Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

42 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

 

A pint of rum raisin please...

Rum Raisin is weak.  Daiquiri Ice.  Mix with hand sanitizer and you've got a party.

[elguapo 4577]

4 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Link?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

[NoName 16265]

22 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas - that's hopeful that we can peak in the next two weeks:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 8%

Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 36%

Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 66%

kind of amazing how much this swings (still, this far into it) less than 24 hours after your post with #s

here is it today for Texas

• Probability that the peak has already passed: 19%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 60%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 85%

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

2 minutes ago, NoName said:

kind of amazing how much this swings (still, this far into it) less than 24 hours after your post with #s

here is it today for Texas

• Probability that the peak has already passed: 19%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 60%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 85%

Probably just a relic of all of these models using data as it comes (and as the data evolves based on CDC guidelines) and how we are still pretty close to the peak. By Wednesday, we’ll have a much better idea of where this first peak is. 

[Iceman 2621]

7 minutes ago, elguapo said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Nice try but no, that doesn’t support dahobbs’ contention.

[clapclapclap 9000]

10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 

But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

[aggie08 21292]

 

1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 

But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

Noticed that too. Pretty blatant misuse of the y-axis.

[mchookem 15878]

12 hours ago, Bevo said:

True and COVID-19 sux but None Suck more than OU.

 

how did i not know this masterpiece exists? 

[Dbeasy 14931]

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 
But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

That is ridiculous to not account for population.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8795]

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 
But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

I know where my stimulus check is going

[Loco 3752]

Suck it cancer!

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Need to look at this, but Facebook released a map of folks who claim they have the symptoms/covid.

https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com

Quote

About This Map

This map shows an estimated percentage of people with COVID-19 symptoms, not confirmed cases.

Facebook uses aggregated public data from a survey conducted by Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Research Center.

Quote

The survey from CMU Delphi Research Center asks people to self-report symptoms associated with COVID-19 or the flu that they or anyone in their household has experienced in the last 24 hours. Surveys like this have been used globally for public health research. Even with as few as several thousand responses, survey data like these have been successfully used to forecast the spread of the flu and other illnesses.

Who’s taking this survey

Facebook reaches large segments of the population allowing for a significant representation of age, gender and state of residence. Every day, a new sample of Facebook users over 18 years old within the United States are invited to participate in the survey

Quote

To help CMU measure results, Facebook shares a single statistic known as a weight value that doesn’t identify a person but helps correct for any sample bias, adjusting for who responds to survey invitations. Making adjustments using weights ensures that the sample more accurately reflects the characteristics of the population represented in the data. The weight for a survey respondent in the sample can be thought of as the number of people in the population that they represent based on their age, gender and state of residence.

Using the data

The estimates can be helpful for policymakers and health researchers to forecast potential COVID-19 outbreaks. These estimates don’t represent confirmed COVID-19 cases and shouldn’t be used for diagnostic or treatment purposes, or guidance on personal or business travel. Facebook’s research partners are committed to only using survey results to study and help contain COVID-19.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[bschoolprof 6227]

16 minutes ago, NoName said:

kind of amazing how much this swings (still, this far into it) less than 24 hours after your post with #s

here is it today for Texas

• Probability that the peak has already passed: 19%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 60%
• Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 85%

That's because, in my non-expert view, the IHME is a terrible model design.  The math is fancy and complicated, but the idea is not.  They are simply estimating a bell shaped death curve and updating parameters as actuals come in.  Everything else, hospitalizations, ICUs, etc, are driven by this estimated death curve. In that sense, the model is completely reactive and has no ability to incorporate leading indicators of deaths, which run on a 3 week lag.  So as new death data comes that disagrees with their projected deaths based upon earlier death data, they just keep revising that curve.  It's not shocking it's been so wrong.  

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Keep in mind that the CDC and numerous other 3-letter government agencies, along with a lot of data mining companies,  already track various social media platforms looking for signs of disease outbreaks.    That is a survey that is being rolled out every day, so it will be interesting to match it up with the eventual confirmed cases/deaths maps down the road.  

