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2018 - Elections and Trends


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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Hate to be morbid but roughly 2.6M people die every year in the US.  Assuming that Trump's and the GOP's voters trend older, that would easily be 3M fewer Republican voters than there were 2 years ago.

Repubs are so lucky millenials don’t vote or they’d struggle to win in a lot more places. 

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Repubs are so lucky millenials don’t vote or they’d struggle to win in a lot more places. 

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

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Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

This. They know they've already lost the culture war bigly. They are on the precipice of becoming irrelevant to an entire generation of voters. They can only slow things down. They cannot stop progress. 

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6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I can’t wait til all this shit is over and done with in 4 weeks.

I just want trump to know how Obama felt after the 2010 election. He ridiculed obama repeatedly for not being able to get anything through congress with Republican majorities in both chambers and said he could do a much better job at it. Let’s see the “art of the deal” in action.

id like to see him get the opportunity to prove it.

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3 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

The key issue is that Republican financial interests DO NOT benefit the majority of millennials.  An entire generation (stereotypically) who does not own property while paying off tens of thousands of dollars in student debt will offer a rude awakening to the people who just assume everyone turns conservative as they get older because of finances.

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4 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

They also have kids and won't vote for the party actively working to gut public education.

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22 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Millennials aren't kids anymore.  They're into their late 30's in some cases.  They're going to start voting more and more and meanwhile, the core of the GOP will be literally dying off by the millions every year.  Ten years from now the GOP as we know it will cease to exist and they know that.  That's why they're frantically trying to vote stuff in.  They know there's a time clock.

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

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1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

But when millennials do start voting, they might be influenced and decide to vote for their financial/selfish interests and not vote for progressives anymore. This is the old argument of "if you are republican and young you have no heart, if you are democrat and old you have no money".

The opposite argument seems to be what people are banking on, that the root of the millennial political and values identity will be firm and solid and they will vote on philosophy (one formed when they were young), not pragmatics.

It’s a very small sample size, but I’m 31 ( a millennial) who never misses a chance to vote. Most of the people in my circle of friends hate republicans. I can’t believe republicans get away with so much shit. I’d never support those crooked assholes. They think gerrymandering and 85 year old billionaires spending obscene amounts of money to get them re-elected is ok (the democrats as a whole are always outspent in every election), but they complain about the media having a perceived “liberal bias” and they get mad at social media companies for “shadow banning” conservatives. You can’t complain about the last 2 if you don’t complain about the first 2. Hypocritical asshats.

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Just now, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

True. My premise was baked with the assumption that when millennials do start to turn out and vote, they will be indistinguishable from other generations in that they will be well into a career, own homes, have families, etc.

That assumption could be completely and unabashedly wrong for all I know and you could be spot on. I'm no Nate Silver, my dude.

Nobody knows how millennials will mature.  There's absolutely a chance you are correct, but millennials are going to be a really interesting study.  The debt and lack of home ownership are widely covered topics, but there are countless other topics that are pretty unprecedented.  Most millennials will eventually get on top of that loan and get around to buying that house, but what happens when their upward mobility is limited due to older generations staying in the workforce because of poor retirement planning?  I'm in my 30s and I'm already seeing the trickle down effect of old farts refusing to leave.  

Even if you discount the social views and tolerance of millennials (which is not something that should be easily discounted), there are going to be a ton of unprecedented developments that hit the millennials straight-on as time passes.  Assuming that this generation will behave similarly to previous ones is a belief based in hope, not facts.

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12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What issues are millennials going to become more conservative about?

It’s hard to be specific about individual issues. The natural tendency is for humans to become more risk averse as we get older, financial and otherwise. There’s another word for that. 

How that will be manifest by millennials will be fascinating given their somewhat mixed bag of values (see drugs, gay marriage vs gun laws, abortion) and their financial circumstances (debt laden). 

Long story short I guess I can’t give you an answer but I doubt one single generation’s ability to buck how we are all hard wired. 

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42 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What about people becoming more conservative as they age?  Feels like you’re discounting that. 

Do they get more conservative?  The vast majority of the users of socialized medicine, socialized income, and socialized housing are old people.  Perhaps you just mean they become more racist and sexist?

In reality, they just get more scared because their death is imminent and the world is going to keep on going without them.

Also, the idea of becoming more conservative as people age begins and ends with Boomers.  It wasn't evident in prior generations and it need not be evident in future generations.  I'd also imagine the demographic issue that Boomers face is that the "liberal" wing of the generation were disproportionately more likely to abuse drugs and have unsafe sex, while the "conservative" wing was more likely to settle down early, eat moderately, and have safe sex.  The "liberals" were far more likely to die off.  I think that difference was erased with Gen X and Millennials as the health (yoga, gym, organic, etc) boom was disproportionately picked up by "liberals."  Meanwhile, "conservatives" of these generations get married early, but mostly eat garbage and don't get their fatasses off the couch.

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think the boomers changed. I think the majority of the generation is where it has always been. 

