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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

 

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

There's not a lot of noise in this data set ....R2= 0.999(!) since March 1 ... but it is.also not pristine....

It's so unnoisy that I'm skeptical the numbers are not actual positive reports.  They look modeled with a degree of variablilty added just to look real.  But maybe pandemics are actually just this predictable. /noconspiracy

See above.  I'm starting to believe journos or medical authorirites are giving estimates and not actuals.

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13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

maybe because they are equally inaccurate, for basically the same reasons

 

12 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

They are both under reporting, but for similar reasons.  Italy and the US went with the "test only if they meet specific critera" route so even though we know there are more cases out there, they are showing a similar track for symptomatic cases.  

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

look at the first chart. Our 3/11 is larger than their 3/6. And you know out 3/16 is greater than our 3/11 so we’re ahead of their testing at the dates that keep getting lined up in the charts

Huh? The chart lines up the US 11 days after Italy, not 5. I'm looking at the same chart and it does not look like even with an 11-day instead of 5-day difference that we are ahead in testing.

Here they are offset by 11 days.

image.png.ae8a37cba28117736e1a23e8674b1b37.png

We are not way ahead or even ahead of them if you line up the dates from the other chart.

Here's an attempt to show the 2,000 line on the Italy chart to make it easier to compare:

image.png.38d0501bba377ea7b6386c0d31f1cea2.png

Edited by Huckleberry

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

Critical mass seems to start around 100 cases for every country that I've looked at.  When you cross that threshold is a better indicator than when the first case was.  Testing methods don't appear to matter at all (which I agree makes 0 sense).

Edited by JBJ

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25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

Because you’re not seeing the actual spread of the virus in those numbers. You’re seeing testing being scaled up and people developing severe symptoms pushing them to hospitals and then being confirmed as positive. 

You know the virus is spreading. You don’t believe the total numbers reported are reflective of actual spread. You can still see the spread of the virus by looking at the numbers being reported and understanding that those numbers are a small subset of total infections. 

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8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

You're just seeing a trend line, the raw number comparison is meaningless. The chart demonstrates that the growth curve of both Italy and US confirmed cases (by their own separate criteria of when to test and what counts as confirmed) is the same (exponential). 

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30 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I personally know that Mclennan County has one case though I haven't seen it reported yet.

Yep.  From what I hear, it's a fairly prominent local bank executive.  I also personally know at least 20 people that just got back from the Colorado ski areas that are suggesting 14 day self quarantines for those returning from those areas.  They are pretty influential people around town.  Local business community could get interesting pretty quick.   

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The important question to me is why don't we have a catchy marketing nickname and logo for this thing yet? I submit "The Snaky Sneezies" and their mascot:

89775081_10219628329353266_2660453371940438016_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=I6N0TgLrzt0AX-RqQY9&_nc_ht=scontent.fiad1-1.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=084c77777c1035208c4c0764aac57498&oe=5E98783B

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Huh? The chart lines up the US 11 days after Italy, not 5. I'm looking at the same chart and it does not look like even with an 11-day instead of 5-day difference that we are ahead in testing.

Here they are offset by 11 days.

image.png.ae8a37cba28117736e1a23e8674b1b37.png

We are not way ahead or even ahead of them if you line up the dates from the other chart.

Here's an attempt to show the 2,000 line on the Italy chart to make it easier to compare:

image.png.38d0501bba377ea7b6386c0d31f1cea2.png

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

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1 minute ago, JBJ said:

Critical mass seems to start around 100 cases for every country that I've looked at.  When you cross that threshold is a better indicator than when the first case was.  Testing methods don't appear to matter at all.

I think it's more that 100 cases is when the signal is noticeable enough to draw a trend from. Exponential growth patterns mean that you double the number of cases every so often. Considering the US confirmed cases, that's been every roughly 3 to 4 days. So a couple of weeks ago, those countries would only have 5-10 cases. By the time the numbers are moving fast and getting large enough to get people to actually take it seriously, it's too widespread to effectively contain it. At that point, you have to bunker down and hope you can flatten the curve, or at least make it closer to linear growth

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Just a thought...   I see that we have failed at testing and some are saying that we are at the point that tests don't matter.