Edited April 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[NoName 16265]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Need to look at this, but Facebook released a map of folks who claim they have the symptoms/covid.

https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com

 

Texas Map:

Nationwide:

 

 

[Loco 3752]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8795]

 

Random guy touched his arm. Not a good look for social distancing

[Loco 3752]

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Random guy touched his arm. Not a good look for social distancing

yeah I saw that too ..  guy was trying to be supportive and it's just human nature.  like touching your fucking face

[dcar00 14002]

11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes? They were presenting potential scenarios (the Imperial College Report covered doing nothing and a variety of mitigation and suppression strategies). Why did you think they were anything different? What did you think the purpose of the models were if not to advise on how to avoid the worst case scenarios?

Hell, the Imperial College Report was explicit that it didnt think the "do nothing" scenario was a likely outcome. It was just provided for context. From the report:

"Last, it is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous changes in population behaviour even in the absence of government-mandated interventions.  . .

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality . . ."

I really dont understand the need to misrepresent the modeling or the reports. 

how did Imperial get to 2.2M if we did nothing?  I will tell you. they took 330M and multiplied it by the .675% death rate per capita that happened during Spanish Flu. the issue is that wasn't based in reality, not because of shutdown or not, but because that was 100 fucking years ago and our medical system/medicine is orders of magnitude better.  Additionally our society is much "cleaner" than it was then as well.  We(US)are also more spread out in total.

IMO, this was never going to be more than 300K or so. 300K sucks and 300K over 12 months with the majority of that being in the first 4-5 months would have crashed the system in major metro areas and would have caused panic that our society as a whole isn't prepared for.  

Also, we were never going to do absolutely nothing.  people would limit non essential flying, people would stop shaking hands(we already do that today),  schools would close, people would stop going out to eat.

Everyone is complaining that we aren't really shutting down, our feds, governors, city officials are all idiots, non Surly people are idiots, teens/college kids are idiots(this is true) and with that half ass(maybe quarter ass) horribly run at all levels shutdown we are looking at 60K deaths.

Then they actually came out and said that the IHME model lowered to 61K in part because the people in the south social distanced better than they thought they would.  give me a break.  These models started out as bullshit.  The Imperial one was real bullshit. 

I get why we went with the sledgehammer. China fucked us and shortened the runway immensely It was unknown and seemed to be very efficient,  more so than H1N1/Swine.  turns out it is deadly but it isn't close to .675% of the entire population deadly and never was going to be.

Edit: added China fucked us to allow for other potential options.

Edited April 20, 2020 by dcar00

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

non Surly people are idiots

This is a scientific fact.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8795]

how did Imperial get to 2.2M if we did nothing?  I will tell you. they took 330M and multiplied it by the .675% death rate per capita that happened during Spanish Flu. the issue is that wasn't based in reality, not because of shutdown or not, but because that was 100 fucking years ago and our medical system/medicine is orders of magnitude better.  Additionally our society is much "cleaner" than it was then as well.  We(US)are also more spread out in total.
IMO, this was never going to be more than 300K or so. 300K sucks and 300K over 12 months with the majority of that being in the first 4-5 months would have crashed the system in major metro areas and would have caused panic that our society as a whole isn't prepared for.  
Also, we were never going to do absolutely nothing.  people would limit non essential flying, people would stop shaking hands(we already do that today),  schools would close, people would stop going out to eat.
Everyone is complaining that we aren't really shutting down, our feds, governors, city officials are all idiots, non Surly people are idiots, teens/college kids are idiots(this is true) and with that half ass(maybe quarter ass) horribly run at all levels shutdown we are looking at 60K deaths.
Then they actually came out and said that the IHME model lowered to 61K in part because the people in the south social distanced better than they thought they would.  give me a break.  These models started out as bullshit.  The Imperial one was real bullshit. 
I get why we went with the sledgehammer.  It was unknown and seemed to be very efficient,  more so than H1N1/Swine.  turns out it is deadly but it isn't close to .675% of the entire population deadly and never was going to be.
 

