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3 hours ago, Nivek said:

You weren't hurt or in direct need of help.  I was once driving on I-35 out of Austin when the bridge was iced over.  Most cars were just stopping, and letting only one car at a time drive at idle speed across the bridge.  I waited my turn and followed suit.  Some dipshit decided not to, and joined me on the bridge.  He drove faster than I did and then I watched him spin out and the back of his car hit the concrete rails.  As I idled on by, I looked over, smiled and waved.   He earned that.  He was fine. 

If it was on the I-35 & 183 bridge in 1972 and the spin out car was a white over pink 1958 Oldsmobile 88 sedan, then that was me.

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Listening to the BBC last night (god…our media is such shit in comparison), and one of the guys they had on was ex American military, Cold War era. He talked about Soviet doctrine, and how Russia was still following it…and it might work.
Let your opponent wear himself out, ceding some but minimal territory to him. When he’s lost any men/materiel advantage he might have had, use your superior artillery numbers and manpower reserves (ultimately, what’s important is bodies; 3-4 untrained ones are as good as a trained one, and Russia has plenty to mobilize still)…that’s when you advance.
Russia can wait this out for a long time. Ukraine can’t.

Russia doesn't have the numbers of equipment that they did during the Cold War.  If they did, we would have already seen them using it - meanwhile Ukraine is starting to pick off very high-value targets at will, whether it's a submarine or multiple ships or anti-aircraft batteries or big-ass expensive anti-aircraft missile systems or oil platforms that were basically radar pickets.  None of this is replaceable by Russia, especially the ships and the S-400 batteries (not to mention two drydocks that are out of service for a long time) - they are having to bust ass just to increase missile production as it is (But still not using them against military targets).  We are also starting to see Ukrainian aircraft generating a lot more sorties.

As for manpower, this is their 5th or 6th wave, and at this point, it consists of people who weren't smart enough to leave a year ago, or who were deemed unworthy for the previous waves. As we saw last week, they are loosening restrictions on the ill/mentally ill.  The Soviets had 290 million people when they collapsed, now they are less than half that, and this 5th or 6th wave of mobilization is truly scraping the bottom of the barrel.

If Russia was going to do a truly mass mobilization, they should have mobilized a few million earlier last year, not this piddly little shit of a few hundred thousand here and there, because if they don't reverse all of these gains soon, Ukraine will be cutting off Crimea by land, and Russia doesn't have the logistics to reverse that.

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2 hours ago, Hawndoh said:

Russia's strategy seems to be just lob missiles at civilians and wait out the 2024 US elections. Russia's path to victory is another Trump administration.

I'm fairly libertarian and no fucking way in hell that happens - unless Joe Biden gets impeached for doing family favors or a democrat third party candidate gains traction. Too many pubs are going to abstain. 

And that isn't a path to Russian victory anyway. This war will be over before the winter of 2024. Ideally for political purposes the Biden administration will start delivering more long range stuff this winter and will continue doing so through the election cycle. If he cuts it too close and Ulkraine hasn't won yet and Trump wins, Biden will send a bunch of stuff to Ukraine so the next administration's POV will be irrelevant. 

 

Sorry in advance for responding to the CR comment. Report both posts if you want. 

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I'm fairly libertarian and no fucking way in hell that happens - unless Joe Biden gets impeached for doing family favors or a democrat third party candidate gains traction. Too many pubs are going to abstain. 
And that isn't a path to Russian victory anyway. This war will be over before the winter of 2024. Ideally for political purposes the Biden administration will start delivering more long range stuff this winter and will continue doing so through the election cycle. If he cuts it too close and Ulkraine hasn't won yet and Trump wins, Biden will send a bunch of stuff to Ukraine so the next administration's POV will be irrelevant. 
 
Sorry in advance for responding to the CR comment. Report both posts if you want. 
Counterpoint. Oil prices, juiced by the Saudis, regardless of Potos performance, is all it takes to sway our electorate. Full stop, NoCR


Probably important to get in front of domestic political narratives if you care about Ukraine winning and being afforded continued support by the US should things here. Weigh that carefully with other issues you may value like Drag shows...
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40 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

That's really something. I wonder what they were firing at.

Something either extremely important or fairly spread out that they didn't want to give any warning to and they probably bailed quickly after that.

Given that the Russians are mostly keeping their logistics/HQ out of HIMARS range these days, I wonder if they were hitting an area that they were about to launch an attack thorough or if the Russians foolishly massed a group of soldiers or vehicle.

