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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

article is paywalled but the map is informative. Didn't know Tokmak is a logistics hub. 

also this doesn't include some of the localized breakthroughs the probing attacks have achieved.

Rail and road hub. Plus has feeder roads going into the front and a road back to ports. Take it and Russia in that area would be in trouble. 

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4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How long is a tank with this damage out of the fight?  It is it stationary artillery for a while as long as range permits?

see dog's post above -- it's already back in service

suck it vatniks

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7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Not being much of a military strategist myself, it seems reasonable when trying to break through a long defensive line that a workable strategy is to stage a whole lot of ugly at a couple of positions behind the line, attack the line at multiple points with modest forces, and in the places that the modest forces are sufficient to gain ground, open the bullpen and point the big ugly at them and ring the dinner bell. 

unlike this guy

😉

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This is basically the United States telling the world the Russians blew up the dam without using those words:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/world/europe/ukraine-dam-collapse-explosion.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

 

Quote

WASHINGTON — A senior Biden administration official says that U.S. spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed, but American analysts still do not know who caused the dam’s destruction or how exactly it happened.

The official said that satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a major explosion just before the dam collapsed, unleashing huge floodwaters downstream.

American intelligence analysts suspect that Russia was behind the dam’s destruction, the senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. But he added that U.S. spy agencies still did not have any solid evidence about who was responsible.

Engineering and munitions experts have said a deliberate explosion inside the Kakhovka dam, which is controlled by Russia, most likely caused its collapse on Tuesday. They added that structural failure or an attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations.


 

Quote

The administration official did not rule out the possibility that prior damage to the dam or mounting water pressure might have contributed to the collapse, but American officials believe the explosion, whether deliberate or accidental, was the most likely trigger.

Experts had cautioned earlier this week that the available evidence was very limited, but they said that a blast in an enclosed space, with all of its energy applied against the structure around it, would do the most damage. Even then, they said, it would require hundreds of pounds of explosives, at least, to breach the dam.

An external detonation by a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam, and would require an explosive many times larger to achieve a similar effect.

 

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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Well it took over 4 years to get serious in Bosnia. And the Serbs did not have nukes. 

I'd argue how serious we ever got. We got serious enough, and that's all that matters, but there was some tiptoeing through the tulips even at the end of it. 

On some level there were some thoughts that was a European issue, and they should take the lead, but has been noted by multiple analysts over the decades, Europe really relies on US leadership to get anything done. 

Honestly I'm shocked it hasn't erupted into something since then. The Serbs even seem to be leaning to the West lately. Never thought I'd see that. Don't know what to make of it, or where it all ends up, but I'm glad to see it in any case. 

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3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

That's not how an independent media operates, and you can't expect them to do differently. Now saying that, anyone that isn't a tool of the Russian propaganda machine either directly or indirectly that has a couple of synapses firing in their heads should be able to come to the conclusion Russia did it. I did that night. You could look at the devastation and know that came from a demolition from the structure itself. 

Since then there's been all kinds of confirmation. There's a seismic tracker that recorded an explosion in the area at 2am. There are eyewitnesses who saw no evidence of shelling or missile fire. There were Russian forces confiscating any type of flotation device on the left bank in the occupied areas in the weeks leading up to the demolition. There were Russian military stationed outside occupied villages who fired on the population when they tried to evacuate. There was Russian shelling of evacuation centers. There were numerous other smaller dams detonated across occupied areas. There's the fact that Russians are historical cock suckers who place no value on human life, either their own, and certainly not on anyone else's. 

But that doesn't change there's going to have to be a smoking gun for mainstream media sources to say Russia did it.

I went through a lot of this back in 2014. I knew it was Russian special forces that orchestrated the beginnings of the separatist movement. You could see them on video being recorded live by individuals peaking through their window with cell phones. I knew that the Russian army crossed the border, encircling and annihilating Ukrainian forces who were wiping the floor with the separatists. There were eyewitness reports from people in the Ukrainian paramilitary groups who saw it. But the media had to go along with the charade it was separatists in the Donbas region who spontaneously organized themselves as a protest against a Russian friendly president being kicked out with a Nazi friendly far right group taking power through a coup. All of it was absurd.