Geez let it out

[aggie08 21292]

11 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

I have no issue with those who are protesting because they're broke and out of work and just want the freedom to be able to decide for themselves what risk level they and their family are willing to tolerate. But the This is 'Merica!! blowhards like that cunt can pound sand.

[Schulz2.0 28710]

10 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Random guy touched his arm. Not a good look for social distancing

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

But the This is 'Merica!! blowhards like that cunt can pound sand.

Why do you hate 

[Anastasis 23328]

39 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 

But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

The twatters is the worst. 

[dcar00 14002]

47 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So he simply posts total deaths, but doesn't mention or adjust for Sweden having (had...) a population of 10+ million, versus 5+ million for the others. 

But then the graph wouldn't look as dramatic and wouldn't get as much attention, and, just completely coincidentally, his blue check twitter account is pimping his speaking series ($6000 value for just $297!)

Sweden is obviously not on team "if we can save just one life"....until they do.

[Loco 3752]

11 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I have no issue with those who are protesting because they're broke and out of work and just want the freedom to be able to decide for themselves what risk level they and their family are willing to tolerate. But the This is 'Merica!! blowhards like that cunt can pound sand.

You mention freedom...  we don't have the "freedom" to do a lot of things in the name of public health.  Some entities drive a narrative that some group of individuals WANTS the US to have restrictions like these in place for no reason.   No one wants them, but they are warranted.   So that yowling bitch's impotent rage is the real issue... she clearly has mental health issues, and if they weren't focused on Covid-19 health protocols, you could be sure they would be focused on something similarly "terrible".

[Js1 84995]

Slightly amazed how many people I’ve had to ignore who just want to score points against the experts 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13000]

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

That, and the alleged shutdowns have been about as effective as using a colander for an oilpan on your car motor.

Are you this stupid in real life or is this just an act for Surly. I mean, it’s entertaining.

[Sbbruin 21690]

32 minutes ago, Loco said:

yeah I saw that too ..  guy was trying to be supportive and it's just human nature.  like touching your fucking face

I will say my nose itches more than ever and I feel like I have boogers galore in there.

[Loco 3752]

Don't know if this is good or bad...  Fired by Aggy.....

Quote

Brett Giroir, the federal official overseeing coronavirus testing efforts, says that his experience working on vaccine development projects at Texas A&M University helped prepare him for this historic moment. He once said that his vaccine effort was so vital that “the fate of 50 million people will rely on us getting this done.”

But after eight years of work on several vaccine projects, Giroir was told in 2015 he had 30 minutes to resign or he would be fired. His annual performance evaluation at Texas A&M, the local newspaper reported, said he was “more interested in promoting yourself” than the health science center where he worked.

 

[Loco 3752]

2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I will say my nose itches more than ever and I feel like I have boogers galore in there.

Stay strong! That's how the 'Rona gets ya!

Edited April 20, 2020 by Loco

[Iceman 2621]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

This is incorrect.  It is working, and has been effective.  You’re not going to get 100% participation in anything.  But it has clearly been working.

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

[Dahobbs 17407]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

Nice try but no, that doesn’t support dahobbs’ contention.

But it does? The very thing it models is examples of less than 100% of the population following social distancing rules. It showed a quarter of population not following the rules and an 8th. Either result was significantly better than than the free-for-all scenario. If we reduce contacts in the population by 70%, it is going to have a good effect on the spread of the virus. We don't need perfect, just good. Why would you think otherwise? 

41 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

how did Imperial get to 2.2M if we did nothing?  I will tell you. they took 330M and multiplied it by the .675% death rate per capita that happened during Spanish Flu. the issue is that wasn't based in reality, not because of shutdown or not, but because that was 100 fucking years ago and our medical system/medicine is orders of magnitude better.  Additionally our society is much "cleaner" than it was then as well.  We(US)are also more spread out in total.

