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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs


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Posted
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know that a loss to Georgia eliminates us, it really depends on what others do and if we beat A&M. Even then, we’re probably on the road somewhere for the 1st round instead of hosting. 

 

I’m just hoping for a scenario where somehow A&M drops down and has to travel to play at Tech for the playoffs. I’m not sure why I’m hoping that happens so badly, but A&M is pretty much guaranteed a bye so good for them.

ESPN has our odds of hosting a first round game as pretty minuscule. If we make it in at 9-3, we are traveling. 10-2 and miss the SEC CCG or 10-3 and lose the SEC CCG, much better chance at hosting

11-2 is hosting. Maybe even a bye. But I’m not THAT delusional 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know that a loss to Georgia eliminates us, it really depends on what others do and if we beat A&M. Even then, we’re probably on the road somewhere for the 1st round instead of hosting. 

 

I think we need a road win against a quality opponent to bolster our argument. A road win at UGA gives us credibility that a home win against aggy (and in a rivalry game no less) does not. 

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

Penciling in an L at Georgia is crazy talk at this point. There's nothing scary about Georgia for this Texas team. 

There's a strong chance to win out with the level of performance we saw Saturday.

I don't think anyone is "pencilling in an L at Georgia." It's do agree that we can win out but...refball.

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

11-2 is hosting. Maybe even a bye. But I’m not THAT delusional 

If we go 11-2 then we're the SEC champs and definitely have a bye and will be no lower than the #3 overall seed - most likely the #2 behind the Big Ten champ.

Edited by The Dog
Posted
20 minutes ago, Newy25 said:


This post needs instant hall of fame status. Using Georgia’s loss to a “really shitty Florida team” to prop our chances up is instant classic. 

I think his point was that they struggled, too.

Posted
1 hour ago, D3zii said:


Think Winnie The Pooh GIF

How some of yall look trying to make sense. 

 

 

I just hope we win out and don’t have to be on this damn thread crying to each other, “How, woulda, shoulda , coulda” 

But just my two cents,,  I don’t see a 9–3 Texas getting in, especially if ND sneaks in with two losses. Makes it tough for any three-loss team to have a shot.

don't get me started on fucking ND...they lost to to Miami who might be ranked, and their only good win is a USC team barely in the top 20.  Not sure what they've done to warrant being ahead of even OU or Texas.

46 minutes ago, immamac said:

Penciling in an L at Georgia is crazy talk at this point. There's nothing scary about Georgia for this Texas team. 

There's a strong chance to win out with the level of performance we saw Saturday.

Yep, and the Horns seem to rise up to the level of competition.  I'm actually more concerned with laying an egg at home vs Arkansas or Aggy(I mean it's aggy) than getting blown out this time against Georgia.

worst case this is close game in Athens, win or lose.

Posted

Here’s my dream of the last 5 game clock minutes of Texas v UGA. Hard fought for 55 minutes, several lead changes.  Horns leading 21-17.  The barking fan mass waiting and drooling  for their “inevitable” comeback victory. Only this time BOOM! the door slams shut and old UGA the myth cries and pisses the comeback away with picks, fumbles and false starts. Final score is Texas 34 - Georgia 17.  My guys choke to OU.  Texas and Ole Miss play for the SEC crown.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

Here’s my dream of the last 5 game clock minutes of Texas v UGA. Hard fought for 55 minutes, several lead changes.  Horns leading 21-17.  The barking fan mass waiting and drooling  for their “inevitable” comeback victory. Only this time BOOM! the door slams shut and old UGA the myth cries and pisses the comeback away with picks, fumbles and false starts. Final score is Texas 34 - Georgia 17.  My guys choke to OU.  Texas and Ole Miss play for the SEC crown.  

Ill Allow It GIF

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Posted
1 hour ago, Newy25 said:


This post needs instant hall of fame status. Using Georgia’s loss to a “really shitty Florida team” to prop our chances up is instant classic. 

For any other poster, yes. For Helobious, it was just a Sunday 

Posted

Preseason I had the Longhorns with a 21.61%* chance of finishing 10-2 overall. To hit 10-2 from this point forward, they must win out (3-0). Under the new, tougher assumptions (A&M stronger, Arkansas weaker), that win-out probability is down to 18.7 %, a drop of 2.91 percentage points (down roughly 13% from preseason, reflecting A&M’s being better than expected and Arkansas’s  significant downgrade).

