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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

The Ambassadors were fired because "they had contact with Russia." That's all they said in the news. So that could mean a lot of things.

 

They possibly got contacted by Russian interests about some kind of off-ramp or resolution that was less than total recovery of Ukrainian land. Even if they were not receptive, any contact with Russian interests that were not reported to Zelenskyy would be a big problem.

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42 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Those shitty Russian Mig's will get blown out of the sky by our American SAM's.  And they know it.

Start putting a dent in those cruise missiles too. 

21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

Don't believe either government but the OSINT community is pretty good at calling out bullshit fairly quickly. All that said, still a lot of fog of war. 

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

If the Russians deny it or say it’s not true, it’s always 100% opposite of what they deny.

take 5% of what the Russians say and about 70% of what Ukrainian gov says.

 

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3 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

It’s incredible how poorly managed European energy is, can’t understate that enough. They put their neck on the chopping block in cahoots with Russia and it was very obvious for some time how vulnerable they have made themselves. 

I believe @Shady Ray mentioned a while back that cheap Russian natural gas allowed Germany to manufacture products and low enough cost to be competitive. Its why part of why they made the decision they made to decommission the nuclear plants and use natural gas/coal. Its why they are still clinging to what they can get from Russia and are riding a line of what they think they can get away with without pissing off Russia.

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It's HIMARS o'clock!

Spoilered for those who don't want to give Dailykos a click: (I understand - they are kind of kooky)

Spoiler

The first season of the Ukraine War was the assault on Kyiv, ending with Russia’s humiliating retreat. The second season was the Battle of Donbas, which ended on a cliff hanger with Russia taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk (and with it, Luhansk Oblast) amidst horrific casualties on both sides. Season three has just begun, and it picks up our heroes in their continued defense of the rest of Donbas (Donetsk Oblast) while “setting the conditions” for the liberation of Kherson. But mostly, Season Three is about logistics, and the latest cast member, HIMARS, is stealing the show. 

Prior to last night, there had been anywhere from a dozen to 18 ammo and C2 (command and control) targets hit by HIMARS and other Ukrainian long-distance rockets. But last night, the floodgates opened.

This post will be a roundup of those attacks, demonstrating the culmination of years of pent-up Ukrainian frustrations—knowing where Russia kept its weapons stores and being unable to do anything about it. Until now. 

Shakhtarsk

 

Click on the first tweet to get an entire thread full of videos of the burning site. The attack took place at 4 am, and was still burning well into the morning. 

Alchevs’k

 

Chystiakove

Khartsyz'k

Zuhres

Possible consequences of all these attacks? 

Command and Control getting hit hard, too: 

Translation:

- New Kakhovka, Kherson region. - Yesterday's attack on the command post of the 49th army, air defense, and warehouses with missiles for air defense. According to preliminary data, more than a hundred were destroyed, about 200 were wounded, half of whom were severe, some of whom would not survive.

Nova Kakhovka is east of Kherson, and is strategically important for two reasons: 1) it is the mouth of the canal that delivers water to all of Russian-occupied Crimea, and 2) is the location of a major “filtration camp,” Russia’s version of concentration camps.

Down in Kherson, the barracks of the Russian Rosgvardia national guard—Putin’s personal army—got hit by HIMARS overnight. 

Russians are frustrated, like our old friend Igor Strelkov. 

Igor has a point—remember when we worried about Russia interdicting arms supplies into the country? That never happened, and Russia has zero capability to do so. Their Air Force is afraid to fly more than a few kilometers from friendly territory, and certainly won’t push deep into Ukrainian airspace. And remember that Russian air strike against an unguarded Snake Island, attempting to destroy equipment they left behind? They dropped four bomb, three missed the island altogether and landed in water. Forget trying to hit anything accurately. 

They lack precision-guided rockets, preferring to use their unguided trash against residential buildings, needing only to target the general vicinity of a neighborhood to accomplish their terrorism. Their vaunted Spetsnaz special forces units (akin to our Green Berets or Navy SEALS) are clearly incapable of operating behind enemy lines. So HIMARS and its ammo pods and 155 mm artillery shells and all that good stuff can be railed and trucked to the front lines with little impediment. 

