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17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody wondered if some of it is due to them being scared of friendly fire incidents, but that doesn't explain the opening 24 hours when they could have been doing a lot more, when not as many Russian units were engaged/close to Ukrainian units.

The whole thing is still so fucking weird.  This one particular FB group I'm in has a variety of people who went to high school together and almost all of us who enlisted did it in the late 80s/early 90s when the military was still somewhat stuck on the Cold War mentality (even as the Soviet Union/Eastern Europe was changing) and still trained that way.  Even those who did college/military academy first still entered the military in the mid/late-90s when Russia was the Big Baddie.

And those strategies we had still trained on had clearly worked in the first Gulf War.  The logistics chains we used to move a massive amount of materials to Saudi Arabia, as well as in-depth combined arms attack/movement weren't something that was ginned up in late 1990 as a response to Kuwait's invasion. That was all based on plans to reinforce Europe, fight in Central Europe, and those plans probably stretched back to the '70s.

But that raises another issue.  Our military these days are led by folks around 15 years older than me, and they had to pivot from the early 80s Cold War stuff to things like the Balkans, and Afghanistan and later Iraq 2003, but the US pivoted, even if it was painful at times.

The Russians can't seem to pivot, especially if they are repeating mistakes they made in the 1990s and on up through Syria.  This whole BTG thing seems like a colossal fuckup.

Our logistics system is the best in the world.  Those guys learned a lot of lessons from World War 2.  They have learned to quickly pivot on what needs to be shipped an what doesn't.  It doesn't hurt that we have superior air power and a massive fleet of planes.  We also quickly grab our civilian fleet to fly things and the last mile is military.  It also helps that we don't get shot at while moving stuff.  Look at Iraq.  Most of that shit was done through KBR or some other contractor outlet.  It helps tons.  

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2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Well, I’m not sure how smaller  German units could have held off a huge convoy of Allied forces during Market Garden, but shit be cray

We did not listen to our intel. Hope the Russians make the same mistake. Just saw this. If already posted I apologize. Looking for additional sources. 

AP backing up the claim. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-ee7cdf19bdab43a22cb1391c98c62b4d

 

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15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Ok, now that's interesting.  On it's face and below the surface.

As far as I am aware, you don't get "good visibility" into the behavior of Putin from a Rivet Joint RC-135 or satellite recon  . . . .

That seems to be the kind of information that can get an asset killed.  If there is an asset there.  It would be a dangerous game to put something like that out just to rattle cages.

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Interesting point I read elsewhere, but nonetheless interesting:

 

Putin forgot that he had personally stolen the military budget needed to maintain his own army.  Estimates put Putin's personal net worth anywhere from 50 Billion to 500 Billion, all of it stolen from the Russian the people.  We have don't have a great picture of his overall finances because he's done all this behind the scenes with the use of black budgets (i.e. military) hidden from people view in the auspicious national security.  

 

So basically, he's projected huge military strength when in reality he's spent the last 20 years stealing the money needed to have said strength.  Here's the weird part, now he seems shocked that his military is barely functional despite the fact that he is the one who made it that way.  

 

The cognitive decline argument I think at the very least has some valid points.

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21 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Our logistics system is the best in the world.  Those guys learned a lot of lessons from World War 2.  They have learned to quickly pivot on what needs to be shipped an what doesn't.  It doesn't hurt that we have superior air power and a massive fleet of planes.  We also quickly grab our civilian fleet to fly things and the last mile is military.  It also helps that we don't get shot at while moving stuff.  Look at Iraq.  Most of that shit was done through KBR or some other contractor outlet.  It helps tons.  

Yeah, I mean we have cargo ships under USN command pre-positioned all over the globe.  https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Prepositioning-PM3/

It's unglamorous but hugely important stuff.  Not sure it's having an impact here, yet, but it exemplifies our commitment to logistics.  We've fought three "wars" half a world away in the span of fifty years.  We may have made a lot of mistakes, but by and large, logistics wasn't one of them.  Not compared to this Russian fiasco.

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28 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Ok, now that's interesting.  On it's face and below the surface.