IMO, this was never going to be more than 300K or so. 300K sucks and 300K over 12 months with the majority of that being in the first 4-5 months would have crashed the system in major metro areas and would have caused panic that our society as a whole isn't prepared for.  

Also, we were never going to do absolutely nothing.  people would limit non essential flying, people would stop shaking hands(we already do that today),  schools would close, people would stop going out to eat.

Everyone is complaining that we aren't really shutting down, our feds, governors, city officials are all idiots, non Surly people are idiots, teens/college kids are idiots(this is true) and with that half ass(maybe quarter ass) horribly run at all levels shutdown we are looking at 60K deaths.

Then they actually came out and said that the IHME model lowered to 61K in part because the people in the south social distanced better than they thought they would.  give me a break.  These models started out as bullshit.  The Imperial one was real bullshit. 

I get why we went with the sledgehammer.  It was unknown and seemed to be very efficient,  more so than H1N1/Swine.  turns out it is deadly but it isn't close to .675% of the entire population deadly and never was going to be.

 

You've never read the Imperial College Report, have you? (1) It wasn't a simple exercise in arithmetic, but an individual-based simulation model (think a really complex Sim City); (2) the assumed IFR wasn't based on the 1918 pandemic, but on the available data from China on Sars-Cov-2; (3) as I pointed in my previous post, the Imperial College Report explicitly said that it didn't view the "do-nothing" scenario as a likely outcome (precisely because even in the absence of government mandate, people would change their behavior; and (4) the IHME model is more mathematical wizardry than the Imperial College Model, as it basically comes down to fitting new data into a pre-determined curve. Frankly, I don't think anyone should put much faith in the IHME model at all. It is an interesting, but unproven experiment. 

Here is the Imperial College Report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Here is a pretty detailed explanation of the underlying model (from prior work): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095311/bin/41586_2006_BFnature04795_MOESM28_ESM.pdf

Overview:

• Take detailed data on the geographic distribution of population
• Seed model with population
• Model individual home, work, school, and travel patterns using census and other data;
• Create transmission model (stochastic, spatially structured individual-based simulation), basically chance of transmission is determined by the amount of time any individual is in close contact to an infected person contact; (SEIR model, susceptible, exposed, infected, and resistant);
• Seed with a # of infected individuals;
• Let the simulated people do their thing and see what happens. 

Here is the underlying study used to estimate the IFR: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

Are you just making this up or do you really.......... see people everywhere ?  Maybe there's a movie in there somewhere....

 

 

[Foosters 17688]

Yeah, I just drove to work after my 14 day quarantine ended. The freeways are, again, totally empty.  Maybe Iceman has seen some statistics that back up his argument, but my experience is that there are far fewer people out and about every day.

[pacman 7282]

7 minutes ago, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

You keep saying "they aren't" based on some anecdotal event you witnessed but do the metrics support your position?

Look at traffic.

Read about insurance rebates in the millions for less frequent driving.

Etc.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard#scoreboard

We aren't perfect but have clearly, drastically reduced our interactions.

Edited April 20, 2020 by pacman

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13000]

7 minutes ago, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

Link?

[aggie08 21292]

4 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Are you just making this up or do you really.......... see people everywhere ?  Maybe there's a movie in there somewhere....

 

 

What slorch sees when he looks out his window is not a movie that I want to watch.

[huge 3787]

People in Houston are behaving for the most part.  That's my anecdotal contribution for the day.

[Iceman 2621]

16 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Are you just making this up or do you really.......... see people everywhere ?  Maybe there's a movie in there somewhere....

 

 

You’ve been out in town at virtually any grocery store or convenience store at all?  Maybe YOU’re the one following the rules.  Lolz.  Thank you!

 

Maybe it’s because that’s what I do all day, every day.   It’s hard to believe any of this could be considered a shut down with regard to human interaction.  And measuring it’s ‘success’ is almost impossible, as we have a minimal understanding about how many people actually have the virus.  It’s like having a victory celebration at the end of the first quarter.