So sure, I hope no one tries to play that game on here. I haven't seen any sign of it. But to expect news organizations who ostensibly should be neutral parties rather than rooting sections flatly state it was Russia who did it without being able to cite a source beggars belief. 

Our media has issues.  Not being investigative, not being decisive is one of them.  But wrestling the pig is what the pig wants and damaged their reputation.   It was a problem with the "her emails" and the Uranium One fake scandal and the fake Benghazi bullshit as they attempted to bothsides the pussy grabbing and streaming pile of lies put forth by Trump they couldn't keep up with.   The media giving it attention allowed doubt to foster.  The newspapers/NEWS were covered in mud and the pig was happy.  

I was given some family wisdom once "never argue with fools, drunks, or children."   

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50 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I'd argue how serious we ever got. We got serious enough, and that's all that matters, but there was some tiptoeing through the tulips even at the end of it. 

On some level there were some thoughts that was a European issue, and they should take the lead, but has been noted by multiple analysts over the decades, Europe really relies on US leadership to get anything done. 

Honestly I'm shocked it hasn't erupted into something since then. The Serbs even seem to be leaning to the West lately. Never thought I'd see that. Don't know what to make of it, or where it all ends up, but I'm glad to see it in any case. 

Correct, and Clinton decided with Albright it was a European War. We (the US) stayed out of it with the exception of providing a few air hits on Serb artillery, humanitarian assistance, and using MPRI to train the Croatians. NATO followed our lead, and instead of going in as NATO they provided troops to the UN Peacekeeping mission, a force with no bite. Forget Srebrenica, remember other places as well. Srebrenica and Sarajevo got most of the press. But when the Serbs tightened the noose around Bihac the French pulled out leaving the Bangladeshi's as the sole protective force. They had no winter gear or experience. Oh, and a Kenyan was in charge of genocide tracking. 

The first US led operation was IFOR (Implementation Force) SFOR (Stabilization Force) which came into effect after Dayton. Even the Russians participated. The Ukraine sent a police training contingent. Country was divided into sectors and there was still some shit going on, but the Serbs were scared of US Airpower and our rapid movement. So they started up shit in Kosovo following Russian Doctrine. There was nothing NATO could do directly unless we wanted the Russians to close down a large road sector in Bosnia. 

There are two types of Serbs. Serbians and Chetniks. NATO just placed a new 650 person unit in Kosovo due to hostilities. In the Balkans, wars are fought ever other or third generation. It will happen again. The Serbian main political parties are split. If shit gets back economically the Serbs will lash out. They are actively trying to still split Bosnia. Good buddy from Sarajevo who I had more than 1 beer with served all 4 years in their police intel unit. He now works for a security consultancy. We talk about once a month. He thinks there is war within 10 years. 

Fun times. I would go back to Sarajevo in a heartbeat and live there once again. 

The BBC's War in Yugoslavia series is a good one. Worth the time on a shitty sports weekend. 

Edited by InkaUtexas
It was IFOR. (Implementation Force that was first. SFOR came in 97. Corrected in Bold. Had to go look at an old NATO Route map to see I fucked up! Old age.. Pot... Damn...
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3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Allegedly there are 6 defensive lines. It’s categorized as the most heavily fortified area in the southern region. So much so there are a ton of cheerleader analysts for Ukraine who think an offensive in that direction is just flat out dumb. 

I don’t agree. I don’t see how someone can know unless they’ve walked those fortifications, they know the quality and number of the personnel deployed there, and what the artillery, ammo, air support, and heavy armor availability is. 

And you discover that by making probing attacks to see how the enemy responds. 