As far as I am aware, you don't get "good visibility" into the behavior of Putin from a Rivet Joint RC-135 or satellite recon  . . . .

I'm just spitballing here but I really don't think anyone inside his inner circle is talking.  He has his most trusted people in there and comms outside are probably locked down hard.  We aren't going to have some deep mole risking his life saying yeah Putin's angry.  It's part of the misinformation we are trying to spread.  When your leader is doing shit that doesn't make sense the best way to do psyops is tell the masses he's getting crazy and leading you to your death.

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1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I mean we have cargo ships under USN command pre-positioned all over the globe.  https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Prepositioning-PM3/

It's unglamorous but hugely important stuff.  Not sure it's having an impact here, yet, but it exemplifies our commitment to logistics.  We've fought three "wars" half a world away in the span of fifty years.  We may have made a lot of mistakes, but by and large, logistics wasn't one of them.  Not compared to this Russian fiasco.

We also have the War Reserve Material stationed in strategic places. Need a field hospital set up? We got one. 

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3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I mean we have cargo ships under USN command pre-positioned all over the globe.  https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Prepositioning-PM3/

It's unglamorous but hugely important stuff.  Not sure it's having an impact here, yet, but it exemplifies our commitment to logistics.  We've fought three "wars" half a world away in the span of fifty years.  We may have made a lot of mistakes, but by and large, logistics wasn't one of them.  Not compared to this Russian fiasco.

Whenever I watch "Mr. Roberts", I think about the guys on those ships, sailing from boredom to tedium and back.  A whole different kind of hero.

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7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Interesting point I read elsewhere, but nonetheless interesting:

 

Putin forgot that he had personally stolen the military budget needed to maintain his own army.  Estimates put Putin's personal net worth anywhere from 50 Billion to 500 Billion, all of it stolen from the Russian the people.  We have don't have a great picture of his overall finances because he's done all this behind the scenes with the use of black budgets (i.e. military) hidden from people view in the auspicious national security.  

 

So basically, he's projected huge military strength when in reality he's spent the last 20 years stealing the money needed to have said strength.  Here's the weird part, now he seems shocked that his military is barely functional despite the fact that he is the one who made it that way.  

 

The cognitive decline argument I think at the very least has some valid points.

Quoting myself must seem exceedingly self absorbed but I forgot to mention one other thing and I don't know how to edit here.

I'm betting there are some dark money hedge funds shitting their collective britches right now, because if you have the best auditors in the world hunting down all this money, you know some of this lands in that world.  I wouldn't at all be surprised in the coming months and weeks a lot of the inexplicable venture capital running around is going to be tied to this.

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9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Interesting point I read elsewhere, but nonetheless interesting:

 

Putin forgot that he had personally stolen the military budget needed to maintain his own army.  Estimates put Putin's personal net worth anywhere from 50 Billion to 500 Billion, all of it stolen from the Russian the people.  We have don't have a great picture of his overall finances because he's done all this behind the scenes with the use of black budgets (i.e. military) hidden from people view in the auspicious national security.  

 

So basically, he's projected huge military strength when in reality he's spent the last 20 years stealing the money needed to have said strength.  Here's the weird part, now he seems shocked that his military is barely functional despite the fact that he is the one who made it that way.  

 

The cognitive decline argument I think at the very least has some valid points.

That, and there is probably theft at every level of the Russian military.  Some plywood for my dacha here, some grenades to raise some mad money there, it adds up.

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21 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

So any theories as to why we’ve seen minimal Russian cyber activity? Internet is still up in Ukraine. I would think that would be one of the first things for them to eliminate. 

Many of the hacking groups members reside in the Ukraine. Some groups are staying out of the fight and one of the bigger Russian ones had a Ukrainian member go all "Slava Ukrani" after their group sided with Russia so he went rouge and put their shit on blast.

TLDR, Russia relied too much on Pirates who are not reliable and have their own loyalties.

 

https://therecord.media/conti-ransomware-gang-chats-leaked-by-pro-ukraine-member/

 

Edited by F250
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3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I mean we have cargo ships under USN command pre-positioned all over the globe.  https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Prepositioning-PM3/

It's unglamorous but hugely important stuff.  Not sure it's having an impact here, yet, but it exemplifies our commitment to logistics.  We've fought three "wars" half a world away in the span of fifty years.  We may have made a lot of mistakes, but by and large, logistics wasn't one of them.  Not compared to this Russian fiasco.