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“First Prigozhin. Now Kadyrov." - Russian Telegram channels write. Some say that he has already died, some that he is in critical condition and fell into a coma due to severe kidney failure or that he was poisoned.

Up until recently, Prigozhin and Kadyrov were the only two people in Russia with significant power resources who allowed themselves their personal “discussions” about the course of the war.

After the murder of Prigozhin, I immediately wrote that Kadyrov would be next.
Let's see if Putin's regime is really getting rid of everything and everyone who can afford autonomy and his own private heavily armed army.

If Kadyrov dies, the situation in Chechnya might change. Will Putin be able to keep control over Chechnya? Will it become the center of resistance once more? This could be a chance that people of Chechnya could make use of.

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On 9/15/2023 at 10:53 PM, Gatorubet said:

The Israelis converted a bunch of Shermans using French 102 mm guns (that was barrel shortened and had a unique muzzle brake.). They stuck them on some Shermans (with the larger turrets using the 1944 era 76 mm canon) - and the M-51 was born.  

They even fucked up a bunch of Arab Russian tanks in the Yom Kippur war. Nobody wanted to be hit by a T-55 with Sherman armor, but the Israeli tankers were so well trained they were able to get off a lot of shots from greater distances than the Arab tankers using Russian kit.  

IMG_1697.jpeg.11a6ba05254e9bd0ab1a4c77c074419c.jpeg

Sort of the last charge of the fighting Shermans.   I think some wound up in Chile.  If I could buy one of those babies that worked and get it to Ukraine, I would love to meet my maker trying to blow up T-55s with Russians in them.  

 

I think I would rather just drive my kids to school in it.

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1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Why would Putin kill Kadyrov?   Kaddy made a great lacky.

Only a guess, my theory would be that Putin didn't care for Kadyrov having even the remote appearance of some level of equality in terms of importance In Russia.  Ramzon always appeared deferential to Putin, but after Prigozhin perhaps he's made the decision that these larger than life personalities are potentially a threat to him.   The other thing is that while on the surface it would appear that Kadyrov did everything Putin wanted, behind the scenes I'm not sure he committed to battle nearly as much as the bravado would lead you to believe.  

At any rate, I do hope that its true that he's dead.  Kadyrov was one of the biggest pieces of shit walking the surface of our planet, and every day he breathed air was a loss for all of humanity.  What it leads to out of all this, I have no idea.  

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Exercise in question.  Didn’t have Kansas being a major player on my bingo card.

https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewPressRelease/Article/3517700/us-and-armenian-forces-to-participate-in-peacekeeping-training-in-armenia/

Also making Russia paranoid 

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Approximately 85 U.S. Soldiers will train alongside approximately 175 Armenian soldiers during Eagle Partner, a peacekeeping training exercise in Armenia, from Sept. 11-20.

The U.S. Soldiers from the 1st Brigade, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) and Kansas National Guard, and the Soldiers from the Armenian 12th Peacekeeping Brigade will conduct the training at Zar and Armavir Training Areas near Yerevan.

Quote

“Eagle Partner is a vital opportunity for our soldiers from our two nations to build new relationships at the tactical level and to increase interoperability for peacekeeping operations,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell, U.S. Army Europe and Africa. “It also builds upon the 20-year relationship that the Kansas National Guard has cultivated with Armenia.”

As part of the Department of Defense’s State Partnership Program, the Kansas National Guard has had a state partnership with Armenia since 2003. The exercise is planned to prepare the Armenian 12th Peacekeeping Brigade for a NATO Operational Capabilities Concept (OCC) evaluation under the NATO Partnership for Peace program later this year.

 

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So  lemme see- you let the murderers and rapists and the most violent scum of your corrupt society out of prison to join a private mercenary group so they can commit war crimes in Ukraine.  And then, after their failed march on Moscow and they are broken up, Putin’s government decides that no one can employ them.

And this comes after Putin kicks wounded Wagner’s fighters out of hospitals, and refuses to give pay relatives for deaths or pay the wounded.  

Honestly, I can’t see how having a bunch of career criminal murdering scum being lied to by the government could result in any problems down the road.   That Putin, he is playing 5D chess.

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So  lemme see- you let the murderers and rapists and the most violent scum of your corrupt society out of prison to join a private mercenary group so they can commit war crimes in Ukraine.  And then, after their failed march on Moscow and they are broken up, Putin’s government decides that no one can employ them.
And this comes after Putin kicks wounded Wagner’s fighters out of hospitals, and refuses to give pay relatives for deaths or pay the wounded.  
Honestly, I can’t see how having a bunch of career criminal murdering scum being lied to by the government could result in any problems down the road.   That Putin, he is playing 5D chess.


