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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077618/no-evidence-asymptomatic-carriers-spread-coronavirus-chinese
 

I believe very strongly in this.  I see 30–40 patients a day over 3-4 facilities/hospitals a day for direct care.  I likely had this midFeb before precautions were wide spread.  It would have been spreading all over like I initially mentioned. Repeating with this article.  I know, ‘South China Morning Post‘?  Sorry.  

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23 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

The Empire State Building is actually in Manhattan, and if I'm not mistaken, I seem to remember that we have a Surly poster who lives in Manhattan.

Yeah, but did she say which part of the island?  She could be from Marble Hill for all you know

Edited by Lobo
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5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It does not, I'm fairly certain.  And agree with you that it sucks. 

That's kinda fucked up. As antibody testing expands, we will uncover more and more people who were exposed but never tested positive in the active phase. As that percentage grows, that could be a significant portion of the population that A) recovered and should be counted as such and B) no longer at risk and should be factored into the models being used. To ignore this data is absurd.

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1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:

That's kinda fucked up. As antibody testing expands, we will uncover more and more people who were exposed but never tested positive in the active phase. As that percentage grows, that could be a significant portion of the population that A) recovered and should be counted as such and B) no longer at risk and should be factored into the models being used. To ignore this data is absurd.

I'm hoping labs will be able to report this data at some point...because individual labs have it now - they just don't have somewhere to report it to. 

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13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Its amazing that NY/NJ is such an outlier hotzone for both cases and deaths.  the confirmed case/death rates are higher elsewhere but NY/NJ is crazy as an overall total.  You would think you would see something similar in Illinois/Chicago by now.

I wonder if Michigan's blow up would be traceable after this is over.

Haven't they been testing larger numbers for longer?   Death Rates may look higher in some other places because only the sickest people were (are) getting tested.   The confirmed case count is really just starting to jump in a lot of places as testing criteria is expanded.   I think it's more likely that NY/NJ did see a more rapid spread (hence higher deaths) but also have been testing more and are catching more mild cases than other locations.

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5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Haven't they been testing larger numbers for longer?   Death Rates may look higher in some other places because only the sickest people were (are) getting tested.   The confirmed case count is really just starting to jump in a lot of places as testing criteria is expanded.   I think it's more likely that NY/NJ did see a more rapid spread (hence higher deaths) but also have been testing more and are catching more mild cases than other locations.

They are testing more, and that partially explains the comparatively large number of cases.  But those two states account for more than half the deaths in the country.  CA has 184.  NY/NJ has 2300.

Its just a lot worse there than anywhere else and not because they are testing more.

Edited by Don Johnson
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2 hours ago, Somnio said:

March summary of Covid-19:

World

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 88,585

Deaths - 3,050 

CFR - 3.4%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 858,355

Deaths - 42,309

CFR - 4.9%

 

United States

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 75

Deaths - 1

CFR - 1.3%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 188,530

Deaths - 4,053

CFR - 2.1%

 

So if China’s true numbers were in these world totals they would be probably double?  

Edited by stork642
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Seems like the climate argument is not that valid. This is the equator so never gets cold. Never.... Reuter reporting. 

GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador/QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuadorean authorities said on Monday they would improve the collection of corpses, as delays related to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus has left families keeping their loved ones’ bodies in their homes for days in some cases.

Residents of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, have complained they have no way to dispose of relatives’ remains due to strict quarantine and curfew measures designed to prevent spread of the disease. Last week, authorities said they had removed 100 corpses from homes in Guayaquil.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ecuador/ecuador-struggles-to-collect-the-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-idUSKBN21I03Q

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12 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

You could try here: https://covidtracking.com/data

It is a multi-partner approach that has as much info as they can gather. They don't have info from some states.

 

interesting and thanks.  so approx 18% positive rate from test and about 14% of those hospitalize.  fatality is about 14% of hospitalizations.

I know the testing criteria means its not a random sample and the positive rate would be lower for a random sample but for talking purposes

test 100M(random sample/worst case), 18M positive, 2.5M hospitalize  = 350K fatalities

 

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55 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Cloak room trolls".  Do you actually think I wasn't included in that reference?

Back to your reading comprehension.

You and Greenspoint are pretty much the only ones giving oxygen to his always contrarian flame. He doesn't care about the argument he only cares about rustling jimmies(no pun intended). Put him on ignore and move on with life.