If test were widely available

patients tested and confirmed for C-19 could self quarantine for  x number of days and have a test to confirm recovery...  Those patients could then return to work / restaurants etc.

I would think this would have blunted some of the coming economic impact.  Currently you may suspect you've had C-19 but you'll never know and therefore act accordingly (social distancing etc..)

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

You do see that 3/12 - 3/16 is missing on counts because the CDC isn’t accumulating totals right?

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

Exactly, I think we all agree that the USA vs. Italy chart is coincidental as much as anything. Our per capita testing has been much lower, our population distribution is vastly different, etc. What it is useful in showing the general public, however, is that the growth in confirmed cases is exponential in both countries. As another poster mentioned above, human beings don't instinctively understand exponential growth. Charts that help them understand the reality of how fast this thing spreads if no countermeasures are taken are a good thing.

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19 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The pandemic response team we had in place within the CDC was disbanded in 2018 because "we never use them, and we can hire them back when we need them". Our capacity and ability to respond to pandemic-level infection has quantitatively decreased since swine flu.

A risk of derailing the current thread, can you please stop trying to make this about politics please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

Spoiler

It has been alleged by multiple officials of the Obama administration, including in The Post, that the president and his then-national security adviser, John Bolton, “dissolved the office” at the White House in charge of pandemic preparedness. Because I led the very directorate assigned that mission, the counterproliferation and biodefense office, for a year and then handed it off to another official who still holds the post, I know the charge is specious.

Now, I’m not naive. This is Washington. It’s an election year. Officials out of power want back into power after November. But the middle of a worldwide health emergency is not the time to be making tendentious accusations.

When I joined the National Security Council staff in 2018, I inherited a strong and skilled staff in the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate. This team of national experts together drafted the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018 and an accompanying national security presidential memorandum to implement it; an executive order to modernize influenza vaccines; and coordinated the United States’ response to the Ebola epidemic in Congo, which was ultimately defeated in 2020.

It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, congressional oversight committees and members of the Obama administration itself all agreed the NSC was too large and too operationally focused (a departure from its traditional role coordinating executive branch activity). As The Post reported in 2015, from the Clinton administration to the Obama administration’s second term, the NSC’s staff “had quadrupled in size, to nearly 400 people.” That is why Trump began streamlining the NSC staff in 2017.

One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.

The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But it has left the biodefense staff unaffected — perhaps a recognition of the importance of that mission to the president, who, after all, in 2018 issued a presidential memorandum to finally create real accountability in the federal government’s expansive biodefense system.

The NSC is really the only place in government where there is a staff that ensures the commander in chief gets all the options he needs to make a decision, and then makes sure that decision is actually implemented. I worry that further reductions at the NSC could impair its capabilities, but the current staffing level is fully up to the job.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

human beings don't instinctively understand exponential growth

Human beings can't do 10% tax in their heads let alone understand exponential growth.

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Yeah because everyone knows that the first 84 tests always come back negative!

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  From what I hear, it's a fairly prominent local bank executive.  I also personally know at least 20 people that just got back from the Colorado ski areas that are suggesting 14 day self quarantines for those returning from those areas.  They are pretty influential people around town.  Local business community could get interesting pretty quick.   

You know which ski resort? It appears most indications suggest Aspen or Vail.

Edited by MoJames

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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Human beings can't do 10% tax in their heads let alone understand exponential growth.

If every day you doubled the number of people that don't understand exponential growth, in a month there'd be hundreds.

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Exactly, I think we all agree that the USA vs. Italy chart is coincidental as much as anything. Our per capita testing has been much lower, our population distribution is vastly different, etc. What it is useful in showing the general public, however, is that the growth in confirmed cases is exponential in both countries. As another poster mentioned above, human beings don't instinctively understand exponential growth. Charts that help them understand the reality of how fast this thing spreads if no countermeasures are taken are a good thing.

