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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s nothing inherently wrong with pondering the likelihood of a war that eventually exhausts itself kinetically and that leaves huge unresolved questions.  Putin has shown a penchant for freezing conflicts and Ukraine and a Russia are not going to have endless will or ability to engage in heavy combat. This is why upcoming months are so important to set the stage. 

I don't think Putin gets to decide to freeze this conflict this time around - this is not Georgia of 2008, this is not Ukraine of 2014, or Moldova.  Putin has made it clear that he wasn't going to stop with Ukraine, and the West/EU now fully understand this, especially with Russia's fuckery with boasting of making Europe freeze and cutting them off.

Putin, master strategist that he is, has ensured that the EU will not be going back to Russian resources any time soon.

Just as importantly, and this is cynical as hell because it's a financial calculation, but I don't think the West will allow him to freeze it as it stands right now, because it means Russia would continue fucking with the grain/shipping situation which affects food prices and the stability of certain regions, and it means Russia could keep Ukraine's offshore resources out of play. Ukraine, with the help of Western oil companies, was starting to bring a bunch of o&g resources online (or was close to it). Too many companies will be quietly lobbying their governments to help Ukraine out, because they want access to those offshore resources, and then toss in the food situation.

Until the Russian fleet is neutralized in some way, Russia is not going to let Ukraine bring those resources online, and you can bet that if Putin tried to freeze the conflict, he makes it known that Ukraine will not be allowed to bring those resources online, or ship grain however and whenever they feel like it.

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s the framing of it as a stalemate or some kind of partial win for Putin/defeat for Allies that is obtuse. The facts are that Russia achieved almost none of their stated aims, they have wrecked their military for easily a decade to come, they have been isolated from prior preferred economic and trade partners, and they have become more dependent on a smaller set of “Allies.”  They’ve paid a tremendously heavy price for basically Mariupol and some coastal real estate and likely would not have launched the war in hindsight. 

Bingo.  All of the idiots drinking from the Russian propaganda hose don't seem to understand this blindingly obvious fact - it's been a complete failure when you look at what he originally stated he was doing.  They can't even put fucking airbags in their shitty cars because they can't get the microchips/sensors. They are pulling 60 year-old tanks out of storage.

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So yes, it’s hard to see a clear “winner” emerging. The goal is to get Ukraine into the most favorable position possible and to dictate as much as they can the terms of any peace— once they decide that they’re ready for it and that there’s nothing more to be gained by fighting it out. On our side, this is not a real burden and we are capable of doing even much more without really breaking a sweat which is why it’s so disingenuous to play political games around it. 

I agree with pretty much everything you've said, but I do think the genie is out of the bottle for Putin, and between his fucking with energy and grain supplies, and his talking heads constantly going on state TV and talking about attacking the rest of Europe, even if the US were able to be bought off by Putin and stop helping, I think too many European and other nations are going to help as long as possible.

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Americans often suffer from a failure of imagination when it comes to “how much worse can it be?”

I don't think it's an American problem, while it does apply to us.  The truth is, it's incredibly difficult for humans to see beyond their own horizon.  We live in an age where ordinary people have access to more information than ever before (for better or worse - and there is a shit load of worse), but even despite that most people really only care about what affects themselves in the present.  While some of us see this as the threat it truly is, most people are generally speaking indifferent; and we are all very much in the minority; and that applies not just domestically, but globally.  

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11 hours ago, PTINS said:

image.thumb.jpeg.cd38a9ff16882447ba41312eb638d8cf.jpeg

This is from ~ 1960, Clark AFB in the Philippines. Me in the red hat.

That Hawk looks good to go; good thing they made 'em before they started using expiration dates. 🙂

I saw this set up over Spring Break...at this museum: https://en.natmus.dk/museums-and-palaces/danish-war-museum/

Maybe they ought to pull it out and send it to Ukraine.

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33 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

(Imma talk about politics, but don't freak out in a CR way.)

I think Putin is subject to some bad luck politically.  The visible cozying up with Russia from the prior administration primed those that hate the prior administration to pay attention to this more this time.  There is a lot of subtext going on at Congress on this issue to this day.  In 2014 the average American, and the above average American, couldn't tell you about Russia going into Crimea, and if they could, they couldn't form a coherent opinion about it.  The present administration did a very good job (frankly, the most standout thing the present admin has done) in doing a play-by-play of what Putin was about to do, what he was doing, all the way up to rolling tanks about the border, in such a way that fault for this war is very clear in everyone's minds.  It was done in a way that leveraged the distaste of the prior administration into actual support of Ukraine that lasts to this day.

Good point. Everything that went on wrt the previous administration certainly helped make it easier to get support from dems on an issue they would've ordinarily been more likely to oppose.