I mean, it isn’t like we had any issues in Iraq after we said Baathists couldn’t be employed. All those young idle military aged men weren’t a problem for us or the nascent democracy of Iraq at all. Seems like the same thing.
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Exercise in question.  Didn’t have Kansas being a major player on my bingo card.

https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewPressRelease/Article/3517700/us-and-armenian-forces-to-participate-in-peacekeeping-training-in-armenia/

Also making Russia paranoid 

 

Don't mess with Kansas.

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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

So what kinda charges can we bring to these aholes?  And does our Federal Government have the will to do so?

The poorly kept secret is that we really aren't looking to drive Russian oil out of the market. We just want sanctions to cut how much they make off of it.

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Phillips P. O'Brien's weekend substack:

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An Astonishing Week for the War at Sea; the Counteroffensive--Tokmak or not?; Second Ukraine-Russia War Talk podcast this week.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
     
 
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Weekend Update #46

An Astonishing Week for the War at Sea; the Counteroffensive--Tokmak or not?; Second Ukraine-Russia War Talk podcast this week.

Sep 17
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This week witnessed one of the most well executed and planned operations of this war so far, the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastapol. This kind of operation is one of the reasons I remain confident that Ukraine will win the war—they have the ability to execute complex operations at a much higher level than the Russians.

The Sevastopol attack came after a number of other operations to weaken Russian defenses, making it possible for the Ukrainians to launch the attack with actually a small number of missiles and drones. Sevastopol should have been one of if not THE most heavily defended places for Russia anywhere in the area of fighting—and yet the Ukrainians pulled it off. If they can keep it up, as I said when I first heard of the attack, it could signal the end of Russia’s ability to hold Crimea.

What it also showed and subsequent events supported this further, is that hear we are, 19 months after the full-scale invasion, and what is staring us in the face is that Ukraine is not only holding its own in the seapower war—it is actually winning it. This is even more shocking to most than what is happening on land, so it might be worth spending some time on how we got here.

Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

An Astonishing Week for the War at Sea

The developments over the last week came tumbling one after another—culminating last night with the docking last night of two cargo vessels, Resilient Africa and Aroyat, in Ukrainian ports.¹ If these vessels are now safely loaded with grain and make their ways out of the Black Sea (which has not happened yet) it will mean that Ukraine has been able to defy Putin’s declared blockade of shipping into and out of Ukraine. This blockade has been one of the key elements of Russian strategy since last year. It achieved a number of important things for Putin. First it was to economically damage Ukraine, by depriving Ukraine of the ability to export grain, one of the most important parts of the Ukrainian economy. The second, and most perverse, was to drive up grain prices, potentially causing great economic harm worldwide (particularly in the global south) even leading to significant starvation—the idea being that this would put pressure on Ukraine’s backers to force Ukraine to accept a bad deal and let the grain flow. Finally, a blockade on Ukrainian grain would force up the price of Russia’s own grain exports, giving Putin more cash. All in all, you can see why the blockade was so important.

And, btw the way the blockade is the clearly stated policy of the Russian government. The earlier grain shipment deal, which suspended the blockade, was ended by Russia in July.² Thus the Russian position is that they can stop all shipping in and out of Ukrainian ports—it just seems that now they cant. And much of the reason can be seen by what has happened over the last week or so. To make it clearer, it might be useful if I go through the most important steps, so you can see how they build upon each other, revealing that, remarkably, Ukraine seems to be in a better position in the naval war (without a navy).

In going to start by going back a few weeks ago and mention this event—the destruction of one of the most advanced anti-air systems in the Russian arsenal, which so happened to be based in Crimea.³

  An S-400 battery explodes in Crimea.  

This in itself was an extremely well planned operation (which allowed the Ukrainians to even film it). Why this important because its been part of a Ukrainian plan to weaken Russian anti-air capabilities in Crimea. Crimea overall and Sevastopol in particular, was one of the highest priorities for Russian air defense, and the Ukrainians have gone about weakening Russian capabilities.

These earlier efforts were key to allowing for the most spectacular operation of the week, the attack on Sevastopol itself. This really was thought out. The Ukrainians could see that the Russians had two valuable warships in drydock, one a Kilo class submarine (which is capable of firing missiles at Ukraine) and the landing ship Minsk, which is capable of transporting significant loads of supplies (logistics).

