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8 minutes ago, ABSR said:

You all thinking Russia did this are crazy!  I bet a US underwater Demolition Diver got undressed and left a boot near the Dam just like the Nordstream pipeline, and once found will conclusively show that the US/NATO did this.   Maybe some Sim City games too!

They'll find a coke can somewhere in the flood water....  "Only Americans drink Coke"  Checkmate!

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9 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Good news/bad news on the Nuclear Plant

In the event that the fuel can't be cooled, in theory (oh boy), the containment building should withstand the impending meltdown (yikes, when the meltdown is something you are trying to downplay)

The issue from the meltdown is different from the purpose of the containment building. The melting nuclear mass will heat and melt what ever is below it, until it comes in contact w/ the water (water reservoir a la Chernobyl) or the water table itself. Either scenario ... hot mass of metal + tons of water = explosive steam cloud ...Big Badda Boom ... and release of radioactive material into the air.

9 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Chernobyl's containment was basically nothing. Fucking Soviets.

The US reactor containment buildings were built to withstand a direct hit from a 747, or a catastrophic leak/explosion; ~ 4 1/2 ft thick reinforced concrete with a matrix of ~ 15 (?) layers of 2 1/4" rebar.  Note that they have a semi-spherical shape not unlike a pressure vessel, meant to dissipate the energy over a larger area. Whether or not they would contain a full blown meltdown & explosion is not known (Thankfully!!!). 

Chernobyl & Fukushima containment buildings were square in shape and appear to have much less reinforced concrete than the US version. More protection than a Walmart building, but neither one came close to containing the explosions within.

The Zaporizhzhia Reactor containment buildings look to be a combination of the two, more robust than C & F.  But Soviet design and construction, so all bets are off.

From what I read on the posts & threads here, it appears the higher water level in the reservoir is absolutely necessary during the power generation/cooling of the operating reactor, but is not as critical when the reactors are not operating. Photo's indicate a smaller contained reservoir proximate to the reactors that would suffice for maintenance cooling, as long as the reservoir is replenished, and used properly for its intended purpose.   With the Russkies in control of it, that's not a given.

8 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

It reminds me of Houston when they opened up the reservoir a few years back.

The Addicks Reservoir and Barker Reservoir were constructed in the 1930's to prevent downstream flooding of Buffalo Bayou in the City of Houston ("...to prevent Houston from washing into the Gulf"). Addicks Reservoir is formed by an earthen dam ~ 12 miles long with a 12-foot-wide gravel road along the top of the dam. During Hurricane Harvey, the Corp of Engineers opened the Addicks flood gates, which started the flooding along Buffalo Bayou.  Eventually, the water level in Addicks topped the dam spillway, causing uncontrolled flooding downstream, as well as upstream of the dam.

Everything in Cinco Ranch (8,000+ acre planned development) upstream of the Reservoir was built at an elevation above the Addicks Dam spillway, which infers that it would never flood. Harvey's 40+" of rain resulted in a water level higher than dam spillway, flooding a significant part of Cinco Ranch upstream of the dam.

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting. Looking at this angle the shit broke into the center. That is where the Russian's hit it the first time. Russia "kind of" controlled the dam, but those clean breaks were not airstrikes. This dudes says there were no air attacks. Smart engineers please chime in. 

"On this video, the worker of the Kakhovka dam claims that there were no aerial attacks on the dam suggesting that the explosions came from under the water. This checks out with the reports of the Ukrainian government from the last fall claiming that the russians mined the dam."

57 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Engineer here, do design of some small dams from time to time.  Demo of a dam is fairly simple if you have access to its base.  You just need a breach to start and it will go quickly, because water will find a way through it.  Could a single missile do it?  Unlikely but a bunker Buster might.  On the other hand, planting explosives at the downstream base and in the intake and release structures would certainly do it with minimal chance of not working.

 The pictures I’ve seen show a narrow breach which indicates no catastrophic structural failure, just a breach.  It’s probably still a total rebuild but I don’t see evidence of a huge flood wave resulting from it.  I’ll read up some more of it today.

Russia intentionally lowered the lake level for some time, before closing the gates and letting the lake fill to higher than normal levels. Russia would have had access to the upstream and downstream sides of the dam, as well as the inside of the dam itself.  Blowing shit up is easy. 

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2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’d think the main worry would be loss of an airframe than that the AFU would compromise the tech.

In any case, I was reading on The Warzone that these F-18s are upgraded to about C/D capability. And important— they’ve been in service with the Australian Air Force, so not exposed to salt water or bouncing around on a carrier. They should be pretty good airplanes.  And the Hornet is a more robust airplane than an F-16 because it was designed for carrier ops, a bit better for Ukrainian use. 

