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3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Not just to others, but to themselves as well. 

 

We are battle hardened - The Chinese certainly have no idea what it’s like to need to put on a holster in order to go to the mall.

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44 minutes ago, Pods said:

Ukraine has been a remarkably good judge of what they need to do so far in this war and I'm confident they'll be competent at cleaning up the battlefields after they force the Orcs back to Mordor. 

If Ukraine says they need them, give them the cluster munitions and anything else they are asking for.

Right there with you. Lot of out of work EOD people in the US and South Africa. 

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Confused Mark Wahlberg GIF by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/prigozhin-lukashenko-analysis-intl/index.html

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If we learned one thing from Thursday’s press conference by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it’s that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has not been seen in public since June 24, appears to be in a decidedly perilous limbo.

Lukashenko put a gulf of distance between himself and Prigozhin the Wagner boss when he said that neither Prigozhin nor his mercenaries were in Belarus, and it was unclear if they would ever move here. “He is in St Petersburg. Or maybe this morning he would travel to Moscow or elsewhere,” Lukashenko said in response to a question from CNN. “But he is not on the territory of Belarus now.”

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When Lukashenko was said to have brokered a deal to end Prigozhin’s would-be insurrection in Russia last month, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the agreement came about because Prigozhin and Lukashenko had known each other “personally for a long time, for about 20 years.”

But on Thursday, Lukashenko said that it was Putin who was Prigozhin’s longtime friend, who knew him “much better than I do and knows him longer than I do, about 30 years.”

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But on Thursday, Lukashenko insisted that were Wagner to come to Belarus, its mercenaries would have to sign documents with Belarus’ government.“When they decide to be located in Belarus, we will draft up a contract with them,” he said.

Just as we were learning that Prigozhin was in Russia, not Belarus, Russian state media released images from a reported police raid on Prigozhin’s office and residence in St. Petersburg. The footage — described by presenters as “scandalous” — shows what is described as a stash of gold, money and wigs, along with weapons and several passports apparently belonging to Prigozhin under different aliases.

 

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1 hour ago, Kdub said:

I'm guessing Priggy will have unfortunate fall out of a window in his future

40 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

That shit sipper is being set up by a defacto government to take the fall.

Like an off brand Lee Harvey.

When Lukashenko announced today that Prigozhin was still in Russia, well

He Looks Dead Amazon Video GIF by Red Oaks

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On 7/4/2023 at 1:11 PM, bolverk said:

Okay, this might *officially* be one of the more disturbing things I've seen about the Russians. It started with this meme on a pro-Ukraine account (@KvotheTheArcane):

Image

 

 

Now, I wasn't really sure what I was looking at, so I went into the comments, and others had the same question. It was explained that the Russian Army is now having to "palletize" their war dead, which is what you see wrapped in plastic. Don't mind the smears.

The above is the more viewer-friendly version of what you'd see. In the below [SPOILERED NSFL], a separate account was mentioned that has photos showing bodies before they've been shrinkwrapped.

  Hide contents

@bigSAC10

No body bags? No problem!

Just crush your comrades into meat cubes for easy transportation!
10:56 AM · Jul 4, 2023 · 44.6K Views

ImageImage

 

 

Next step in Russian military efficiency:


ground-beef-grinder.gif

Edited by Goredho
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So twitter is telling me that the Russians have relocated most of their units from the Caucus region to Ukraine (Hey Georgia, now might be a good time to get your shit back), as well as strategic defense locations in Asia.  

If Winnie the Pooh has strategic thoughts about eastern Russia, we may well find out soon.  

 

I have no confirmation of this from TikTok yet.  

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Zelenskyy is on to Slovakia where President Zuzana Caputova  has offered support for their their future in NATO. Later to Turkey. He allegedly had a spat with Bulgaria’s pro-Russia president earlier but Petr Pavel and Caputova will have been refreshing. 
 

Also, Zuzi, if you want someone to leave his life and be your kept man, I’m entertaining offers. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.dd4a82bbb06c9a31adfa912421768534.jpeg

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people are circumspect about cluster munitions because they are known to kill people well after the conflict is over.  treaty or not, we've got to be thoughtful about them.  but we are at a point where russia is really relying more on overwhelming numbers than sophisticated materiel/tactics, so i think this is a good time to start using them.