         August 13, 2025                                                        Today
Outcome          Probability                                Outcome          Probability
12-0                        1.67%                                  *10-2                     18.70%
11-1                         9.48%                                  < 9 wins               81.30%
*10-2                     21.61%
< 9 wins               67.24%

Per Georgia, I originally had Texas' win probability in Athens at 40%, but if you want to be more optimistic every +5% bump in the Texas win probability at Georgia adds roughly 0.05 expected wins and +2% to Texas’s chance of finishing the season 3-0 (10-2). Moving Georgia from 40% to 55% boost Texas’s chance of running the table by 40% (18.7% to 26.3%), and more than reclaims what the Longhorns lost when I upgraded A&M's chances somewhat.

Odds.png.53dfd34daa2d9e9475e46eb40e81e0da.png

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Transitive property in CFB never ever ever works.

Nope.

Texas Tech 34, Utah 10 (at Utah)

Utah 42, Arizona State 10

Therefore ASU should be blown out by Texas Tech.

er...

ASU 26, Tech 22

Posted
1 hour ago, Newy25 said:


This post needs instant hall of fame status. Using Georgia’s loss to a “really shitty Florida team” to prop our chances up is instant classic. 

Don't you even transitive property, bro?

Posted
37 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Preseason I had the Longhorns with a 21.61%* chance of finishing 10-2 overall. To hit 10-2 from this point forward, they must win out (3-0). Under the new, tougher assumptions (A&M stronger, Arkansas weaker), that win-out probability is down to 18.7 %, a drop of 2.91 percentage points (down roughly 13% from preseason, reflecting A&M’s being better than expected and Arkansas’s  significant downgrade).

         August 13, 2025                                                        Today
Outcome          Probability                                Outcome          Probability
12-0                        1.67%                                  *10-2                     18.70%
11-1                         9.48%                                  < 9 wins               81.30%
*10-2                     21.61%
< 9 wins               67.24%

Per Georgia, I originally had Texas' win probability in Athens at 40%, but if you want to be more optimistic every +5% bump in the Texas win probability at Georgia adds roughly 0.05 expected wins and +2% to Texas’s chance of finishing the season 3-0 (10-2). Moving Georgia from 40% to 55% boost Texas’s chance of running the table by 40% (18.7% to 26.3%), and more than reclaims what the Longhorns lost when I upgraded A&M's chances somewhat.

Calculate Zach Galifianakis GIF

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bama Llama said:

Here’s my dream of the last 5 game clock minutes of Texas v UGA. Hard fought for 55 minutes, several lead changes.  Horns leading 21-17.  The barking fan mass waiting and drooling  for their “inevitable” comeback victory. Only this time BOOM! the door slams shut and old UGA the myth cries and pisses the comeback away with picks, fumbles and false starts. Final score is Texas 34 - Georgia 17.  My guys choke to OU.  Texas and Ole Miss play for the SEC crown.  

I'd rather play Bama, but okay

Edited by DFW Horn
Didn't want any idiots to think I meant we played Bama this year
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mwaadeeb said:

I think his point was that they struggled, too.

Thanks for not beaing an idiot. They barely beat a team we barely lost to. We’re walking in there evenly matched. 

Edited by Helobious
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Posted
58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Nope.

Texas Tech 34, Utah 10 (at Utah)

Utah 42, Arizona State 10

Therefore ASU should be blown out by Texas Tech.

er...

ASU 26, Tech 22

Didn't Tech lose their QB this game?

Posted
1 hour ago, Saint Tacky said:

Preseason I had the Longhorns with a 21.61%* chance of finishing 10-2 overall. To hit 10-2 from this point forward, they must win out (3-0). Under the new, tougher assumptions (A&M stronger, Arkansas weaker), that win-out probability is down to 18.7 %, a drop of 2.91 percentage points (down roughly 13% from preseason, reflecting A&M’s being better than expected and Arkansas’s  significant downgrade).

         August 13, 2025                                                        Today
Outcome          Probability                                Outcome          Probability
12-0                        1.67%                                  *10-2                     18.70%
11-1                         9.48%                                  < 9 wins               81.30%
*10-2                     21.61%
< 9 wins               67.24%

Per Georgia, I originally had Texas' win probability in Athens at 40%, but if you want to be more optimistic every +5% bump in the Texas win probability at Georgia adds roughly 0.05 expected wins and +2% to Texas’s chance of finishing the season 3-0 (10-2). Moving Georgia from 40% to 55% boost Texas’s chance of running the table by 40% (18.7% to 26.3%), and more than reclaims what the Longhorns lost when I upgraded A&M's chances somewhat.