 

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

We also have the War Reserve Material stationed in strategic places. Need a field hospital set up? We got one. 

Yeah I remember twice where we had a little snafu.  Once for all the tobacco users on board, we got told we were sailing from Washington to Guam so we bought enough tobacco for two weeks and was going to load up in Guam but the Norks decided to do something stupid.  And we ended up hanging out for 60 days without tobacco.  It got really moody on board 

The second one our supply officer forgot to order ice cream and we went that entire deployment without ice cream.  CO wouldn't let that one go and the crew gave the Chop shit every time we saw him.  The next deployment was ice cream sundae bar every night.

The third one he thought well the crew doesn't need that much peanut butter I'd they just ate what the cooks made.  Well, during that deployment the Senior Chief cook and some of the better cooks transferred so everyone ate peanut butter sandwiches because the food sucked so bad.  

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12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Quoting myself must seem exceedingly self absorbed but I forgot to mention one other thing and I don't know how to edit here.

I'm betting there are some dark money hedge funds shitting their collective britches right now, because if you have the best auditors in the world hunting down all this money, you know some of this lands in that world.  I wouldn't at all be surprised in the coming months and weeks a lot of the inexplicable venture capital running around is going to be tied to this.

Those are MSC ships.  Those guys live like kings.  I mean after all you have all the food.  It's mainly civilians with a few sailors onboard.  But their life is cake.  Filipino Mafia connection is the only way you are a sailor and attached to that.

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1 minute ago, mchookem said:

i mean i'm kinda curious as to exactly what he thought was gonna happen...🤔

He thought he would get his way as usual.  Total bully thinking to be honest.  The saying fucked around and found out has never been more appropriate.  Leave out all the other factors, even the ones I just mentioned, but this is the actual truth.  He did it because in his entire adult life, he has never really had anyone stand up to him.  The people of the Ukraine are to be admired for a long time for this (regardless of how it ends), because other powerful people had this chance many times and refused out of either cowardice or turning a blind eye.  

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42 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

That seems to be the kind of information that can get an asset killed.  If there is an asset there.  It would be a dangerous game to put something like that out just to rattle cages.

Was thinking the same thing. This makes the most sense if we DON'T have an inside man, but want him to think we do. 

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So the idea of Ukraine waving the the white flag keeps occurring to me. We had the “rah rah freedom!” The first few nights…but many kids aren’t going to have a chance to live if they keep this up


I guess is “the cure”(fighting for freedom) worse than the disease(putin takes over war savaged Ukraine)? Russia is fucked regardless if the sanctions are held in tact. Plus maybe Finland and Sweden joining NATO?

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48 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I mean we have cargo ships under USN command pre-positioned all over the globe.  https://www.msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Prepositioning-PM3/

It's unglamorous but hugely important stuff.  Not sure it's having an impact here, yet, but it exemplifies our commitment to logistics.  We've fought three "wars" half a world away in the span of fifty years.  We may have made a lot of mistakes, but by and large, logistics wasn't one of them.  Not compared to this Russian fiasco.

There were a lot of lessons learned after the first Desert Storm. We absolutely were unprepared from a cargo ship perspective back then. But the build up was long enough it didn't matter. 

Logistics has always been a strength of the US military, for sure. Because of it, I tend to take it for granted in some ways. And then I see what's happening in Ukraine and I stop taking it for granted so much.

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So the idea of Ukraine waving the the white flag keeps occurring to me. We had the “rah rah freedom!” The first few nights…but many kids aren’t going to have a chance to live if they keep this up


I guess is “the cure”(fighting for freedom) worse than the disease(putin takes over war savaged Ukraine)? Russia is fucked regardless if the sanctions are held in tact. Plus maybe Finland and Sweden joining NATO?

I think it is hard for us to grasp the mindset since we are fortunate to live in a place that never gets invaded due to geographical and other reasons.