I sure would be excited by a pending encirclement of Tokmak, I know that. But we’ll see. Don’t want to get my hopes up just yet. I want to mentally let Ukraine do their thang, whatever that may be. 

But refresh gets a bit worn out at times. Not going to lie. 

Amen brother. I know I'm smoking a big fat bowl of hopium waiting for some bg updates. But I understand my biases and try to be patient with getting reports from credible sources before getting too high or low. At least my work has been crazy this week so I haven't been refreshing tabs quite as much. Hopefully Ukrainian biolabs are working OT to create more killer sharks. Sharks with frickin lasers!!

Austin Powers Shark GIF by reactionseditor

 

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27 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

NATO/US doctrine is built upon air superiority. NATO would not be running this offensive without first waging a long (and expensive in terms of destroyed aircraft) campaign to wreck enemy radar installations and ground to air missile launchers. Then they'd bomb the bejeezus out of the enemy positions to soften it up. Then they'd have close combat support from an array of planes and helicopters. They'd launch offensives in unpredictable places with special forces to flank the enemy. Especially to take vital assets like bridges and regional air strips. They'd probably have an amphibious landing. 

Think about how different the images would be if wings of F-22s, F-35s, Apaches, Blackhawks etc. were littering the sky.

Instead Ukraine has to rely on untrained and older troops recently mobilized who have never been anywhere near these types of vehicles, depending on artillery and drones to provide a tiny fraction of what air power would for NATO forces, and then only do it with 12 brigades. And while NATO/US have the ability to build more top of the line vehicles as replacements, Ukraine has to rely on continued generosity and political will for the 40 year old scrap heap extras laying around. 

What Ukraine and its soldiers and citizenry are trying to accomplish is very brave. They're going straight into the lion's den. Being shocked at pictures of destroyed NATO armor is asinine. 

And we'd do it all at night when we can see better than they can in the daytime.

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Honestly I'm shocked it hasn't erupted into something since then. The Serbs even seem to be leaning to the West lately. Never thought I'd see that. Don't know what to make of it, or where it all ends up, but I'm glad to see it in any case. 

Russia has rapidly lost their power/influence over the rest of Europe and maybe the Serbs have decided they want to be on the winning side. Getting rid of Russian control over energy supplies can’t be mentioned enough.  

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia has rapidly lost their power/influence over the rest of Europe and maybe the Serbs have decided they want to be on the winning side. Getting rid of Russian control over energy supplies can’t be mentioned enough.  

In the cities they want to be Western and join the EU. Not NATO though. In the countryside they still bitch about the Battle of Kosovo Polje and the Ottoman Empire, their pride in being Slavic. 

And there are close ties with Russia and Serbian Government officials. 

The Balkans are very complicated. More than cut and dry borders. 

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I’m a one issue guy right now. I realize not everyone is. If someone supports Ukraine but is otherwise reprehensible, I’m all “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

Not saying that’s the case with McCaul. It’s just a general observation. 

The one thing i’ll say I get irritated about regarding McCaul and people like Graham, is that there’s some famous Congressional unfunded mandating going on here. I’d like it a lot more if instead of making noises about ATACMS and F-16s - which is well and good - how about funding them?

it’s going to be very challenging getting a supplemental spending bill regarding defense and Ukraine spending in the HOR passed. The Senate is ready to do it on a bipartisan basis. McCarthy and company need to get their shit together. I mean, in a lot of ways, but again, I’m a one issue guy. I mean, let’s not default on the debt while we’re at it, too, but outside of funding continuing obligations, nothing is as important to me as giving Ukrainians a legitimate opportunity to break away militarily from centuries of Russian fuckface domination, to escape this genocide, and return to 2014 borders. 

Sure, could more be done?  Could those individuals walk further out on a ledge?  Absolutely.  But just being a realist, they're doing a lot, and pushing a ton of support forward.  I think if they get too far out, then they'll lose all support but deeper discussion on this requires us to move to the CR and I don't participate in that cesspool (hey Kirk!)

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