Odds.png.53dfd34daa2d9e9475e46eb40e81e0da.png

Jim Carrey Chance GIF

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Posted
4 hours ago, Drew said:

don't get me started on fucking ND...they lost to to Miami who might be ranked, and their only good win is a USC team barely in the top 20.  Not sure what they've done to warrant being ahead of even OU or Texas.

 

Reporter - "How do you win a National Championship, Coach?"

DKR - "First, Notre Dame has to lose."

Seriously though...ND's close loss to top 3 aggy on 4th down, is considered a win to AP voters.  ND is actually 7-1.  These are not the droids you are looking for...

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Posted
On 11/1/2025 at 4:21 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m tired of reading all the herp derp dipshittery. It’s like 65% that a 9-3 texas would be in the playoffs. 

3 big 10 teams and that’s it. You will not be able to make an argument for a 4th one. 

10-2 Domers are in. 
Group of 5 team. 
SEC, ACC, Big 12 champs. 
 

thats 8 teams. There are 4 left to get in. 
Texas would have 3 wins against teams that are top 10 when they played them (and will all finish ranked). We’d have 3 losses. To the #1 squad at their place by a score, to the #4 team in the country at their house (guessing at Georgia) and to a very talented Florida team. 
do you mongloids really think, for example a 10-2 Miami team with losses to shitty ass Louisville and SMU are going over us?  And their 12 fans? 
 

root for Georgia tech to lose to Georgia and 1 other ACC game. Root for no big 12 teams to finish with 1 loss while not winning the auto bid. It’s certainly not a guarantee but son of a fucking hitch you simpletons it’s way more likely than not. 
all that said/ fuck it let’s go 10-2 and win me $1000 from doc and play for the sec title 
 

Ha, the only reason there’s a chance at 10-2 is I already counted that 1k as a win.  So…yes.  This could very well happen.  

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Posted
7 hours ago, Helobious said:

Thanks for not beaing an idiot. They barely beat a team we barely lost to. 

This is like saying Vandy barely lost to us. Do you watch the games? 

Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 7:59 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Ha, the only reason there’s a chance at 10-2 is I already counted that 1k as a win.  So…yes.  This could very well happen.  

So- I was right in the first half of what I said (we are going to be favored in every game but maybe Georgia) but yeah- rather you than me at 11-1 or 10-2

I said before the season the entire thing hinged on Florida. Only way to redeem that is to beat Georgia. I suspect it won’t happen. 

Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 10:51 AM, The Dog said:

The only scenario where I think we're guaranteed to get in with 3 losses is if we win out and lose the SEC CG (10-3 record). 

If we beat UGA and pig and lose a close one to aggy then it gets dicey.

Regardless, I think that we have to beat UGA in order to be considered in any scenario. A loss in Athens eliminates us IMHO.

We aren't losing to fucking aggy! Holy shit! They're fool's gold and have played literally a joke of a schedule. We will absolutely face-fuck them in DKR. 

On 11/3/2025 at 10:57 AM, immamac said:

Penciling in an L at Georgia is crazy talk at this point. There's nothing scary about Georgia for this Texas team. 

There's a strong chance to win out with the level of performance we saw Saturday.

Exactly this. Georgia has talent. Gravity still exists. Same as it ever were. People keep thinking this is 2021-22 Georgia and it's just not. They're just a talented team that can be beat. If we're still clicking, we're putting points on the board, and our D is getting better, and both Taaffe and Mcdonald will be back. 

The only issue is will Sark try to pound Wisner, or will he wisen up and use Baxter? We have to establish a run game. Stockton is average, and their WR's are hot or cold. Their RBs are really good, but we have the D-line to stop the run. We have the LBs and DEs to make his life an nightmare. If Wingo is back, we also still have Moseley, Moore, McCutcheon, Jagger, and TE'S Washington, Endries, and maybe Sark/Banks will finally utilize Townsend and Terry in some ways to throw off Georgia. 

Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 4:01 PM, dcar00 said:

Reporter - "How do you win a National Championship, Coach?"

DKR - "First, Notre Dame has to lose."