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3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Real happy to see cluster munitions coming. I just have not understood the hesitancy at all. We aren’t party to the international agreement not to use them. And the whole argument by humanitarian groups that they are dangerous to civilians rings entirely hollow to me in this situation. Using them while invading another country is one thing, as you’re creating a dangerous situation in somebody else’s future territory (like when we used them in the Middle East or when Russia uses them in Ukraine). But it’s an entirely different thing imo when it’s Ukraine using them on its own territory. They aren’t going to be using them near their own civilians. They are using them to kick the enemy out, and it will be their own responsibility to clean up afterwards. It should not be anybody else’s business what they choose to do to their own territory when it has zero impact on anyone else’s (as opposed to them using something like a nuke on their own territory that COULD affect someone beyond their borders). It’s a localized weapon that is perfectly suited to their situation. If they want them, I frankly find it disgusting that we haven’t provided them sooner. Especially since Russia is already using them all over Ukraine, and I guarantee those Russian munitions have a much higher failure rate than ours. So the biggest argument against providing them is moot.
 

But as with everything else in this war, better late than never!

Read my mind.  This is the Uke's decision.  If they want them, and they know they're going to have to clean them up (we'll likely help too), then give them everything we have to give. 

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12 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Read my mind.  This is the Uke's decision.  If they want them, and they know they're going to have to clean them up (we'll likely help too), then give them everything we have to give. 

Well, it's a hell of a lot easier to clean up mines and other explosive ordinance when you don't have someone else shooting at you, so there's that.  

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wapo:  the transfer allows for substantial unexploded ordinance.  6% in last measurement.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/06/biden-cluster-bombs-ukraine/

 

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Biden approves cluster munition supply to Ukraine

Transfer will bypass legal limits on dud rates for the controversial weapons

By Karen DeYoung

Alex Horton

 and 

Missy Ryan

Updated July 7, 2023 at 1:58 a.m. EDT|Published July 6, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. EDT

 

President Biden has approved the provision of U.S. cluster munitions for Ukraine, with drawdown of the weapons from Defense Department stocks due to be announced Friday.

The move, which will bypass U.S. law prohibiting the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent, comes amid concerns about Kyiv’s lagging counteroffensive against entrenched Russian troops and dwindling Western stocks of conventional artillery.

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It follows months of internal administration debate over whether to supply the controversial munitions, which are banned by most countries in the world.

Biden approves cluster munitions for Ukraine

 

Cluster weapons explode in the air over a target, releasing dozens to hundreds of smaller submunitions across a wide area.

More than 120 countries have joined a convention banning their use as inhumane and indiscriminate, in large part because of high failure rates that litter the landscape with unexploded submunitions that endanger both friendly troops and civilians, often for decades after the end of a conflict. The United States, Ukraine and Russia — which is alleged to have used them extensively in Ukraine — are not parties to the convention. Eight of NATO’s 31 members, including the United States, have not ratified the convention.

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The principal weapon under consideration, an M864 artillery shell first produced in 1987, is fired from the 155mm howitzers the United States and other Western countries have provided Ukraine. In its last publicly available estimate, more than 20 years ago, the Pentagon assessed that artillery shell to have a “dud” rate of 6 percent, meaning that at least four of each of the 72 submunitions each shell carries would remain unexploded across an area of approximately 22,500 square meters — roughly the size of 4½ football fields.

“We are aware of reports from several decades ago that indicate certain 155mm DPICMs have higher dud rates,” said a defense official, one of seven Pentagon, White House and military officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive decision. The defense official used the acronym for Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions.

The Pentagon now says it has new assessments, based on testing as recent as 2020, with failure rates no higher than 2.35 percent. While that exceeds the limit of 1 percent mandated by Congress every year since 2017, officials are “carefully selecting” munitions with the 2.35 percent dud rate or below for transfer to Ukraine, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said Thursday.

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The defense official said details of the new assessments were “not releasable,” including how, when and where the tests were done, and whether they included actual firing exercises or virtual simulations. Military manuals say these weapons cannot be fired in training because they are part of war reserve stockpiles.

There is no waiver provision in the 1 percent limit Congress has placed on cluster munition dud rates, written into Defense Department appropriations for the last seven years. Biden would bypass it and Congress, according to a White House official, drawing down the munitions from existing defense stocks under a rarely used provision of the Foreign Assistance Act, which allows the president to provide aid, regardless of appropriations or arms export restrictions, as long as he determines that it is in the vital U.S. national security interest.

The final U.S. decision to provide them to Ukraine was first reported Thursday by the Associated Press.