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36 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

This feels like either somebody is going to be buying some F-35s and sending their F-16s to Ukraine, or the US is prepping some F-16s that were in storage. Feels like we are going down the path we did with the Abrams, where we were hesitant and "oh it'll take too long to get them trained/whatever" and then things start happening, and we announce it, with other countries in the meantime sending their own tanks.

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53 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

(Imma talk about politics, but don't freak out in a CR way.)

I think Putin is subject to some bad luck politically.  The visible cozying up with Russia from the prior administration primed those that hate the prior administration to pay attention to this more this time.  There is a lot of subtext going on at Congress on this issue to this day.  In 2014 the average American, and the above average American, couldn't tell you about Russia going into Crimea, and if they could, they couldn't form a coherent opinion about it.  The present administration did a very good job (frankly, the most standout thing the present admin has done) in doing a play-by-play of what Putin was about to do, what he was doing, all the way up to rolling tanks about the border, in such a way that fault for this war is very clear in everyone's minds.  It was done in a way that leveraged the distaste of the prior administration into actual support of Ukraine that lasts to this day.

There was also a material change in the platform in 2016 of the previous president to no longer be pro-Ukraine, and to oppose military aid. There was an attempt by the previous president to blackmail Zelensky to lie to advance a narrative that has widely been agreed by the intelligence community originate from russisan disinformation

This is the same intelligence community that has been extremely effectively undercutting Putin by releading a play-by-play just before they did it, so I'm inclined to say that two plus two equals four here.

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Just as importantly, and this is cynical as hell because it's a financial calculation, but I don't think the West will allow him to freeze it as it stands right now, because it means Russia would continue fucking with the grain/shipping situation which affects food prices and the stability of certain regions, and it means Russia could keep Ukraine's offshore resources out of play. Ukraine, with the help of Western oil companies, was starting to bring a bunch of o&g resources online (or was close to it). Too many companies will be quietly lobbying their governments to help Ukraine out, because they want access to those offshore resources, and then toss in the food situation.

 

This is where I am with the US Congress. We hear rumblings about Congress cutting off or reducing funding for Ukraine. But, virtually all the Dems are on board. I think alot of Republicans are as well. But the ones that are on the fence are about to get alot of donation for the Energy or Defense lobbies. It sounds cynical as hell. But I can't imagine any Republican's from Texas voting against a O&G lobby or against Lockheed 

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This feels like either somebody is going to be buying some F-35s and sending their F-16s to Ukraine, or the US is prepping some F-16s that were in storage. Feels like we are going down the path we did with the Abrams, where we were hesitant and "oh it'll take too long to get them trained/whatever" and then things start happening, and we announce it, with other countries in the meantime sending their own tanks.

As much as this shouldn't be about business, we've made good business moves on this.

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7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

As much as this shouldn't be about business, we've made good business moves on this.

As darkly cynical as one can be -- and honestly, I have quite mixed emotions on this because there's a lot not to like about arms flying around* -- what this has done for the western defense industry will prove to be incredible.  If you are a third party shopping for stuff that is used to blow up/break things, you have two main supplier groups: Russia-aligned groups (Russia, China, DPRK even), and western-aligned groups (the US, France, UK, Sweden, and some smaller players).  

A large-scale product demo has taken place over the past year.  If you had sales reps sitting on the sidelines with order forms ready to fill out right now, who do you think is going to easily blow past their quota, and who do you think doesn't even get the free set of steak knives?

Of course, we've also re-solidified ties with some of our best allies and trading partners, and that's always good for business as well.

* Another sad by-product of this war is that it stands as evidence of the  "peace through strength" argument/strategy.  A nation state would be a fool NOT to arm up to head off threats like they're seeing play out in real-time in Ukraine.  Lots of people are going to want to buy AA systems, HIMARS, and the like, because they are a strategic win.  And on ANOTHER layer, it's even worse, in that Russia's repeated threats of nuclear strike/nuclear blackmail are a real strong incentive to get you your own nuclear weapons.  The goal of nuclear non-proliferation has taken a beating based on the last year.

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4 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

This is where I am with the US Congress. We hear rumblings about Congress cutting off or reducing funding for Ukraine. But, virtually all the Dems are on board. I think alot of Republicans are as well. But the ones that are on the fence are about to get alot of donation for the Energy or Defense lobbies. It sounds cynical as hell. But I can't imagine any Republican's from Texas voting against a O&G lobby or against Lockheed 

Yeah, and those resources would be sold, with the help of more than a few American companies, to the rest of the EU, which helps keep them off of Russia's energy supplies, and could even be cheaper (it's closer). Hell, just stabilizing the Black Sea area is a huge deal - Kazakhstan's top investor is Chevron for instance.

