" was released as a single in 1966. It was written by Lee Hazlewood and was included on her 1966 album, Sugar. The single peaked at #5 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in December 1966 and reached #1 on the Easy Listening chart in January 1967. "

Posted

OU lost to Ole Miss and Texas.

Texas lost to Ohio State and ... Florida.

OU should be ranked ahead of us.  

 

Don't lose to fucking Florida and it's a non-issue.  

Win the games we're supposed to win and it's a non-issue.

Win out and it's a non-issue.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hondo said:

OU lost to Ole Miss and Texas.

Texas lost to Ohio State and ... Florida.

OU should be ranked ahead of us.  

 

Don't lose to fucking Florida and it's a non-issue.  

Win the games we're supposed to win and it's a non-issue.

Win out and it's a non-issue.

John Candy No GIF by Laff

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Posted
20 minutes ago, justhookit said:

If only there was a head to head match-up of OU/Texas when discussing the 2 teams that have an equal number of losses.

Well 2008 showed us how that should go. The polls are just going with precedent.

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

After we beat Georgia and Arky....then aggy....we will be playing at home.

From your lips to God’s ears. And that the SEC refs ignore bias and under the table paychecks. 

Posted
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Thinking about Iowa and their crazy good white return man was giving me deja vu and I finally remembered Tim Dwight. He’s an all-time “oh yeah, that was a guy.” 

Why go back that far?  Not a Cooper DeJean fan?

Posted
5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

DeJean isn’t the Eagles return man this year, right? I think of him as a legit really good CB and Wetjen/Dwight as pure return specialists. 

Wetjen is also a good WR. You draw weird differentiations in order to manage where you think goalposts should lie. Dwight, Wetjen and Dejean were/all excellent college punt returners who happened to be white. Worrying about the pro performance is irrelevant. You made a good point by bringing up Dwight, and someone else mentioning Dejean was also a good point. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Russillo today went

8. ND

9. BYU

10. Tech

11. Texas

12. OU 

In his top 12 that he does. No Virginia or Louisville. 

UVA replaced Georgia Tech as the “gotta put them up there till they lose” team. Tony Elliot has done a great job and this can be a good launch point to do well in a pretty wide-open ACC in future years. Their schedule sets them up to maybe be one loss headed into the ACC CCG, although they should be careful with Duke.
 

The win over Louisville was good. Other than that they haven’t even beaten an OK team. 5-4 Cal is the closet. Most computer models have UVa with a weaker slate than Texas Tech, although Tech has outclassed their opponents. 

Posted

I wanna play Tech in the opening round so bad. They're excited but they aint ready. That would mean we beat OU, Arky, A&M, and Tech. We don't have the horses to win the whole thing but we can beat those four shit heels and send Arch into next season with some serious scalps. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Interesting stuff and goes back to my point that one place of difference between teams at the 10 or below spot is mostly just noise. I don’t have the energy to count but Texas may lead OU on more ballots than not. A quick scan says that the Kentucky and LSU voters have Texas farthest behind OU. The A&M voter has Texas at 11 and ahead of OU. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.3fea205afbcda35d09b60abf3309c862.jpeg

This site is easier than scanning that poll grid, IMO https://collegepolltracker.com/football/team/texas-longhorns/2025

 

(Has its own grid view as well where you can highlight a team on all ballots https://collegepolltracker.com/football/grid/2025/week-11#texas-longhorns)

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Posted

Matt Hayes: CFP bracket must reward best teams, not best records

Quote

It’s at this point where everyone falls in line, where 10 weeks of varying college football polls suddenly — almost magically, really — become oddly similar. Now it’s up to the College Football Playoff selection committee to figure it all out. And they were given the "tools" to do just that. In theory, anyway. “This team just won’t go away,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said after his team beat Florida late, and now hopes a resume of come-from-behind wins will plant it somewhere near the top four of the first CFP poll of the season.

Or exactly where Georgia is in both the US LBM Coaches and Associated Press polls. Those two polls played a game of footsie for two months, before falling into the comfortably numbing annual regurgitation of mirroring. That mirroring and slotting by wins is what the commissioners of the Big Ten and SEC ― you know, conferences who run the sport ― spent all offseason talking about.

They floated ideas to change the CFP selection committee, eliminate it, and give it stronger metrics. They settled on new metrics. New metrics, you say? Well, it's complicated. The selection committee is now supposed to consider good wins and bad losses, and bad wins and good losses. Basically, just analyze the schedule and not simply slot teams based on wins.

The committee's first chance to embrace that concept is Tuesday night, with its first poll of the season. But if history tells us anything, the CFP selection committee poll will closely resemble the media polls until the final poll of the season ― when the eye test supersedes all. Until then, get ready for the copycat show. The first 10 teams of the two media polls are identical, and the final two — it’s a 12-team CFP format — are swapped.