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Although the United States has used cluster munitions in every major war since Korea, no new ones are believed to have been produced for years. But as many as 4.7 million cluster shells, rockets, missiles and bombs, containing more than 500 million submunitions, or bomblets, remain in military inventories, according to estimates by Human Rights Watch drawn from Defense Department reports.

A 2022 Congressional Research Service report to lawmakers noted “significant discrepancies among failure rate estimates” of cluster weapons in the U.S. arsenal, with some manufacturers claiming 2 to 5 percent, while mine clearance specialists have reported rates of 10 to 30 percent.

Nonproliferation experts said that the Pentagon’s assessed 2.35 percent dud rate most likely refers to aging shells with updated fuses designed to improve their ability to self-destruct, but that it was impossible to know without access to the testing data.

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Advocates who have warned against using cluster munitions say the claimed lower dud rates are the result of testing in idealized and unrealistic conditions that don’t account for real-world scenarios. The Army’s artillery manuals have said even the military’s own dud rates can increase depending on the angle of impact and type of terrain in which they fall.

“It’s dismaying to see the long-established 1 percent unexploded ordnance standard for cluster munitions rolled back as this will result in more duds, which means an even greater threat to civilians, including de-miners," said Mary Wareham, advocacy director of the arms division of Human Rights Watch.

“The lack of transparency on how this number was reached is disappointing and seems unprecedented,” Wareham said.

While Russia has used cluster munitions far more extensively, Ukraine has also allegedly deployed these weapons during the war, using its own Soviet-era stocks or shells obtained from other countries. A new HRW report released Thursday said Ukrainian use “caused numerous deaths and serious injuries to civilians” in attacks in the city of Izyum and other locations in 2022. Ukraine has denied using cluster munitions.

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The dud rate is both morally and legally key to supplying the weapons. In 2008, then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates issued a directive banning the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent and imposed a 10-year deadline for destroying existing weapons that exceeded that limit. Numerous nongovernmental and media reports have documented one subsequent use — against an al-Qaeda training camp in 2009 — although the United States has never confirmed nor denied the attack.

The Trump administration in 2017 reversed both the dud limit and the timeline for destroying any munitions that exceeded it, after which Congress adopted the legislative language banning any funding for the use, production or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent, even as major defense manufacturers canceled production contracts under pressure from shareholders and public opinion.

In an interview this week, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said obtaining a significant supply of the weapons has become crucial to Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive.

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The United States and other Western donors have sent millions of non-cluster howitzer shells to Ukraine, but stockpiles are running low and manufacturing cannot keep up with demand. It “is not enough,” Reznikov said. “The Russians use three or four times more artillery shells of different calibers than we do. And we must conserve because we can’t shell as intensively,” he added.

“Since these projectiles are effective,” Reznikov said of cluster munitions, “they will allow us to make up this difference.” The Russians “are using them against us, so for our self-defense we have full right to use the same munition.”

“This is just for where there are fields, because it’s very important not to bring harm to the civilian population,” Reznikov said. “We won’t use them before the de-occupation of a city.”

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As Ukraine’s pleas for the weapons have increased in recent months, they have been met with both agreement and disapproval by U.S. lawmakers. In late March, a group of senior Republicans, including the chairmen of the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees, and the ranking members of the counterpart Senate committees, said they were “deeply disappointed” in the administration’s “reluctance” to provide the weapons.

“Providing DPCIM,” they wrote in a letter to Biden, “will allow Ukraine to compensate for Russia’s quantitative advantage in both personnel and artillery rounds, and will allow the Ukrainian armed forces to concentrate their use of unitary warheads against higher-value Russian target.”

Others, including many Democrats, are less enthusiastic. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, said that he was open to supplying the munitions to Ukraine but that he still had not been provided additional information about what is being sent and how it will be used.

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The administration is “trying to send the ones with the lowest possible dud rate, which makes sense,” Smith said in an interview Monday. “The question is: Are there munitions that have that low dud rate? I’ve been told repeatedly that ... yes, there are.”

“The Russians have been dropping these things with dud rates that are a hell of a lot higher than 8 percent all across Ukraine for a year and a half now,” he said.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, which, along with Human Rights Watch, compiles information for the Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, a Swiss-based international organization, noted the Pentagon’s failure to release any information on its new assessments and transfer plans. “We requested consultations about this months ago in a formal letter,” he said, but had received no reply.