Try to picture Mexico being far more powerful than the USA and they invade us and start shelling Austin, SA, Dallas, and Houston. Would you be motivated to fight them and risk your life?
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47 minutes ago, F250 said:

Many of the hacking groups members reside in the Ukraine. Some groups are staying out of the fight and one of the bigger Russian ones had a Ukrainian member go all "Slava Ukrani" after their group sided with Russia so he went rouge and put their shit on blast.

TLDR, Russia relied too much on Pirates who are not reliable and have their own loyalties.

 

https://therecord.media/conti-ransomware-gang-chats-leaked-by-pro-ukraine-member/

 

48 words requires a TLDR? I write 48 paragraphs and figure people will either ignore it or figure it out. I'm impressed.

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Also, at this point it seems like anybody still in Kyiv would be viewed as war criminals to Putin and shipped off to gulags or defenestrated. Surrendering seems like death anyhow. Not to mention the general fight for your homeland/future generations. 

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6 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:



Try to picture Mexico being far more powerful than the USA and they invade us and start shelling Austin and Houston. Would you be motivated to fight them and risk your life?

Not sure if I have to picture it. It actually occurred.
Lopez de Santa Anna. 
And we would do it again if we had to. 

Yes, we. 10th generation Tejano here. 

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12 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

Not sure if I have to picture it. It actually occurred.
Lopez de Santa Anna. 
And we would do it again if we had to. 

Yes, we. 10th generation Tejano here. 

I mean that wasn’t an invasion, that was Texas breaking away from what was already mexico.

Its a shitty situation to be in. Ukraine can’t keep this up. I imagine all their military shit will be confiscated, but Russia doesn’t have the manpower to search every civilian household for weapons or things like that. If I was ukraine I’d surrender and get ready to carry out insurgency & guerilla warfare. Years of that + the sanctions will force russia out eventually you would think. Plus that won’t get your cities leveled.

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There's been some discussion about why many of the Russian tanks don't have slat armor and whether it would help much against the drones, NLAW and Javelins. 

Doesn't look like it helped these guys much, though R/TankPorn says they are spaced too far apart. 

image.png.86e0488cfac9801d567e85161fa3089a.png

 

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11 minutes ago, Pods said:

There's been some discussion about why many of the Russian tanks don't have slat armor and whether it would help much against the drones, NLAW and Javelins. 

Doesn't look like it helped these guys much, though R/TankPorn says they are spaced too far apart. 

image.png.86e0488cfac9801d567e85161fa3089a.png

 

The double explosive with the time delay.

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3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

No idea where you're from, my friend, but welcome.  Been married to a Slovak for 10 years now and I still just know the basics lol.  You're doing quite well.  

Got dammit Sooner you done been wooshed. The hint was the unfamiliar equipment that he loaned his non-Latin-keyboard-using friend.

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Damn. I was buried with work until late yesterday and it looks like there is zero chance of catching up with this thread given the speed at which it moved yesterday.

 

Anyway...first the Green leadership supports rearmament, and now they are supporting extension of the nuke plants. Idealism in a whole bunch of young Green Germans getting a cold dose of reality these past three days.


 

Quote

Extension of nuclear life: Energy companies open to talks
Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck has brought into play longer runtimes for the German nuclear power plants. Now the first energy companies are open to a conversation.


 

Berlin, Düsseldorf ---Robert Habeck said the unspeakable: As a Green politician, he did not categorically rule out extending the service life of the last three nuclear power plants in Germany beyond 2022. In view of the worsening escalation of the West with Russia, he will not "ideologically ward off further use of nuclear energy in Germany," Habeck had said in the ARD program "Report from Berlin" on Sunday evening. His ministry is checking this.
 

The War of Ukraine is changing everything - including energy policy. Habeck is more committed than ever to the construction of two LNG terminals, he advocates investing a coal reserve. And now he touches on the last and at the same time biggest taboo: the extension of the running times of nuclear power plants.
 

And the War of Ukraine is also changing the attitude of nuclear power plant operators. Even at the weekend, the three companies - Eon, EnBW and RWE - had declared in unison that an extension of the terms was not suitable for them. Now they open the back doors.
 