Virginia is No. 11 in the coaches poll, and No. 12 in the AP poll, and Oklahoma is its opposite. Anyone who believes Virginia is one of the top 12 teams in college football hasn’t been watching Virginia. But that’s another Indiana story (circa, 2024) for another time. A look at the projected CFP poll, with the real deal set to arrive shortly. Remember, these are the 12 best teams (we’ll figure out the five automatic qualifiers after the fact).

1. Indiana: If we’re being intellectual honest, it’s Indiana and a long way to No. 2. No one else has been so impressive. Next: at Penn State.   

2. Texas A&M: Aggies coach Mike Elko continues to pound the drum of ignoring the past. This isn’t your grandaddy’s Texas A&M — or Jimbo Fisher’s. Next: at Missouri.

3. Ohio State: For those harping on Ohio State’s strength of schedule, the combined record of FBS opponents is 35-24. Better than some in the Top 12, worse than others. Next: at Purdue. 

4. Alabama: The bye week arrived perfectly after a run of four straight games against ranked teams, and an SEC road game. It’s essentially a one-game schedule (Oklahoma, Nov. 15) on the way to the SEC championship game. Next: vs. LSU.

5. Oregon: Ducks return from the bye with a difficult November, including two difficult road environments (Iowa, Washington). Next: at Iowa. 

6. Georgia: How much longer can Georgia continue to rely on fourth quarter (or overtime) comebacks? Better not get behind this week, on the road, against a team that’s beginning to believe. Next: at Mississippi State. 

7. Ole Miss: It’s all set up for the first 11-win regular season in school history, and third-straight double-digit win season for coach Lane Kiffin in Oxford. Next: The Citadel.  

8. Texas Tech: Don’t underestimate going on the road and beating surging K-State. All eight wins have been by at least 23 points. Next: BYU.

9. Texas: For three quarters, Texas played its best game of the season against a hot team (Vanderbilt). Then almost blew it. Not buying it just yet. Next: Bye. 

10. Notre Dame: Lost both difficult games on the schedule (Miami, Texas A&M), but had chances to win both. A cakewalk November to 10 wins. Next: Navy.

11. Oklahoma: Sooners in their own personal playoff in November. Win out, and they’re in (at Alabama, Missouri, LSU). Lose once, and it’s going to be difficult to make the CFP. Next: Bye. 

12. Vanderbilt: The classic potential 10-win team that might be left out. The problem: all anyone will remember is the ugly loss to Texas — no matter what the final score says. Next: Auburn.

Five automatic qualifiers

  • Indiana (projected Big Ten champion), Alabama (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Louisville (ACC), South Florida (Group of 6).

First round byes

  • Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama.

The first round

  • (12) South Florida at (5) Oregon
  • (11) Louisville at (6) Georgia
  • (10) Notre Dame at (7) Ole Miss
  • (9) Texas at (8) Texas Tech

 

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Posted

Pat Forde: Why We’re Already Annoyed About the CFP Rankings

Quote

As athletic directors like to say when firing coaches during the season, that which must be done eventually should be done immediately. The Dash is applying that same philosophy to getting mad about the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings, which will be revealed for the first time this season Tuesday night. The weekly TV show is nice for ESPN and loudmouths in the media, but it’s a largely useless exercise that serves to undermine the committee’s credibility.

On that cheerful note, let’s get the anticipated laments on the table right away.

  • Please explain the additional weight being given to strength of schedule and strength of record (31).

In August, the CFP announced the following: “Changes for the upcoming season include enhancements to the tools that the selection committee uses to assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule. The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents. An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team. Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”

Dash reaction: Show us your work, and it cannot be on “From the Desk of Greg Sankey” letterhead. Explain the actual components of the metrics, and the “greater weight” that was added (like, how much greater weight). Publish a metrics ranking. And answer us this: What’s the respective merit placed on metrics matter vis-à-vis human appraisal? If the whole thing is being punted to a computer ranking, send up a flare.

  • How is the committee balancing good wins with bad losses (32), particularly in the case of Alabama? 

The Crimson Tide are 7–1 and have beaten four currently ranked teams—Georgia on the road, Vanderbilt, Missouri on the road and Tennessee. Nobody in the country has a better résumé of wins.

But can we talk about that loss? The one by two touchdowns to a Florida State team that is now in 15th place in the ACC? If that’s somehow not a bad loss for the Tide, then it must be a good win for 8–1 Virginia, 6–2 Miami and 7–2 Pittsburgh, which beat the Seminoles. The latter two did it in the same stadium where the Seminoles handled the Crimson Tide.

  • Is the Notre Dame mojo (33) as strong with the committee as it is with the AP and coaches poll voters? And if so, why?