Read the twitter comments when one of those charts is posted and tell me how educated everyone is getting. The ones who didn’t understand exponential growth now think everyone is going to die and create panic. That is not better. Maybe not worse, but certainly not better. Stupid will always be stupid 

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2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

A risk of derailing the current thread, can you please stop trying to make this about politics please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

  Reveal hidden contents

It has been alleged by multiple officials of the Obama administration, including in The Post, that the president and his then-national security adviser, John Bolton, “dissolved the office” at the White House in charge of pandemic preparedness. Because I led the very directorate assigned that mission, the counterproliferation and biodefense office, for a year and then handed it off to another official who still holds the post, I know the charge is specious.

Now, I’m not naive. This is Washington. It’s an election year. Officials out of power want back into power after November. But the middle of a worldwide health emergency is not the time to be making tendentious accusations.

When I joined the National Security Council staff in 2018, I inherited a strong and skilled staff in the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate. This team of national experts together drafted the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018 and an accompanying national security presidential memorandum to implement it; an executive order to modernize influenza vaccines; and coordinated the United States’ response to the Ebola epidemic in Congo, which was ultimately defeated in 2020.

It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, congressional oversight committees and members of the Obama administration itself all agreed the NSC was too large and too operationally focused (a departure from its traditional role coordinating executive branch activity). As The Post reported in 2015, from the Clinton administration to the Obama administration’s second term, the NSC’s staff “had quadrupled in size, to nearly 400 people.” That is why Trump began streamlining the NSC staff in 2017.

One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.

The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But it has left the biodefense staff unaffected — perhaps a recognition of the importance of that mission to the president, who, after all, in 2018 issued a presidential memorandum to finally create real accountability in the federal government’s expansive biodefense system.

The NSC is really the only place in government where there is a staff that ensures the commander in chief gets all the options he needs to make a decision, and then makes sure that decision is actually implemented. I worry that further reductions at the NSC could impair its capabilities, but the current staffing level is fully up to the job.

 

 

Sorry but public health experts at the time cried out that disbanding the pandemic response team made us less prepared. There were reports from health groups and lawmakers asking that the team be reinstated. Current top public health officials have said that the initial and ongoing response to COVID19 would be better coordinated if that team was still in place.

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Just now, Not a cat said:

If every day you doubled the number of people that don't understand exponential growth, in a month there'd be hundreds.

Comedy What GIF by CBC

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3 minutes ago, MoJames said:

You know which ski resort? It appears most indications suggest Aspen or Vail.

Ding Ding Ding Ding 

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2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Read the twitter comments when one of those charts is posted and tell me how educated everyone is getting. The ones who didn’t understand exponential growth now think everyone is going to die and create panic. That is not better. Maybe not worse, but certainly not better. Stupid will always be stupid 

You should stop caring about Twitter comments. I mean it's pretty obvious at this point that you're the yin to GreenspointTexas's yang. You both are being silly and going overboard to one direction because it makes you feel better for whatever reason. You have made multiple posts misreading dates and numbers in charts and misrepresenting reality, just like he has.

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Florida closing all bars @5pm on Saint Paddy's day....  I'm sure this will go smoothly...  oh so smooth

Quote

Additionally, starting at 5 p.m. Tuesday, all bars and nightclubs will be closed for the next 30 days, DeSantis said. That will be enforced by Florida’s Department of Business and Professional Regulation, but the governor’s office did not provide immediate details of that enforcement.

 

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5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Human beings can't do 10% tax in their heads let alone understand exponential growth.

its hilarious when I do simple 2 and 3 digit math in my head, not because I want to impress someone because it is just quicker, and people act like it is some magic trick.

15% tip might as well be vector calculus for some.

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1 minute ago, Enchubben said:

A risk of derailing the current thread, can you please stop trying to make this about politics please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

  Reveal hidden contents

It has been alleged by multiple officials of the Obama administration, including in The Post, that the president and his then-national security adviser, John Bolton, “dissolved the office” at the White House in charge of pandemic preparedness. Because I led the very directorate assigned that mission, the counterproliferation and biodefense office, for a year and then handed it off to another official who still holds the post, I know the charge is specious.

Now, I’m not naive. This is Washington. It’s an election year. Officials out of power want back into power after November. But the middle of a worldwide health emergency is not the time to be making tendentious accusations.