Provision of the weapons has also been controversial within the administration. In remarks to the U.N. Security Council a week after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, accused Moscow of using “exceptionally lethal weaponry,” including cluster munitions, that “has no place on the battlefield” and is “banned under the Geneva Convention.” Her “no place” reference was later excised from the State Department’s official transcript of the speech, which was also amended to note that the Geneva Conventions ban cluster use “directed against civilians.”

The administration began to soften its position on providing cluster munitions this past spring as the shortage of standard artillery munitions became more acute. Biden said in May that cluster weapons “may” be considered, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is said to have recently dropped his opposition.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Russia’s reported use of cluster weapons early in the war, saying, “This is brutality, this is inhumane, and this is violating international law.”

The administration has worked in recent weeks to allay allied concern over the transfer of the weapons to Kyiv, according to a second White House official. “The president’s top priority is maintaining unity among our allies and partners in support of Ukraine, and we would not take any actions that would undermine that priority,” the official said. As a result of allied consultations, “if we were to move forward” with cluster munitions, “we are confident that would not be an issue.”

The U.S. military has long considered cluster munitions a useful battlefield weapon. That position was reaffirmed in March testimony before the House Armed Services Committee by Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of the U.S. European Command and supreme allied commander of NATO. “We call it dual-purpose, because it releases bomblets, some of which are anti-personnel fragmentation grenades and some of which are shaped charges that attack vehicles from above,” Cavoli said. “It’s a very effective weapon.”

The munitions can be an attractive option for commanders to destroy troops or equipment in big groups, or when a target can’t be pinpointed by precision artillery. But they also come with drawbacks for the forces using them.

Army artillery doctrine warns that DPICM submunition duds “can pose significant risks to friendly personnel and equipment.” A 2017 manual puts the overall dud rate for cluster rounds at 2 to 3 percent, while warning the rate could increase if procedures aren’t followed or if uneven terrain disturbs the angle required for detonation.

In addition to the risk of civilians picking up unexploded duds long after a battle, they can also pose more immediate danger to the forces deploying them. “There’s definitely a lot of tactical risks in employing these types of munitions. It limits your ability to maneuver, and limits your ability to maneuver quickly, because you have to be clearing a bunch of UXO,” or unexploded ordnance, said a former U.S. Army artillery officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid conflicts with his current employer. “It’s gonna slow you down, it’s gonna limit the ways in which you can exploit success.”

The U.S. history of what are considered “friendly fire” incidents is a concern: Several U.S. service members were killed during and after the Gulf War by unexploded munitions, according to a 1993 Government Accountability Office report, which said the Army did not hold force-wide training to recognize submunitions on the ground before the invasion.

“Someone within DOD knows the actual dud rate,” the former officer said, “and I hope that would be communicated honestly and accurately to any Ukrainian unit receiving these types of munitions.”

Isabelle Khurshudyan in Kyiv and Abigail Hauslohner contributed to this report.

 

 

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NYTimes article on the increasing difficulty for Ukrainian soldiers to get donations for provisions from individuals and other groups as public interest wanes.

https://archive.ph/eVsQo

One passage:

“Most people are just tired of this war already,” said Ruslan Zubariev, a soldier from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, who became a one-man fund-raiser after he used a helmet camera to film himself stopping a Russian advance nearly alone. “Civilians don’t realize that if they’re tired and stop donating, it doesn’t mean the war is over.”

Mr. Zubariev, 21, was in a unique position in February after his video, which showed him killing several Russian soldiers and stopping an armored vehicle with a rocket launcher near the Russian-held town of Svatove, went viral. His unit, up to that point, had relied mostly on outside volunteers bringing in equipment. After uploading his video he gained thousands of Telegram and Instagram followers practically overnight.

So Mr. Zubariev monetized his battlefield valor, a move he saw as necessary since the military seemed unable to supply much of the equipment they needed to fight, he said in an interview.

“We repair cars, we repair equipment, we repair weapons. We repair this, this, this, this, this — generators, fuel, all of it. It all breaks down,” he said. ”We don’t get that stuff issued to us. We buy it all with our own money.”