The Fighting Irish have moved into the Top 10, with the home win over USC doing a lot of work on the résumé. The other wins: Big Ten last-place Purdue; SEC last-place Arkansas; three-loss Boise State; four-loss North Carolina State; ACC last-place Boston College. The loss to Miami is losing starch, given the Hurricanes’ drop to 6–2. The loss to Texas A&M remains no shame, other than the way it happened.

But the Irish are four spots ahead of Louisville (34) in the polls for reasons that are unclear beyond brand name. The Cardinals have a better record and won at Miami, where Notre Dame lost, and their lone loss is to ACC-leading Virginia in overtime. Will the committee give the Irish the same boost?

  • Will the committee gin up a fourth Big Ten contender (35) out of thin air? 

Ohio State and Indiana are the clear top two teams in the nation at present, in either order. Oregon is certainly going to be in the Top 10. But after that, the conference runs into a quality wins problem outside its own echo chamber. Among the top contenders for the fourth highest-ranked Big Ten team, here’s what they did in nonleague play: Iowa lost to Iowa State; USC lost to Notre Dame; Michigan lost to Oklahoma; Washington played nobody.

The only Big Ten members outside Ohio State that have done anything in nonconference play are a pair of three-loss teams: Illinois, which routed turnover-prone Duke in Durham, N.C.; and Nebraska, which held off Cincinnati in a virtual home game in Kansas City, Mo. (And the Cornhuskers have now lost quarterback Dylan Raiola for the year to injury.)

This is a great example why Tony Petitti wants to guarantee his league four automatic bids—because it’s going to be hard in a lot of years to find four teams capable of earning those bids on merit.

  • Reconciling Oklahoma vs. Texas (36). Putting the Sooners and Longhorns in the correct order against each other will be tricky.

Oklahoma has two significant wins, over Tennessee on the road and Michigan at home, plus two losses to ranked teams. Texas has a home win over Vanderbilt and the head-to-head win over the Sooners, plus losses to Ohio State and unranked Florida.

Oklahoma is ahead of Texas in the polls, perhaps based on the fact that quarterback John Mateer was just coming back from hand surgery when the two teams met in the Red River Rivalry game. But the game also wasn’t very close, with the Horns winning by 17 points. Subsequent results may make this an easier call. But how they start could matter.

  • Will the committee beat the late-November rush and start disrespecting the American (37) right away?

You might recall the 2021 season, in which the committee grudgingly came around to undefeated AAC champion Cincinnati, dragging its feet the entire way. With five quality teams to appraise, does more than one make the CFP Top 25? The user echelon of the league maximized its opportunities in the nonconference, with Memphis beating Arkansas, and Tulane beating both Northwestern and Duke, and South Florida beating Florida and routing Boise State. We'll see how much that translates in the rankings compared to the downstream power-conference teams.

 

Posted
18 hours ago, Hondo said:

OU lost to Ole Miss and Texas.

Texas lost to Ohio State and ... Florida.

OU should be ranked ahead of us.  

 

Don't lose to fucking Florida and it's a non-issue.  

Win the games we're supposed to win and it's a non-issue.

Win out and it's a non-issue.

Florida just had to be refballed to let Georgia win. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, satyanash said:

Matt Hayes: CFP bracket must reward best teams, not best records

 9. Texas: For three quarters, Texas played its best game of the season against a hot team (Vanderbilt). Then almost blew it. Not buying it just yet. Next: Bye. 

12. Vanderbilt: The classic potential 10-win team that might be left out. The problem: all anyone will remember is the ugly loss to Texas — no matter what the final score says. Next: Auburn. 

vandy: fake final score, ugly loss = acknowledgement of beatdown then fuckery

Texas: acknowledgement of beatdown then 'almost blew it'

i'm trying to interpret this as something other than we're somehow responsible for the fuckery

and yet he has us at 9, higher than any AP voter

/confused

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Posted
6 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

its simple cheer for everyone above us to lose, everyone we've beat to win (except fuck OU) , and everyone else below us to lose 
 

hopefully a nice chaotic weekend of good hate watching from the side lines this week

I love rooting for chaos on a bye week

Fire This Is Fine GIF

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Posted

If you’re a Texas fan, you need to hope for an ND loss and for UVA to play well and win out, staying in the top 10.A 10-2 Texas is in comfortably. A 9-3 Texas around the 11-12 spot would be sweating if the ACC and G5 champ are behind them, cause they will move up and bump. 

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Posted

A 10-2 Texas plays for the SEC title right? We would definitely be in at that point.

But probably not anything worth thinking about unless we beat Georgia. I don't know man. The football gods aren't that kind.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

A 10-2 Texas plays for the SEC title right? We would definitely be in at that point.

But probably not anything worth thinking about unless we beat Georgia. I don't know man. The football gods aren't that kind.

I don’t think we’re guaranteed the title game even if we win out. Which, meh.

Edited by Hank_Hill
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