When I joined the National Security Council staff in 2018, I inherited a strong and skilled staff in the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate. This team of national experts together drafted the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018 and an accompanying national security presidential memorandum to implement it; an executive order to modernize influenza vaccines; and coordinated the United States’ response to the Ebola epidemic in Congo, which was ultimately defeated in 2020.

It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, congressional oversight committees and members of the Obama administration itself all agreed the NSC was too large and too operationally focused (a departure from its traditional role coordinating executive branch activity). As The Post reported in 2015, from the Clinton administration to the Obama administration’s second term, the NSC’s staff “had quadrupled in size, to nearly 400 people.” That is why Trump began streamlining the NSC staff in 2017.

One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.

The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But it has left the biodefense staff unaffected — perhaps a recognition of the importance of that mission to the president, who, after all, in 2018 issued a presidential memorandum to finally create real accountability in the federal government’s expansive biodefense system.

The NSC is really the only place in government where there is a staff that ensures the commander in chief gets all the options he needs to make a decision, and then makes sure that decision is actually implemented. I worry that further reductions at the NSC could impair its capabilities, but the current staffing level is fully up to the job.

 

 

Not about politics. And I too can post links to articles from people who ran the office, but I'll refrain from making a big deal about it. I'm saying that our capacity to track and collect data on the spread of diseases is materially and measurably diminished from the last time we had a public health scare (Ebola), and we are paying for those decisions today.

It's relevant to having a realistic conversation on how fast we'll be able to create a vaccine today. It's relevant to considering how far we want to go with social distancing from our families and loved ones today.

It's not about politics. It's about having reasonable fucking expectations for how this thing is gonna go.

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3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

How the fuck was this not approved and done weeks ago? This is the shit that infuriated me CR style. This is obvious, basic shit. 

Why does it need to be "approved" though? Can't the hospitals order them on their own? 

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

its hilarious when I do simple 2 and 3 digit math in my head, not because I want to impress someone because it is just quicker, and people act like it is some magic trick.

15% tip might as well be vector calculus for some.

Is it nice back in the year 2000?

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7 minutes ago, Loco said:

Florida closing all bars @5pm on Saint Paddy's day....  I'm sure this will go smoothly...  oh so smooth

 

I figure it would go over harder in places like New York City and Chicago, no?

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10 minutes ago, FWD said:

Sorry but public health experts at the time cried out that disbanding the pandemic response team made us less prepared. There were reports from health groups and lawmakers asking that the team be reinstated. Current top public health officials have said that the initial and ongoing response to COVID19 would be better coordinated if that team was still in place.

yes and per the person quoted in the article, Obama admin and others said it was to big.  without real details no one really knows. It was reorg'd and some were let go I'm sure.

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4 minutes ago, Viper said:

Why does it need to be "approved" though? Can't the hospitals order them on their own? 

Sure, they could I guess. But a government  order of thousands and a promise of funds seems like a quicker, louder statement of the import of ramping up production. And it should have been obvious. 

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27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  From what I hear, it's a fairly prominent local bank executive.  I also personally know at least 20 people that just got back from the Colorado ski areas that are suggesting 14 day self quarantines for those returning from those areas.  They are pretty influential people around town.  Local business community could get interesting pretty quick.   

Pretty much if you skied last weekend, you need to quarantine. Also, the ski season is over as Vail and Loveland announced that they are closed for the season. High country is really going to be hurting both from a hospital perspective where they don’t have the resources and financially from all the business at the end of season dissipating. 

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3 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

I figure it would go over harder in places like New York City and Chicago, no?

I'll put day drunk Floridiots up against anyone...  name your fighter

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12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

You should stop caring about Twitter comments. I mean it's pretty obvious at this point that you're the yin to GreenspointTexas's yang. You both are being silly and going overboard to one direction because it makes you feel better for whatever reason. You have made multiple posts misreading dates and numbers in charts and misrepresenting reality, just like he has.

I didn’t say I care but claiming that the chart is education the idiot masses is ridiculous. 
I’m not going to get into a pissing match with our over how you’re choosing to line up the charts, but we did equal to more testing than they did on 3/11 or 3/12 than the comparative 3/6. 
Are you telling me you really think we did fewer tests on 3/16 than they did on 3/6? I know you don’t. We’re ahead of Italy on testing -10 or -11 days. 