A spokesman for Eon told Handelsblatt: "We have been preparing for years both technically and organizationally for the decommissioning and dismantling of our nuclear power plants." Against the background of the acts of war in Europe and the resulting risks to security of supply, it is understandable to put the current energy policy conditions to the test.

 

"In this exceptional situation, we as Eon are ready to talk about the technical, organizational and regulatory boundary conditions under which an extended use of the Isar 2 nuclear power plant would be possible, if this is expressly desired by the federal government," said the Eon spokesman.
 

At EnBW, it sounds even more winding, but here, too, you can see the basic willingness to talk about the topic. With the energy transition, Germany is pursuing a clear path, which is essentially described by the phase-out of nuclear energy and coal-fired power generation as well as the expansion of renewable energies. This is the destination path to which we as EnBW have also committed ourselves and to which we feel committed," said a company spokeswoman - and then adds: If it is necessary due to the war in Ukraine and "inevitable for security of supply", EnBW will help to "expadicate all possibilities open to technology".

 

Only RWE sticks to its previous position. "There is a clear legal regulation for the shutdown of nuclear power plants. Our power plant in Emsland is geared towards discontinuation at the end of the year, at that time the fuel will be used up," said an RWE spokesman. "Unless with coal-fired power plants, continued operation would easily not be feasible, but there are extremely high hurdles, both technically and under licensing law," he added. However, it is understandable that the federal government is examining all supply options in this serious situation.

 
Three nuclear power plants are still in operation in Germany: Emsland (RWE), Isar 2 (Eon) and Neckarwestheim 2 (EnBW). They will go offline at the end of 2022 after the decisions on the nuclear phase-out of 2011, the year of the reactor accident in Fukushima. The power plants account for around three percent of electricity production in Germany.
 

Criticism of idea of longer nuclear power plant runtimes due to Ukraine war
 

Habeck has thus started a debate that should hardly be captured anymore. The Greens are trying not to fall in the back of their minister. The party members have heard very well that Habeck's statement was very restrained. And they know that Habeck is under pressure.
 

Russia is Germany's most important supplier of natural gas, hard coal and oil. Deliveries may soon be cancelled. Habeck must ensure that sufficiently secured power plant power is still available.
 

Federal Environment Minister Steffi Lemke (Greens) rejects the idea of longer runtimes despite the special situation: "For safety reasons, I do not consider an extension of the service life of the last three nuclear power plants in Germany to be responsible," said the minister.

Ingrid Nestle, energy and climate policy spokeswoman for the Green parliamentary group, is also sceptical about the debate: "I do not see any convincing arguments that would speak in favor of extending the terms. In order to implement an extension, lengthy and technologically demanding processes must be set in motion," Nestle told Handelsblatt. "Until next winter, and this will be decisive, this can no longer be done seriously," she added.

 

Economists see it differently. Lars Feld, head of the Council of Experts until February 2021 and today Chief Advisor to Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), considers longer terms advisable. "There is a lot to suggest that it will take the nuclear power plants a little longer for renewables to be more developed," Feld told Handelsblatt. If the last three nuclear power plants were shut down, they would no longer be available as an option for security of supply.
 

At the end of last week, Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute, had already discussed an extension of the runtimes: "Les dependence on Russian gas requires an extension of coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants in the short term until sufficient gas from other sources and more renewables are available," he wrote on Twitter.

 
Hubertus Bardt, Managing Director of the Institute of German Economy (IW), takes a similar view to the 31. December 2022, it must be carefully examined whether the coal and gas supplies are sufficient to be able to do without three more nuclear power plants," he said.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energiewende-verlaengerung-der-atomlaufzeiten-energiekonzerne-offen-fuer-gespraeche/28115058.html?ticket=ST-4760578-JGIiVefDlgx3hQWfQQYT-ap6

 

 

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9 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Last I read, that flight from Russia was evacuation of diplomats.

Meanwhile, in Kharkiv:

 

As awful as this was, I can't help but think they missed.  Yes the shock wave was certainly deadly, but in terms of damage, they didn't hit what they meant to.  Russian missiles are at best quasi accurate and fired by people only quasi competent.  

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