Agree, they would guard these MoFo's. In 5 years let's make sure they join the F-35 club. in the meantime, how about we hook them up with some Cobras with TOW missiles? Russia already has seen those airframes since Vietnam. 

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8 minutes ago, PTINS said:

From what I read on the posts & threads here, it appears the higher water level in the reservoir is absolutely necessary during the power generation/cooling of the operating reactor, but is not as critical when the reactors are not operating.

That's correct. Once the reactor is offline, the boron in the control rods will keep fusion from occurring, thus eliminating the need to reduce heat with fresh water. Assuming it's similar to a US reactor, the spend fuel is stored in pools that need no additional water either.

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34 minutes ago, ABSR said:

You all thinking Russia did this are crazy!  I bet a US underwater Demolition Diver got undressed and left a boot near the Dam just like the Nordstream pipeline, and once found will conclusively show that the US/NATO did this.   Maybe some Sim City games too!

Russian Telegram channels are talking about finding an imperialist Western shirt near the dam...

This is My Dam t-shirt - Hoover Dam tee

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24 minutes ago, PTINS said:

The Addicks Reservoir and Barker Reservoir were constructed in the 1930's to prevent downstream flooding of Buffalo Bayou in the City of Houston ("...to prevent Houston from washing into the Gulf"). Addicks Reservoir is formed by an earthen dam ~ 12 miles long with a 12-foot-wide gravel road along the top of the dam. During Hurricane Harvey, the Corp of Engineers opened the Addicks flood gates, which started the flooding along Buffalo Bayou.  Eventually, the water level in Addicks topped the dam spillway, causing uncontrolled flooding downstream, as well as upstream of the dam.

Everything in Cinco Ranch (8,000+ acre planned development) upstream of the Reservoir was built at an elevation above the Addicks Dam spillway, which infers that it would never flood. Harvey's 40+" of rain resulted in a water level higher than dam spillway, flooding a significant part of Cinco Ranch upstream of the dam.

I assume Cinco Ranch use to be rice fields. I wonder why.

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29 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Eventually, the water level in Addicks topped the dam spillway, causing uncontrolled flooding downstream, as well as upstream of the dam.

Everything in Cinco Ranch (8,000+ acre planned development) upstream of the Reservoir was built at an elevation above the Addicks Dam spillway, which infers that it would never flood. Harvey's 40+" of rain resulted in a water level higher than dam spillway, flooding a significant part of Cinco Ranch upstream of the dam.

This isn't correct. The water level never exceeded Addick's spillway. Water did escape around the north end of the dam, but that isn't the same as rising above the spillway. Water level topped out at 109', the spillway is 112'-115'.  

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2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

From a tactical point of view, this benefits the Russians.   It seems pretty straight forward from a military perspective to blow the damn to limit Ukrainian mobility in that sector.  

Strategically, it hurts the Russian in Crimea and hurts the Ukrainians everywhere.  

After the lake drains, I wonder how long it will take the lake bed to firm up to drive on? Wouldn't it be incredible in a couple weeks if Ukraine could just push straight from Nikopol to Enerhodar and take the ZNPP. Then, because there aren't any Russian defensive lines on the left bank of the lake from Nova Kakhova to Kamyanske, Ukraine could push all the way to Melitopol and the sea of Azov with little or no resistance. Which would be more or less game over for Russia in Ukraine. 

I'm going to believe this will happen, since Russia keeps coming up with new ways to fuck up

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Long read about timeline

——-

Very important on #Kakhovka. The chronology of the terrorist attack by Russian terrorists. Or how Russians screwed in their excuses.
 

At two o'clock in the morning, the Russians blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, but they don't see how much. It's not very visible, but it can still hit.

1. The Russians still think that they have neatly blown up a small part of the HPP and are flooding our military on the islands. At 6:06 a.m., the head of Nova Kakhovka, Leontyev, said that the explosion of the GES was nonsense. Like, we don't know why the water rose there. Here is the link to Ria Novosti's http://archive.is/aTyK8

2. Russian OSINT intelligence community Rybar picks up the thesis and says a small area was blown up at 6:51 a.m. Link http://archive.ph/flapa

3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF

4. But the propagandists, who do not know what the fuck has happened, continue to work according to the methodology and continue to throw into the information space that the dam was previously shelled, and then it got a little tired and broke a little. Here is a post by Podolyaki's propagandist http://archive.ph/DgQIV. And the propaganda channel War on Fakes http://archive.ph/GRN55

5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL

6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. Like it's a Bankova operation A reference to the same "war on fakes" that said the dam had somehow collapsed on its own.... http://archive.ph/x8uwT But even in their excuses, the racists still screwed up. Either the dam was blown up, or Olha was shelled with MLRS.... http://archive.ph/uF0Xm Although any sapper will give a hundred percent guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage here was done by planting explosives

And then they are already beginning to adhere to this thesis, because what they have done is a huge international tragedy, especially in the environmental sense.