I don’t trust the death count attributed to CV-19 either, but wth  does that matter in the grand scheme of things?

Edited April 20, 2020 by Iceman

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

27 minutes ago, Iceman said:

You’ve been out in town at virtually any grocery store or convenience store at all?  Maybe YOU’re the one following the rules.  Lolz.  Thank you!

 

Maybe it’s because that’s what I do all day, every day.   It’s hard to believe any of this could be considered a shut down with regard to human interaction.  And measuring it’s ‘success’ is almost impossible, as we have a minimal understanding about how many people actually have the virus.  It’s like having a victory celebration at the end of the first quarter.

I don’t trust the death count attributed to CV-19 either, but wth  does that matter in the grand scheme of things?

Yeah, I'm going out, but staying away from folks, wearing a mask/gloves in Lowes, etc.  I see less people everywhere.

Stores (large and small) are closed, restaurants are closed, all sporting events have been cancelled,  concerts have been cancelled, movies, flights, cruises, vacations, resorts, church services, elective surgeries, club meetings etc.  

How you think there are people everywhere is just not being very observant.

Now Friday I did see a car cruise in event (which gave me a smile). There were probably 8-12 cars, and everyone was social distancing in their lawn chairs.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[huge 3787]

7 minutes ago, Iceman said:

  It’s hard to believe any of this could be considered a shut down with regard to human interaction.

Where do you live?  Houston is at least 60% fewer cars on the road.  And outside of grocery and liquor and gas stations pretty much everything is closed.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

5 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Stores (large and small) are closed, restaurants are closed, all sporting events have been cancelled,  concerts have been cancelled, movies, flights, cruises, vacations, resorts, etc

Big if true.

[utee94 15733]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah, I'm going out, but staying away from folks, wearing a mask/gloves in Lowes, etc.  I see less people everywhere.

Stores (large and small) are closed, restaurants are closed, all sporting events have been cancelled,  concerts have been cancelled, movies, flights, cruises, vacations, resorts, etc.  

How you think there are people everywhere is just not being very observant.

I mean, there's not ZERO people.  But if iceman can't tell that it's FAR fewer than normal, I'm not sure what to say about his powers of observation.

He's certainly right that there's no way to know exactly how much we're helping, how much disaster has been averted.  There are scientific ways we can analyze the data to form hypotheses, but it's true that we'll never know for sure.

 

[GringoSalado 1649]

Well if all you do is hang out at grocery stores then yeah, there is no shutdown.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

there's no way to know exactly how much we're helping, how much disaster has been averted.  There are scientific ways we can analyze the data

I might know someone who has insight here...

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I mean, there's not ZERO people.  But if iceman can't tell that it's FAR fewer than normal, I'm not sure what to say about his powers of observation.

He's certainly right that there's no way to know exactly how much we're helping, how much disaster has been averted.  There are scientific ways we can analyze the data to form hypotheses, but it's true that we'll never know for sure.

 

He should have watched Sesame Street more as a child.

Yeah, maybe we don't have the death tolls without social distancing . I guess looking at Sweden (? ) maybe we'll get a glimpse of what could have been.

[EuroHorn 3204]

Downtown Atlanta has been a ghost town. Midtown has a few more people on the streets but definitely much lower than normal. People on the sidewalks are pretty good at moving to the sides or into the streets to maintain distancing.  You can actually run down Peachtree Street during the week without worrying about car traffic.  Usually that’s only accomplished during the Peachtree road race. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by EuroHorn

[freyguy 4243]

4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I mean, there's not ZERO people.  But if iceman can't tell that it's FAR fewer than normal, I'm not sure what to say about his powers of observation.

He's certainly right that there's no way to know exactly how much we're helping, how much disaster has been averted.  There are scientific ways we can analyze the data to form hypotheses, but it's true that we'll never know for sure.

 

It could be that as he goes back and forth from his parents' basement to the fridge, he truly doesn't see a difference in the number of people he normally has a social interaction with on a daily basis.