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The most interesting thing for me today, is despite the amount of work being done by the community to social distance, I'm still having several patient's show up for non-essential visits (in my opinion) over the age of 60. It's a bit insulting to be honest. I'm doing everything I can to keep my 4 and 7 year old at home and happy so not to spread the virus if it is in fact present in the community. Yet the exact people I'm trying to protect are showing up to the hospital for a visit on an ailment that really has little to no acuity. Frustrating.

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11 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

A risk of derailing the current thread, can you please stop trying to make this about politics please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

  Hide contents

It has been alleged by multiple officials of the Obama administration, including in The Post, that the president and his then-national security adviser, John Bolton, “dissolved the office” at the White House in charge of pandemic preparedness. Because I led the very directorate assigned that mission, the counterproliferation and biodefense office, for a year and then handed it off to another official who still holds the post, I know the charge is specious.

Now, I’m not naive. This is Washington. It’s an election year. Officials out of power want back into power after November. But the middle of a worldwide health emergency is not the time to be making tendentious accusations.

When I joined the National Security Council staff in 2018, I inherited a strong and skilled staff in the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate. This team of national experts together drafted the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018 and an accompanying national security presidential memorandum to implement it; an executive order to modernize influenza vaccines; and coordinated the United States’ response to the Ebola epidemic in Congo, which was ultimately defeated in 2020.

It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, congressional oversight committees and members of the Obama administration itself all agreed the NSC was too large and too operationally focused (a departure from its traditional role coordinating executive branch activity). As The Post reported in 2015, from the Clinton administration to the Obama administration’s second term, the NSC’s staff “had quadrupled in size, to nearly 400 people.” That is why Trump began streamlining the NSC staff in 2017.

One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.

The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But it has left the biodefense staff unaffected — perhaps a recognition of the importance of that mission to the president, who, after all, in 2018 issued a presidential memorandum to finally create real accountability in the federal government’s expansive biodefense system.

The NSC is really the only place in government where there is a staff that ensures the commander in chief gets all the options he needs to make a decision, and then makes sure that decision is actually implemented. I worry that further reductions at the NSC could impair its capabilities, but the current staffing level is fully up to the job.

 

 

So outside of his semantic argument, the new office should be impactful during this pandemic, right?  

Quote

Much of the intelligence community’s tasking on the issue of global health and pandemics comes from the National Security Council, which will ask the agencies questions it needs answered. That has led former officials to express concern about the departure of national security staffers with relevant expertise—including Adm. Tim Ziemer, the NSC’s former senior director for global health security and biodefense who left in 2018 and is now a senior official at USAID.

The staff shakeups “have had a profound ripple effect, the consequences of which we are seeing play out now, I think,” said Ned Price, who served in the CIA and on the National Security Council under President Obama during the Ebola outbreak.

The NSC’s director for medical and biodefense preparedness, Dr. Luciana Borio, left in 2018, as did Bossert, whose job included coordinating a response to global pandemics. Part of Bossert’s role was later given to Hillary Carter, the former global health security director who was moved into Bossert’s old office and is now senior adviser to Homeland Security and Resilience Adviser Julia Nesheiwat.

Additionally, the NSC’s Global Health Security directorate, initiated under Obama “to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats,” was folded into the counter-proliferation and biodefense directorate by former national security adviser John Bolton, according to an NSC spokesman and a former U.S. government official. The bureaucratic change caught some in the White House by surprise at the time, according to a former Trump White House official.

Asked why Bolton made the move, the former official said he likely did not view global health as a national security concern and viewed it more as a Department of Health and Human Services responsibility.

“His view of national security is kind of a one-trick pony and is military-to-military confrontations,” the former official said of Bolton.

Price said the global health security directorate was valuable because it “focused exclusively on public health threats abroad that had the potential to affect us at home. Now there are directorates that can pick up the slack, but you don’t have the same level of expertise of people who have lived through Ebola, H1N1, and other disease responses.”