I have translated this text from https://t.me/jurnko Telegram channel

 

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4 minutes ago, texastough said:

After the lake drains, I wonder how long it will take the lake bed to firm up to drive on? Wouldn't it be incredible in a couple weeks if Ukraine could just push straight from Nikopol to Enerhodar and take the ZNPP. Then, because there aren't any Russian defensive lines on the left bank of the lake from Nova Kakhova to Kamyanske, Ukraine could push all the way to Melitopol and the sea of Azov with little or no resistance. Which would be more or less game over for Russia in Ukraine. 

I'm going to believe this will happen, since Russia keeps coming up with new ways to fuck up

The Russians bought themselves several weeks if not months. 

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2 hours ago, Nivek said:

The sanctions should not end until Ukraine is completely rebuilt and all those responsible for this are in jail or dead.     

I think it is becoming increasingly plausible and defensible to envision Ukraine seizing substantial parts of Russian territory and either holding them for ransom pending the payment of reparations or simply taking assets from them under the general guise of reparations.

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22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This will find its way here eventually. WaPo reports this came from Discord leaks. 

Vatnik Twitter is oddly angry cause they are all in on “America did this.”


 

 

And?

Even if the Uke's did blow up Nord Stream, I'm kind of indifferent to it.  They are fighting for their lives.  Europe needed to be off Russia oil teet, they probably needed such a shock to act, and there've been about 100 Buchas since proving over and over that Russia needs to be put down like a rabid dog.  

Tl;dr:  It doesn't change the bottom line of fuck the Russians.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think it is becoming increasingly plausible and defensible to envision Ukraine seizing substantial parts of Russian territory and either holding them for ransom pending the payment of reparations or simply taking assets from them under the general guise of reparations.

That's going to be a difficult set of actions to square internationally. You know NATO and everyone else will balk at the concept. The MOST palatable thing the international community thing can handle from your post is probably Ukraine seizing Russian land. At least that they can square as "negotiating Russia to leave Ukraine." But when they start looting natural resources and other shit, that will not fly worldwide. 

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15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because we objected so loudly when the Soviet Union looted eastern Germany (and Poland, and Czechoslovakia, and Hungary)?

Ukraine is rapidly getting to the point where it receives the treatment from the United States that has historically been reserved only for Israel.  We arm it.  It does whatever the fuck it wants.  And then we run interference for it whenever anyone in the international community objects.

The difference is that Russia has nuclear weapons, and the Palestinian Authority (happily) doesn't.  But as I think we've seen, there are no red lines.  If Russia were willing to use nuclear weapons to defend its state borders, it would've done so already.  It hasn't.  And it won't.  And that means that Ukraine can take whatever it wants.  And it means that the United States will provide cover in the international community for Ukraine taking whatever it wants.

I hope you’re right, but I doubt it. Otherwise they wouldn’t have poo-pop’s an attack on Moscow. And the guys in Belgorod would be the real Ukraine army, not some plausible deniability natives. They’d be there in numbers. And we would give them ATACMs and atorm shadows would be hitting Russia. If your point was “they’re rapidly getting there” then ok, they need to fucking get over themselves and getting there. But let’s not pretend openly looting and turning the other way during ww2 is the same as looting in the digital age where everyone has a camera. It gets complicated real fast. 

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9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

 

I'm going with Option C - the dumbass Russians didn't know what they were doing or the consequences and fucked up. 

This explanation fits the story of the war so far: "Russia attacked, and made Russia's situation worse."

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42 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

And?

Even if the Uke's did blow up Nord Stream, I'm kind of indifferent to it.  They are fighting for their lives.  Europe needed to be off Russia oil teet, they probably needed such a shock to act, and there've been about 100 Buchas since proving over and over that Russia needs to be put down like a rabid dog.  

Tl;dr:  It doesn't change the bottom line of fuck the Russians.  

 

 

42 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

And?

Even if the Uke's did blow up Nord Stream, I'm kind of indifferent to it.  They are fighting for their lives.  Europe needed to be off Russia oil teet, they probably needed such a shock to act, and there've been about 100 Buchas since proving over and over that Russia needs to be put down like a rabid dog.  

Tl;dr:  It doesn't change the bottom line of fuck the Russians.  