There's a persistent myth that the boomers were liberal and became conservative, and it's not really true.  The Boomers, as a whole, have been significantly more conservative than either the Greatest Generation or the Silents, as well as Gen X and the Millenials to date.  It's why we are where we are in domestic politics:

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8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There's a persistent myth that the boomers were liberal and became conservative, and it's not really true.  The Boomers, as a whole, have been significantly more conservative than either the Greatest Generation or the Silents, as well as Gen X and the Millenials to date.  It's why we are where we are in domestic politics:

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I think we tend to mistake "loudness" for "total number."  That is, the Boomer represented the starkest dichotomy of any generation in memory: you had buzz-cut traditionalists (often on the wrong side of race and civil rights issues) versus free-love dope-smoking hippies.   So, on both ends, you had greater extremes.  And we really noticed the newer phenomenon: the dope-smoking hippies.

I know anecdotes are not statistics, but I'd say it's interesting watching my parents and my wife and me.  I grew up in a GOP household, as did my wife.  She was always more left than her parents, but still was pretty middle-of-the-road, voted for folks in both parties.  My mother -- who was always very anti-racism and feminist, has completely broken with the "conservative" movement.  My old man hasn't completely broken with it, but he's really uncomfortable.  They are both young Silent gen age.  And as for me, y'all know my journey.

I think it's interesting that neither my parents nor me became "more conservative" as we aged.  I don't know how much to extrapolate from that, but there you are.

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In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

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As an old man millenial (36) I can tell you that in general the homophobia, transphobia, and (more recently emphasized) racism from the gop is completely off-putting to people in this generation. The gop will drop that eventually, but it will be interesting to see if it's too late. 

 

Even the "conservative" millenials I know are turned off completely by the toxic social platform of Republicans.

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3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

Weird, I’m 32 and my friends are becoming more conservative. 

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20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

In my life experience as a 42 year old, practically every single friend has become more LIBERAL as they have gotten older.  Racial/gender/sexual orientation/class injustice is at the forefront of everyone's mind. These are all upper/upper middle class people born and raised in Houston with great jobs and plenty of income.  The majority of their Baby Boomer parents are still conservative, but others are willing to have a dialogue and weakening their conservative stance.

 

 

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

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1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

Yes, this is kind of where I was trying to go. No one "likes" the democrats, but Republicans are absolutely rejected

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16 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i'm 40. i'm a man, and i've found myself and my peer group not being MORE democrat, but more ANTI-republican. 

Same and it was very evident at a big dinner we traditionally have on Friday of TX/OU.

Not one positive thing said about Trump and his minions.  Lots of support for Beto, as well..

I’d be willing to bet everyone of them voted for Reagan twice.

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My circle of friends tends to follow this same trend as well with one caveat - I grew up in a very small town and my high school buddies who never left town are all hard core Trumpkins.  The ones who never left and the majority of my Aggie friends are the only people in my greater circle of friends who have remained conservative or become more conservative.

My baby boomer parents are Fox News viewers and have remained very conservative through my entire life.  Truth be told they are probably baffled at what my political views have become.

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8 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I think geography might play a role in all these anecdotes.

My anecdote is that in real life (at the mercy to my physical location obviously), all my friends are getting more conservative, but my online friends (you guys) are more liberal over time.

I think the phrasing of "more conservative" is a bit of a misnomer.  With the way the party has shifted over time, if you haven't become "more conservative" over time, then you've become a dirty Democrat.  I think it's mostly people who used to identify as Republican and still want to identify as Republican, so as a result they appear to have become "more conservative" when in reality they are just rooting for the same team.  I know a number of people like this.  I don't know a single person who used to be liberal and is now conservative.

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6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

My circle of friends tends to follow this same trend as well with one caveat - I grew up in a very small town and my high school buddies who never left town are all hard core Trumpkins.  The ones who never left and the majority of my Aggie friends are the only people in my greater circle of friends who have remained conservative or become more conservative.

My baby boomer parents are Fox News viewers and have remained very conservative through my entire life.  Truth be told they are probably baffled at what my political views have become.

This is me.  My small town friends are mostly conservatives.  Big surprise, I moved to the big city and most of my friends are liberal.  Somewheres v. Anywheres.

 

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7 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

They have Heller up 46-44

Still stuck in the mid-40s as an incumbent is such an awful place to be.

Also NV polls always underestimate the Democrats, because of Vegas.  Republicans always seem to lead in the polls. I mean, just ask Senator Angle, Senator Heck and Trump, who totally won NV, right?

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15 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I think the phrasing of "more conservative" is a bit of a misnomer.  With the way the party has shifted over time, if you haven't become "more conservative" over time, then you've become a dirty Democrat.  I think it's mostly people who used to identify as Republican and still want to identify as Republican, so as a result they appear to have become "more conservative" when in reality they are just rooting for the same team.  I know a number of people like this.  I don't know a single person who used to be liberal and is now conservative.

Correct. Conservative, ultimately just means you want to keep things relatively static (or return to like they use to be). Liberal, means you want things to change in some way from how they have traditionally been. Again, the journey to conservativism is relative, not absolute. I don't think people's absolute position changes all that much. I think their position relative to society as a whole changes a whole lot. That shouldn't be too surprising because you would expect each generation's beliefs to become more incorporated into society as the generation ages. What was liberal is now conservative. 

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