The same used to be true for Russia and their supplies, so long as units stayed close to their supply railheads. But that’s no longer the case. 

HIMARS is having a notable and real impact on Ukrainian morale. 

Man at the site of a vicious Russian attack sees a CNN reporter, and his response is a gleeful “HIMARS!” That certainly cuts across any language barriers. 

It certainly looks like Ukraine has a long list of targets to hit, limited only by the $840,000 ammo pods the United States can deliver. At some point, however, when they’re closer to the big expected late-summer, early-fall counterattack, these strikes will start hitting Russia’s air defenses, preparing the way for drones and warcraft to pummel Russia’s front-line defensive emplacements. 

We can really see why the U.S. Marines are ditching all their tube artillery in favor of HIMARS.

Sunday, Jul 10, 2022 · 9:57:13 AM Central Daylight Time · kos

More on the Kherson attack. 
 

The base got hit twice. Once last night, and again at 10 am in the morning. That’s what you do to target first responders and others digging through the rubble. It’s ugly business, war. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

It's HIMARS o'clock!

Lets Go Start GIF

Sounding like Russian artillery is really starting to slow down, and HIMARS taking out all kinds of stuff.

The interesting thing is that Ukraine is being open about this, specifically announcing that Zelensky has given the orders to the Defense Minster to retake the coastal area.

 

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is a very rough list of folks I follow, I'm not on my iPad (and it's more than I thought by around 5).  These are almost all people who have solid backgrounds, and were writing about Russia and/or Ukraine well before February.  A few of them came to prominence/came into being after things started in February because they filled a niche, but I follow them because they document their sources, and are presenting solid information that is not being compiled elsewhere, or they are presenting it in a much better fashion than others.

More than a few of these people lived in Russia or live/lived in Ukraine and so the topic is very personal to them, and they may feel (or are) biased, but arguably they back it up objectively.

No particularly order, all should be linked.  And I'm kind of surprised, I follow a wider range of disciplines and experience than I thought.

  1. Julia Davis - comments on Russian state TV (Russian speaker, has followed Russia for years) aka Russian Media Monitor
  2. Julia Ioffe - Russian-born, and has written about Russia and Putin for years, she comments a lot about the bigger picture.  She and Julia #1 comment a lot about the bigger picture of Russian politics and Putin's goals.  She mixes in politics, including American politics.
  3. Mark Hertling - Retired US General, commanded in Europe, provides lots of military commentary at a higher-level 
  4. Mick Ryan (War in the Future) - Australian general, comments a lot about modern/future warfare
  5. Rob Lee - OSINT type, provides a shit-ton of photos and videos documenting both Ukraine and Russian actions.  He constantly references back to old tweets to provide updates on whatever it was, and he has an odd system (odd if you aren't used to it) that can be confusing, in that he's working with the tracking people so he'll have tweets that are numbered, and you kind of have to follow his system or otherwise you don't get why he's retweeting tweets from earlier in the day, etc.
  6. Jack Detsch - Pentagon reporter, has broken stories about various aid/hardware, as well as what the US military is doing/thinking
  7. Kyiv Independent - great news organization.
  8. Illia Ponomarenko - writes for Kyiv Independent, does a lot of investigative stuff inside of Ukraine, and long posts from combat zones.  Also calls out a lot of bullshit when he sees it.
  9. Ukraine Weapons Tracker - OSINT, tracking stuff from both sides
  10. Oryx - OSINT, tracking military hardware losses for both sides, as well as military aid given to Ukraine
  11. @KilledInUkraine - OSINT, grim, but they document Russian officers killed in Ukraine using Russian social media and/or photo/identification of Russian officers in the field. It's one thing when you hear about a Russian officer being killed, and another when you realize 170+ Captains or 50+ Lt. Colonels have been killed.
  12. Nathan Ruser - another OSINT type, lots of geolocation and mapping stuff, does a lot of solid commentary down in the weeds and up at 35,000 feet
  13. Max Seddon - Moscow bureau chief for Financial Times, 
  14. @TheStudyofWar - Institute for the Study of War (great website: https://www.understandingwar.org) - they put out a lot of the highly detailed maps everybody is using.
  15. Nolan Peterson - writes for Coffee Or Die, Ukraine-based war reporter (since around 2014)
  16. @ChristopherJM - journalist, has covered Ukraine/East Europe for over a decade, Ukraine-based
  17. Polina Ivanova - another Financial Times reporter specializing in Ukraine/Russia, she covers a lot of the economic and geopolitical fallout, and does investigate stuff (like Russia stealing Ukraine's grain, etc.)
  18. Henry Foy - yet another Financial Times reporter covering Ukraine/Russia/etc.
  19. War on the Rocks - great site (https://warontherocks.com) last year, predicted Russia's supply problems if they invade Ukraine, lots of deep dives on military topics
  20. Jomini of the West - writes on war issues, Russian history, etc.
  21. Kevin Rothrock - Writes on Russia, Ukraine War, etc., part of Meduza, that worked to get information into Russia under the censors
  22. @PhillipsPOBrien - Professor at University of St Andrews, Scotland, does a lot of long-form writing about these topics, and a good twitter follow
  23. Michael MacKay - Another writer, long form commentary about Ukraine/Russia
  24. LiveUAMap - Maps and info about Ukraine 
  25. Amelia Smith - she covers the aerial side of things, including NATO flights around Ukraine