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What the Ukrainians seem to have done is used a mixture of air launched cruise missiles (Storm Shadows and Scalps) with some decoys to confuse the Russian anti air assets that were operating. Whatever the number (the Russians said 10 missiles were launched, but my guess is that they added missiles and decoys together) at least two got through and made direct hits on the ships.

These were so well selected targets. Not only were the warships themselves extremely valuable and important, but the Ukrainians might very well have severely degraded the repair and maintenance facilities at Sevastopol. Note, this wont be because of damage to the drydocks themselves, but because of the heavy tools and equipment needed to affect the repairs. Its worth seeing how long it takes the Russians to clear the drydocks and get new hulls in their for work (if they actually risk doing it again).

This one attack is extremely ominous for the Russians. If the Ukrainians can keep it up and continue to sink Russian shipping in Sevastopol, they could force the Black Sea Fleet to rebase to Russia, which would be a key step in their plan to seize back Crimea. I talked about that in my midweek substack.

Of course the attack on Crimea was not all. There were also, almost simultaneously, sea drone attacks by the Ukrainians on Russian vessels out in the Black Sea. Though the numbers are rather unclear, since September 13 the Ukrainians have attacked successfully at least three and maybe four Russian ships at sea, another extremely worrying sign for the Russians. There was at least one picture of a Russian patrol vessel being towed back into port with a significant list—a sign of damage.

I think we can say that the Russians are now very worried about these attacks, as they have started to pull ships out of the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov (this is exactly what Ukraine wants). Russian ships in the Sea of Azov are marginalized away from the action—as you can see in this map.

  https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama  

This brings up back to where this update started—with merchant ships now proceeding into Ukraine for loading. With the Russian navy being forced back and out of the action, the only option the Russians have is to attack these ships with missiles and try to sink them that way. They dont have the ability to stop the ships and force them from Ukrainian ports. This is exactly the decision the Russians didnt want to have to make. Its very different destroying merchant ships with citizens from around the world, and at the same time sinking ships bringing grain to the Global south—than stopping them. So far the prospect of trying to sink these vessels is too problematic for even Putin to do—which is why these ships have safely reached Ukrainian harbor.

If they load up and safely lead, its could mark a very important moment in the war at sea. The moment the initiative transferred almost entirely to the Ukrainians (who dont have a large warship at their disposal). You can see why it was quite a week.

The Counteroffensive--Tokmak or not?

Its been interesting to see how the discussion of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has moved over the previous weeks. In some ways, the understanding of what is slow, what is achievable, what is a success/failure has improved. If I would say what is the most important development of the last few days, its the appearance of Tokmak as the ultimate goal of this stage of the counteroffensive.

Now both Estonian intelligence and UK intelligence are discussing the Ukrainians reaching or making Tokmak a very high priority in the coming weeks/months.

Tokmak always made sense as a serious priority for the Ukrainians. Its deep enough into Russian controlled territory that it would allow the Ukrainians significant fire control over the movement of supplies from east to west. Using Andrew Perpetua’s excellent map, you can see where it is.

If the Ukrainian reach Tokmak, this will work extremely well with their ongoing plans to isolate Crimea. Basically, it means that getting supplies to the Russian army west of Tokmak (a large area all the way to the Dnipro in Kherson oblast) will be severely restricted. So keep your eyes on Tokmak—we might have a real marker at that point to judge success or not for the Ukrainians in the counteroffensive.

Second Ukraine-Russia War Talk podcast this week

I just wanted to give you a heads up that Mykola Bielieskov and I will record our second podcast this week, as part of our new series entitled Ukraine-Russia War Talk. The first episode was a much bigger hit than we could have imagined, more than 13000 downloads just through this substack.

We are working to get it on Apple and will try to get it more professionally packaged (we are trying to source a logo). We just never expected it to be quite so popular. Im not sure we will have a logo by this week—but we will have another podcast. And rest assured, there will be lots of talk about Crimea, Sevastopol and the war at sea (amongst other things).

Have a great rest of the weekend everyone!

 

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20 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I imagine that those crews were figuring out how to disable their own tanks right outside Ukrainian line of sight.

[T-55 crews] Damndest thing Sir. All 5  of T-55's lined up side by side have same engine problem. Blyat tank, like woman, maintenances cycles have synced. Once  fixed, we will have transmission problem. Then maybe something go wrong with treads. Oh well,  we have stay here. [/T-55 crews]

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