 

I don’t give a shit if they did on the meta scale. They hurt no one and blew something up that never belonged there to begin with. My only hesitation is the potential to fracture NATO/Euro unity although for now it seems like that’s not on  the top of the agenda for anyone. 

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^ this is what I'm seeing so far. Russia isn't getting any kind of tactical or strategic benefit from this (in my extremely amateur opinion).

1. it doesn't reduce the front line by that much (remember it's over 2000km)

2. if they were doing so to re-deploy their forces that's going to be hard to do considering they just drowned them all (and their associated gear)

fucking idiots.

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13 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

I don’t give a shit if they did on the meta scale. They hurt no one and blew something up that never belonged there to begin with. My only hesitation is the potential to fracture NATO/Euro unity although for now it seems like that’s not on  the top of the agenda for anyone. 

Out of curiosity, in regards to the back and forth between myself and @Ghost of LL, how do you think American and the international community would react to the AFU occupying large swaths of Russia and looting it as form of reparations? LL, if I've misrepresented your position, please correct me. 

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

^ this is what I'm seeing so far. Russia isn't getting any kind of tactical or strategic benefit from this (in my extremely amateur opinion).

1. it doesn't reduce the front line by that much (remember it's over 2000km)

2. if they were doing so to re-deploy their forces that's going to be hard to do considering they just drowned them all (and their associated gear)

fucking idiots.

I have a hard time this doesn't fuck up any plans Ukraine might have had to cross the Dnipro and fuck up and take Crimea. I don't disagree with anything you said, but I feel like this sets back any attempts to retake Crimea by force while the mud and ground are all fucked up. But that is if that was their intent in the first place for their offensive. But yeah, I don't think they've fucked up UA's ability to wage war in any substantial manner. But they might have fucked up the preferred target and timing. 

Personally, at this point, I kind of hope Ukraine says "fuck it," goes and gets Mariupol and then just starts raining HIMARS north and south, Kerch Bridge first now that those dipshits fucked up their own drinking water situation.  

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57 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because we objected so loudly when the Soviet Union looted eastern Germany (and Poland, and Czechoslovakia, and Hungary)?

Ukraine is rapidly getting to the point where it receives the treatment from the United States that has historically been reserved only for Israel.  We arm it.  It does whatever the fuck it wants.  And then we run interference for it whenever anyone in the international community objects.

The difference is that Russia has nuclear weapons, and the Palestinian Authority (happily) doesn't.  But as I think we've seen, there are no red lines.  If Russia were willing to use nuclear weapons to defend its state borders, it would've done so already.  It hasn't.  And it won't.  And that means that Ukraine can take whatever it wants.  And it means that the United States will provide cover in the international community for Ukraine taking whatever it wants.

I have serious doubts that Russia would have used nukes already. I think there are two possible scenarios as to why. One being that it has been made abundantly clear to Putin that any nuclear explosion of Russian origin on European territory, even Russia’s own territory, would merit a nuclear response from NATO. The other being that Russia’s show of force has been to abysmal, so third-worldly, that Putin has serious doubts as to whether their nuclear arsenal is actually functional. 
 

If Russia had a failed nuclear attack that was an absolute dud or even a fizzle, then you would see their satellites start nibbling at the edges taking territory and likely Putin would be assassinated. Fear of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is way more powerful than that arsenal’s capabilities, at this point. 

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31 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

@Tuco come claim your prize from @Dahobbs

 

 

?

 

Edit: Wait, I see, you're posting something about the Nord Stream pipeline. Unfortunately, it only appears for a second on my computer and then disappears. So I have no idea what you're posting. Presuming it is about the leaked intelligence that connects it to Ukraine, I don't see why that should have much credence. It was apparently an anonymous source that couldn't be corroborated. If Russia wanted to blame Ukraine, setting up intelligence to blame Ukraine before you the explosion would be a good way to do it. 

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26 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I have serious doubts that Russia would have used nukes already. I think there are two possible scenarios as to why. One being that it has been made abundantly clear to Putin that any nuclear explosion of Russian origin on European territory, even Russia’s own territory, would merit a nuclear response from NATO. The other being that Russia’s show of force has been to abysmal, so third-worldly, that Putin has serious doubts as to whether their nuclear arsenal is actually functional. 
 

If Russia had a failed nuclear attack that was an absolute dud or even a fizzle, then you would see their satellites start nibbling at the edges taking territory and likely Putin would be assassinated. Fear of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is way more powerful than that arsenal’s capabilities, at this point. 

I think it's both.  And neither change with the loss of Belgorod or other similar territory in Russia's southwest.

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