Yeah, 3-4 Financial Times reporters, but they are covering the shit out of this war, and they do a helluva lot of well-sourced deep dives into the economic issues.

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

I missed those, they are on my big list.

I also like Perun, the Australian military accountant guy.

Speaking of…

 

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8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

Was coming to add Kofman and Meduza is excellent.

If you interested into getting some background on the Russian military before the conflict Kofman has some great lectures on YouTube about Russian attempts at modernization and reorganization. 

He also does a (sometimes) weekly podcast on War on the Rocks and some Sundays with Dmitri Alperovitch, including last night:

 

 

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

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1 hour ago, Fico said:

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

Another one I forgot, including one of the contributors/founders.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev

Edited by atomheartbevo
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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I missed those, they are on my big list.

I also like Perun, the Australian military accountant guy.

Speaking of…

 

Just finished Perun's new video. As always he does some great analysis. Interesting point he made was Russians brag how many shells they fire a day, even though we know that's due to accuracy and ISR problems, leading to barrels burning out faster.

Seeing other Russian/Soviet systems, I doubt they have highly proficient way for barrel replacement and regular maintenance on the pieces. 

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1 hour ago, Fico said:

Was coming to add Kofman and Meduza is excellent.

If you interested into getting some background on the Russian military before the conflict Kofman has some great lectures on YouTube about Russian attempts at modernization and reorganization. 

He also does a (sometimes) weekly podcast on War on the Rocks and some Sundays with Dmitri Alperovitch, including last night:

 

 

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

This is a good catch and as @atomheartbevo mentioned, Christo Grozev who works with them is also a great follow. I’m pretty sure he is on Russia’s sanctions list, so you know he’s under their skin.

Former Ambassaor Mike McFaul is an extremely good follow as well, he has a good sense of moral clarity and was a Russia expert long before he got tapped as the envoy for Obama. 

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27 minutes ago, Fico said:

Just finished Perun's new video. As always he does some great analysis. Interesting point he made was Russians brag how many shells they fire a day, even though we know that's due to accuracy and ISR problems, leading to barrels burning out faster.

Seeing other Russian/Soviet systems, I doubt they have highly proficient way for barrel replacement and regular maintenance on the pieces. 

Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

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4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

That people don't learn from the mistakes of their fathers?  Or in this case, their grandfathers?

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Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

It means we’re in a world war. Nobody wants to say the words, but when it’s a full on hot European frontal war, with the US VERY involved…that’s what it is.
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24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


It means we’re in a world war. Nobody wants to say the words, but when it’s a full on hot European frontal war, with the US VERY involved…that’s what it is.

Agree and that's a full industrial war. Hopefully the munition factories have already been ramping up. 

