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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

That's a thought as well, or you just fake it.  Either way could cause mass panic and chaos.  

A year ago, Russian comms failed. This time, my hope is that Ukraine does fake Comms on the Russian system- misinformation, redirection, conflicting with true reports. Basically, make every Russian unit feel like it’s a chicken with its head cut off. 

Edited by statsman
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We had discussion a while back about Russia’s missile production. I recently read an article about them hitting Ukrainian cities with S-300s. That confused me, as I thought the S-300 was a SAM. I checked, and, … it is. 
 
Russia using AD missiles as offensive weapons doesn’t seem like a sign of robust missile production. The contrary, actually. 

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11 minutes ago, statsman said:

We had discussion a while back about Russia’s missile production. I recently read an article about them hitting Ukrainian cities with S-300s. That confused me, as I thought the S-300 was a SAM. I checked, and, … it is. 
 
Russia using AD missiles as offensive weapons doesn’t seem like a sign of robust missile production. The contrary, actually. 

During WW II, the German 88 mm gun was originally an anti aircraft weapon.  It was then found to be a fantastic indirect fire artillery piece and the best anti tank gun of the war.  But you are correct, here.  Russia may find that they need air defense more than they need destroyed apartments in Kiev or Kharkiv.

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13 minutes ago, statsman said:

We had discussion a while back about Russia’s missile production. I recently read an article about them hitting Ukrainian cities with S-300s. That confused me, as I thought the S-300 was a SAM. I checked, and, … it is. 
 
Russia using AD missiles as offensive weapons doesn’t seem like a sign of robust missile production. The contrary, actually. 

They're also difficult for air defenses to intercept. The issue is they're not very accurate on ground based targets. But if the intent is to sow general fear and unrest, and you don't care all that much about what target is actually hit, they're an expensive partial solution to the problem of Ukraine air defenses. It's a horrible use of them, though. As you're alluding, it's certainly a sign of weakness in capabilities. 

But yes, there's also issues with any kind of ammo production keeping up with consumption on both sides. Plenty of posts on this thread citing Russian serial numbers of missiles used indicating they're fresh off the production lines. Basically as soon as they're produced they're rushed off to the battlefield and used pretty much immediately.

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12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I think you misread the post. Wagner captured their Lt. Colonel, not the other way around. 

This was the Russian Lt. Colonel that Wagner captured and tortured, that I mentioned yesterday: (the assumption is that the Liberty of Russia Legion or whatever is now trying to act as a go-between between Wagner and the Russian Army or they want the Lt. Colonel for their own bargaining). I thought Wagner got another one from a different brigade, but this is the same Lt. Col/same brigade.

As I said, I can't see how they were able to get into a Russian HQ area - from what I've read, Wagner and the regular Russian Army have been....not friendly and butting heads, and the idea that Russian mercs could kidnap a Russian Lt. Colonel and torture him is fucking insane and a breakdown in Russian command and control.

Quote

PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut. They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them. They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.

 

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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15 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Looks like they bowed down to the Saudis who were complaining a month or two ago that they were overproducing

The history of OPEC is replete with members producing far beyond their quota. Now you have someone who has to ship their oil through undocumented means to avoid sanctions. It's still important that Russia makes this announcement as opposed to just telling the Saudis to fuck off. There is some small market signal value, at least in the short term. But it's laughable to think Russia is going to abide by this. The Saudis know this, too. They weren't born yesterday. 

The thing is, if the Saudis want to really fuck over Russia they can simply turn on the spigots and send the price of oil crashing, so there are consequences to poor behavior. I just don't know if Russia is in a position to be all that considerate of their future self. They need every bit of currency they can bring in right now. And it's not likely the Saudis are going to send the price of oil crashing except as some kind of last resort.

Bottom line is I don't believe this for one second except in the sense of being diplomatic. 

What the Saudis really need to crack down on to whatever extent they can - which seems to me very little - is the reselling of Russian oil by places like India for profit taking. I don't think it's realistic for anyone to stop countries from buying cheap Russian crude for their own consumption, especially when it's all done under the table. But when it's laundered and then resold into the market, it basically sends a signal to Russia to keep pumping out as much as possible, because someone is going to buy it, even at tremendously discounted prices. 

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In theory, the idea that Russian mercs could kidnap and torture a Russian Lt. Colonel is the kind of thing that should cause the Russian Army to fucking lay waste to Wagner. I still cannot believe this is being tolerated and that Prigozhin is still alive after this.  This is how Putin loses the support of the Russian military.

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13 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


I want to believe.

So, part of the reason I have sincere doubt about a lot of these videos (and the intercepted phone calls we've heard) is how matter of fact all of them are delivered. There doesn't appear to by any real emotion or anything in them. Be great of some of them were real, but I think a heavy dose of skepticism is in order. 

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6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

So, part of the reason I have sincere doubt about a lot of these videos (and the intercepted phone calls we've heard) is how matter of fact all of them are delivered. There doesn't appear to by any real emotion or anything in them. Be great of some of them were real, but I think a heavy dose of skepticism is in order. 

Yup.  It just feels like a lot of disinformation - more than usual say - is being slung about.  I get why it's happening, but my bullshit antennas are really perking up right now. 

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2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Yup.  It just feels like a lot of disinformation - more than usual say - is being slung about.  I get why it's happening, but my bullshit antennas are really perking up right now. 

This.  I'm thinking that most things we hear/read for the next 30 days should be ingested with a much-larger-than-usual dose of skepticism salt.  There's lots of reasons for stepped up disinfo by both sides in this phase, so wait-and-see is the best approach.....which sucks for us impatient bastards.

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On a side note, I got sucked into Greatest Events of WWII in Color on Netflix last night, was watching the Battle of Midway episode, and low and behold, there's Phillips Payson O'Brien doing commentary, did not realize it was the same guy who has written a lot about Russia.

Ukraine is pumping out a lot of info about movements

 

Quote

Many people have a fair question: what exactly is happening in the #Belgorod oblast now? It's simple. A classic boomerang. In fact, today it is... "disputed territories", a "gray zone", for which there is a confrontation between #Putin's army and the Russian Volunteer Corps – active Russian citizens who do not agree with #Moscow's genocidal policy and enjoy the support of the local population. That is, the battle of the Russian Goliath and the Russian David. #Ukraine is not involved in this conflict. We are watching the course of hostilities and once again call on the Moscow regime to cease fire in the Belgorod oblast, immediately sit down at the negotiating table with the #RVC, and stop the senseless bloodshed. Otherwise, the number of "disputed territories" will grow rapidly...

 

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I was watching the news on Sunday morning and there are still politicians running for president who want to trade land for peace. That is going to look like a crappy position to have taken next month. I'm surprised that they haven't all already pivoted. I guess they are thinking that if Russia is in turmoil that they can say that if a deal was made then there wouldn't be chaos and the possibility of nuclear weapons getting in the hands of terrorists.

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

So, part of the reason I have sincere doubt about a lot of these videos (and the intercepted phone calls we've heard) is how matter of fact all of them are delivered. There doesn't appear to by any real emotion or anything in them. Be great of some of them were real, but I think a heavy dose of skepticism is in order. 

I spent five years in Kazakhstan. That lack of emotion is very Russian in nature. 

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