In the list of Putin's fuckups, and there's so many it's hard to pick on, but he and his talking heads on Russian state TV making it clear that they are going to continue to fuck with everybody, and Russia trying to shutdown Ukrainian grain exports, and prevent those o&g resources from being used, has to be up there.  He's created a problem that the rest of Europe/US have to deal with, and they have to solve it.  Like I said, he went from being the annoying barking dog in the neighbor's backyard that everybody tried to ignore to the rabid dog running loose.

If Putin tried to "freeze" this conflict right now, I don't see him allowing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, and I don't see see him allowing Ukraine to work on their offshore stuff (especially since he claims a big chunk of it). If you're the EU, or the US or whoever, that is worried about say food or energy prices, there's no point in allowing him to freeze it, because it will cost you a lot in the long run to deal with it, probably more than it will cost to just keep sending weapons/ammo to Ukraine.

I wonder if he even realizes that he's made it more cost-efficient for us to send weapons, ammo, and other aid in order to help Ukraine, than to allow him to have his way.

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27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This feels like either somebody is going to be buying some F-35s and sending their F-16s to Ukraine, or the US is prepping some F-16s that were in storage. Feels like we are going down the path we did with the Abrams, where we were hesitant and "oh it'll take too long to get them trained/whatever" and then things start happening, and we announce it, with other countries in the meantime sending their own tanks.

I think we are trying to avoid adding F-16s to our tab given that it isn't when/if more money will get authorized by the House. However, we can play some games with aid to our allies (e.g., discounts on new systems like F-35s) that still results in F-16s arriving Ukraine.  

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14 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

As much as this shouldn't be about business, we've made good business moves on this.

It shouldn't be, but honestly if you step back, ultimately it's a human problem if we don't get the business side of things ramped up (supply/arming the folks/countries that need it). Like I said, we need to try and keep the Black Sea open and we need to get Ukraine back in control of its offshore assets, because if we don't it absolutely becomes  a human problem.  There's already been some agricultural problems with drought, war. etc. as it is in the US, Ukraine, Russia, etc., and you toss this into the mix for another year or two, you'll have immigrants from Africa/Middle East trying to make their way elsewhere (Europe), or immigrants from Central/South America heading to our border.

It's cynical as hell, we either solve the business problem of supplying Ukraine, or we have to solve the human problem when they show up at our border. Last year, food prices hit an all-time high thanks to drought and the war in Ukraine.

The really cynical thing is that relatively speaking, we are spending very little - there's no American troops shedding blood, and our cities aren't being attacked by Russian missiles.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It shouldn't be, but honestly if you step back, ultimately it's a human problem if we don't get the business side of things ramped up (supply/arming the folks/countries that need it). Like I said, we need to try and keep the Black Sea open and we need to get Ukraine back in control of its offshore assets, because if we don't it absolutely becomes  a human problem.  There's already been some agricultural problems with drought, war. etc. as it is in the US, Ukraine, Russia, etc., and you toss this into the mix for another year or two, you'll have immigrants from Africa/Middle East trying to make their way elsewhere (Europe), or immigrants from Central/South America heading to our border.

It's cynical as hell, we either solve the business problem of supplying Ukraine, or we have to solve the human problem when they show up at our border. Last year, food prices hit an all-time high thanks to drought and the war in Ukraine.

The really cynical thing is that relatively speaking, we are spending very little - there's no American troops shedding blood, and our cities aren't being attacked by Russian missiles.

All true, good post.

While I know that significant effort has been made, why we don't have a full-on, wartime strategic partnership in helping EU countries develop LNG terminals and abilities, and ramping up LNG terminals here (esp. Texas) is something I don't understand.  We can solve multiple economic and human problems in the near and medium term just by ramping the hell out of LNG, as just one example.

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3 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

The crazy thing to me is, if Putin had done nothing, the west likely would not have truly galvanized support for Ukraine ‘starting’ a conflict to take back Crimea and/or the Donbas.  Instead, here we are.  Mind bottling stupid decision.  

Yep. When I was in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'd see people "push their luck" volunteering for extra missions or deployments which went bad for them, and I formed some opinions about "luck reserves" and running out. I no longer have those theories, but this reminds me of that time. Putin got greedy. Had he not wanted it all, he might've been able to use his soft power and energy dependence of the West to get much of what he wanted. Instead, he pushed for taking it all, and will now most likely lose everything. 

Edited by MillerEP
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How does this war ever end?  Putin will never stop so he probably has to die or get overthrown I would think.  I don’t see any other logical end to the war so hopefully he does have cancer.  Do other countries have the stomach to keep spending trillions a year in Ukraine until that happens?  I mean we are just playing with Monopoly money at this point and have been for years and it amazes me the dollar keeps the value it does when we have more debt than all other countries combined almost but that’s a whole different topic.  It’s definitely a worry that funding gets cut if another administration gets in office.  