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11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is a very rough list of folks I follow, I'm not on my iPad (and it's more than I thought by around 5).  These are almost all people who have solid backgrounds, and were writing about Russia and/or Ukraine well before February.  A few of them came to prominence/came into being after things started in February because they filled a niche, but I follow them because they document their sources, and are presenting solid information that is not being compiled elsewhere, or they are presenting it in a much better fashion than others.

More than a few of these people lived in Russia or live/lived in Ukraine and so the topic is very personal to them, and they may feel (or are) biased, but arguably they back it up objectively.

No particularly order, all should be linked.  And I'm kind of surprised, I follow a wider range of disciplines and experience than I thought.

  1. Julia Davis - comments on Russian state TV (Russian speaker, has followed Russia for years) aka Russian Media Monitor
  2. Julia Ioffe - Russian-born, and has written about Russia and Putin for years, she comments a lot about the bigger picture.  She and Julia #1 comment a lot about the bigger picture of Russian politics and Putin's goals.  She mixes in politics, including American politics.
  3. Mark Hertling - Retired US General, commanded in Europe, provides lots of military commentary at a higher-level 
  4. Mick Ryan (War in the Future) - Australian general, comments a lot about modern/future warfare
  5. Rob Lee - OSINT type, provides a shit-ton of photos and videos documenting both Ukraine and Russian actions.  He constantly references back to old tweets to provide updates on whatever it was, and he has an odd system (odd if you aren't used to it) that can be confusing, in that he's working with the tracking people so he'll have tweets that are numbered, and you kind of have to follow his system or otherwise you don't get why he's retweeting tweets from earlier in the day, etc.
  6. Jack Detsch - Pentagon reporter, has broken stories about various aid/hardware, as well as what the US military is doing/thinking
  7. Kyiv Independent - great news organization.
  8. Illia Ponomarenko - writes for Kyiv Independent, does a lot of investigative stuff inside of Ukraine, and long posts from combat zones.  Also calls out a lot of bullshit when he sees it.
  9. Ukraine Weapons Tracker - OSINT, tracking stuff from both sides
  10. Oryx - OSINT, tracking military hardware losses for both sides, as well as military aid given to Ukraine
  11. @KilledInUkraine - OSINT, grim, but they document Russian officers killed in Ukraine using Russian social media and/or photo/identification of Russian officers in the field. It's one thing when you hear about a Russian officer being killed, and another when you realize 170+ Captains or 50+ Lt. Colonels have been killed.
  12. Nathan Ruser - another OSINT type, lots of geolocation and mapping stuff, does a lot of solid commentary down in the weeds and up at 35,000 feet
  13. Max Seddon - Moscow bureau chief for Financial Times, 
  14. @TheStudyofWar - Institute for the Study of War (great website: https://www.understandingwar.org) - they put out a lot of the highly detailed maps everybody is using.
  15. Nolan Peterson - writes for Coffee Or Die, Ukraine-based war reporter (since around 2014)
  16. @ChristopherJM - journalist, has covered Ukraine/East Europe for over a decade, Ukraine-based
  17. Polina Ivanova - another Financial Times reporter specializing in Ukraine/Russia, she covers a lot of the economic and geopolitical fallout, and does investigate stuff (like Russia stealing Ukraine's grain, etc.)
  18. Henry Foy - yet another Financial Times reporter covering Ukraine/Russia/etc.
  19. War on the Rocks - great site (https://warontherocks.com) last year, predicted Russia's supply problems if they invade Ukraine, lots of deep dives on military topics
  20. Jomini of the West - writes on war issues, Russian history, etc.
  21. Kevin Rothrock - Writes on Russia, Ukraine War, etc., part of Meduza, that worked to get information into Russia under the censors
  22. @PhillipsPOBrien - Professor at University of St Andrews, Scotland, does a lot of long-form writing about these topics, and a good twitter follow
  23. Michael MacKay - Another writer, long form commentary about Ukraine/Russia
  24. LiveUAMap - Maps and info about Ukraine 
  25. Amelia Smith - she covers the aerial side of things, including NATO flights around Ukraine

Yeah, 3-4 Financial Times reporters, but they are covering the shit out of this war, and they do a helluva lot of well-sourced deep dives into the economic issues.

This ought to be stickied with 956' addenda.

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