Current and former officials maintain that the structural change has not resulted in a loss of expertise. A spokesman for the NSC said that officials responding to the pandemic within that unit have “extensive experience and expertise in virology, infectious disease epidemiology, global health security, public health, and emergency response,” and a former official said that the WMD directorate, which absorbed the global health security office, “had the same people, the same expertise, with no loss of efficiency as our response to the Ebola virus in Congo showed.”

But other current and former officials have lamented the changes. Fauci, asked about the disbanding of the global health security directorate during a hearing on Capitol Hill Wednesday, responded cautiously.

“I wouldn’t characterize it as a mistake, I would say we worked very well with that office,” Fauci said. “It would be nice if that office was still there.”

Quote

Of the roughly 115 policy specialists at the NSC, there are currently just two people who specialize in pandemics, although both have doctorates, with at least one in virology. Both are housed within the WMD directorate.

One official said that the NSC’s senior director for counter-proliferation and biodefense, Anthony Ruggiero, led the initial response and relied heavily on the expertise of biodefense experts and epidemiologists. Deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, formerly the council’s senior director for East Asia policy, has since taken charge under O’Brien.

But neither Ruggiero, a nuclear arms specialist, or Pottinger, a former journalist turned soldier, has experience responding to a global disease outbreak.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/america-national-security-viral-threat-126574

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Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

sydney 33 south

dallas 33 north

Yeah we were looking at spending a "summer" in oz/nz    Only it's winter june/july/august (cold and rainy).   They are cruising into winter so we will see how it goes. 

 

Broward has been hot this spring, it's not stopping the spread here.  #1 in Florida baby!

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On a brighter note, APD is being heroic with traffic enforcement.  Very few cars on the road = easy picking for speeding tickets

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7 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

sydney 33 south

dallas 33 north

I get it.  It was a joke that no one really knows yet.

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2 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

On a brighter note, APD is being heroic with traffic enforcement.  Very few cars on the road = easy picking for speeding tickets

might be the best post on the thread.  good point.

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3 hours ago, NoName said:

This individual said the PM “joked” that the enterprise to build more life-saving ventilators could be known as “Operation Last Gasp.”

That's pretty good.

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Can anyone find a response from O'Brien to this?  

https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/19/senators-call-on-trump-administration-to-immediately-fill-global-health-security-position/

Quote

Dear Mr. O’Brien:

As the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak that began in December in Wuhan, China continues to accelerate, we strongly urge you to appoint a qualified, dedicated, senior global health security expert to coordinate the United States’ global health security work, including the response to and containment of this and other global health emergencies. This action is long overdue. According to reports, in May 2018, “the head of global health security on the White House’s National Security Council left the Trump Administration.”  Almost two years later, this position on the National Security Council (NSC) remains vacant. We urge immediate action, as well as your response to questions regarding the NSC’s readiness.

In May 2018, some of us wrote to then-National Security Advisor John Bolton regarding our concerns about this vacancy, noting “[t]he threat of a pandemic is serious, and it’s important families know we have a vigilant and experienced team in place and working to protect us against such public health threats.”  We asked a series of questions about how the NSC would handle global health security threats. But we received no answers to our questions.

Quote

The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and on January 31, 2020, HHS Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency in the United States.  President Trump has also established the President’s Coronavirus Task Force, of which you are a member.  But you are not a public health expert, and it is not clear if the NSC has such an expert in position to effectively advise or coordinate its global public health work on the Task Force and in other areas. Families concerned about the novel coronavirus threat need to know the NSC has a dedicated, senior official with appropriate expertise and authority to address the domestic and global health threats from the virus. It is of paramount importance that this person approaches this role through a public health lens. 

 

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13 minutes ago, MoJames said:

The most interesting thing for me today, is despite the amount of work being done by the community to social distance, I'm still having several patient's show up for non-essential visits (in my opinion) over the age of 60. It's a bit insulting to be honest. I'm doing everything I can to keep my 4 and 7 year old at home and happy so not to spread the virus if it is in fact present in the community. Yet the exact people I'm trying to protect are showing up to the hospital for a visit on an ailment that really has little to no acuity. Frustrating.

Now imagine if you were getting paid. Seriously, though, are you getting paid per patient visit?

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