 

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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

Real happy to see cluster munitions coming. I just have not understood the hesitancy at all. We aren’t party to the international agreement not to use them. And the whole argument by humanitarian groups that they are dangerous to civilians rings entirely hollow to me in this situation. Using them while invading another country is one thing, as you’re creating a dangerous situation in somebody else’s future territory (like when we used them in the Middle East or when Russia uses them in Ukraine). But it’s an entirely different thing imo when it’s Ukraine using them on its own territory. They aren’t going to be using them near their own civilians. They are using them to kick the enemy out, and it will be their own responsibility to clean up afterwards. It should not be anybody else’s business what they choose to do to their own territory when it has zero impact on anyone else’s (as opposed to them using something like a nuke on their own territory that COULD affect someone beyond their borders). It’s a localized weapon that is perfectly suited to their situation. If they want them, I frankly find it disgusting that we haven’t provided them sooner. Especially since Russia is already using them all over Ukraine, and I guarantee those Russian munitions have a much higher failure rate than ours. So the biggest argument against providing them is moot.
 

But as with everything else in this war, better late than never!

First of all, I agree.

But the following needs to be considered:

  • If you don't believe the US will be paying for cleanup and reconstruction in Ukraine I think you are fooling yourself.  - It's in our best interests to do so, but that's going to be a hard sell to some Americans and demining will be an expensive and long process.
  • The US also needs to help Ukraine keep international support for their cause, immediately handing over weapons that have PROVEN to hurt civilians erodes that support.
  • America's military power is not seen as a universal force for good that most Americans think it is.  American weapons doing damage and killing kids and farmers for 20 years won't help that image at all.  It won't matter that we supplied them as part of a request from their own people to the families of dead children.  Rockeye is controversial for a reason.  Handing it over has risk to US reputation / soft power.

That said, it looks like after careful consideration we are moving forward.  I applaud the decision and that it was NOT made lightly.

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Something interesting to see is that the Czechs not only flew Zelenskyy from Bulgaria to Prague, they also flew him to Bratislava and now onward to Turkey. Some unspoken but powerful messaging about how Prague feels—- and from a practical POV, a security warning to Russia not to fuck with the flight. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Something interesting to see is that the Czechs not only flew Zelenskyy from Bulgaria to Prague, they also flew him to Bratislava and now onward to Turkey. Some unspoken but powerful messaging about how Prague feels—- and from a practical POV, a security warning to Russia not to fuck with the flight. 
 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Bratislava sucks. The beer is expensive and bad and the women are ugly and there’s nothing to do or see in Slovakia or anywhere nearby. American men should stay away for sure. 

Gotta love that exchange rate though

 

6b48871f-136e-4849-9a20-00251af60e6f_tex

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Bratislava sucks. The beer is expensive and bad and the women are ugly and there’s nothing to do or see in Slovakia or anywhere nearby. American men should stay away for sure. 

Sounds like you went in the winter time!

Every time I hear or see Bratislava, I think of that bit. 

Spoiler

Scotty Doesn't Know

Spoiler

Don't tell Scotty

 

 

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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

Again, why should that matter to anyone other than Ukraine? It's their territory, and they'll be the ones stuck cleaning it up. I don't give a shit if it's 50% failure rate. If they're OK with that, then fucking give it to them.

if we ever transferred anything with a 50% unexploded rate, i'd hope we'd fire everyone who was within 1000 yards of being involved with that decision.

 

zone-rouge.png

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And by shit ton, the guy in the video says he thinks we have seven figure amounts of 155 mm cluster shells in storage.    Ukraine asked for some in December.   Let’s give more 155mm artillery some spare barrels and a half million shells of cluster (and a crate of earplugs) and tell them to plow the fields
I agree on the cluster ammo.   Should have done this long ago. 
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1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

I agree on the cluster ammo.   Should have done this ling ago. 

The endless game of no but maybe but yes is getting exhausting. I would say entirely understandable at first as we tried to suss out what would be a Russian red line (actually we decide our own red lines) and how long and hard AFU would fight (forever, magnificently). But at this point they have a good point in that we ask them to fight in a way we never would. And they are fucking doing it. 
 

On the flip side, Ukraine itself made decisions for decades that left it vulnerable and hard to help in advance. But the war isn’t a time to litigate that. I just wish that Biden, at 80, would think more about his legacy and bit less about the hyperventilating defense and foreign policy mandarins who really do make this shit more complicated than it needs to be. Partly because otherwise they can’t show they’re valuable. 
 

Does he want to be the POTUS that won the war and defeated Russia? Or does he want to be another sad American diplomatic history footnote of a misadventure that managed to be both overreaching and milquetoast at the same time?  We’re good at the latter, but capable of the former….

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