Seriously though...ND's close loss to top 3 aggy on 4th down, is considered a win to AP voters.  ND is actually 7-1.  These are not the droids you are looking for...

That’s an awesome DKR quote and is so true 

Posted
24 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Yeah, today's rankings confirmed 9-3 probably won't be good enough. Have to beat Georgia in Athens, and there's a vanishingly small chance that happens.

You have to be the absolute worst at parties.  Do you have any joy in life?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

That’s an awesome DKR quote and is so true 

Figuratively and literally. If ND doesn’t ever lose, they are almost always gonna be the national champ. Also true for every team, literally, in the CFP era. 

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Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 11:05 AM, mwaadeeb said:

Normally if we lost three I'd say fuck it we don't deserve it and can't win it all anyway. Not this time.

Why not?

Posted
47 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Yeah, today's rankings confirmed 9-3 probably won't be good enough. Have to beat Georgia in Athens, and there's a vanishingly small chance that happens.

Nah fuck that. UGA has been flirting with disaster for weeks. They are ripe for a loss and they in all honesty are not that great. Basically the same team that we played in the second half last year at the SEC championship. They are beatable. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You have to be the absolute worst at parties.  Do you have any joy in life?

People on Surly get invited to parties?

Imamac throws his own parties. 

A guy on the Music forum built his own stage to hold concerts. 
 

I see where y’all throw tailgates in other cities.

This is like the Island of Misfit Toys that don’t get invited to parties so they throw their own, right?

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Posted
5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Nah fuck that. UGA has been flirting with disaster for weeks. They are ripe for a loss and they in all honesty are not that great. Basically the same team that we played in the second half last year at the SEC championship. They are beatable. 

I think the concern is sark pulling a sark. If he runs basically his version of a  spread style offense we might have a good shot - I mean we still have to execute and make people miss in one on ones - but we do that odds of beating UGA goes up tremendously. Pull that slow developing shit and  UGA may knock arch out of the game. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

I think the concern is sark pulling a sark. If he runs basically his version of a  spread style offense we might have a good shot - I mean we still have to execute and make people miss in one on ones - but we do that odds of beating UGA goes up tremendously. Pull that slow developing shit and  UGA may knock arch out of the game. 

Why are you suddenly discussing game play?

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Why are you suddenly discussing game play?

Because several people talked the Georgia game and so I responded ? 

are you the official thread police?
 

Emergency Lights GIF by AgriEyes

Posted
1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Yeah, today's rankings confirmed 9-3 probably won't be good enough. Have to beat Georgia in Athens, and there's a vanishingly small chance that happens.

Why is it vanishing? What’s happening?

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Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

Why not?

Because (if we play Georgia tough and beat Arky / A&M) we're not just a weird, inconsistent team with talent, but a team with a clear trajectory, whose QB could be entering a period of greatness and and whose shitty O-line might be coming its own (I hope), giving us a cool narrative and real shot.

Posted
1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Nah fuck that. UGA has been flirting with disaster for weeks. They are ripe for a loss and they in all honesty are not that great. Basically the same team that we played in the second half last year at the SEC championship. They are beatable. 

I’m more worried about miss st getting them first. 
 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

I’m more worried about miss st getting them first. 
 

Actually I had this same thought. Miss St is not horrible and can win at home but I think the refs will make sure that Texas vs UGA is the college gameday game the next week, they already scheduled it for night primetime. 

Posted (edited)

Poll dropping hasn't changed my thoughts.  I doesn't matter one way or the other, but I thought they'd have Utah above us as well.

Playoff odds improved from +180 to +160 after the rankings were released.  Vegas thinks BYU is out and we are in.

Edited by JBJ
Posted
6 hours ago, mwaadeeb said:

Because (if we play Georgia tough and beat Arky / A&M) we're not just a weird, inconsistent team with talent, but a team with a clear trajectory, whose QB could be entering a period of greatness and and whose shitty O-line might be coming its own (I hope), giving us a cool narrative and real shot.

I might feel that way if we win out.  Another loss to Georgia would show we're just not good enough.

Posted
5 hours ago, WBT said:

I might feel that way if we win out.  Another loss to Georgia would show we're just not good enough.

If we win out, definitely. I hear you about Georgia. Why should we get in the playoffs when we'd normally be in the Holiday Bowl or wherever? But if we battle and come up just short and then wreck Arky and Aggy (still undefeated), who else on the bubble will have our chops? We'll see.

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