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Texas Recruiting Notes 2020


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Bobby Burton: Thursday

BobbyBurton 41475 posts6 hours agoVIP

In case you can't tell, there's a big recruiting weekend coming up. The Horns are hosting a load of recruits, from the classes of 2020 and 2021. I don't know if Texas will come away with any commitments from the weekend, but I think it's interesting just how wide a net the staff is hoping to cast. Texas is not unnecessarily narrowing its recruiting options too early, which is something that used to drive me nuts about Mack Brown. Brown wanted to be all but done with recruiting by summer.

That's not the way for the best results. For every Zach Evans who has already proven what type of talent he is, there are 10 others who are really just getting started on their football path. Evaluating more players for a longer period of time gives you a better sense of their trajectory toward success. So don't merely look for bottom-line results in the way of commitments this weekend. Instead, there is a larger strategy at work here and realize that that is what's best for the Horns long-term.

**

Speaking of trajectory... I think most readers are familiar with the idea of evaluating recruits by floor-and-ceiling terms. The floor would the lowest reasonable expectation of a recruit's future success, while the ceiling would be his highest. I'd like to take that same theory and apply it instead to the Texas football team and their expected win-loss record next season. The reason? I think Texas fans may be overly optimistic about next season.

But before I rain on any parade, I want to say this: I think Texas, as a program, is in better shape today than they've been at any time since 2009. Still, here is the reality (at least as I see it). Texas must replace its starting front six on defense and both starting corners. That alone is cause for concern. Even if the talent waiting in the wings is superb, it remains untested and relatively inexperienced.

Furthermore, eight of Texas' ten wins in 2018 came by one score or less. That means a bounce or two of the ball the other way and instead of 10 wins, Texas is looking at an eight-win campaign. Of course, there is the other side of the proverbial coin. Three of Texas' four losses (Maryland, West Virginia and Oklahoma State) also came by less than one score. And Texas should be an overall deeper team this year, which should mean a better performance in fourth quarters. And then there's the fact that Sam Ehlinger is the quarterback, something that was an uncertainty heading into last season. He'll also have one more year of experience under his belt.

**

Before I give my final floor-to-ceiling win expectation for the Horns, I'd like to give one for another team that pretty much any college football fan is familiar with. So let's use Alabama as an example. Like Texas, they have their starting quarterback returning, they must replace almost all of their defensive front, and a couple of their DBs. But they also won more games than the Horns a year ago. For the floor, I'd bet that winning anything fewer than 10 games for the Crimson Tide would be a shock. So let's say 10 wins is their "floor".

The ceiling? Well, that's pretty easy. No one is going to be amazed if the Tide is playing for the BCS title 11 months from now. So the Bama floor-to-ceiling win rate is 10-14 games (or 15 I guess if that's what it takes to win it all).

**

For Texas, I have a hard time seeing the Horns win fewer than eight games in 2019. And that would even include an injury to Sam Ehlinger. Texas is getting deeper and more skilled than many of its Big 12 opponents. That's a fact. Of course, any team can win on any given Saturday, too. As for the ceiling, I think it's premature for the Horns to expect to make the BCS playoffs this season. It's not out of the realm of possibility, I just don't think it's truly a reasonable expectation.

For me, I could see Texas winning 12 games in 2019, winning the Big 12 and winning a bowl game, but perhaps not winning enough to make the BCS. Such a season would be yet another steady climb up the hill to where Texas wants to eventually be, which is a consistent factor in the national discussion, where a "down" year is still 10 wins. So I'm 8-12 in my floor-to-ceiling pick for the Horns. Where do you come out and why?

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15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So I’m gathering I have laughably small hands. 8” across and 7” long at 6’2. 

Not surprising I guess considering I wear a 6 3/4 ball cap. 

By any chance did you start out life as a Japanese woman?

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13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’d be a damn good president.

and I’ll have my day in the sun if the thread ever gets around to hairlines. 

 

8 minutes ago, mop said:

By any chance did you start out life as a Japanese woman?

Everyone knows Japanese women make the worst presidents.

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I think they are going to push for some commitments this weekend.

 

They realized A&M building faux momentum last year early made an impact. They are going to move a little faster on a few key guys.

 

Edit: and black lab should wipe out the people in this thread talking about hand size.

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15 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

They realized A&M building faux momentum last year early made an impact. They are going to move a little faster on a few key guys.

 

Edit: and black lab should wipe out the people in this thread talking about hand size.

The thread got a little derailed, but it's really not off topic. The measurements and aspects of it matter towards projecting ability at the QB spot. Us developing a frame of reference for it got a little out of hand, if you will, but it's also a random Thursday in the offseason a week after signing day.

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Just now, closetojumping said:

The thread got a little derailed, but it's really not off topic. The measurements and aspects of it matter towards projecting ability at the QB spot. Us developing a frame of reference for it got a little out of hand, if you will, but it's also a random Thursday in the offseason a week after signing day.

Almost on topic shitposting is the proven way to 1000 pages.

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40 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Bobby Burton: Thursday

 

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For me, I could see Texas winning 12 games in 2019, winning the Big 12 and winning a bowl game, but perhaps not winning enough to make the BCS. Such a season would be yet another steady climb up the hill to where Texas wants to eventually be, which is a consistent factor in the national discussion, where a "down" year is still 10 wins. So I'm 8-12 in my floor-to-ceiling pick for the Horns. Where do you come out and why?

 

Someone should tell Bobby it isn't 2013. 

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Evans should really consider breaking the tradition of RB’s announcing late. If he shocked the world by committing now, he would generate tremendous OL and other recruiting momentum.

He would basically strengthen his Heisman run by helping secure the best linemen. Those guys will want to block for a Heisman candidate. They block for him, they get accolades too.

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5 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

2014 Combine Database

Have you no respect for the 2020 recruiting hand size thread? How dare you pass along fake news here. 

those combine hand measurements are thumb-to-pinky. measuring from wrist to tip of middle finger his hands are bigger than anyone in the league not named deforest buckner.  

if you ever accuse me of posting fake news again I’ll destroy you. 

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4 hours ago, satyanash said:

Bobby Burton: Thursday

 

  Hide contents

........

The ceiling? Well, that's pretty easy. No one is going to be amazed if the Tide is playing for the BCS title 11 months from now. So the Bama floor-to-ceiling win rate is 10-14 games (or 15 I guess if that's what it takes to win it all).

**

For Texas, I have a hard time seeing the Horns win fewer than eight games in 2019. And that would even include an injury to Sam Ehlinger. Texas is getting deeper and more skilled than many of its Big 12 opponents. That's a fact. Of course, any team can win on any given Saturday, too. As for the ceiling, I think it's premature for the Horns to expect to make the BCS playoffs this season. It's not out of the realm of possibility, I just don't think it's truly a reasonable expectation.

For me, I could see Texas winning 12 games in 2019, winning the Big 12 and winning a bowl game, but perhaps not winning enough to make the BCS. Such a season would be yet another steady climb up the hill to where Texas wants to eventually be, which is a consistent factor in the national discussion, where a "down" year is still 10 wins. So I'm 8-12 in my floor-to-ceiling pick for the Horns. Where do you come out and why?

 

Am I taking crazy pills? I would be entirely amazed if Alabama played for the BCS championship next year.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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