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24 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Yep. When I was in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'd see people "push their luck" volunteering for extra missions or deployments which went bad for them, and I formed some opinions about "luck reserves" and running out. I no longer have those theories, but this reminds me of that time. Putin got greedy. Had he not wanted it all, he might've been able to use his soft power and energy dependence of the West to get much of what he wanted. Instead, he pushed for taking it all, and will now most likely lose everything. 

Here's the short form on that:

Quote

Idiom: Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered

Meaning:

This idiom is used to express being satisfied with enough, that being greedy or too ambitious will be your ruin.

 

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The MIC is supporting this effort, as they are supposed to, in support of their customers. They are not driving this effort. As a longtime defense employee, I can assure you- nothing would be better for defense than for Ukraine to lose. 
 
It’s really hard to get funding for cool new stuff when the old stuff shows to be more capable than what the Russians have. 
 
I worked for LTV when it had a huge contract for B-2 Aerostructures. Building 120 B-2s was going to be worth billions! Then the Berlin Wall fell, and Bush truncated the B-2 at 21 airplanes, and cut the A-12 program cold. 

Edited by statsman
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10 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

How does this war ever end?  Putin will never stop so he probably has to die or get overthrown I would think.  I don’t see any other logical end to the war so hopefully he does have cancer.  Do other countries have the stomach to keep spending trillions a year in Ukraine until that happens?  I mean we are just playing with Monopoly money at this point and have been for years and it amazes me the dollar keeps the value it does when we have more debt than all other countries combined almost but that’s a whole different topic.  It’s definitely a worry that funding gets cut if another administration gets in office.  

0_Saddam-Hiding-Place.jpg

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3 minutes ago, statsman said:

The MIC is supporting this effort, as they are supposed to, in support of their customers. They are not driving this effort. As a longtime defense employee, I can assure you- nothing would be better for defense than for Ukraine to lose. 
 
It’s really hard to get funding for cool new stuff when the old stuff shows to be more capable than what the Russians have. 
 
I worked for LTV when it had a huge contract for B-2 Aerostructures. Building 120 B-2s was going to be worth billions! Then the Berlin Wall fell, and Bush truncated the B-2 at 21 airplanes, and cut the A-12 program cold. 

Appreciate the insight, and not arguing with you, but wouldn't that analogy apply more to big-picture strategic weapons (nukes and their delivery platforms) than good old-fashioned "blow up the enemy's shit" platforms?

Because even if Russia "loses," if it remains the same old shitty Russia, it has proven that it WILL try shit like this again.  AND, other nations may be looking at their neighbors thinking that THEY'LL pull a Russia, too.  Which makes battlefield weapons like HIMARS, and air defense like Patriots, the things you definitely want to have (oh, and western tanks and APCs, and ATGMs as well).  I'm thinking of India/Pakistan, and Taiwan, and South Korea, and even NATO states like Poland, Germany, Finland -- aren't they looking to ramp up their supply of all of those things, to let their potential adversary know that if they try to pull a Russia, they're going to get their shit pushed in?

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19 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Do other countries have the stomach to keep spending trillions a year in Ukraine until that happens?

Nobody is spending trillions, and Putin has made it clear that if he gets Ukraine, he’s not stopping, so yeah, other countries are putting a lot of effort into supplying Ukraine so Putin doesn’t try to recreate the USSR and the Warsaw Pact by force. He couldn’t d pull it off  anyways, but given how last year played out, countries have to assume he might try.  

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nobody is spending trillions, and Putin has made it clear that if he gets Ukraine, he’s not stopping, so yeah, other countries are putting a lot of effort into supplying Ukraine so Putin doesn’t try to recreate the USSR and the Warsaw Pact by force. He couldn’t d pull it off  anyways, but given how last year played out, countries have to assume he might try.  

Yea that was supposed to be billions, my bad. So Putin basically has to die for the war to end, his mystery illness seems like the cleanest way to progress towards ending it. 

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin has made it clear that he wasn't going to stop with Ukraine, and the West/EU now fully understand this, especially with Russia's fuckery with boasting of making Europe freeze and cutting them off.

I wouldn't yet be so optimistic. The information warfare side of this conflict is ongoing; we still have a substantial percentage of the West wholly misinformed on this topic and a great many others.

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6 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Yea that was supposed to be billions, my bad. So Putin basically has to die for the war to end, his mystery illness seems like the cleanest way to progress towards ending it. 

There is only some reason to believe that if Putin dies this ends.  The truth is, it might get worse.  

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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Oh my goodness... the jokes just write themselves.

That someone sent this to her, correctly guessing that she desperately needs to get laid.

That she didn't recognize what it was, proving that she desperately needs to get laid...

Edited by Rimbo
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