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Posted
10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As a thought exercise imagine a scenario where a team plays the top 12 (other) teams in the nation for their entire season schedule. Assume all games are decided by exactly a field goal. What should their record have to be to "deserve" to be in the 12-team playoff? Additionally, assume that whatever record you pick, their results match the rankings of the opponents. So if you say 9-3 that means they only lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams and beat #4-12.

If you were looking strictly at what power ratings would say and wanting the top 12 teams in the playoff you could make an argument that 2-10 is good enough. Because based on their results the only thing you can guess objectively is they are the #11 team in the nation. They only lost to #1-10 and they beat #11 and #12.

Obviously that would feel absurd though. But I would absolutely argue for a 6-6 team with that schedule to get into the playoff.

This only works in a closed system. Because now add to the discussion team 13, who only played nine of the top 12 and wins seven (one more than your fictional team. The rest of their schedule is between 15-20, and they win all of those convincingly.  And maybe some of the top 15-20 would match up really well with your fictional team and could knock them off.
 

There will always be some eye test and human judgment in an NCAA playoff. 
 

 

Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Let's inject some facts here.  OU beat #14 by 6 on the road, Texas beat #9 by 3 at home.  Not a lot of difference there.

Moreover, we were ranked behind OU before Saturday's games, with a better strength of schedule and a head to head beatdown, so your assertion above is irrelevant.

And yes, the polls mean nothing.  The CFP rankings will be interesting, and I'd be surprised if we don't flip spots with OU there.

not irrelevant, you provide one additional fact to help these folks calm down. it does not negate anything I said.  we were not going to magically leap frog OU after beating vandy at home for all the reasons. valid, stupid or immaterial notwithstanding.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
19 minutes ago, immamac said:

Garbage time TDs and points for vandy they watched. They know it was a blowout and refs gambling fixed it to the line. 

voters who don't watch don't know. either that or they just are fuckery assholes.

Posted
9 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

voters who don't watch don't know. either that or they just are fuckery assholes.

CFP committee isn't random voters. They definitely watched. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

CFP committee isn't random voters. They definitely watched. 

Oh for sure I thought we were talking poll fuckery.

i’d bet good money Texas is ahead of OU in the first CFP ranking 

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
18 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

not irrelevant, you provide one additional fact to help these folks calm down. it does not negate anything I said.  we were not going to magically leap frog OU after beating vandy at home for all the reasons. valid, stupid or immaterial notwithstanding.

I agree, my point is that we shouldn't have been behind OU even before the Vandy game.  Once that part of the cake was baked, though, there was little reason for pollsters to vote differently.

Posted

Interesting stuff and goes back to my point that one place of difference between teams at the 10 or below spot is mostly just noise. I don’t have the energy to count but Texas may lead OU on more ballots than not. A quick scan says that the Kentucky and LSU voters have Texas farthest behind OU. The A&M voter has Texas at 11 and ahead of OU. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.3fea205afbcda35d09b60abf3309c862.jpeg

Posted

Ahead of the first CFP, taking stock (forgetting the dumbassery of the AP)

OU:

Best wins:
#21 Michigan (home) - two scores
#23 Tennessee (road) - one score
Auburn (home) - one score

Losses:
#7 Ole Miss (home) - two scores
#13 Texas (neutral) - three scores

Texas:

Best wins:
#11 OU (neutral) - three scores
#15 Vandy (home) - one score
Miss St (road) - one score

Losses:
#1 Ohio St (road) - one score
Florida (road) - one score

Similar in many respects. But head to head should matter.

We rank 9 and OU 11 on SOR, FPI 8 vs 16. SOS 11 vs 12

But again, head to fucking head. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

I think we will be ahead of ou in tomorrow's polls. I am shocked we aren't in the AP and coaches. A little weird, but who cares. The first poll that matters is tomorrow. I'd put us at 11 or 12. Oklahoma at 13 or so. 

I'd be SHOCKED if Ohio State isn't No. 1, just because they are still undefeated and last year's champs. A&M might be no. 2. Wouldn't surprise me. They've been impressive. I love that we are right in this thing. Can't wait to see how the year ends. 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, Dignan said:

I think we will be ahead of ou in tomorrow's polls. I am shocked we aren't in the AP and coaches. A little weird, but who cares. The first poll that matters is tomorrow. I'd put us at 11 or 12. Oklahoma at 13 or so. 

I'd be SHOCKED if Ohio State isn't No. 1, just because they are still undefeated and last year's champs. A&M might be no. 2. Wouldn't surprise me. They've been impressive. I love that we are right in this thing. Can't wait to see how the year ends. 

 

If A&M is No. 1 tomorrow night, I think you can guarantee a loss to Mizzou. So I am rooting for them to be No. 1. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Ahead of the first CFP, taking stock (forgetting the dumbassery of the AP)

OU:

Best wins:
#21 Michigan (home) - two scores
#23 Tennessee (road) - one score
Auburn (home) - one score

Losses:
#7 Ole Miss (home) - two scores
#13 Texas (neutral) - three scores

Texas:

Best wins:
#11 OU (neutral) - three scores
#15 Vandy (home) - one score
Miss St (road) - one score

Losses:
#1 Ohio St (road) - one score
Florida (road) - one score

Similar in many respects. But head to head should matter.

We rank 9 and OU 11 on SOR, FPI 8 vs 16. SOS 11 vs 12

But again, head to fucking head. 

and head to head neutral site.

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