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18 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

That's kinda fucked up. As antibody testing expands, we will uncover more and more people who were exposed but never tested positive in the active phase. As that percentage grows, that could be a significant portion of the population that A) recovered and should be counted as such and B) no longer at risk and should be factored into the models being used. To ignore this data is absurd.

this is why I think the number that will eventually have had this is going to be close to 100M

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8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Seems like the climate argument is not that valid. This is the equator so never gets cold. Never.... Reuter reporting. 

GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador/QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuadorean authorities said on Monday they would improve the collection of corpses, as delays related to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus has left families keeping their loved ones’ bodies in their homes for days in some cases.

Residents of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, have complained they have no way to dispose of relatives’ remains due to strict quarantine and curfew measures designed to prevent spread of the disease. Last week, authorities said they had removed 100 corpses from homes in Guayaquil.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ecuador/ecuador-struggles-to-collect-the-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-idUSKBN21I03Q

all I can think of is Monty Python.

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Seems like the climate argument is not that valid. This is the equator so never gets cold. Never.... Reuter reporting. 
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador/QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuadorean authorities said on Monday they would improve the collection of corpses, as delays related to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus has left families keeping their loved ones’ bodies in their homes for days in some cases.
Residents of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, have complained they have no way to dispose of relatives’ remains due to strict quarantine and curfew measures designed to prevent spread of the disease. Last week, authorities said they had removed 100 corpses from homes in Guayaquil.
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ecuador/ecuador-struggles-to-collect-the-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-idUSKBN21I03Q
Ecuador shut down their airspace to whitey pretty quick. It was clearly already there.
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55 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 


Where are you getting that number? Johns Hopkins says just under 200K and Worldometer says just over.

 

I was being facetious..feds are saying 100K to 240K so I picked 240K to help him understand why we are particularly surl today

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7 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:
Seems like the climate argument is not that valid. This is the equator so never gets cold. Never.... Reuter reporting. 
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador/QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuadorean authorities said on Monday they would improve the collection of corpses, as delays related to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus has left families keeping their loved ones’ bodies in their homes for days in some cases.
Residents of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, have complained they have no way to dispose of relatives’ remains due to strict quarantine and curfew measures designed to prevent spread of the disease. Last week, authorities said they had removed 100 corpses from homes in Guayaquil.
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ecuador/ecuador-struggles-to-collect-the-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-idUSKBN21I03Q

Ecuador shut down their airspace to whitey pretty quick. It was clearly already there.

Yes. Have a business partner there and they all thought it was a joke. Have not heard from him in 10 days or so. 

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38 minutes ago, stork642 said:

So if China’s true numbers were in these world totals they would be probably double?  

At the this point I don't really trust anyone's case totals or deaths.

Everyone already knew China and Iran were lying, but after hearing Italy is not including nursing home deaths in their death totals I've lost faith we're getting accurate information from anywhere.

There's no telling how many deaths around the globe have occurred due to Covid-19 that aren't included in any of the data.

And of course the number of infected absolutely dwarfs the number of confirmed cases.

And before anyone says that's great because that means the CFR is actually sooper dooper low, remember the magic of exponential growth.  The vast majority of infected have only recently become so.

Hopefully the curve has been flattened, though.  Unfortunately, I still think April's data is going to make March look tame in comparison.

Edited by Somnio
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44 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

They are testing more, and that partially explains the comparatively large number of cases.  But those two states account for more than half the deaths in the country.  CA has 184.  NY/NJ has 2300.

Its just a lot worse there than anywhere else and not because they are testing more.

Got to be the subways, tight living spaces, elevators, and density.

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1 hour ago, Casual Encounter said:

Damn, my day is going better than most in here. I actually got some meat, fresh produce, AND toilet paper today. Now, if I could just find that oversized rectal thermometer I’ve been searching for.

Anything can be a rectal thermometer if you're brave enough.

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1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

Its amazing that NY/NJ is such an outlier hotzone for both cases and deaths.  the confirmed case/death rates are higher elsewhere but NY/NJ is crazy as an overall total.  You would think you would see something similar in Illinois/Chicago by now.

I wonder if Michigan's blow up would be traceable after this is over.

The MAFIA is using this as perfect cover to clear out the dead wood...

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